Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 232320 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
620 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD SEE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DEVELOP OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT SOME TAF SITES...WITH
SOME MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST FOR LATER SUN
AFTERNOON...WITH SIMILAR RESULTS. SOME MORE BREEZY SRLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE SEEN FOR SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS MOVED NORTH THIS MORNING...WITH MORE SHOWERS FORMING THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WITH PREVIOUS WAVES...HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING...AS THE MODELS HAVE TROUBLE WITH THIS
PATTERN.

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES...WITH THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...AND
EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST THROUGH HOT SPRINGS AND BENTON
AREA...WHERE MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. WHILE THIS IS
NOT A LOT OF RAIN...IT WILL FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...WITH
FLOODING CONCERNS DEVELOPING QUICKLY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL COVER MORE OF THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE FOR THREE DAYS NOW HAS KEYED ON
A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS. AS OF
NOW...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
WIDESPREAD...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LIKELY TO BE EXPANDED.
HOWEVER...WITH THE TWO DISTINCT WAVES...WITH HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
FROM LITTLE ROCK TO THE EAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN OVERALL THAN
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...BUT A TOTAL DRY FORECAST IS NOT SEEN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEDNESDAY HAS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND CHANCES OF RAIN ARE IN THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE A BIT OF A LULL IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BUILDS A BIT BACK TO THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. BUT SMALL TO LOW CHANCES OF RAIN DO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...WHILE BEING A BIT MORE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING POTENTIAL. INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND MOVES BACK TO THE EAST...WHILE THE UPPER SW FLOW SENDS
MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY BACK INTO THE REGION AND RAIN CHANCES AGAIN
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. OVERALL SATURATED GROUND ACROSS THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  79  67  78 /  20  60  90  60
CAMDEN AR         70  82  69  81 /  30  60  90  70
HARRISON AR       63  75  64  78 /  60  80  80  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  79  68  79 /  30  60  80  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  68  81  68  80 /  20  60  90  60
MONTICELLO AR     70  83  70  81 /  20  50  80  70
MOUNT IDA AR      68  77  69  77 /  50  70  90  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  76  65  80 /  40  70  80  50
NEWPORT AR        66  81  68  79 /  20  60  90  60
PINE BLUFF AR     68  82  69  80 /  20  50  80  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  79  67  80 /  50  70  90  50
SEARCY AR         65  80  68  79 /  20  60  90  60
STUTTGART AR      68  82  69  80 /  20  50  80  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR BOONE-CLARK-CONWAY-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-VAN
BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62





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