Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 181713 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1113 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion. Also tweaked the short-term
forecast to adjust for latest observational trends, but no major
changes to the current forecast for today.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions with light and variable winds expected at all TAF
sites through the period. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight:

Modifying Arctic high pressure in the atmospheric low levels is
sitting right atop the Lower Mississippi Valley early this morning
and promoting light winds and associated good radiational cooling
conditions given clear skies. The previous forecasts of lows this
morning ranging from 10 to 15 are basically on track with isolated
spots along and north of I-20 probably dipping just down below 10
degrees by sunrise. Records lows are reachable at GWO and HBG and
a new record of at least down to 11 has already been set at TVR.
We will likely send official updates on records later this
morning.

For today, the cold air mass will be starting to slowly weaken its
hold on the region with warming temperatures aloft allowing for a
much quicker (in comparison to yesterday) warmup after sunrise.
Full sun and light winds will yield decent mixing and nearly all
areas, aside from maybe portions of the Arklamiss Delta, will get
above freezing by noon. But even spots in the Arklamiss Delta
should manage to top out at least several degrees above freezing
by the afternoon. We inherited a hard freeze warning expiring at
noon and will stick with that given expectations allowing for good
area-wide thawing by that time (or very shortly thereafter).

Even though the modifying high pressure center will be starting to
the shift to the east tonight the air mass will remain very dry
and winds light, again promoting good radiational cooling. There
will probably be some scattered low to mid layer clouds
approaching from the southwest late at night, but not quickly
enough to ward off maximum theoretical cooling in most areas. Lows
were dropped a bit in comparison to the previous forecast in many
spots with upper teens likely at least across a big chunk of
eastern MS. Despite these relatively cold low temperatures we will
refrain from issuing another hard freeze warning considering
because the warming daytime highs do not meet one of two-prong
threshold criteria. /BB/

Friday through next Wednesday...Warmer and overall quiet conditions
currently look to persist Friday and into the upcoming weekend.
Highs during this time will steadily climb from the upper 40s and
middle 50s of Friday, and into the low and upper 60s come Sunday.
Lows meanwhile will also follow suit as they climb from the upper
20s to upper 30s Saturday morning, into the lower 40s and around 50
early Sunday morning.

Increasing warm advection and moisture Saturday into Sunday, will
result in increasing clouds during the weekend.  While some mainly
light warm advection-type showers are possible west of the
Mississippi River by Sunday afternoon, rain chances areawide will
significantly increase from west to east across the forecast area
Sunday evening through Monday morning.  This will be as a result of
a cold front racing west to east through the CWA during this time.

It continues to look like there will be some potential for
thunderstorm activity with this front, primarily along it.  While
deep wind shear continues to look adequate with the system,
instability remains too meager at the moment to have enough
confidence in any of these storms being severe.  This is still
several days out, and will continue to be monitored.

The cold front and associated rainfall looks to exit the region
through the course of the afternoon Monday.  High pressure will
quickly build into the CWA in its wake. This will result in clearing
skies late Monday and into Tuesday. Highs both days will generally
range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows currently look to range in
the low to upper 30s both Monday and Tuesday mornings.  Quiet
weather continues on Wednesday, with some mid and high clouds
increasing a bit over the region, and slightly cooler afternoon
temperatures. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       41  21  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      42  19  51  29 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     39  21  51  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   43  20  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       42  23  52  38 /   0   0   0   4
Greenville    37  21  47  36 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     38  20  49  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST today for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST today for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Hard Freeze Warning until noon CST today for ARZ074-075.


&&


$$

06/19/BB



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