726
FXUS66 KMTR 050548
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1048 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 105 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Rainfall ending this afternoon from north to south. Some clearing
this afternoon with light isolated showers tonight. Mostly clear
Sunday with a warming trend on track for the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Although the main rain bands have moved out of our region, our
radar continues to stay on "precip" mode to monitor some of the
post-frontal cells lingering behind. Little to no concerns for
post-frontal convection as well, as the mid-level environment
lacks sufficient instability to produce lightning. The top three
places with the highest rainfall totals for the entire region in
the last 24 hours were Marin County (1-1.88 inches), San Mateo
County (0.90-1.64 inches), and Santa Cruz (1-1.61 inches). The
forecast continues to be on track for the next weather concern of
below average cold temperatures for tonight and Sunday night into
Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 105 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Rain unfolding as expected as of midday with the heaviest having
pushed through with the initial cold front this morning. Areas
from the Bay Area southward will continue to see light-to-moderate
rain into the this afternoon, but as of writing, observed amounts
are generally 0.6-1.5" with the highest amounts being in the
coastal ranges. Clearing will occur rather abruptly through this
afternoon and evening from north to south with visible satellite
showing a sharp cutoff in overcast cloud cover on the back side of
the front. We can expect some degree of isolated showers behind
the front tonight, but instability appears lacking overall which
would hinder the coverage and intensity of any post-frontal
showers a bit. No lightning strikes thus far neither, given the
fairly suppressed nature of the post-frontal convection. Can`t
rule out a strike or two as we go into tonight, but it`s a very
small chance.

Sunday looks to be clear and pleasant, despite chilly temps with
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 105 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

The next week is on track to be clear and dry with temps steadily
increasing each day into late week. Ridging dominates as we
settle into a more seasonal pattern. By Friday, expect temperatures
5-10 degrees above normal...mid-to-upper 80s for inland valleys,
upper 70s to lower 80s elsewhere, and upper 60s to lower 70s along
the coast. Friday may be a potential day to highlight an elevated
risk of heat-related illness for sensitive groups in urban areas
of the South Bay and interior East Bay valleys. Stay tuned to the
forecast as this will likely be, yet again, among the warmest
temps some have seen this year so far.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Post-frontal clearing will allow for VFR conditions and breezy
westerly/northwesterly winds through the TAF period. Rain showers
will be possible through Sunday morning, particularly for MRY and
SNS.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy westerly flow. VFR and
westerly winds to prevail through the TAF period with gusts up to
20 knots to be expected.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...As rain showers continue to traverse into
Monterey Bay, currently VFR with breezy easterly flow at MRY and VFR
with breezy westerly flow at SNS. VFR conditions and
westerly/northwesterly winds to prevail through the TAF period with
rain showers possible through Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1047 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024

Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes continue with isolated
showers over the coastal waters possible into Saturday night. Dry
conditions return and winds will diminish slightly beginning
Sunday  from a moderate to fresh breeze to a moderate breeze.
Gusty  northwesterly to northerly winds will return by the middle
of the  work week, continuing into the late week, as upper level
ridging and  surface high pressure builds.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry
     Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment/Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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