Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 170901 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FL WITH EVENING RAOBS
MEASURING PWAT VALUES BTWN 2.0"-2.2". LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED H100-H70 TROF EXTENDING FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS TO THE
NE GOMEX...ASSOCD WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
ALOFT...A FEW POCKETS OF NOTEWORTHY MID LVL VORTICITY OVER THE
GOMEX/N FL...UPR LVL DIVERGENCE IS WEAK AS THE CLOSEST H30-H20 JET
STREAK IS LAGGING BACK OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY. MID LVL TEMPS ARE
RUNNING BTWN 7-8C AT H70...AND ARND -7C AT H50...RESULTING IN
UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ARND 5.5C/KM.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
A BROAD SFC LOW OVER GA/SC WILL SLOWLY CRANK THE STATIONARY FRONT
INTO CENTRAL FL. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW...HOWEVER...AS THE JET STREAK
HAS A STRONG ZONAL ORIENTATION THAT PROVIDE LITTLE SWD PUSH. ATLC
RIDGE OVER S FL STRAITS WILL SLOW IT FURTHER...BUT IS QUITE WEAK AND
WILL NOT BE ABLE STOP THE FRONT AS THE LOW LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD.

DEEP MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A THE MID LVL VORTICITY SHOULD ALLOW NMRS
SHRAS AND SCT TSRAS TO DVLP...BUT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE LOW
LVL AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAK MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. FURTHERMORE...DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE MID/UPR LVL
CLOUD DECKS THAT WILL HINDER SFC HEATING. EVEN SO...CANNOT OVERLOOK
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLC/GOMEX THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING THRU
THE EVENING...ONCE SFC TEMPS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS...
PRECIP WILL LIKELY AREAWIDE. OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST...STRONG/SVR TSTM THREAT WILL BE QUITE LOW. SCT SHRAS/TSRAS AFT
SUNSET MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MORNING BUT WILL END AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NW AND PUSH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO CENTRAL FL.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR AVG...
GENERALLY IN THE M/U80S. NO MEANINGFUL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

THU-SAT...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE ERN
CONUS AND WRN ATLC...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A CUTOFF LOW
(ALBEIT ELONGATED WITH A POS TILTED AXIS) ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL
AND EXTENDING INTO THE ADJCT ATLC. DEW PT FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SWD OVER THE REGION AND THEN STALL NEAR
LAKE OKEE AS WEAK LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD.
AFTER AN INITIALLY DRIER DAY ON THU...MEAN MOISTURE WILL SHOW SOME
SLIGHT NWD CREEP INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POPS COMING BACK UP TO NEAR
THE CLIMO NORMS (40-50). DEEPEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN CLOSER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRI-SAT COMPARED TO THU OWING TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

SUN-TUE...
THE GFS/ECM MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE SPEED IN
WHICH THE (BRIEFLY) CUTOFF LOW OVHD OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH AND
EJECTS NEWD. THE GFS IS FASTER...AND A BIT STRONGER WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW/WAVE...WHICH DRIES THINGS OUT TO A LITTLE MORE
EXTENT THAN THE ECM SUN. BOTH MODELS SHOW ANOTHER EARLY FALL SEASON
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENCROACHING UPON THE NORTHERN PENINSULA BY TUE...
POSSIBLY SAGGING SWD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
BUT TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE AT LENGTH ABOUT ANY SWD PUSH JUST YET.
OVERALL POP TREND WILL BE SLOWLY UPWARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 17/14Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES WITH W/SW SFC WNDS ARND
5KTS...CIGS AOA FL120...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. BTWN 17/14Z-17/17Z...
SFC WNDS BCMG W BTWN 5-10KTS...PREVAILING CIGS DCRSG TO FL060-080
WITH CHC OF MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES. BTWN 17/17Z-17/24...OCNL WRLY SFC
WND G18KTS...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS. BTWN 18/00Z-18/03Z...
SFC WINDS BCMG W/NW AOB 5KTS...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS
ENDING...CIGS AOA FL120.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
LOW LVL TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS TO THE NE GOMEX
HAS SUPPRESSED THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO S FL AND THE FL STRAITS.
INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO WX FEATURES WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE WRLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC THRU THE DAY...BCMG W/NW
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS DRIFTS INTO S FL. LATEST OBS FROM BUOY010
SHOW THE MUCH ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD STARTING TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LCL ATLC...THOUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN INDICATED
BY THE WAVE MODELS. SEAS WILL BUILD THRU THE DAY... REACHING 3-4FT
NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE WITH DOMINANT PDS AOA 13SEC. THIS MAY
CAUSE VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS NEAR THE MOUTHS OF INLETS DURING THE
OUTGOING MORNING TIDE.

RIP CURRENTS: LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL START TO AFFECT THE COAST WED
MORNING...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

THU-SUN...
ANY RESIDUAL SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL BE WANING THU...WITH MINIMAL
WIND CHOP INDICATED INTO THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15KT
WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2-3FT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  89  73 /  60  30  20  10
MCO  90  73  92  72 /  60  30  20  10
MLB  89  73  87  75 /  60  40  20  10
VRB  89  72  89  73 /  60  40  20  10
LEE  89  73  93  74 /  60  30  20  10
SFB  90  73  92  75 /  60  30  20  10
ORL  90  73  91  75 /  60  30  20  10
FPR  88  72  89  72 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI




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