Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 260421
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1121 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

All terminals will be VFR through the night with the southeastern
terminals degrading to MVFR by mid-morning. Winds will be
southerly gusting 20-25 knots by noon at all terminals. An upper
level storm system will move through the area through the
afternoon and evening hours with thunderstorms expected at all
terminals.Some thunderstorms are expected to be severe with large
hail and damaging winds. Reduced visibilities and MVFR ceilings
will accompany the storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 608 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

All terminals are VFR early this evening. There is a chance for
showers and thunderstorms this evening into tonight, mainly for
sites south of I-20, and have kept the VCTS for the evening
hours. MVFR CIGs should make their way back into the southern
sites after 06Z tonight. MVFR ceilings should continue through the
morning hours at the southern terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The dryline has mixed east to a line from near Childress to east of
Sweetwater, then bends back to the southwest to east of Sterling
City and Big Lake. However, it appears to have lost momentum at this
time, and is not progressing much farther, and will certainly begin
retreating in the next few hours. As a matter of fact, radar imagery
indicates a north/northwesterly movement in southern
Irion/Reagan/Upton counties as of 3 PM. With the cap likely
weakening, and very unstable air in place, have broadened slight
chance thunderstorm chances north to areas generally along and east
of a Throckmorton, to Abilene, to San Angelo line for this
afternoon. However, not convinced that we will see initiation in our
area. Although we are very unstable, we do think any coverage of
showers/storms will be isolated in our area. And while there is a
Slight Risk for severe weather in our area, due to the lack of
coverage and lack of confidence in development, have not inserted
severe wording into grids. We also have a lot of moisture to work
with, so if thunderstorms can develop along/east of the dryline,
they will likely be able to produce locally heavy rainfall.

Have not made much change to the overnight precipitation chances as
an upper level shortwave is still expected to move across the area,
interacting with elevated instability and increasing chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms after 00Z this evening. We will
continue to have copious amounts of moisture to work with, resulting
in the chance for locally heavy rainfall, and localized flooding
with any thunderstorms tonight. In addition, the Slight Risk will
also continue through the overnight hours with the main hazards
being large hail and dangerous lightning.

Tomorrow, as the main upper level low now over southern California
approaches the area, large-scale lift will increase, and embedded
shortwave energy will likely move across the area in southwest flow.
As the dryline mixes east into the area, we should see better
chances than today for scattered thunderstorms developing across our
western counties, then moving northeast. With ample instability, and
increasing deep layer shear, severe thunderstorms will again be
possible with any storms that develop. The main hazards will
continue to be large hail, damaging winds, dangerous lightning, and
an isolated tornado or two.

Lows tonight will drop into the lower to middle 70s, and highs
tomorrow will be similar today in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night and Friday)

Thunderstorms are a good bet Thursday night into Friday morning
across much of West Central Texas. Also. severe weather is possible
Thursday evening. The combination of increasing large scale ascent
and a dryline just west of the area will provide focus for
thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday morning. Some storms may be
severe Thursday evening due to strong instability and 0-6KM shear of
40 to 45 knots. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging
winds and an isolated tornado or two. Also, the rainfall amounts
from the models are looking kind of high. Local rainfall amounts
of 2 to 3 inches are not out of the question, especially across
the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country as PW values will be
around 1.5 inches and surface dewpoints will remain around 70. The
heavy rainfall amounts may cause localize flooding. Most of the
convection should be over by Friday afternoon. Also, the dryline
will make progress east into the western half of the area Friday
afternoon. Highs will be mid 80s to lower 90s, possibly a few
degrees warmer across the western 1/3 of the area.

(Friday Night through Wednesday)

An unsettled weather pattern will continue across West Central Texas
due to an upper level west-southwest flow pattern(disturbance moving
through the flow) and a dryline remaining west of our area. Nothing
to unusual for the Memorial Day weekend. Mainly have chance Pops
going through much of this time period. Also, a few storms may be
severe mainly during the afternoon and evening due to strong
instability and some 0-6KM shear. Highs will be in the 80s with lows
in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  91  73  87  66 /  20  20  40  60
San Angelo  92  73  90  67 /  20  30  50  70
Junction  84  73  86  69 /  20  40  60  60

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99


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