Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281336
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
935 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

...Hotter than Normal and Much Below Normal Rain Chances through
Late this Week...

.UPDATE...Strong mid level ridge just east of the area will continue
subsident hot and dry airmass over the region today. Morning
sounding from the Cape indicated a very dry airmass above 800 mbs
with a PWAT of 1.47 inches which is in the lowest 10 percent of all
soundings for the date and not much above the lowest PWAT of 1.37
inches ever recorded on this date (back to 1956). 12Z Tampa sounding
was even drier with a PWAT of 1.34 inches. The low level ridge
extends from Treasure coast into the NE Gulf with a late day sea
breeze collision expected from near Lake George SW toward wrn Orange
county. Some of the short range model guidance is indicating some
convection firing toward early evening but with the dry atmospheric
soundings and deep layer dry air extending below 700 mbs will
continue dry and hot forecast with only minor adjustments to
temps/winds based on current trends and guidance. Heat indices
expected to top out between 103 to 107 degrees with highs in the mid
to upper 90s across the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected today.

&&

.MARINE...Winds to 10 knots expected around the Atlc ridge becoming
SE around 10 knots near the coast this afternoon. Seas 1-2 ft near
shore to 2 ft offshore with dry weather expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  94  75 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  97  76  96  76 /  10  10  30  10
MLB  92  77  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
VRB  92  74  92  73 /   0  10  20  10
LEE  97  77  95  77 /  10  10  30  20
SFB  98  77  96  76 /  10  10  20  10
ORL  97  77  95  76 /  10  10  30  10
FPR  92  75  92  73 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Volkmer/Johnson



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