Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 181750 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1150 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
A mix of MVFR/VFR flight categories will remain ongoing through
much of today and into tonight, thanks to varying ceilings across
the region. Winds today will be gusty from the south and
southwest, especially across the Delta where winds will be
sustained near 30 knots at times, and gusting to near 40 knots.
Behind this evening`s front, winds will become breezy from the
northwest as they become sustained around 15 knots and gusting to
25-30 knots at times. These will subside to around 10 knots
towards day break Sunday. Skies will also begin to clear from
northwest to southeast during the overnight hours in the wake of
the cold front. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front remains progged to rapidly shift southeast into and
through the forecast area late this afternoon into early this
evening.  With some capping in place across the CWA ahead of the
front, showers ahead of it through the course of much of the
afternoon look to remain of the isolated to scattered variety. Thus,
with the best forcing along the front, the better rain chances for
today will be along to just behind it.

In addition, instability remains rather weak across the CWA ahead of
the front.  However, deep shear is rather stout.  While severe
storms currently aren`t expected to accompany this front, an
isolated storm or two could be strong and produce some 40-50 mph
wind gusts.  The better potential for this currently looks to be
across far north central and northeast portions of the CWA late this
afternoon into early this evening along the front.

Overall, the remainder of today`s forecast looks to be in pretty good
shape.  I adjusted most elements of the forecast to account for
ongoing trends.  Perhaps the most notable change made was to the
timing of POPs across the forecast area and taking into account a
blend of several high-res models to aid in the process.  That said,
POPs across the board were`t adjusted too much above the previous
forecast.

In addition, no changes to the ongoing Wind Advisory will be made on
the update.  The tight pressure gradient across the CWA will result
in continued gusty winds through the course of today and into this
evening.  Winds will continue to be most gusty across the Delta
region. /19/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight: Warm advection stratus has overspread the
majority of the forecast area this morning ahead of a cold front
quickly diving south out of the Central Plains. Very little in the
way of precipitation falling out of the shallow ascent of yet, but
that should change as the boundary encounters the deeper moisture in
place over the lower MS valley later today. Not looking for much
more than showers with the frontal passage as mid level warmth
should limit deeper convective development.

Despite the cloud cover, max temperatures today should still be able
to reach well into the 70s as temperatures are already in the
mid/upper 60s over the western two thirds. Near stationary high
pressure along the east coast and low pressure moving across the MS
valley has resulted in a strengthening gradient with some rather
gusty winds, primarily over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Have
expanded the wind advisory south to catch the remaining portions of
the Delta and extended it until 9 pm as post frontal wind speeds
remain up until mid evening./26/

Sunday through Friday night: Cooler air will settle in over the
ArkLaMiss on Sunday with highs in the 50s for most of the area.
With the surface high moving across the area Sunday night expect
cold H925 temps, clear skies and strong radiational cooling to
allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s and low 30s across
the area. The coldest temperatures will be over the northeastern
portions of the area. This cool air will hang around through
Monday with highs in the 50s once again, before the surface high
shifts to the east and southerly flow returns Monday night and
Tuesday.

With southerly flow and high pressure continuing, Tuesday will be a
nice day with highs in the mid/upper 60s with just a slight chance
of showers. A deep upper trough and associated dry cold front will
move across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with cooler temps
returning. High pressure will prevail on Wednesday and on
Thanksgiving, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s each day.
The surface high will shift to the east on Friday with warmer
temperatures in the 60s. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  40  59  32 /  68  22   0   0
Meridian      76  41  58  29 /  50  69   0   0
Vicksburg     80  41  59  31 /  52   2   0   0
Hattiesburg   81  43  59  31 /  19  70   0   0
Natchez       79  41  59  31 /  48   8   0   0
Greenville    76  39  55  30 /  52   0   0   0
Greenwood     74  38  55  28 /  63   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034>036-040>042-047.

LA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ARZ074-075.


&&


$$

19



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