Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 252015
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT SLOW DECREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER AS
WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SURFACE-H925 WINDS VEER
AROUND TO NE AS FLOW FROM H90-H85 ON UP REMAINS OUT OF THE SW.
READINGS ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...A BIT LOWER ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH...AND A LITTLE HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AND SE.

FRI...BLYR WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO ENE-E AS THE REMNANT
FRONTAL MOISTURE RIBBON BEGINS TO PIVOT BACK NWD. SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW COUPLED WITH CONTINUED MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT COULD CASE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO BREAK OUT...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CUT BACK ON MAX TEMPS DUE TO ANTICIPATE CLOUDS COVER.
MAXES REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S.

FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...THE 120-140KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE MID
ATLC WILL LIFT N AND MERGE WITH A MUCH BROADER JET EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE FRI EVNG. MID/UPR LVL
FLOW PATTERN ACRS THE SE CONUS/GOMEX REGION WILL RESPOND BY BCMG
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS/FL STRAITS. AS
THE BNDRY STALLS OVER S FL....ITS POST FRONTAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
NRN GOMEX PUSH OFF THE THE SE COAST AND WILL BRIDGE IT BY WEEK`S
END...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A WEAK ANTICYCLONE OVER CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL/SRN BAHAMAS.

A SOMEWHAT SLOPPY WX PATTERN WILL RESULT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROF MEANDERS
BACK AND FORTH ACRS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK AS THE TWO ANTICYCLONES MERGE OVERHEAD
AND THE JET POSITIONS ITSELF NWD. WHILE S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
GENERATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES THRU THE
H85-H70 LYR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIP CHANCES. MOIST
GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF OVERNIGHT FOG THAT
COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG AN N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

ONSHORE FLOW THRU THE DAY SAT BCMG S/SE BY DAYBREAK SUN WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL ABV CLIMO AVG. SAT MRNG MINS IN THE L/M60S INTERIOR AND
M/U60S ALNG THE COAST...AFTN MAXES IN THE U70S/L80S. SUN MRNG MINS
IN THE M/U60S.

SUNDAY...THE CONSOLIDATED ANTICYCLONE OVER THE W ATLC WILL EXTEND
SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...RESULTING IN A MID LVL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ACRS CENTRAL FL THAT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MID LVL
MOISTURE. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...BUT MID LVL CAPPING
AND WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT WILL KEEP DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION. SRLY LOW LVL FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GENERATE ABV
CLIMO TEMPS IN THE U70S ALONG THE COAST...L80S INTERIOR.

MON-THU...(MOD PREV DISC) THE MID LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS AN
IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED
MON WITH HIGHS U70S COASTAL TO L80S INTERIOR. DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS
TO MAKES IT WAY TOWARD N FL BUT OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
HOLD ON TO A DRY FORECAST.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG TOWARD CENTRAL FL ON TUE BRINGING
CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. WINDS WILL
VEER TO ONSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO MID WEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A FRONTAL WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STARTING TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE TX GULF COAST. APPEARS DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF E CENTRAL FL INTO LATE WEEK AS
LOW LVL FLOW VEERS AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD OVERALL BE WARM WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
FOR MID WEEK AND THEN WARMING TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH PREVAILING BKN0-SCT080 THROUGH 12Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
BKN040-060 AT INLAND SITES WITH DEVELOPING MVFR NEAR BKN025-030
ALONG THE COAST IN MARINE CLOUDS WITH ISOLD SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/FRI...MODERATE NRLY BREEZE WILL VEER TO NE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN WEAKEN TO A GENTLE ENE TO E BREEZE ON FRIDAY. SEAS DROP OFF
TO 2-3FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...POST FRONTAL ANTICYCLONE WILL DRIFT OFF THE SE COAST
AND BRIDGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS/FL
STRAITS...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. A LIGHT TO GENTLE ERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THRU THE
DAY...VEERING TO THE S/SE IN THE PREDAWN HRS OF SUN MRNG. THE ERLY
FETCH WILL PUSH A 2-3FT SWELL INTO THE LCL ATLC...RESULTING COMBINED
SEAS OF 2-3FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU THE
DAY...BUILDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE.

SUN-SUN-NIGHT...THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE OVER SOUTH FL WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE TO START THE WEEK...GENERATING A LIGHT TO GENTLE
SRLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC ON SUN...THEN S/SW ON MON. THE ERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ELEVATED SEAS THRU SUN AFTN...BTWN
3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE.

MON-MON NIGHT...A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL WEAKEN THE WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
FORCING THE LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE TO VEER TO THE S/SW. THESE WINDS
WILL SERVE TO DAMPEN OUT THE ERLY SWELL...ALLOWING SEAS TO DIMINISH
TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...THEN 1-2FT
NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS THE
WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO CENTRAL FL...BCMG NW THRU THE DAY THEN N/NE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS AOB 2FT...EXCEPT 2-3FT IN THE GULF STREAM N OF FT.
PIERCE INLET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  53  71  62  79 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  54  74  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  60  74  67  80 /  10  20  10  10
VRB  61  76  67  80 /  10  20  10  10
LEE  50  73  59  81 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  52  73  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  54  74  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  61  76  68  80 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BRAGAW





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