Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 302353
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
753 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
Last band of thunderstorms will move westward from Collier,
Hendry, and Glades county out of the area by 1z. Otherwise, a few
showers exist over Everglades as well as southern Atlantic waters.
Both of these regions of precipitation appear to be diminishing,
with little expectation of redevelopment. Thus, rain chances have
been lowered some, especially along the east coast, this evening.
Only adjustment besides POPs this evening to is lower current and
near term temperatures over the rain-cooled west, and raised them
over the east, based on current conditions.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to drift west over
Naples Airport through 31/0100z, temporarily dropping vis to 2 SM
and a period of SE winds. Otherwise, VFR conds and at all east
coast TAF sites. Tonight, between 01Z-05Z VCSH may develop along
the Atlantic coast, but confidence is too low to include in a
TEMPO group. On Sunday, shower and thunderstorm activity will once
again first develop along the east coast TAF sites between 15Z-17Z
and shift west towards the interior and KAPF during the afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 440 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016/
Subtropical high pressure will keep conditions warm and humid
through next week. One disturbance Sunday and another on Tuesday
and Wednesday will provide better rain chances, otherwise typical
summertime weather will prevail.
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...
Impressively-defined Atlantic sea-breeze is the dominant feature
in terms of South Florida weather this afternoon and evening.
Despite relatively dry /SAL influenced/ environment, convection
has fired along it, and some of the thunderstorms have been strong
with gusty winds. Expect this activity to persist through mid-
evening, and may collide with a more modest Gulf breeze which is
also initiating convection 10-20 miles inland of coast. Leading
edge of moisture plume and low pressure trough is leading to
Atlantic thunderstorms between the Bahamas and South Florida, and
this activity may approach east coast late this evening.
Aforementioned trough and associated TUTT will impact the region
Sunday, bringing better thunderstorm chances. More Saharan dust
will arrive Monday, leading to a reduction in convection chances.
Easterly winds will prevail and temperatures will remain slightly
above normal for this time of year.
LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
South Florida is likely to be affected by the inverted trough
associated with a strong, fast-moving tropical wave that will
cross south of the Hispaniola and Cuba Tuesday and Wednesday. This
should bring best East Coast rain chances in quite a while. More
relatively dry air is forecast to arrive by late next week.
Overall, the Bermuda High to the northeast will continue to
dominate, providing persistent east southeasterly flow, with
periods of enhanced moisture and Saharan air pivoted around the
periphery of the ridge and across South Florida through the
Afternoon TAF package has been adjusted to carry VCSH for the rest
of the afternoon as it seems daytime heating has not destabilized the
air mass across South Florida enough to trigger convection over
land yet. A couple of thunderstorms were observed on KAMX radar
over the Atlantic coastal waters, remaining well offshore from
Miami. The only terminal TAF that will keep carrying VCTS for the
rest of the afternoon is APF where a better pool of moisture and
sea breeze interactions may combine to generate a few cells.
VFR conditions should then prevail tonight and through Sunday
morning with winds becoming light and variable overnight.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be the main weather
feature for South Florida waters well into next week. Gusty and
erratic winds may accompany convective activity, but general wind
will remain east and southeast at 10 to 15 KT. Seas will
generally be less than 3 feet, perhaps slightly enhanced when a
tropical wave passes south of the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 79 92 80 91 / 20 30 10 20
Fort Lauderdale 79 90 81 90 / 30 30 10 30
Miami 78 90 80 90 / 30 40 10 30
Naples 76 91 77 92 / 30 40 10 40