Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 101747
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
947 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. LARGE WESTERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST
THURSDAY RAISING THE RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:34 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 1200Z GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. OVER THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT WE ARE FORECASTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT POSSIBILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE NEXT WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 09:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. FEW TO BKN CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT OR ABOVE 20K FT AGL. HZ POSBL THRU 15-18Z TMRW.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 10TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        77 IN 1988
SAN RAFAEL       77 IN 1988
NAPA             76 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    78 IN 1988
SFO AIRPORT      71 IN 1988
OAKLAND MUSEUM   76 IN 1988
OAKLAND AIRPORT  68 IN 2006
RICHMOND         73 IN 2006
LIVERMORE        79 IN 1918
MOUNTAIN VIEW    75 IN 1988
SAN JOSE         75 IN 1988
GILROY           77 IN 2006

MONTEREY         75 IN 2002
SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 1988
SALINAS          78 IN 2002
SALINAS AIRPORT  76 IN 2002
KING CITY        77 IN 2008

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:19 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: CANEPA


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