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000
FXUS64 KJAN 130207 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
807 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WITH
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER THIS RIDGE AND PERIODICALLY FILTERING THE
STARS THIS EVENING. A MORE SOLID SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS STILL REMAINS
WELL TO THE WEST OVER EAST TEXAS AND LIKELY WILL NOT REACH THE
ARKLAMISS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT TO CALM ACROSS
THE AREA... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST LOWS STILL APPEAR TO
BE ON TRACK... ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE VERY MUCH CONTINGENT ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE EAST...WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR THE
CLOUDS TO ARRIVE. ONLY MINOR UPDATES WILL BE MADE TONIGHT...
INCLUDING AN ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COVER TO DELAY THE MORE APPRECIABLE
INCREASE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AERODROME THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING
TO START THE GRADUAL LOWERING AND THICKENING PROCESS. AN INCOMING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVEN A FEW EMBEDDED
STORMS TO THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT RAIN ONLY LOOKS TO HAVE A
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING TO KGLH BEFORE DARK TOMORROW. FLIGHT
CATS SHOULD BE ALL VFR UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT WHEN MVFR/IFR WILL
DOMINATE WITH THE INCLEMENT WEATHER. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND RATHER VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AND BLOW 10 TO 15 MPH AT TIMES. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...WITH RAIN MOVING
INTO WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE
SHOULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW 40S SOUTHEAST. /27/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER
WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ESSENTIALLY SQUEEZING OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE OVER
THE CWA. AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BUILD INTO THE REGION...SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AS ANOTHER DOSE OF COLD DRY AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE ARKLAMISS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL BECOME POSITIONED TO OUR EAST AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY MODERATE UP THROUGH THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS THE COOLER OF THE TWO. AFTER TAKING A LOOK AT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MODELS...EACH DO FAVOR A GRADUAL TREND UP
IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WHAT THE OPERATIONS MODELS SUGGESTS.
THEREFORE...I`LL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. /19/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/BB/27/19