Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 260056
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
856 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...

THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IS FOR THE 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH 90 TO 100% OF THE
MEMBERS OF NAEFS HAVING VALUES HIGHER THAN ANY REANALYSIS IN A
THREE WEEK PERIOD CENTERED ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST ALSO SHOWS
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE EAST
BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AND LASTING UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WE COULD STILL EXPERIENCE
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CONVERGENCE AREAS ENHANCED BY THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS MAINTAINED FOR
THIS EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS
ALSO EXTENDED FOR THE GULF WATERS DUE TO AN AIRCRAFT WATERSPOUT
REPORT. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND IT VERY LIKELY THAT WILL BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN A LITTLE BIT MORE MORTH OF EAST TONIGHT,
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE BAND COMING OFF FROM
GRAND BAHAMA COULD AFFECT THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND SOME OF THE
PALM BEACH COASTAL AREAS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
THUNDER, THUS ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z FROM THIS MORNING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS THAT THE WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 300 MB HAVE NOW BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS IS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  88  77  86 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  92 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD


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