Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 301347
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
947 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

TODAY...WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH WAS SAGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA.  THIS IS MAINLY A DRY AIR BOUNDARY AS MAX TEMPS WILL RISE
WELL INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

MORNING SOUNDING AT CAPE CANAVERAL SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER HAD
LOWERED TO 1.48 INCHES.  WHILE WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONTINUED TO SHOW
DRIER AIR ALOFT SAGGING SOUTHWARD...CANAVERAL PROFILERS HAVE SHOWN
LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY LOSING THEIR NORTHERLY COMPONENT...SO DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN LAYERED MOISTURE VALUES. THIS LOOKED TO BE
THE RECENT TREND IN GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER AT OKEECHOBEE...STAYING
CLOSE TO 1.8 INCHES.

THEREFORE DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGE TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SEA AND
OKEECHOBEE BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS.

CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUNDINGS SHOWED QUITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...MINUS
4-5 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 500 MB...SO WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRIER AIR JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE ON THE CANAVERAL SOUNDING...DEEP CONVECTION FROM
THERE NORTH LOOKS UNLIKELY.  WILL KEEP THE SMALL POPS NEAR THE NORTH
COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE COULD GENERATE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE AS DAYTIME HEATING CLOUDS FORM BUT MOSTLY VFR
THIS MORNING.  THE MAIN CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF
KISM-KMCO-KTIX THIS AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MIGHT BE ABLE TO
PROPAGATE CONVECTION THAT FAR NORTH TOWARDS EARLY EVENING BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT FLOW INDICATED OVER THE WATERS AS WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
SETTLING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS EASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THE
MAIN MARINER CONCERN WOULD BE SCATTERED STORMS THAT FORM THIS
AFTERNOON OVER LAND AND PUSH BACK ACROSS THE COAST.  THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR THIS IS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. A SMALL CHANCE EXISTS A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH TO ABOUT COCOA BEACH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK




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