Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 261919
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
219 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...CLEARING TONIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF OF THE EAST COAST
AND AWAY FROM ECFL. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END THIS AFTERNOON AND
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO THIN/CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTER DOWN THE
PENINSULA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL TO BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING AND
EVEN WITH A SLIGHT WIND IT WILL FEEL COOLER LATE OVERNIGHT/TOWARDS
DAWN BUT WE ARE NOT CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING DAY...A COOL/DRY START TO THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NEAR SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BRISK
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S WITH 70 DEGREES WITHIN
REACH TREASURE COAST/OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. THESE WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

FRI-NEXT WED...(PREV DISC) FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL TO WEAKLY
RIDGED. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL ELONGATE INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND THEN REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY-MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRI- SAT DUE TO A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW...THEN READINGS WILL RISE TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUN-
WED AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY. MOS POPS ARE BELOW 15 PERCENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS
COULD OCCUR...COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION SO FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WNDS:
W OF KMLB/KOBE: BTWN 26/18Z-26/24Z...NW 8-12KTS. AFT 27/00Z...W/NW
AOB 5KTS.

E OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/20Z NW 12-15KTS WITH SFC G20-23KTS. BTWN
26/20Z-26/24Z...NW 8-12KTS. AFT 27/00Z...W/NW AOB 5KTS.

CIGS/VSBYS:
W OF KMLB-KOBE: CIGS LFTG TO AOA FL120...VSBYS VFR.

E OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/20Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-035
WITH AREAS IFR CIGS BTWN FL006-009...VSBYS GENERALLY VFR...BTWN
26/20Z-26/22Z...CIGS LFTG TO AOA FL120...VSBYS VFR.

THANKSGIVING DAY...NW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS/OCNL HIGHER
GUSTS. MCLEAR SKIES/DRY. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE
EAST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL POUR DOWN
THE PENINSULA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NW WINDS DECREASING TO 20-25 KTS BUT REMAINING GUSTY HERE. NEAR
SHORE WILL GO WITH SCEC FOR FLAGLER BEACH-VOLUSIA/BREVARD LINE
MARINE LEG. WILL KEEP SCA FROM VOLUSIA-BREVARD LINE THRU JUPITER
INLET UNTIL 7PM/00Z...THEN RETAIN FOR SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE LEG (GULF
STREAM) ONLY. NEAR SHORE NW WINDS 10-15 (NORTH LEG)/15-20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS (TWO SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE LEGS). SEAS BUILDING 4-5 FT
NEAR SHORE AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM WITH GENERALLY 6-7 FT SEAS
OFFSHORE.

THANKSGIVING DAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS...AND
PERHAPS GULF STREAM NEAR SHORE SOUTH LEG...WITH NW WINDS AROUND 20
KTS. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY NEAR SHORE. NEAR THE
COAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS BUT FURTHER OUT TO 20NM OFFSHORE WINDS A
STOUT 15-20 KTS. FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS ON THIS DAY. SEAS BUILDING
AWAY FROM THE COAST 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE/GULF STREAM AND 5-7 FT
OFFSHORE.

FRI-SUN...(PREV DISC) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
PROVIDE A NORTH WIND FRI WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...KEEPING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT POOR TO HAZARDOUS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH FLORIDA SAT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH NORTHEAST WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR EXCEPT
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE DUE EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ELONGATES WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  43  66  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  44  66  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  43  69  43  66 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  46  72  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  44  64  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  45  67  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  66  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  47  72  44  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.