Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 290226 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
925 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 201

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. DUE TO THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH...EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL TO MID TO LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AR...
SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE SEEN. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF NE AR. UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THE
STATE. THE CLOUD COVER OVER NE AR IS GRADUALLY THINNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN FROM DAY TIME...AND
IF A LIGHT WIND FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT THEN FROST WOULD BE
LIMITED. OTHERWISE WILL FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND GUST TO
23 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF AROUND THE STATE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON
TAP. THE BIG DIFFERENCE TONIGHT COMPARED TO OTHER NIGHTS IS THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...GENERALLY NE OF A LINE FROM
HARRISON TO AUGUSTA. AS A RESULT...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS
SHIFTS TREND OF LOWERING POPS A BIT WITH THIS FRONT. MOISTURE IS
SLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION...AND EACH MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO COME
BACK A BIT DRIER. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS WITH THE NAM AND GFS A BIT DRIER.

FRONT STALLS AROUND SOUTH ARKANSAS AND MEANDERS A BIT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THESE DAYS SHOULD BE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO BE IN THE VICINITY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...BEFORE SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE MID SOUTH LATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  63  45  69 /   0  10  30  10
CAMDEN AR         43  78  59  69 /   0  10  40  20
HARRISON AR       36  67  42  67 /   0  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    42  73  54  69 /   0  10  40  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  71  53  70 /   0  10  40  10
MONTICELLO AR     43  74  58  69 /   0  10  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      41  73  53  68 /   0  10  40  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  36  65  42  70 /   0  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        37  64  45  67 /   0  10  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     40  72  55  69 /   0  10  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   39  69  50  71 /   0  10  30  10
SEARCY AR         37  67  49  69 /   0  10  40  10
STUTTGART AR      40  69  53  69 /   0  10  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51








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