Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 040104
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
904 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT...
EAST/WEST BOUNDARY COLLISION GENERATED ONE EVENING SEVERE STORM OVER
SOUTH LAKE COUNTY...AFTER THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE GENERATED A FEW
STRONG STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE
SOUTH INTERIOR. FARTHER NORTH...THE EAST/WEST COLLISION PRODUCED
LITTLE ACTIVITY...AS IT APPEARED TO BE A SLIGHTLY DRIER THERE. WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO DUE TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
AND LINGERING POCKETS OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DEBRIS
RAIN. THEN GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

ON SAT...MOISTENING IS INDICATED WORKING UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
THIS SHOULD INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. PROGRESSION SHOULD
BE FROM SOUTHEAST SECTIONS AROUND MIDDAY NORTHWARD TO LAKE AND VOLUSIA
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHERE THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE EXPECTED.  LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER PAST SUNSET ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHICH MIGHT CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS WITH EVENING FESTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AROUND THE TERMINALS AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.  MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE TREASURE COAST 16Z-18Z SAT...SPREADING NORTH AND
INLAND. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
NO WIND/WAVE CONCERNS WITH AXIS OF ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE NEARBY.
HIGHER MOISTURE IS SHOWN WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR MARINE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE
NIGHT/MORNING.  THE AFTERNOON STORMS THAT GET GOING OVER LAND MAY
AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL AND COULD EVEN BE PUSHED INTO THE NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC BY WEAK SOUTHWEST STEERING LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

LASCODY/SEDLOCK


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