Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 220528
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
128 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.AVIATION...
The winds will remain light and variable early this morning before
becoming easterly around 10 knots at most of the taf sites today.
The only exception is that KAPF taf site should see a westerly
winds after 18Z today.

The weather should remain dry over most of the taf sites early
this morning, except for KPBI AND KFLL taf sites where a few
showers could work into these taf sites from the Atlantic waters.
The shower coverage will increase over the east coat taf sites
through the morning hours with even thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon hours. KAPF taf site should remain dry through the
morning hours, before showers develop along with some
thunderstorms in the afternoon hours.

The ceiling and vis should remain in VFR conditions today over all
of the taf sites. However, with any shower or thunderstorm that
moves over the taf sites could lower the ceiling and vis into MVFR
conditions.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 737 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

UPDATE...
No changes needed to be made to the previous forecast as
everything looks on track. There will still be a chance of showers
and thunderstorms during the overnight hours mainly along the east
coast metro areas. High pressure will weaken tomorrow and a trough
will begin to move into the region. This will help to increase the
chances of showers and thunderstorms across South Florida
tomorrow.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 724 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

AVIATION...
Most convective activity has concluded, with a few exceptions
north of PBI, and over the Gulf coast. These cells are not
forecast to have a significant impact on any TAF sites attm. With
a weak flow aloft, and still plenty of moisture around, look for
another round of convection tomorrow. It is probable that coverage
will be greater than today, thus a prob30 group is in place for
most of the afternoon for all TAF sites. While VFR is forecast,
brief IFR will be possible under heavy SHRA and TS.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 440 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms that have developed across the region
this afternoon will begin to diminish as the the evening
progresses. High pressure currently located over the Gulf of
Mexico will begin to weaken on Friday as a trough of low pressure
digs into the southeastern portion of the country. This will
increase the shower and thunderstorm chances across South Florida
on Friday and Saturday. At the same time, Hurricane Maria will
move in a more northerly direction. We do not expect any direct
impacts from Maria as it will pass off to the east.

As the trough begins to lift out of the region later this weekend
into early next week, drier air will move into the region as the
winds become more northerly due to Maria passing off to the east.
Therefore, the chances of shower and thunderstorm activity will
decrease by the beginning of next week across the region. Both of
the GFS and the ECMWF continue to show a northerly wind flow
through the middle to end of next week. This will help to keep the
drier weather in place across South Florida with lower chances of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A long period northeasterly swell from Tropical Storm Jose will
continue across the local Atlantic waters through Friday before a
northeasterly swell from Hurricane Maria moves into the Atlantic
waters this weekend. This will allow for the seas to build through
the weekend across the Atlantic waters. Winds across the Atlantic
and Gulf waters will remain east northeasterly through the
upcoming weekend at 10 to 15 knots. These winds will begin to
decrease early next week and they will become more northerly.


MARINE...
A long period northeasterly swell from Tropical Storm Jose will
continue across the local Atlantic waters through Friday before a
northeasterly swell from Hurricane Maria moves into the Atlantic
waters this weekend. This will allow for the seas to build through
the weekend across the Atlantic waters. Winds across the Atlantic
and Gulf waters will remain east northeasterly through the
upcoming weekend at 10 to 15 knots. These winds will begin to
decrease early next week and they will become more northerly.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  89  78  89 /  40  50  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  89  79  88 /  40  40  40  30
Miami            78  90  78  89 /  40  40  30  40
Naples           75  91  75  91 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...55/CWC
DISCUSSION...55/CWC
MARINE...55/CWC
AVIATION...54/BNB


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