Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 300218
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
918 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
To decrease PoPs...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated across West
Central Texas this evening, with the loss of daytime heating.
Rain chances were removed across most of the area, but slight
chance PoPs were retained across the Interstate 10 corridor,
where scattered showers are lingering. Temperatures were also
tweaked to match up with current trends. Otherwise, no other
changes are needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered convection continues around the southern terminals
early this evening with isolated activity farther north near KSJT
and KABI. Included TEMPO groups for TS at all terminals through
mid evening. Brief wind gusts to 45 kt will be possible, along
with some MVFR visibilities due to heavy rain. Convection will
diminish after 03z, with VFR expected into Saturday. Isolated
convection possible Saturday afternoon but will not mention due
to timing and coverage uncertainty.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Rain chances for West Central Texas will continue through tonight,
as an upper trough slides farther east across the Great Plains.
Model forecast soundings from the NAM and GFS indicate precipitable
water will continue around 1.5 inches overnight. Thus, possible
flash flooding remains a threat overnight, as some thunderstorms may
produce locally heavy rain. For tomorrow, models indicate rain
chances end, as the upper trough moves over the Mississippi river
valley.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night into Friday)

The upper ridge gradually strengthens Sunday. While an isolated
shower or thunderstorm is possible in southeast zones Sunday
afternoon...from Junction to San Saba...the potential is too low
to include the forecast. Both the EC and GFS models show the upper
ridge to continue intensify through the middle of next week. West
Central Texas will be on the southern side of the upper ridge,
centered from Northern New Mexico into Oklahoma. Thus, while West
Central Texas will be hot and dry, high temperatures should stay in
the mid 90s.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  95  73  96  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  71  96  73  96  73 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  73  96  73  95  73 /  20  10   5  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





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