Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 010846
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
446 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...A WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL WEAKEN/FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE BUT THE AIRMASS IS TOO
DRY FOR IT TOO HAVE MUCH IMPACT EXCEPT FOR SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD
BUT THE STRONGEST DIFLUENCE ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA SO
THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL PRODUCE AN E-SE WIND FLOW. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION BUT A COUPLE OF CONVERGENT CLOUD LINES OFF THE BAHAMAS
COULD CROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90
INTERIOR AND MID 80S COAST WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WELL
SHORT OF ANY RECORDS.

MON-TUE...W ATLANTIC SFC RIDGE SITUATED SUCH AS TO PERSIST A SE
MARITIME FLOW PATTERN FOR MON. FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING POPS MODEST MOSTLY WITH EMBEDDED ECSB. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY INLAND DUE TO PROPAGATION...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO
DRIFT BACK TO NNE IN STEERING FLOW. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WILL SHOW 20 PERCENT POPS. TUE WILL FIND GATHERING/DEEPENING
MOISTURE CONCENTRATING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND STRETCHED
ACROSS S GA AND N FL. SFC RIDGE RETREATS SEAWARD/SOUTHWARD AS LOW-
LVL WIND FLOW VEERS SW. A MID-LVL S/W DROPS SE OUT OF THE MIDWEST TO
KICK UP A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TO HELP SWING
THE FRONT TOWARD THE PNSLA LATE. 500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN MINUS 10-12
DEG C WITH SFC HEATING NEAR 90 DEG SHOULD ALLOW MORE PRODUCTIVE
CONVECTION. STEERING WILL BE MORE PROMINENTLY WSW AND TEND TO FOCUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH AN EAST COAST LATE AFTERNOON SKEW.
INCREASED COVERAGE OVERALL. WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN U80S/L90S...
EXCEPT M80S IMMEDIATE COAST. MIN TEMPS U60S/L70S.

WED-SAT...INTRIGUING SITUATION SETTING UP FOR WED AS THE ONCE
SLUGGSIH FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH DOWN THE PNSLA. EXACT TIMING A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT GFS HAS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARRIVING EARLY WED AND THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
READILY EJECTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AREA WILL REALIZE BEST
SHOT AT DISTRIBUTED RAINFALL WITH EMPHASIS NORTH OF ORLANDO THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF ORLANDO THRU EARLY EVENING. INCREASING
MID LYR H7-H5 FLOW TO 30-40 KNOTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP WITH
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND HAIL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
S OF ORLANDO DURING LATE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS IN THE U60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEG LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD STILL MANAGE U80S S FORECAST
AREA.

UPPER PATTERN GREATLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS FROM WED INTO
WEEKEND AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOOTS N THRU THE CENTRAL U.S.
FOSTERING A TROUGH PLUNGING S OVER THE EAST U.S. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THU WITH LOCAL POST FRONTAL DRYING...THEN RE-INFORCED
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF CONTINENTAL DRY AIR BY FRI WITH CONTINUED
NW-N FLOW. PLEASANT AS MAX TEMPS DIALING BACK TO L80S EACH DAY
THU-SAT...WITH MIN TEMPS L/M60S THU WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS
FINDING U50S FRI-SAT MORN.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 14Z.
E/SE WINDS 10 TO 12 KNOTS EXCEPT A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR 15 KNOTS
AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTN BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
PRODUCE AN E/SE WIND FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIND CHOP OF 3 FT TODAY INCREASING TO 4 FEET TONIGHT MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

MON-TUE...GRADUAL INCREASE IN OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL
FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY THRU MID-WEEK. SFC RIDGE OVER W ATLANTIC
PROVIDES S/SE PREVAILING FLOW FOR MON BUT THEN BEGINS TO GET PUSHED
SEAWARD/SOUTHWARD FOR TUE ALLOWING FLOW TO BECOME SW AHEAD OF A
FRONT NEARING N FL. SEAS 2-3 FEET BECOMING 3-4 FEET NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND 3-4 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FEET OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS.

WED-THU...FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU THE WATERS ON WED
CLEARING THE PNSLA BY THU. WINDS BECOME SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE WED...WITH
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG STORMS S OF CAPE CANAVERAL. POST
FRONTAL WINDS THEN BECOME NW THU WITH AN ENSUING DRY PERIOD INTO
THE WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS BECOME ELEVATED JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...BUT FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO LOWER NEAR 40 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH E/SE WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH...A LITTLE STRONGER NEAR
THE COAST FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES...ERC VALUES CONTINUE TO
CREEP UPWARDS.

INCREASING OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHTNING STORMS EACH SUCCESSIVE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR WED WITH PASSING FRONT. S/SE WINDS
MON BECOME S/SW TUE INTO WED...SHIFTING W/NW BEHIND FRONT LATE
WED INTO THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  70  87  70 /  10  10  10  20
MCO  90  70  91  70 /  10  10  20  20
MLB  85  72  87  71 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  86  71  87  70 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  90  70  90  71 /  10  10  20  20
SFB  90  70  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
ORL  90  70  90  71 /  10  10  20  20
FPR  85  71  86  68 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....DS


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