Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 302332
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR ON WED AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. THUS, MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  10  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           76  93  76  93 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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