Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 190220
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
920 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO
HANG AROUND ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT. WILL ADJUST POPS IN THE SHORT TERM TO HANDLE THE LATEST
RADAR TREND. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS HANGING IN THERE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2
INCHES. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER LAND
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BPT AND
POSSIBLY LCH LATER OVERNIGHT AS SHRA IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP TOWARDS
THE DAYBREAK HOURS...WITH INTERMITTENT SHRA & MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 10-14Z. FURTHER EAST AT AEX/ARA/LFT...NOT
EXPECTING THE CONVECTION...BUT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR VSBY/CEILINGS
TOWARD 09-13Z. SHOULD SEE DIMINISHED COVERAGE OF SHRA FOR BPT/LCH
LATER FRI MORNING...WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AS THE DEEP AREA OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH SOUTH TO THE
COASTLINE AFTER AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH. EXPECT
TOMORROW TO BE DRIER AS OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE
OUTLOOK FOR THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUITE PLEASANT AS OUR CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE LOW.

SHORT TERM...
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES OFFSHORE. THE BROAD
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH IN BEHIND ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE MID CONUS TROF
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN TODAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LEAVING ONLY 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...
IN THE LONG TERM THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH A COLD FRONT SHAPING UP OVER THE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THIS AREA THE
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT ALL
THE WAY TO THE COASTLINE. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE LIGHT POPS NEXT
WEEK AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THAT FRONT COULD MAKE IT
THIS FAR SOUTH. I CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID TO LOW 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  85  71  87  72 /  50  40  20  20  10
KBPT  73  85  73  87  74 /  30  50  20  20  20
KAEX  69  87  69  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  72  87  71  88  72 /  70  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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