Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 260549 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
149 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.AVIATION...
The winds will remain northeast today over all of South Florida
taf sites. The speeds will be around 5 knots this morning before
increasing to around 10 knots this afternoon. VCSH will continue
over the east coast taf sites through 15Z before going to VCTS.
For KAPF taf site, the weather will remain dry through 17Z then
VCTS for the afternoon hours. The ceiling and vis will remain in
the VFR conditions over all of the taf sites outside of any
showers or thunderstorms, but could fall into MVRF or even IFR
conditions with the passage of a shower or thunderstorm.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 822 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016/

UPDATE...
High pressure across the Southeastern United States is keeping an
east to northeast flow over South Florida. Deep tropical moisture
is generating scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the
Atlantic coastal waters, with some of those cells expected to
reach the Atlantic coastline throughout tonight. A few cells may
develop over the west half of the area, but most showers should
favor the eastern half. Current POPs/Weather values look good and
no significant changes are required for the evening update.

Residents and visitors to South Florida should continue to closely
monitor the products of the National Hurricane Center and the
National Weather Service in Miami over the next few days to stay
alert for any potential impacts to South Florida from a tropical
disturbance near the southeast Bahamas.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 743 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016/

AVIATION...
Showers over mainland South Florida have generally dissipated for
the evening. However, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
ongoing in Atlantic waters will occasionally push onshore into
the night, thus VCSH warranted for east coast terminals. Activity
should continue through Friday, with Naples likely to see
showers/thunderstorms develop by afternoon, when VCTS has been
introduced. Winds will be ENE at 5-12 KT through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 501 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Tonight-Fri: a broad mid level ridge expanding across the Lower
Mississippi Valley, while a surface high dominates most of the mid
Atlantic. This synoptic setup will keep a prevailing northeasterly
and easterly flow across the area, with breezy periods possible at
times. The easterly winds will keep advecting moisture from the
Atlantic, with showers and thunderstorm activity expected to
continue tonight and favoring the Atlantic coast. Sounding and
model data shows plenty of deep tropical moisture lingering across
South Florida with PWAT values well above normals, and this trend
should continue into the weekend.

Sat-Tue...the National Hurricane Center in Miami continues to
monitor the progress of the strong tropical disturbance near Turks
and Caicos. This system remains less organized than in the past
24 hours and continues to lack a well-defined center per the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook. It is expected to continue to
move west-northwest during the next several days, with the
possibility that conditions could become more favorable for
development as it moves near the central Bahamas this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center gives this tropical disturbance a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next two days
and high chance over the next 5 days. The large amount of
uncertainty regarding development and movement, or lack thereof of
the disturbance, will keep the overall forecast scenario for South
Florida also highly uncertain. But regardless of the final outcome
of this disturbance, the aforementioned tropical moisture will
remain over the area, keeping widespread showers and thunderstorms
through early next week. Some breezy or windy periods are also
possible. The weekend forecast will continue to be adjusted as the
scenario for the tropical disturbance becomes more clear with
upcoming model guidance.

For the middle of next week and beyond...rather wet conditions
will remain in place with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected each afternoon and evening through
Thursday.

Residents and visitors to South Florida should continue to closely
monitor the products of the National Hurricane Center and the
National Weather Service in Miami over the next few days to stay
alert for any potential impacts to South Florida with this
developing system.

MARINE...
East-northeast winds in the 10-15kts range will continue through
Friday. Seas will increase into the 2-4ft range in the Atlantic
with occasional 5ft in the Gulf stream and 2ft or less in the
Gulf.

For this weekend and beyond, a high level of uncertainty remains in
the extended forecast for winds and seas as the National Hurricane
Center continues to monitor a strong tropical disturbance near
Turks and Caicos. Mariners should continue to closely monitor the
forecast over the next few days to stay alert for any potential
impacts to South Florida with this developing system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  80  91  79  90 /  40  60  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  81  90  80  89 /  50  70  60  70
Miami            80  92  79  89 /  40  70  60  70
Naples           76  91  77  93 /  20  60  30  70

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...92/IRL
LONG TERM....17/AR
AVIATION...54/BNB



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