Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 251602
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED WEST OF ARKANSAS AND MOST
CLOUDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE MIDWEST. MOST CLOUDS IN ARKANSAS ARE LOCATED IN THE WEST AND
WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. MUCH FEWER CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST SECTIONS PER SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LOWERED
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS A DEGREE OR
TWO. SOUTH SECTIONS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST TODAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE INDEED FORMED IN WESTERN ARKANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH. CIGS
RANGE FROM BKN035-040 FT AT KRUE AND KHOT...TO BKN015-020 IN THE
NORTHWEST NEAR KFYV AND KASG. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. HAVE
INCLUDED FEW020 AT KHRO THROUGH THE MORNING TO HINT AT THIS BUT DO
NOT THINK MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT HARRISON AND STOPPED SHY OF ANY
TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AREAS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TODAY FOR FEW-SCT040 DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...FOLLOWED BY DIURNAL CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10KT AT ALL SITES...AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
NOT A LOT OF VALUE ADDED CHANGES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS ALL
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THAT BEING SAID...WILL
CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR THE FEW...MAINLY
FINER SCALE DIFFERENCES...THAT EXIST.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES OVER THE CENTURY
MARK ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LIKELY FALL JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERALL THE
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS STILL DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING WHICH HAS BEEN
PUSHED KNOCKED DOWN AND SHUNTED SLIGHTLY EAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AT THIS TIME WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE SATURDAY WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY AND WILL
EXIT THE STATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHILE ECMWF HAS VIRTUALLY NONE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT
THIS POINT BUT REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...ONLY MINIMAL
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. AT THE SURFACE
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY AND BE
SITUATED IN NRN LOUISIANA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE STATE. IN FACT...NEAR
RECORD LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING...AND AGAIN WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE
MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN. IN THE
NORTH...READINGS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S...QUITE COOL FOR LATE
JULY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE DAILY RECORD LOWS.

LIKEWISE...HIGHS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL AS WELL THOUGH
POTENTIALLY A BIT TRICKY TO FORECAST ON WED AND THU. IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. MODELS SHOW A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT.
FORECASTS HAVE VARIED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT IN GENERAL IT
LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THAT TIME. DEPENDING ON WHEN CLOUD COVER
MOVES IN AND/OR WHERE RAIN SETS UP...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         93  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       89  70  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  71  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  70  96  74 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     92  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      91  70  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        89  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     90  70  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  70  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         90  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      90  70  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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