Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 212127
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
325 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.Near Term...Late This Afternoon and Tonight

Cold fnt was to the S of the FA this aftn, situated over Nrn LA.
Copious amounts of moisture/lift cont to advect acrs the region,
resulting in widespread rain over much the FA. Temps held fairly
steady with 30s over N AR, with 40s/lower 50s elsewhere.

Main concern thru tngt wl be the contd rain chances, and threat of
flooding. Radar data cont to suggest mainly light to moderate rain
wl cont ovr much of the area tngt. Conds have turned more to an
areal flood threat, although flash flooding potential still exists.
Thus, have kept flood watch in place for primarily the SE half of
the area into Thu mrng.

With sfc temps hovering close to freezing, cannot rule out some
light freezing rain this evening over part of N-Central AR. Still
not expecting any sig ice accumulation, so have opted not to issue
any headlines. Wl cont to monitor trends this evening though.
&&

.Short Term...Thursday Through Saturday

A nearly stationary boundary located just to the south and southeast
of the forecast area is expected to lift slowly to the north during
this period. The focus for the heaviest rainfall is expected to also
shift northward during this period.

Another round for a focused excessive rainfall threat appears for
late Thursday into Friday evening, as another wave of southwesterly
flow energy approaches the mid south.
&&

.Long Term...Saturday Night Through Wednesday

Southwest flow will continue over Arkansas Saturday night as an
upper low moves through the Plains. The southwest flow aloft will
continue over Arkansas Sunday, with surface high pressure in place,
but drier air will enter the area and continue into Monday. Moisture
will return Tuesday night into Wednesday and rain chances will
increase. Temperatures will remain near normal through the period.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through late tonight FOR Clark-Cleburne-Dallas-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Lonoke-Montgomery-
Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff.

Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Arkansas-Bradley-Calhoun-
Cleveland-Desha-Drew-Jefferson-Lincoln-Monroe.
$$

Near Term...44 / Short Term...55 / Long Term...51


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