Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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062
FXUS62 KMLB 120130
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
830 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...COOL TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A PLEASANT/SEASONAL DAY ON FRIDAY...

MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. LOWS IN
THE 40S. FORECAST ON TRACK. FRESHEN WORDING.

.AVIATION...VFR.

.MARINE...LIGHT TO CALM WIND EARLY BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA IS PUSHED SOUTH BY ELONGATED
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COMBINED SEAS AT TOP OF THE
HOUR WERE AROUND 5 FEET WITH A 5 FOOT 8 SECOND SWELL. THE TWO
SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 1 AND 3
FOOT SEAS WITH A 1 FOOT SWELL COMPONENT.

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 154 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

CURRENT-TONIGHT...TURNING INTO A PLEASANT DAY AFTER A COLD START TO
THE MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL TRANSLATE INTO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO S/C FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR CALM THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES STILL POISED TO DROP OFF
RAPIDLY AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL BE WARMER...BUT
STILL COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. LOWEST VALUES WILL OCCUR
OVER THE INTERIOR WITH LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS AND NEAR THE
COAST/BARRIER ISLANDS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LOWER
40S FORECAST FOR MANY INTERIOR SITES. SUSPECT A FEW NORMALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS MAY FIND THEIR WAY INTO THE U30S...THOUGH DO NOT
ANTICIPATE PATCHY FROST WILL BE AN ISSUE.

FRI...PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH COOL MORNING LOWS FINDING
THEIR WAY INTO THE L70S MOST AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STILL
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A BIT OF A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
IN THE DAY. SWRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER FRI
EVENING WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO NRN AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN LOWER 60S VOLUSIA COAST TO MID-UPPER 60S
FAR NRN INTERIOR. HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER AROUND 70 FOR SRN
ZONES. NW WINDS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND BREEZY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS ARE FCST TO VEER TO THE NE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST SAT NIGHT WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NW OF
INTERSTATE 4 TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50 S CSTL AREAS. EXPECT SOME MARINE
STRATOCU TO MOVE ONSHORE BUT WILL KEEP ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE ATLC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUN-WED... PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
140-160KT ZONAL JET STREAK SPANNING THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE N OF
THE 30TH PARALLEL PLOWS ITS WAY ACRS THE CONUS. TROFFING PATTERN
OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL EJECT INTO THE NW ATLC ON SUN...FOLLOWED
RAPIDLY BY A SECOND TROF THAT WILL DVLP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPR
MIDWEST LATE SUN/ERLY MON AS THE JET PUSHES FEEDS ITS ENERGY ACRS
THE CENTRAL CONUS.

BACK DOOR FRONT WITH ATTENDANT NRLY WIND SURGE WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL FL ON SUN BUT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT LATE SUN NIGHT AS HI
PRES BUILDS OFF THE SERN SEABOARD...FORCING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SE.
THE DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ERODE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
MAY ALLOW A FEW COASTAL SHRAS TO DVLP SHOWERS SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT...
SPREADING INLAND ON MONDAY AS WINDS FRESHEN OUT OF THE SE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THE FRONT SWINGS THRU
THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
PATTERN...PWATS EXPECTED TO PEAK BTWN 1.0"-1.2" FOR 12-24HRS. WILL
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT OR BELOW 50PCT. GFS/ECMWF IN CONT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...LEANING TOWARD CLEARING THE
STATE BY TUE AFTN. TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO AVG THRU THE PD...BUT
NOT BY MORE THAN 10F.

WED NIGHT-THU...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST ON
THU ALLOWING NORTHERLY FLOW WED NIGHT TO VEER TO THE NE DURING THE
DAY ON THU. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS TODAY-TONIGHT BECOMING NEAR
CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA PROVIDING A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LLVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES INTO SOUTH FL
ON FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH STILL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRI.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. SW-WSW WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY
ON FRI 10-15 KTS WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO NORTH
FL LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-FRI...VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS FORECAST TO
BECOME SWRLY/WSW THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KTS CONTINUING
INTO FRI INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BY LATE
DAY. THIS THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO
NORTH FLORIDA. SEAS 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE FALLING TO
2-3 AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK FRI MORNING...POTENTIALLY BACK UP TO 4 FT
WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE BY LATE FRI AFTN.

SAT-TUE...DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMES NW TO
NORTH AND GUSTY ON SATURDAY WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING...AND HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM. WINDS TO 15-20
KNOTS FROM THE NNE/NE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED OVER
THE ATLC. WINDS WILL VEER TO ENE SUNDAY AND SE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. APPEARS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STAY UP TO SUPPORT 15-20 KNOTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SEAS TO 6-7 FT OFFSHORE INTO LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL KEEPING MARINE CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...VERY DRY/COOL AIRMASS
REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD
LOW MIN RH`S IN THE 20S/30S ONCE AGAIN. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TODAY
WITH POOR/FAIR DISPERSIONS.

FRI...DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SLOW MODERATION OF MOISTURE
VALUES. MAINLY A SWRLY FLOW WITH SPEEDS STRONGER THAN THE PAST DAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. MIN
RH VALUES 30-35PCT FOR 4-6HRS MAINLY W OF I-95. DISPERSIONS BECOMING
GENERALLY GOOD INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT POOR/FAIR TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  45  74  49  62 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  46  74  52  70 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  45  72  51  67 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  45  73  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  49  74  51  67 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  46  74  51  67 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  49  72  52  68 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  44  72  47  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....VOLKMER



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