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000
FXUS64 KJAN 251527 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1027 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. A WEAK FRONT HAS BEEN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER GENERALLY THE HIGHWAY
84 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THIS REGION. LOCAL MICROBURST ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS ARE PRETTY LOW TODAY DUE
TO POOR LAPSE RATES...MARGINAL DCAPE AND LOWER SBCAPE. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS
EVIDENT ON THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS A PW VALUE OF 1.25
INCHES. SOUNDINGS AT LOCATIONS EVEN FURTHER NORTH SHOW PW VALUES
AROUND 0.5 INCHES TO 1 INCH IN LZK AND OHX. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES DRIER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE 91-94 DEGREE RANGE AND THIS DRIER AIR
WILL HELP CONDITIONS FEEL CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE(EXCEPT IN
THE SOUTH WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER AND HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 90S). GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT NEAR KHBG. IF CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ON STATION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH 09Z SAT.
AFTER 09Z SAT...MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DOTTING SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR MY
SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE THERE WILL
BE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE FROM MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING
SOUTH AND INTO THE REGION.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL AGAIN INCREASE
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS AS THEY WARM INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE
90S TODAY...THEN THE MIDDLE 90S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S AND THEN THE LOW AND
MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY NIGHT. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 90S. CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
DRIVE THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS ON SUNDAY/MONDAY BUT CUT BELOW
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  67  95  73 /   3   6   4   5
MERIDIAN      91  65  94  72 /   4   7   5   5
VICKSBURG     92  66  94  71 /   2   5   3   6
HATTIESBURG   93  72  94  74 /  22   9   9   7
NATCHEZ       91  70  92  73 /   8   5   5   6
GREENVILLE    91  67  95  74 /   2   4   3   5
GREENWOOD     91  64  94  73 /   3   4   3   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/22/19/15