Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 190318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
918 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

The Canadian cold front moved through southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana and is currently in the coastal waters and header deeper
into the gulf. Temperatures are already 5 to 10 degrees cooler
than morning lows. Strong northerly winds will continue through
the overnight hours before settling during the day on Sunday.
Tomorrows highs are expected to be about 10 degrees cooler than
this morning lows... what a difference a day can make.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

19/00Z TAF Issuance.

Cold front extends from near Simmesport to Cameron, accompanied by
a narrow sctd band of SHRA, and a broken band of clouds based
around 4000 ft. Kept VCSH mention in at LFT/ARA for the next few
hours, with the front expected to pass these sites between 02-04Z.
Behind the front, skies will become SKC with northwest winds
around 15 KT gusting to near 25 KT. Winds will shift more
northerly, diminishing to around 10 KT overnight, then strengthen
13-16 KT with gusts up to 25 KT again during the day Sunday.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

A cold front of Canadian origin is located currently from
northeast Louisiana into south central Texas and is just about to
enter the forecast area. Significant dew point difference with the
front, as readings ahead of it are in the mid to upper 60s and
quickly drop into the mid 40s behind it. A region of pre-frontal
lift is producing a band of mainly light to moderate showers
moving across Lower Acadiana into the Gulf of Mexico. Some mixing
with daytime heating has produce some breezy southwest winds with
sustained speeds around 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph.


Water vapor shows a significant upper level trough moving out of
the Plains, and this system will continue to move off to the east,
helping to keep a surface cold front just to the northwest
progressive, and move it through the forecast area this evening.
Bands of mainly light showers will be possible ahead of it and
right along the front, until much drier air quickly moves in. Some
breezy southwest winds ahead of the front will be possible until
sunset, or until the front passes, therefore will keep the Wind
Advisory going for the entire forecast area through 6 pm. After
that, strong high pressure building in and good cold air advection
will allow for some strong and gusty northerly winds, mainly for
the southern zones through the evening hours. So will keep the
Wind Advisory going for the I-10 corridor south to the coast until
midnight local.

The much cooler and drier continental air mass will then settle
across the forecast area for the remainder of the weekend. Lows by
Sunday morning will be in the 40s area wide, with temperatures
only warming into the lower 60s during the day. Then a cold night
for Sunday night into Monday morning, with mid 30s for Central
Louisiana and upper Southeast Texas to upper 30s and lower 40s
for the I-10 corridor.

High pressure will quickly move off to the east by Monday with
weak return flow and a slight moderation in temperatures.

Guidance is in better agreement today with the forecast for the
remainder of the week. Gulf briefly opens up with some moisture
return before the next Canadian cold front moves through on
Tuesday night. Drier and cooler air moves in behind the front and
looking like a rather chilly Turkey day.


A Canadian cold front will be moving through the coastal waters
this evening. Winds will turn to the north behind the front. With
good cold air advection moving over the relatively warmer Gulf
waters, quite a bit of turbulence and mixing should occur that
will allow for strong and gusty offshore winds. Frequent gusts
over 35 knots and up to between 40 and 45 knots will be possible.
So a Gale Warning will be in effect for both the near shore and
offshore waters from late this evening through the overnight.

Winds will gradually decrease by Sunday afternoon as high pressure
behind the front begins to settle in. This high will move off to
the east by Monday, with east to southeast winds returning.

Another significant cold front looks to move through on Tuesday
night that once again will bring strong offshore flow.



AEX  42  62  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  64  39  63 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  47  62  38  63 /  20   0   0   0
BPT  47  64  42  64 /   0   0   0   0


LA...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LAZ041>045.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for LAZ052>055-073-074.

TX...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TXZ216.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for TXZ215.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ470-472-

     Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ430-432-435.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to noon CST Sunday for GMZ450-452-



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