Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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848
FXUS62 KMLB 231406
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
930 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
...High Risk for Life Threatening Rip Currents Today at Area
Beaches...

Current...Weak low and mid level wave moving through south FL is now
slowly beginning to move offshore. Deep east and southeast flow
along with mesoscale convergence provided lift for some heavy
showers (some thunder) across the Treasure Coast. Few precipitation
amounts reported to nearly 3 inches over the mainland and higher
amounts right along the beaches. Heavy rain was further aided by
timing with enhanced nocturnal frictional convergence along the
coast.

This afternoon...Wave feature along the southeast coast will be slow
to move further offshore with area of rain shifting east as well.
Evidence of mesoscale lift on the wane reflected in rapid decrease
in shra coverage now occurring over southwest sections of state.
Precipitation this afternoon will become move scattered in nature
and influenced from sea breeze boundary interactions (late) and
other mesocale interactions. Cloud cover will impact the strength of
sea breezes and delay their development. Latest mesoscale models,
HRRR and local ARW are not showing that much coverage later today.
Will continue forecast for chance of shra/ts, but will trim
percentages slightly north. Temp forecast slightly adjusted for
ongoing conditions/cloud cover effects.

prev disc...
 Mon-Tue...A closed upr low over the deep south early
Mon will migrate to the SC coast Mon night as ill defined sfc low
pres located just E of the state races quickly NE ahd of the upr
feature. Some morning cloudiness and showers will become shunted E
over the Atlc waters during the morning as dryer air wraps around
the departing area of low pressure through the remainder of the day.
Cooler air will work into the area for Mon night with steady
clearing as temps drop into the U50s to L60s. Mostly sunny skies Tue
with Wly breezes and temps rebounding well into the 80s. Expect
rapid drying as humidity in the Lwr to M30s is forecast area wide.

Mid-Late Week...A dry and relatively warm forecast continues
through next weekend as high pressure initially anchored over the
Wrn Atlc basin dominates lcl weather. Development of onshore flow
from the Atlc by around next Thu-Fri will help temper low RH
conditions, however moisture wl remain too low for notable chcs
of rainfall through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gradual increase in cloud cover area wide with low pressure
system over the southern peninsula and approaching upper
trough/weak front to the north. MVFR cigs/vsbys in showery pcpn
today, especially southward. Highest pcpn potential south of MCO,
though there will be a sea breeze collision over the interior late
today/evening. Improving conds later this evening/overnight as
drier air accompany`s weak boundary`s approach from the north.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight...A weak disturbance will move across the
south-central peninsula during the day ahead of a weak front that
will push into north FL in the afternoon, then near the central
peninsula by daybreak Mon morning. SE winds will veer to westerly
overnight with the approach of the weather system. Wind speeds
generally AOB 15 kts, except will increase to 15 to 20 kts late this
afternoon/evening well offshore. Seas 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft
offshore, but will build well offshore up to around 6 ft this
evening/overnight. Small craft should exercise caution late
today/tonight well offshore.

Scattered showers with isolated storms are forecast with greatest
chances south of the Cape. Coverage may approach likely south of
Sebastian Inlet. A few stronger cells may be capable of producing
wind gusts up to around 35 kts.

Mon-Tue...Gusty Wly winds in the wake of a departing low pressure
area will create higher sea state over the offshore waters with
seas around 4-5 ft beyond the immediate coast into Non night.
Winds and seas will diminish Tue as system draws away from the
area and high pressure re-establishes over the wrn Atlc basin.

Mid-Late Week...Favorable marine conditions during the period with
seas around 2 to 4 ft and winds remaining around 10 to 15 kts or
less.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blottman
IMPACT....Spratt



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