Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 242103

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
503 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016


High pressure extends across the southeastern states and into the
Florida peninsula. Northeasterly surface and low level flow
continues to bring patches of moisture and low level
stratocumulus across the local Atlantic waters and the Atlantic
metro areas.

Forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday...A diffuse and mainly dry cold
front is forecast to approach north Florida on Tuesday. High
pressure will continue to dominate South Florida through
Wednesday. The local pressure gradient and regional winds will
increase Tuesday and Wednesday however shower activity is expected
to be limited, mainly isolated passing showers across portions of
the Atlantic waters and affecting the Atlantic metro areas from
time to time, starting late Tuesday through Wednesday.

Chances for rip currents across the Atlantic coast beaches will
increase through mid-week as winds and seas steadily build later
on Tuesday into Wednesday, and will remain high through at least

Forecast for Thursday into the upcoming weekend...The combination
of increasing moisture forecast on Thursday and Friday and an
upper level trough forecast to build into the east central Gulf
will lead to a chance of scattered showers Thursday and Friday.
The deeper moisture thus far is expected across the Florida
Straits and southern peninsula, with scattered showers mainly
forecast across the southern third of South Florida and adjacent
Gulf and Atlantic waters. Have continued a slight chance of
thunderstorms during this period, with similar conditions possibly
lingering into the early weekend. Will be able to better assess
thunderstorm chances as the week progresses.



The pressure gradient will increase across the regional waters
tonight into Tuesday with winds tonight increasing to the 15 to
20 knot range with gradually increasing seas with a pre-cautionary
statement for small craft in effect after 06z Tuesday. Later on
Tuesday winds across the Atlantic waters are forecast to be in the
17 to 21 knot range with a Small Craft Advisory likely late
Tuesday if the guidance is consistent with the forecast wind
speeds. Winds and seas are forecast to gradually increase into
Wednesday with hazardous seas forecast across the Atlantic and
Gulf Stream waters on Wednesday. Into Thursday winds in the range
of 20 to 25 knots are forecast with hazardous seas continuing for
the Atlantic waters, and may be possible for the off shore Gulf
waters. Winds and seas are forecast to gradually decrease Friday
into the weekend.



Late Tuesday into Wednesday winds across the region are forecast
to increase steadily as the local pressure gradient increases,
with the transport winds increasing through this period. Maximum
dispersion values to near 70 or above are forecast Tuesday and
Wednesday across portions of the South Florida peninsula.


West Palm Beach  67  83  75  84 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  70  82  76  84 /  10  10  20  20
Miami            69  83  73  84 /  10  10  20  20
Naples           62  84  67  87 /  10   0   0  10



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