Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 250038
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
835 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Lone cluster of showers along the Kissimmee River near Basinger in
the process of dissipating. Diurnal convection wound down quickly as
the ECSB pushed quickly into western Florida late this afternoon.
Will throw out a quick update to remove late afternoon precip from
the forecast. Otherwise, temps/winds look fine. Another clear and
comfortable night with light winds and mins in the U60s inland and
L70s along the coast. A few L-M60s around Lake George/UCLA Forest.
.AVIATION...VFR/BECMG SKC by 03Z where it already isn`t.
MARINE...Freshening easterlies have pushed seas up into the 3-4FT
range over most of the MAOR this evening. Based on slightly lower
seas heights at 41010, there may be some 2-3ft seas in the Volusia
County waters, but by and large, expect 3-4FT seas to spread across
that area as well. Current forecast looks fine.
.Previous Discussion... /issued 333 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016/
WED-THU...At the surface, high pressure will establish itself off
the NC/SC coast, keeping winds onshore. Aloft, a piece of the upper
level trough that has been prevalent over the eastern seaboard will
slowly cut off over the Bahamas. Dry NW flow aloft should help
temper rain chances through the period with PoPs at or below 10
percent. Temperatures around normal through the week with dewpoints
slowly increasing in the onshore flow.
FRI-MON...Run to run model differences continue to make this period
challenging, however, the latest guidance seems to have come into
better agreement regarding the expected evolution of the mid and
upper level cutoff low and any surface-related reflection. Both the
GFS and ECMWF have converged on a weak surface low developing east
of the state while gradually moving north toward the Carolinas. This
would keep us on the slightly drier and more subsident side of the
system, tempering overall rain chances through the weekend.
Regardless, sufficient low level moisture will allow for at least
chance PoPs in the forecast through the period.
Isolated showers and storms have been popping up along the inland
moving east coast sea breeze boundary. This boundary will push
into west central Florida by early evening. A few lingering
boundaries may continue to generate isolated cells until sunset
mainly over inland terminals. Drier air will advect in from the
east overnight and the forecast will be dry/VFR through Wednesday.
Tonight...High pressure shifting off the Carolina coast will build a
few millibars which will increase the gradient, bringing mainly 10-15
knot east winds. Seas will build to 3-4 feet over most of the
waters. This east flow will also bring in drier air so no showers
WED-THU...High pressure will establish itself off the NC/SC coast,
freshening the easterly flow occasionally up to 15 to 20 knots
offshore. Seas will gradually build to 3 to 4 feet and up to 5 feet
FRI-SAT...Weak low pressure expected to develop well east of the
state while gradually moving northward. Easterly flow remains in
place Friday before local gradient relaxes somewhat on Saturday.
Seas up to 4 feet nearshore and 5 feet offshore.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 67 84 67 82 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 68 87 66 86 / 10 0 0 10
MLB 71 84 70 83 / 10 0 0 10
VRB 70 85 69 84 / 10 0 10 10
LEE 68 90 66 87 / 10 0 0 10
SFB 67 87 66 85 / 10 0 0 10
ORL 69 87 68 85 / 10 0 0 10
FPR 69 84 68 84 / 10 0 10 20