Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 030801
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 3AM...LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST AND A SFC TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND DRIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH/LOW
HAS MAINTAINED A SWATH OF MODERATE RAIN OVER ERN VA TO SRN DE WITH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE BALT-WASH METRO. LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN
BE A FIXTURE OF THE MORNING HOURS.

ALSO AT THIS TIME...A LOW IS OVER NRN ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL DESCEND
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WET AND
CLOUDY PATTERN FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC.

TODAY...SFC LOW SHIFTS EAST FROM THE AREA. NELY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT AIDS THIS
DEVELOPMENT. MOST GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA
AND AREAS NE BEING DRY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES SW
INTO THE AREA FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MAX TEMPS MID 60S NE TO
MID 70S SW PER SUPERBLEND/GMOS/MAV/MET BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LOWEST POPS OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGES INTO THE AREA AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.
CLOUDY WITH LOWS AROUND 50F WEST TO LOW TO MID 50S EAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
TO THE CAROLINA COAST. PLENTY OF LIFT IN THIS TIME FOR SHOWERS AND
JUST ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
INTERMITTENT...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS SHOULD HELP RECOUP THE
PRECIP DEFICIT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WHILE THE ROCKY MTNS WL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPR LVL
RDG THU/FRI THE ERN U.S. WL BE XPRNCG A LARGE TROF. THIS WL BE
MAKE MID ATLC WX CLDY COOL AND SHOWERY. HIGHS WL BE IN 60-65
RNG...LOWS A50.

TROF WL LIFT TO THE NE SAT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAK INDUCED RDG
TO RETURN TO THE AREA...BRINGING SOME SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
HIGHS IN THE 70S. A WEAK CD FNT IS XPCTD TO PASS THRU THE MID ATLC
SUNDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING A FEW RW TO THE AREA. HIGH PRES OVR THE
RGN NEXT MON. HIGHS RMNG IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

IFR CONDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS EAST.
NELY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SW OF THE DC METROS IN MAINLY MVFR CONDS.

RAIN TAPERS OFF IN BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST...POSSIBLE IFR CONDS AGAIN.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND CROSSEST THURSDAY WITH
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS BOTH DAYS.

SUB-VFR CONDS LKLY THU/FRI IN LOWERED CIGS...THEN A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS SAT.

&&

.MARINE...

NLY WIND TURNS NELY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM
THE AREA. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS THU/FRI XCPT OVC SKIES/RW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!



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