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000
FXUS64 KJAN 261755
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1255 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 24-hr TAF period. Winds
will remain mainly light and from the NE throughout the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures will continue to climb over the next few hours
following a rare cool late June morning where temperatures fell
into the upper 50`s at a few of our northeastern sites such as
Starkville and Columbus. A few light showers were depicted on
radar just north of the JAN CWA, however coverage will continue to
decrease, leaving JAN counties dry. Temperatures will peak in the
mid to upper 80`s today, a few degrees below average. No
significant changes were made to the forecast.

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight:

Starting out this morning, prime radiational cooling conditions
have allowed a few isolated patches of fog to develop - mainly
in some of the river drainages across central Mississippi.
Experimental GOES-16 satellite imagery (10.3-3.9 micron) shows these
areas quite well. Visibility could drop as low as 1 to 2 miles in
these foggy patches. Any fog should quickly burn off after sunrise
as light northeast winds and daytime heating mix out the low-level
moisture. Today will feel quite pleasant for this time of year. A
cooler and drier airmass will continue to settle across the region
in the wake of the last "cold" front. Temperatures have dropped into
the low 60s early this morning, with even a 59 degree reading seen
already at Starkville. Highs will be mostly in the mid to upper
80s. Light winds generally less than 10 mph from the northeast
and afternoon humidity values in the 35 to 45 percent range will
round out this nice late June forecast. Some mid-level and high
clouds will filter across the region as a shortwave passes to our
north, and lows tonight will be similarly cool./NF/

Tuesday into the weekend:

Our region will start out the period a little cooler and drier
than average with a somewhat diffuse front stalled near southern
zones. This boundary could kick up a few isolated storms in the
afternoon Tuesday while the rest of the region enjoys a good
amount of sun and highs in the upper 80s. The front should really
start to break up Tuesday night with deeper southerly flow
initiating. However, radiational cooling should still be pretty
good over the bulk of the region through the night and low
temperatures by early Wednesday morning will again be below normal
at most sites.

On Wednesday the air mass will really start changing as deep
moisture starts coming back into the region from the south in
earnest. A weak upper level low in the vicinity will work with the
regime and building instability in the afternoon to generate
isolated to scattered showers and storms later in the day, but
mainly along and south of Interstate Twenty. As has been the case
most of the summer, highs will struggle (or fail) to hit 90 in
most areas.

Late in the work week deep moisture will have totally recovered
across the whole of the Lower Mississippi Valley and humidity will
be back in force. Although the upper low will be much more
diffuse and hard to pin point, model consensus still suggests a
weakness persisting overhead between the subtropical ridge axis
aloft encroaching from the south. Chances for mainly afternoon
showers and storms will be generally well above normal both
Thursday and Friday, especially over southern and eastern zones of
the forecast area. Of course the clouds and afternoon rains will
work to hold temperatures down at least slightly below average
although low temperatures will solidly return to the muggy 70 to
74 degree range.

Uncertainty in the forecast starts increasing greatly going into
the coming weekend. Latest loose model consensus now suggests the
aforementioned northward building subtropical ridge axis will try
to consolidate over the southern Plains by this time with a
portion of northern stream trough energy dropping down the
backside of the feature (and into portions of the Deep South).
Locations underneath the eastern fringes of the deep anticyclonic
flow associated with the ridge could really start to heat up.
There is some potential this eastern fringe could extend into our
western zones while the more unsettled pattern just to the east
helps promote continued above normal thunderstorm chances in
portions of eastern MS. This scenario was represented in some
fashion in the official forecast but was not expressed fully owing
to mentioned uncertainty. For example, it is entirely possible
the eastern extent of ridging may not ever build east into any
portion of our region and this result would bring the whole area
continued above normal rain chances and at least slightly below
average temperatures. Hopefully this question mark will be
resolved in the next day or so. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  65  89  66 /   1   2   5   3
Meridian      86  64  88  64 /   1   2   3   2
Vicksburg     87  66  89  67 /   1   3   7   3
Hattiesburg   86  66  89  67 /   1   2  12   8
Natchez       86  67  88  68 /   1   3  15   7
Greenville    87  65  87  67 /   2   2   4   1
Greenwood     86  64  87  65 /   2   2   2   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

JPM3