Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 120540
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WARMER...MOIST AIR WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F TO THE LOW 60S HAVE
STAYED NEAR THE COAST...AND THIS IS WHERE SOME SEA FOG IS FORMING.
HOWEVER...SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
WIDESPREAD SEA FOG NEAR THE COAST...WITH TAF SITES DEALING MORE
WITH A COMBINATION FOG EVENT. THUS...FURTHER INLAND...WITH CLEAR
SKIES...AIR TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING HAVE
FINALLY COOLED BELOW DEW POINT CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES...AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONDENSE INTO FOG AND
STRATUS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA.
KLCH VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWS WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 12/09Z.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME MIXING TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN LIFR/IFR/MVFR.

CLOSER TO SUNRISE...GRADIENT DOES RELAX ENOUGH THAT A MORE
CONSISTENT FOG WITH VISIBILITIES STAYING IN THE LIFR/IFR RANGE
THROUGH ABOUT 12/15Z. AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH COOLING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO FORM
AT KAEX.

EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AROUND 12/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH JUST A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...THE MAIN AFFECT FROM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CNTL
GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A WRLY/SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED JUST NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING ALONG THE
ERN SEA BOARD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWRLY
FLOW OVER THE CNTL CONUS...WHILE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE WRN
CONUS. JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS IS NOTED ACCOMPANYING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE ARKLATEX...OTHERWISE THE DEEP DRY
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES.
REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WITH OUR
CURRENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. RISING DEWPOINTS WILL LEND TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
FOG OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER FLY IN THE OINTMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP US IN MORE OF A STRATUS SET UP.

THE COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SWD TOWARD THE
AREA TONIGHT...GRADUALLY OOZING THROUGH AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH WRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP
MOISTURE FROM INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY SO STILL LOOKING AT A DRY
FROPA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IS PROGGED TO HELP
SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY SO
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH.

MARINE...
COULD SEE SOME CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS BEHIND EACH OF OUR FROPA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  72  40  55 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  53  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  55  73  47  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  54  75  48  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07


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