Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 191226
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
826 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY UPDATES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND ZONES FORECASTS TO REMOVE
THE TORNADO WATCH BOX. ALSO MADE CHANGES TO POPS AND THE WEATHER
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
AND LOW CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST
FLORIDA WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE OF AN AVIATION CONCERN WITH LOW CEILINGS
AND SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT DRIZZLE AND VERY LOW CLOUD
HEIGHTS.

PREVIOUS AFD
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...INTERESTING FORECAST EVOLVING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY AS SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF SLOWLY
SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA AND OFF THE EAST COAST
THIS EVENING. DRIVING IT WILL BE THE DEEPENING CLOSED LOW THAT ALSO
MOVES ALONG THE SAME PATH WITH 500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -16 TO -17C
SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. ADDING TO THIS IS THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT ABOVE 850MB THAT IS NOW OVERSPREADING THE
PENINSULA...THOUGH LEVELS BELOW THIS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
MOIST.

MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT LINE OF INTEREST PUSHING OFF THE
TREASURE COAST BY MID MORNING WITH INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL LIKELY BE LOWER TOPPED GIVEN WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL LIE...BUT
WITH THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE AND THE LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD CAN`T RULE
OUT A STORM OR TWO AND HAVE KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BECOMES THE MAIN DRIVER OF ACTIVITY.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY BY THE EVENING THOUGH A FEW LIGHT WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE VOLUSIA/N BREVARD COAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUN-TUE...DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL FL WILL
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE EWD AWAY FROM STATE. BREEZY CONDS WITH A SMALL
CHC FOR LOW-TOPPED COASTAL SHOWERS FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD
COS DUE TO SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT COUPLED WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE
WRAPPING SSW FROM THE ATLC. BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
SETTLES SWD INTO FL WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WED-FRI...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE SERN CONUS
DRIVES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AND THEN OFFSHORE GA/NORTH FL
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. CURRENT GRIDDED POPS SHOW 10-14PCT
FOR THE FAR NRN CWA...AND MAY ACTUALLY WIND UP NEEDING A SMALL RAIN
CHC SOMEWHERE IN THE 06Z-18Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF FL WILL SLOWLY BUILD SEWD INTO THE ADJCT ATLC...RESULTING
IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF STRONG SHRA/TSRA FROM KTTS-KOBE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AFFECTING COASTAL TERMINALS BETWEEN
19/09Z AND 19/13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST. MID
LEVEL DRY AIR BEHIND THIS LINE WILL KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED THROUGH
REMAINDER OF DAY...BUT ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH A FEW TSRA POSSIBLE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KLEE-SFB-KEVB
IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW. TEMPO MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY EVEN OUTSIDE OF SHRA. DRIER CONDITIONS
AFTER 19/22Z...THOUGH -SHRA/DZ MAY LINGER NORTH/EAST OF KDED-KTIX
THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...LOCAL BUOYS SHOW THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
DECREASED TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS AT BUOY
41009 HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 7 FEET. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY WEST THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.

HAVE CUT BACK THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH MID MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE TREASURE LEG
PORTION IS NOW BEING SHADOWED BY THE BAHAMAS. SEAS UP TO 7 FEET IN
THE OFFSHORE LEGS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.

SUN-WED...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH OF SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOCAL PGRAD TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE ERN
CONUS HIGH AND THE DEPARTING ATLC LOW. STRONG SURGE OF NW TO N WINDS
WILL PUSH DOWN THE ATLC DURING THE DAY...REMAINING STRONG/GUSTY AS
THEY VEER TO N-NNE ON MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
STARTING MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SWD ACROSS FL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  62  75  62 /  40  20  20  10
MCO  81  61  80  62 /  30  10  10  10
MLB  80  63  79  66 /  30  10  10  10
VRB  81  62  79  64 /  50  10  10  10
LEE  80  60  79  60 /  30  10  10  10
SFB  81  61  79  61 /  40  20  10  10
ORL  81  61  80  62 /  30  10  10  10
FPR  82  61  79  64 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BLOTTMAN





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