727
FXUS64 KJAN 151135
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
635 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Overall, the primary concerns for this forecast will be the
dangerous levels of heat stress through mid week, and then an
increasing threat for heavy rainfall as we go into late week and the
weekend.

Today through Tonight: Quiet weather conditions are expected across
our CWA this morning as near term guidance continues to show a
1020mb sfc high gradually pushing northeast across the southeast
CONUS. Much of our CWA will not see convection but isolated
afternoon storms cannot be ruled out in the far northwest and across
the southeast. Humid conditions will persist across the area thanks
to this sfc high which will lead to dangerous heat concerns across
the region. Areas along and west of a line from Greenwood to Jackson
to Laurel, MS will have the best potential to see heat index
readings between 106-110 degrees. As a result, A heat advisory will
go into effect today for the aforementioned areas.  No changes have
been made and the "Elevated" risk for dangerous heat stress will
continue to be advertised. Afternoon highs will peak into the mid to
upper 90s areawide. /CR/22/SW/EC/

Wednesday through Sunday: Dangerous heat with triple digit heat
indices will continue into Wednesday and Thursday as the surface
high remains over the southeast CONUS. As this high continues to
hover over the region, humid conditions will persist across our CWA.
Rain chances will start to increase across eastern portions of our
forecast area thanks to northeasterly moist boundary layer
advection. Elsewhere, areas west of I-55 will remain fairly dry. The
warming trend will continue into Thursday with afternoon highs in
the mid/upper 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s possibly reaching 80
degrees. While multiple areas across our entire forecast area will
have the best potential to see heat index readings in the 106-110
range, there are a few isolated spots west of I-55 that could see
heat indices greater than 110 degrees. At this time, no changes were
made to the dangerous heat graphic for the Wednesday and Thursday
and the "Elevated" and "Limited" risk will continue to be
advertised. Over the next couple of days, the heat graphic may have
to include a "Significant" risk area for the Delta and NE LA
parishes along with additional heat advisories.

Concerning the potential for impacts from a developing tropical
system: the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now indicating a
medium probability (increase to 40%) for tropical cyclone
development near the northern Gulf Coast. With tropical moisture
pushing into our region and PWATs in the 90th percentiles, the
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is still indicating a "Slight" risk
for excessive rainfall for Friday and Saturday. There is a high
ceiling for rainfall amounts that will be largely conditional on the
level of organization and track of this potential system. Much of
the ensemble guidance indicates the system will trend farther south
with a heavy rainfall axis primarily impacting LA while skirting our
western and southern areas. There is a sizeable contingent of
guidance that pulls the threat more eastward and up the I-55
corridor. With forecast confidence still relatively low in the whole
scenario, will hold off on more formal flood threat messaging, but
will continue to highlight a more general heavy rainfall threat,
especially for southern/western areas. All interests in the area
should continue to monitor for updates as we go through the next few
days. CR/SW/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail through the
forecast period. Diurnal TSRA coverage will be very limited. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  75  97  76 /  10   0  10  20
Meridian      96  74  97  74 /  10  10  20  20
Vicksburg     95  76  97  76 /  10   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   97  77  97  75 /  20  10  50  40
Natchez       94  74  96  75 /  10   0  10  10
Greenville    94  75  96  76 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     95  76  98  77 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

SW/22/CR/EC/