Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
990
FXUS64 KLZK 142350
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
550 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
AS WELL. RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AT 4 TO 8 MPH TONIGHT...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HAD SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS
TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS HAS PRETTY
MUCH QUIT...AND WE ARE WAITING FOR ROUND TWO. THAT WILL
HAPPEN TONIGHT.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM TEXAS...AND WILL INTERACT
WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE...AND IT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL.

AS FAR AS RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...ONE
TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS LATELY...MUCH
OF THE LIQUID SHOULD GO INTO THE SOIL.

WHILE THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES...LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS
ARRIVE FROM THE GULF COAST.

THE TEXAS SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER MISSOURI AND MOVE TOWARDS TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY...SPREADING SOME
STORNG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW
700 MB WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE IN NATURE DUE TO THE LINGERING
EFFECTS OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MONDAY/S UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TUESDAY/S TROUGH IS STRONG...HOWEVER THINK IT
WILL ONLY SERVE TO SATURATE UP THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER...RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIFT THROUGH THIS SATURATED LAYER WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS...HOWEVER THINK IT WILL ONLY RESULT IN VIRGA
WITH OVER 8000 FEET OF DRY AIR IN PLACE TO EVAPORATE RAINFALL BEFORE
IT REACHES THE SURFACE. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW DAYS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESULT IN NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE
BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY. THIS
TROUGH MAY SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS ON
FRIDAY...BUT ONLY WEAK LIFT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AT THIS
TIME. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE MUCH DRIER NORTH OF THE
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FRIDAY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT MAY
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRANSITIONS
OVER TO MORE ZONAL/SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE...
THIS CHANGE IN FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN A CESSATION OF WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
REPLACED BY LARGE SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION AS NOTED BY THE VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOCKWISE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THIS
PROCESS WILL SIMPLY HELP TO SLOWLY LIFT AND COOL THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE IN THE 800 TO 600 MB LAYER OVER THE
REGION. WITH MOST OF THE WEAK LIFT WORKING TO REMOVE THIS
INVERSION...LEFT THE FORECAST DRY ON SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS BEEN REMOVED BY
PERSISTENT LIFT ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF. WEAK LIFT AND POSITIVE
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY THESE MODELS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT THIS TIME...SO DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  35  53  39 /  30  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         59  50  61  41 /  20  80  80  10
HARRISON AR       39  32  58  40 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    50  43  61  41 /  30  50  50   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  51  42  57  42 /  40  50  60  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  51  58  43 /  20  80  90  10
MOUNT IDA AR      50  42  62  40 /  40  40  30   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  38  32  55  36 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        42  35  51  37 /  40  30  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     57  45  56  41 /  30  80  80  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   44  38  59  39 /  30  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         47  39  55  38 /  40  30  40  10
STUTTGART AR      52  43  54  41 /  30  70  80  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.