Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 072033
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE CU WAS PREVALENT OVER THE MAJORITY OF
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
LIKELY BEEN ENHANCED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE
INFUSION AS WELL AS 40-50 KNOT 300 MB JET STREAK PASSING OVER THE
AREA.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT LIMITED THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS SUBSIDENCE/WARMING INCREASES FROM THE EAST AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN. UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS LOOK TO MIX DOWN WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL CAUSE PARCELS TO STRUGGLE MORE COMPARED TO TODAY...THUS
NOT EXPECTING ANY DEVELOPMENT. BY THURSDAY...LOW TO MID 70S
DEWPOINTS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ORIENTED E-W ACROSS S MS BY THE
WEEKEND AND WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS/LESS CONVERGENCE AND ONLY A
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR RIVER CHANNELS WHERE
LOCALIZED DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW NW FLOW...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS TO RETURN./26/


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY COME CLOSE TO JAN..HKS...MEI AND GWO BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
ADDED VCSH FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GO VCTS.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH MOST CEILINGS
REMAINING ABOUT 3KFT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT./7/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  93  73  93 /  11  10  11  13
MERIDIAN      72  93  72  93 /  12  10  10  17
VICKSBURG     74  93  73  93 /  11  10   8   9
HATTIESBURG   73  94  72  93 /  11  10   8  23
NATCHEZ       75  92  74  92 /  11  10   6  14
GREENVILLE    75  91  73  93 /  14  10  10   7
GREENWOOD     75  92  73  93 /  14  10   8  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/07



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