Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 261145

645 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

/12Z TAFS/
Main concerns this morning are IFR Cigs at most TAF sites. Should
see improvement to VFR by 15Z. May also see a few areas of dense fog
near terminals. Then afternoon scattered thunderstorms are
possible after 18Z/1PM and a few of these may become severe. The
best chance is at KABI this afternoon and evening. Main hazards
could be large hail and damaging winds.

IFR Cigs should redevelop overnight across most TAF sites as low level
jet pumps plenty of low level gulf moisture into the area.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015/

(Today and Tonight)

Will issue a Dense Fog Advisory for most of our eastern counties
until 10 AM as visibilities have lowered at or below 1/4 mile in
dense fog.  Light winds, clear skies, and plenty of ground moisture
from yesterday`s rainfall have led to this fog development.  A few
more counties may have to be added.

There is a risk of isolated severe thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening that could result in damaging winds, large hail and
possibly a tornado in West Central Texas.

The dryline front is expected to form across the region from Haskell
to Ozona.  East of this line, plenty of low level moisture will
result in high CAPE values ranging from 2000 to 5000 j/kg.  The
higher CAPE values will be across the eastern counties.  With strong
heating, satisfactory surface convergence, weak capping inversion, a
few storms may become rapidly severe late this afternoon and
evening.  The dryline will retreat to the west after sunset.  Expect
storms to dissipate before midnight.

Temperatures should climb into the low 90s this afternoon.


(Wednesday through Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected Wednesday. With weak
shortwave ridging and lack of a surface focus, our rain chances
should be minimal Wednesday and early Wednesday night. With the
approach of a stronger shortwave trough from the southwestern states
and northern Mexico, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will
increase from the west by late Wednesday night.

A lead wave will lift northeast across our area on Thursday, with
the main shortwave trough traversing the area Thursday night. We
have higher PoPs for showers and thunderstorms during this time
frame. As the shortwave progresses east, most of the showers and
storms Friday should gradually move east of our area, and we are
carrying the higher PoPs in our eastern counties. With higher rain
chances and increased cloud cover, daytime temperatures will not be
as warm Thursday and Friday.

A weak cold front is progged to sag south into west central Texas
this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially
near the front. Have some uncertainty on the specifics with forecast
timing and placement of the front.  The position and southward
progress of the front will likely be influenced by the extent of
convective activity.

By early next week, an upper ridge is forecast to build across the
southern and central Rockies, with our area on its eastern periphery
with northwest flow aloft. Holding on to slight chance PoPs for
showers and thunderstorms Monday, with rain chances diminishing by
Tuesday as the upper ridge shifts east into Texas.



Abilene  89  69  89  68  84 /  30  30  10  20  40
San Angelo  91  69  91  69  85 /  20  30  10  20  40
Junction  90  70  89  70  85 /  30  30  10  20  40


DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coleman...Concho...Jones...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Runnels...San Saba...Shackelford...



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