Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 020222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
922 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE NIGHT OF WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ATTM... MORNING LOWS LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S ACRS CNTRL LA AND THE LAKES REGION IN SE
TX... MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 80 AT THE
COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CSTL WTRS AND ALONG THE COAST
THRU THE OVRNGHT HRS W/ A BIT OF FOG XPCD TWRDS SR ELSEWHERE.

TMRW WILL SEE THE CHANGES TOWARDS FALL... AND A END TO THE INDIAN
SUMMER BY FRIDAY... OH WELL THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN SOONER OR LATER.
TMRW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE SPILLING
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
CNTRL TX BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE THE NOON HOUR. CHCS WILL INCR INTO THE AFTN
AND FINALLY INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AHEAD OF THE FROPA. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY THEREFORE RAINFALL TOTALS SHLD RMN UNDER
TWO INCHES ALTHOUGH A FEW LCTNS MAY GET A BIT MORE. THERE LOOKS TO
BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHC FOR ANY ONE STORM TO BECOME SEVERE EARLY
FRIDAY MRNG AHEAD OF THE FROPA. BEST SVR POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE IN
AND AROUND ARKANSAS/ MISSOURI AND EASTWARD.

THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE REGION... THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP GREAT...
CLR SKIES... LOW RH... NORTH WINDS... AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE 80 BY THE AFTN HRS BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU AND CONVECTION COMING TO AN END...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LT SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS EXPECTED. CIGS WILL LIFT
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW -SHRA DEVELOPING. SHRA/TSRA TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE SCT BY AFTN AND CARRIED VCTS AT ALL SITES
AFTER 17Z. SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KT THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REGION
IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FRONTAL LIFT...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITH THE STORMS.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL END SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AND SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT A COUPLE OF VERY NICE
FALL DAYS...WITH COOL NIGHTS AND COMFORTABLE DAYS.

RETURN FLOW AND A SLOW WARM-UP WILL THEN START EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  87  74  85  57 /  20  50  70  40  10
KBPT  78  88  74  85  58 /  20  40  70  40  10
KAEX  73  88  71  84  52 /  20  40  70  20   0
KLFT  75  87  75  86  55 /  30  50  60  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$






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