Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 271755
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, LEAVING
A FEW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF OVER THE ACADIANA AIRPORTS NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ALTOCU AND CIRRUS
CANOPY DUE TO LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE POLAR JET WILL COMBINING WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AEX AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND MIDNIGHT TNITE AT AEX...CLOSER TO
MORNING AT LCH, BPT, AND ARA. LOWERING POSSIBLY TO LIFR AT ARA DUE
TO THE WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS THERE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING UPDATE THIS MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POORLY
REPRESENT QLCS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HRRR IS THE CLOSEST TO THE
TRUTH...BUT STILL LACKING IN BOTH TIMING AND SCOPE. THIS LACK OF
A DECENT MODEL TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS WITH RESULTED IN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FORECASTER EDITING. INITIALLY WAS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
STILL DEPARTING QLCS...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NEW CELLS HAVE POPPED UP OVER EAST TX DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
SO...FORMING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW/CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP THROUGH THE DAY. BOTH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM THEIR CURRENT RELATIVELY
COOL READINGS...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO IN THE MID 80S.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF...KEEPING A SE FLOW. ALOFT...THE NEXT PERTUBATION HAS
PRODUCED YET ANOTHER MCS ACROSS NE TX...MOVING SE AT 15-20 MPH...WITH
THE EASTERN EDGE ENTERING NW LA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED A BIT THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LINE HAS SHOW A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...AND WILL LIKELY BE ENTERING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES BY 5-6 AM...AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS TOLEDO BEND INTO W LA BY 8 AM. OTHER THAN THE
HRRR...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE REALLY SHOWS THIS FEATURE MUCH AT ALL
LET ALONE IN THE CORRECT PLACE. THE LATEST HRRR STILL TOO FAR
NORTH...KEEPING THE PRECIP JUST NORTH. SO...HAD TO MANUALLY CREATE
QPF/POP GRIDS THIS MORNING TO SHOW REALITY...AND INCREASED POPS
ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN MCS LIKELY TO WEAKEN BY
LATE MORNING...BUT THE BOUNDARY IT LEAVES BEHIND ACROSS INLAND SE
TX/C LA WILL BE THE ADDITIONAL FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON FOR TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. THUS...WENT 40-50% ACROSS THIS REGION AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THU INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...TO
KEEP 30-50% COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY MCS THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD
IS SUBJECT TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL. DON`T REALLY SEE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES
MIXED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  86  70 / 100  20  50  20
LCH  84  73  85  73 / 100  20  40  20
LFT  85  71  86  71 / 100  20  50  20
BPT  84  74  85  74 / 100  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11


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