Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 012251 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
551 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT LESS THAN 6 KNOTS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOONS TO EARLY EVENINGS. LITTLE TO NO SEVERE STORM RISK.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STREAMED IN OVER AR FROM THE SOUTH DUE
TO CONVECTION OVER THE TX AND LA GULF COAST. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TODAY WITH UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN A FEW SPOTS. AFTER
SUNSET...ALL SHOULD DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION AND LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES WILL COMBINE TO DEVELOP THE
CONVECTION.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO POSSIBLE LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. DRY OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS CHANGE
LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT...BUT STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS LOW ON POP CHANCES. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS IN SOUTH AR THAT RECEIVE THE MOST SUN. THIS UPPER TROUGH
WEAKENS MORE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN A
BIT MORE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LOWER OVERALL CONVECTION CHANCES
AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED WELL SOUTH. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

LONG TERM...LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORHTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT THE RIDGE
WILL HOLD TIGHT OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE LACKING.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THIS...
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
ENTERS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57



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