Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 070910
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH EXITING EAST OF THE CWA. THIS HAD
TAKEN THE HIGH CLOUDS EAST OF THE CWA AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. ON THE SURFACE A 1030 MB HIGH WAS
BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. AS WE GO
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOP A STRONG DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WAS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT SOME COLD STRATOCU TO PUSH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST PORT OF CWA FROM AROUND THE LARGE CLOSED LOW. SOME OF THE
SHORT TERM HI-RES LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE PRIOR TO DAWN ON MONDAY
SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH. THERE
ARE ONLY DRY MODEL POPS FOR TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
EXIT EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S. LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO
AROUND 30./17/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE THE AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. THIS MEANS THAT
THE EXPECTED MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR THROUGH THE
WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...HOWEVER AS
FLOW DOES BEGIN TO RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE DROPPING SE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW BEGINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO OK/TX BY FRIDAY
MORNING...MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAINS BREAKING OUT OVER AR. THE WEAK SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE IN THE FLOW...AS IT DOES SO...LIGHT
ISENTROPIC RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER N MS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAYS TO THE EAST SATURDAY...BUT ITS TRAILING WEAK
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM THIS MORNING AND
AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FROST ARE EXPECTED. FOR TODAY NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BE GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT GLH/GWO./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  37  48  28 /   0   2   4   2
MERIDIAN      58  34  48  26 /   0   3   7   4
VICKSBURG     59  38  49  30 /   0   2   4   1
HATTIESBURG   60  34  51  28 /   0   2   3   2
NATCHEZ       59  38  49  30 /   0   1   3   1
GREENVILLE    58  37  46  29 /   0   4   3   3
GREENWOOD     58  36  45  28 /   0   5   7   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/26


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