Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 232315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
615 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail tonight across West
Central Texas, as light north winds gradually shift around to
light southerly by morning. Stronger south and southeast winds
will develop on Monday with some gusts exceeding 25 knots at
both KABI and KSJT (Abilene and San Angelo).


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

(Tonight and Monday)

Good radiational cooling conditions will present itself tonight,
especially across eastern sections, along and east of a Junction
to Brownwood line. This region will have light winds through much
of the night, with lows expected in the lower 40s.

Look for warmer temperatures Monday as low level southerly flow
returns. Highs will be in the 80s.



Look for hot temperatures for this time of year on Tuesday along
with an increasing threat for the development of critical fire
weather conditions. High temperatures warming into the mid and
upper 90s, relative humidity values in the teens and gusty
southwest winds may create these fire weather conditions. A fast
moving shortwave trough racing across the Southern Plains,
embedded within strong upper level zonal flow, will result in the
development of a strong surface low across western Oklahoma by
Tuesday morning. A tight surface pressure gradient, south of this
low, will result in dry, gusty southwest winds across West
Central Texas. Then a cold front should sweep across the area on
Wednesday morning, resulting in cooler afternoon highs.


A strong upper level jet stream of 165 knots is progged to dive
into the Pacific Northwest Thursday night into Friday. As the
upper level jet continues to dig southeast towards Nevada, this
will allow a large upper low to deepen across the Four Corners by
Friday, placing much of the region in upper level southwesterly
flow. Combination of a surface dryline across the CWA, a possible
upper level disturbance, daytime heating and moisture could
result in a few thunderstorms forming on Friday.

Models prog the best lift associated with the Four Corners upper low
to track east across West Central Texas by Saturday evening and
Saturday night.  The GFS is further south with the track of the
upper low, while the ECMWF is further north. By splitting the
differences, it appears the best chance of storms could be Friday
evening along the dry line, with an even better chance of storms
possible by late afternoon or evening on Saturday.

Storms will continue to move east through the overnight as the
main upper trough moves across the area. Although it is still a
little too early to know the severe weather potential this far
out, normally these strong storm systems are notorious for
producing severe weather in late April. Please stay tuned. Look
for afternoon highs warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s
Thursday and Friday over much of the region.



Abilene  48  84  63  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  46  85  63  98 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  44  82  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  44  81  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  50  85  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       48  82  61  94 /   0   0   0   0




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