Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 292353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH.
THEREFORE INTRODUCED VCSH MENTION FOR KAPF AFTER 13Z AND AFTER 15Z
ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
PREVAIL AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE OVER
NIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NAPLES METRO AREA AND GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DEEPENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AND
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF JUST WEST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  75  89 /  20  60  50  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  77  90 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            77  93  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
NAPLES           78  88  78  88 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10/CD
UPDATE....60/BD



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