Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 220856
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
456 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Higher Rain Chances Today into Saturday...
...Hazardous Boating and Surf Conditions This Weekend...

Today...Higher moisture and an increase in easterly flow will
overspread the area behind a weak trough axis pushing westward.
This will produce noticeably higher rain chances first along the
coast this morning, then spreading to the interior by afternoon.
Adding to the instability is a trough aloft dropping into the
northeast Gulf of Mexico. The resulting cooler temps aloft (-8C
to -9C) will produce a chance for thunder. Have drawn 50 to 60
percent PoPs for the area and locally heavy rain will be possible.
The increased clouds and precip coverage should hold max temps to
the mid 80s along the Volusia coast and upper 80s/near 90
elsewhere. Tonight...moist easterly flow will continue so have
kept 40 PoP along the coast, decreasing to 20 PoP far interior.
Min temps quite mild in the upper 70s along the coast due to
onshore flow.

SAT-SUN...Over the weekend, TC Maria is still projected to move NNW-
N-NNE along a track east of the Bahamas and well east of the FL
peninsula having hurricane strength as it exploits the weakness in
the ridge and follows in the wake of the now diminishing TC Jose.
This will locally support a brisk onshore low-level flow E-ENE for
Sat becoming NE for Sun as the pressure gradient temporarily
tightens then gradually loosens. Expect a wave of deeper atmospheric
moisture overspreading the area into Sat in the presence of greater
instability due to some cooling in the mid-levels. Breezy with
scattered to numerous showers and storms, with focus near the coast
during the morning transitioning west of I-95 late morning and
afternoon. However, by Sun, NE flow will have tapped some drier air
and convective activity will be subsequently curbed with only
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. Outlooked concern
for coastal/marine hazards with building high surf and high threat
of rip currents across weekend due to shoreward propagating large
swells. Max temps in the upper 80s to near 90, with min temps low
to mid 70s.

MON-THU...As TC Maria lifts farther north toward the Mid-Atlantic
waters early next week, backside flow will foster N-NE trajectories
and maintain the drier airmass keeping rain chances generally below
normal. Isolated to widely scattered convection will give way to
null PoPs by mid-week. The weakening pressure gradient into mid-week
will allow winds to become dampened to near light at times. Max
temps will be near climo in the upper 80s/near 90. Min temps in the
low to mid 70s.

Dangerous surf and rip currents will continue at the beaches
through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
A higher coverage of showers and isolated storms today. Best
chances will occur along the coast this morning then
transitioning to the interior terminals this afternoon. Then
showers moving onshore from the Atlc will refocus rain chances at
the coastal terminals tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...A weak inverted trough along the FL east coast
will push westward. Behind this trough axis, an increase in
moisture and easterly flow will bring scattered to numerous
showers and isolated storms to the coastal waters. Northeast to
east winds 5-10 knots early this morning will increase 10 to 15
knots this afternoon as Hurricane Maria gains latitude near 71W.
As a result, seas will begin to build late today across the north
and central waters (north of Sebastian Inlet). ALthough winds will
remain below 20 knots, seas 7 to 8 feet are expected well offshore
by late in the day and 9 feet tonight. So have initiated a Small
Craft Advisory beginning late this afternoon for the offshore
waters of Volusia and Brevard counties. This Advisory will need to
expand to include all the waters by Saturday.

SAT-SUN...Hazardous boating conditions this weekend due to
increasing onshore wind flow and large swells coming in from TC
Maria. E-NE winds 10-15 knots nearshore increasing to 15 to 20
knots, teamed with 15-20 knots for the offshore waters for Sat. Then
gradually diminishing back from 15 to 20 knots early Sun to 10-15
knots all waters by Sun Night. Seas 6-8 feet nearshore and 8-12 feet
offshore Sat, and then for Sun 7-10 feet nearshore and 10-12 feet
offshore. Seas slower to subside.

MON-TUE...TC Maria will track N-NNE toward the waters well east of
the Carolinas during the period pulling farther away from greatly
influencing the Florida waters. Although winds will become northerly
around 10 knots, continued large swells will keep seas slower to
subside and remain at or above SCA criteria. Nearshore seas 6-8 feet
Mon and 5-7 feet Tue. Offshore seas 7-10 feet Mon and 6-8 feet Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  75  85  75 /  60  40  60  20
MCO  90  74  87  74 /  50  30  60  20
MLB  88  77  86  76 /  60  40  60  30
VRB  88  77  86  76 /  60  40  60  30
LEE  90  73  88  73 /  50  20  60  20
SFB  89  73  86  74 /  50  40  60  20
ORL  90  74  87  73 /  50  40  60  20
FPR  88  77  86  76 /  60  40  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Monday
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Sharp


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