Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211131
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
Issued by National Weather Service MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

Patchy BR/FG expected to dissipate after 21/13z with VFR
prevailing through the day and S/SEly winds gusting to 10-15 kts
north. SCT cumulus at or above 4-5 kft with slightly higher cloud
cover expected across southern terminals, but not enough for BKN
CIGs. TS chances remain low through the TAF period so no mention
in TAFs. A near carbon copy tonight into Friday morning with low
confidence MVFR to potentially IFR BR/FG. Highest confidence in
IFR restriction at KADF, but timing and FG density may vary
considerably.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED Issued by National Weather Service MEMPHIS TN)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

The upper-level ridge will build over the next few days with 500mb
heights progged to top out around 590dam. A weak mid-level low is
embedded within the ridge just south of the area but is forecast
to drift south over the next day or two. Strong subsidence aloft
will provide mostly sunny conditions outside of some passing high
clouds and will help squash rain chances. Although a stray shower
is not out of the question this afternoon, generally hot and
humid conditions will prevail. A persistence forecast is in order
through Friday with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and
overnight lows near 70 degrees.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday Night

The ridge is forecast to shift north and east over the Great Lakes
this weekend, although its influence will continue to be felt
across The Natural State. An upper-level low will be moving slowly
west on the southern periphery of the anticyclone and may enhance
rain chances slightly Saturday and Sunday. These rain chances
will still remain on the low side and will generally be confined
to the eastern half of AR. Otherwise, expect hot and humid
conditions to continue. The lowering mid-level heights should
facilitate a slight cool-down by Sunday, and by slight we`re only
talking a few degrees. Highs are still expected to be in the
ballpark of 90 degrees over the weekend.

The global models indicate a strong trough digging over the
western CONUS this weekend, moving slowly east near Continental
Divide on Sunday. The blocking "high over low" pattern over the
eastern CONUS will keep the trough to the west through Monday, but
the ridge quickly breaks down Tuesday. The aforementioned
westerly moving upper-low will be in the vicinity Monday and
chance PoPs are in order across portions of the CWA. However, on
Tuesday, this feature is progged to catch a ride in the
westerlies, limiting rain chances to diurnal forcing alone.
Synoptic scale forcing will increase by midweek as the trough
begins to slide east over the southward retreating ridge. This
will increase rain chances on Wednesday. Temperatures will trend
back toward climo early next week, meaning highs will be in the
mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$



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