Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 291725
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.AVIATION...Seabreezes have developed and pushed inland on both
coasts with the occasional shra/tsra, mainly along east coast.
Based on current satellite/radar trends, have removed VCTS from
KFXE-KFLL- KOPF-KMIA where the seabreeze is quieter and has pushed
well west. VCTS remains for KPBI, where there is ongoing
convection as the seabreeze interacts with the Lake Okeechobee
breeze, and for KTMB, both through 20Z-21Z. Have also removed VCTS
mention for KAPF as seabreeze is less active and already inland of
site. Ongoing convection will focus over interior after 20Z.
Seabreeze circulations collapse after 30/02Z with light and
variable winds overnight. Similar pattern to today on Monday.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 946 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
UPDATE...No great revelations with the morning sounding as all
parameters continue to point towards a typical late spring/early
summertime pattern across the region. With no strong synoptic
forcing in place, steering flow is fairly light, allowing for both
seabreezes to develop and move inland early this afternoon. PWATS
are near normal, and temperatures aloft are on the cool side of
normal. All of this points to scattered showers and storms into
the afternoon hours lead by the seabreezes.
For the Gulf coast: Expect the seabreeze to get going early this
afternoon with most storms developing inland from the coastal
For the east coast: Cu is already developing, bringing the
possibility for a shower or two late this morning before the east
coast seabreeze gets going and better shower and storm chances
shift over the western metro and eventually the interior.
Lightning will be the main concern with ANY storms that develop.
Slow movement may bring some locally heavy rainfall, but this is
more likely out over the interior Everglades. /ALM
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
SYNOPSIS...Typical summer will dominate the week, with warm
temperatures and diurnal showers and thunderstorms focusing over
interior sections of the state.
SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...Quiet conditions have
prevailed overnight, with modest drainage flow and only a few
clouds. Dry conditions will most likely prevail through the
morning, before sea-breeze boundaries develop and push inland.
Showers and thunderstorms, scattered in nature, are expected to
form along these boundaries, mostly likely over or inland of the
western suburbs of the east coast metropolitan areas (and eastern
sections of Naples metropolitan area). Similar evolution of
convection is expected Memorial Day, with perhaps a slight
reduction in overall coverage of convection. By Tuesday, slightly
drier air moves in, and afternoon rain chances diminish further.
Temperatures through early week will remain near or just slightly
above average. Maxima should be upper 80s to near 90 degrees over
all metropolitan areas, with some low 90s over interior sections
of South Florida. Minima will be in the 70s.
Moderate risk of rip currents will prevail on Palm Beach County
beaches today due to easterly wind. Lighter wind on Memorial Day
may reduce this threat.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
Little in the way of synoptic features to change overall weather
pattern or focus rain/thunderstorm chances through the week. A
weak deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States will
support diurnal convection over the interior, with only low
chances along the coasts through Thursday. Moisture will gradually
increase through the period, leading to better rain chances at
MARINE... Winds and seas will generally remain well below
hazardous levels through the week. Although a few afternoon
thunderstorms cant be ruled out along the immediate Gulf and
Atlantic coasts, Lake Okeechobee will have the greatest risk for
hazardous thunderstorms early this week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 73 87 73 89 / 10 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 75 88 75 89 / 20 20 10 10
Miami 76 89 75 90 / 10 30 10 20
Naples 72 88 72 88 / 10 30 10 20