Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 231618
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
918 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:09 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GIVEN THE CLEAR START
TO THE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...HAVE NUDGED UP AFTERNOON
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE BAY AREA
REMAINS UNDER CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THESE AREAS TO SEE THE CLOUD COVER
BURN-OFF LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...TODAY
WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE STRONG RIDGE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNER REGION BEGINNING TO BUILD WESTWARD. MORE NOTABLE WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AFTER AN ACTIVE
DAY YESTERDAY, A MUCH QUIETER START TO THE DAY TODAY. SATELLITE
CURRENTLY SHOWS A COUPLE OF SMALL BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS WHILE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE THE SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES. MAIN STRATUS DECK IS WELL OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF OUR CWA TODAY. THAT WILL ALLOW AREAS TO THE SOUTH TO
QUICKLY WARM TODAY AS THE MAIN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND SPOTS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND INTO CALIFORNIA WHILE 850 MB TEMPS
INCREASE FROM 14-16C TO 21-24C OVER THE WEEKEND. SEA BREEZE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TO
THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S AT
THE COAST WITH 80S AND 90S INLAND. FAR INTERIOR SPOTS COULD TOP
100. IN OTHER WORDS, LOOK FOR A TYPICAL PERIOD OF WARM LATE JULY
WEATHER. MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT THE RETURN OF SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND FROM THE SOUTH -- MODIFIED
TOTAL TOTALS OFF THE GFS ARE OVER 30 IN PARTS OF MONTEREY COUNTY
ON SUNDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER UNTIL
NEWER RUNS OF THE NAM COME IN THAT GO THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK KEEPS WARMER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER THROUGH OUR AREA. SHOWERS AT THIS TIME LOOK UNLIKELY AS
THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE SW CONUS AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS ANY
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MOVING INTO OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THROUGH NEXT WEEK (CPC 6-10 DAY FORECAST GETS A 5 OUT OF 5 FOR
CONFIDENCE PLACING IT WELL ABOVE NORMAL).

FINALLY, WORTH NOTING THAT THE MONTEREY BAY BUOY SET A RECORD FOR
A WATER TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:05 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER BAY AREA TERMINALS TILL 18Z THIS MORNING.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15 KT WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR TO VFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING OVER
AREA TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATE AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO
15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:09 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC COUPLED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING SEA
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM NOON
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 6 PM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM NOON

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: LARRY

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