Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 251138
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
638 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are again expected
today. However, high pressure will build over the area late in the
day. This will decrease rain chances and tonight should be dry.
VFR conditions are anticipated through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 356 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017
)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
The area of high pressure aloft will continue over the middle part
of the country through Wednesday. Subsidence will once again return.
Will keep small chances of showers and thunderstorms over the area
today, but chances will decrease for tonight and Wednesday. Expect
dry conditions for Wednesday.

Temperatures will be very warm and will continue the Heat Advisory
through the central part of the state today and Wednesday. Expect
heat indices in this area to reach around 105 degrees. High
temperatures will be in the mid 90s today and Wednesday.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
Medium range models all continue to advertise a significant pattern
change starting in the Thursday / Friday time frame and continuing
through the remainder of the extended period. Temperatures will
actually fall below normal with time. There are some differences
between the extended models in the finer details but the overall
trend is clear, much welcomed relief.

Another very warm day is expected on Thursday with upper level high
pressure still holding on but the axis of the anti-cyclone will be
located to the west of the state and retrograding that way. On the
surface high pressure along the Gulf Coast will continue southerly
flow with another day of heat indices likely at or exceeding 105
degrees.

The pattern transition will begin late Thursday and continue through
Saturday. The driving force will be a frontal boundary that will be
working its way through the state. The front will be the focal point
for showers and thunderstorms as it moves through. Right now high
end chance pops seem justified with this boundary.

As the front moves through, the mid/upper level pattern changes
significantly (especially for this time of year) with significantly
elongated ridging setting up across the western United States and
deep troughing across the east. This pattern change results in
northwest flow aloft that turns more to the northeast early next
week.

Surface high pressure will be located to our north with much drier
and cooler air making its way into the state. Expect both daytime
and nighttime temps to average below normal for a welcomed break
from typical summer conditions.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Wednesday FOR Conway-
Faulkner-Independence-Jackson-Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Perry-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$


Aviation...51



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