Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 011201
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus will affect the southern terminals through mid to late
morning before scattering out to VFR. Expect south winds gusting to
around 20 KT today with winds remaining elevated across the northern
terminals overnight. Convection may develop west of the area late
this afternoon and evening, possibly affecting KABI after 03Z.
Coverage remains too uncertain to include in the TAF at this time.
Stratus will develop across the southern terminals after 09Z
Thursday, with MVFR ceilings likely.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

An upper trough will amplify across the Rockies today and move
across the Plains late tonight and Thursday. A weak surface
trough/dryline will remain just west of the area today and will
be a focus for possible thunderstorm development by late afternoon.
Convergence along this feature will be rather weak but strong
insolation may weaken the CAP sufficiently for a few storms to
develop through early evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms
may develop farther north into the Big Country overnight as support
aloft increases with the approaching upper trough and associated
right entrance region of a 95+ KT upper jet streak. If storms
develop, a few may become strong through the evening hours, with
marginally severe hail possible. Kept POPs at 20 percent for the
overnight hours, with the best chance for rainfall across the
Big Country.

Above normal temperatures will continue today with afternoon highs
90 to 95 degrees. It will also be breezy again today with south
winds 10 to 20 mph, with a few higher gusts. Lows tonight will be
in the lower 70s.

LONG TERM...
/Thursday through Tuesday/

A potent upper level trough will move across the Plains Thursday,
sending a cold front through West Central Texas. The front is
forecast to move through the Big Country during the early afternoon
hours, and approach the Interstate 20 corridor by early evening. A
moderately unstable atmosphere will reside ahead of the front,
especially across the eastern half of the area. Isolated to
scattered showers are forecast to develop along the front, mainly
during the late afternoon/evening hours. The best chance of
convection will be southeast of a Brownwood...to Menard...to
Junction line. A few storms could become strong to severe, although
widespread severe weather is not anticipated. The front will quickly
move south of the area by mid to late evening, with drier air
filtering in behind it.

Cooler temperatures are forecast behind the aforementioned cold
front. Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s,
with overnight lows in the 50s. A steady warm up will ensue from
Sunday through the middle of next week. Highs will generally be in
the mid to upper 80s, with overnight lows in the 60s. Rain chances
look minimal through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  72  89  56  80 /  10  20  20   5   0
San Angelo  94  73  89  55  82 /  10  10  20   5   0
Junction  90  73  91  59  84 /   5   5  20  30   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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