Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 210556

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1156 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Updated for 06Z aviation discussion


06Z TAF discussion:
A large area of SHRA will continue to progress east across the
ArkLaMiss overnight into early Tuesday. Mostly MVFR category
ceilings/vsbys will accompany the rain with occasional IFR vsbys
in heavier downpours. As the upper low center moves across Tuesday
into Tuesday evening, scattered shower activity will continue.


Local radars showed the leading edge of a large area of moderate
rain with a few embedded thunderstorms from just west of
Brookhaven to just east of Greenville. This area of rain will
continue to shift east tonight as the closed low over northeast
Texas drops east southeast. Have updated the forecast to increase
pops areawide as the rain will move into east Mississippi before
daybreak. Temperatures along and ahead of the rain were running
warmer than expected while temperatures west of the Mississippi
river were knocked cooler than expected. Have increased morning
lows in a few spots east of I-55 but forecast lows looked good
elsewhere. /22/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Tuesday...It has been another warm day across the
ArkLaMiss region as temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
and some lower 80s through early afternoon. It is possible for
some records to be tied or broken across the region before peak
heating subsides. Area radars show a large swath of mainly rain,
with some embedded thunderstorms, remaining just to our west
across central Louisiana but these have very slowly been moving
toward our region. Additional showers are developing ahead of this
swath of rain this afternoon.

This activity comes as the upper ridge slowly slides east of the
ArkLaMiss region. As this occurs, an upper level trough will dig
south through across the Texas panhandle. A surface low, located
over the Manitoba Province, will deepen and track east across
Ontario Province. As this occurs, the attendant cold front will
slowly track toward our region, on the western edge of the upper
ridge. Moisture, as characterized by roughly 1.4-1.7 inch PW values,
will accompany this front and bring showers and some thunderstorms
to our region later this afternoon through Tuesday. Coverage of
showers should increase later this evening into the overnight hours.
Hi-res guidance shows a main line of showers and some storms pushing
through the area overnight, exiting in the east. Behind this, some
additional showers will be possible as the upper low cuts off across
north central Texas overnight and travels south across our CWA
during the day Tuesday. Overall, think the lower amounts of
instability should limit much of the convective nature of this
rainfall and limit some of the risk for flash flooding. Therefore,
have opted not to include mention in the HWO or graphics. However,
if rates do end up being higher than anticipated, there could be
some localized flooding issues despite the dry pattern we have been
in for almost a week. Overall, there could be around 1-2 inches in
the heaviest of rain.

Given increasing clouds, moisture and rain, temperatures tonight
will only drop into the upper 50s or lower 60s. Highs tomorrow will
warm into the mid/upper 60s and some lower 70s, especially in areas
that are able to warm outside of rain. /28/

Tuesday night through Early next week...Rain chances will begin
to decrease from west to east on Tuesday night as the closed low
progresses further Southeast into the Gulf of Mexico. There could
be a few light showers in the area on Wednesday morning due to
wrap around moisture from the low. Upper ridging will begin to
take place on Wednesday with low level southerly flow returning by
Thursday. Temperatures will remain above normal through the work
week but could again approach 80 degrees on Thursday and Friday.

An upper trough will begin to progress westward across the Plains
late in the work week, further amplifying as it nears the MS
Valley Region. A cold front associated with this trough will begin
to advance through the ArkLaMiss during the on Friday. However,
not before temperatures throughout the region climb well above
average. Models are trending drier with this frontal passage.
Removed most mention of PoPs on Friday with the exception a few
counties in East Mississippi. Cooler, drier air will begin to
filter into the region behind the front, making for a cooler
Saturday. The upper level ridging and southerly flow regime will
return on Sunday and last through the early portions of next week
resulting in the continuing theme of an abnormally warm February.
Models hint at rain chances returning early next week also as
another shortwave trough begins to approach the region. /jpm3/


Jackson       59  69  55  74 /  99  79  31  15
Meridian      59  68  56  74 /  90  94  47  18
Vicksburg     59  69  54  74 / 100  70  30  10
Hattiesburg   61  70  54  75 /  96  86  30  18
Natchez       59  69  55  72 / 100  68  31  11
Greenville    58  68  55  73 / 100  68  25  10
Greenwood     59  69  56  74 / 100  80  31  13




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