Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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342
FXUS64 KSJT 100512
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1112 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Generally clear skies are anticipated over the next 24 hours.
Light southwest winds overnight will increase to 10-15 kts by
midday Wednesday, with gusts near 20 kts at times. Expect winds to
diminish to 10 kts or less around 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 549 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016 /

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Expect light
and variable winds becoming south-southwest overnight. Wind
speeds will increase to 10-15 kts by midday, with gusts to 25 kts
at times during the afternoon hours. Generally clear skies are
anticipated over the next 24 hours.

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Northwest winds this afternoon will diminish by sunset. Surface
high pressure will shift to our east tonight, but weak surface
pressure gradient combined with clear skies and dry air will
result in another night with strong radiational cooling. Expect
overnight lows to be in the mid to upper 30s across the Big
Country, where south or southwest winds develop late tonight.
Going with lows mostly in the upper 20s to lower 30s farther south
across the rest of West Central Texas, with the colder readings in
low-lying areas and along river valleys.

On Wednesday, southwest winds will develop during the morning, and
will increase and become gusty by afternoon especially across the
Big Country. This will be in response to increased surface
pressure gradient as low pressure develops across the central
Plains. With sunny skies and a dry airmass, temperatures will
rebound into the 70s for highs.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

A dry and quiet weather pattern will persist across the area late
this week into early next week, with above normal temperatures
continuing. The upper level pattern will consist of a large upper
trough over the eastern CONUS, with upper level ridging across
the west. This will keep West Central Texas in persistent
northwest flow aloft for most of the extended period, with only
a couple of week fronts affecting the area. The first front will
move across the area on Thursday, with another weak front expected
Friday night. Daytime highs will be in the upper 60s and 70s
through the extended period, with overnight lows mainly in the
40s. The exception will be Thursday night when overnight lows
will drop into the 30s.

FIRE WEATHER...

With a combination of very dry air and vegetation...elevated fire
weather conditions will continue Wednesday through Thursday. Of
particular concern is Wednesday afternoon, especially across the
Big Country, Concho Valley and northern Heartland areas, where
gusty southwest winds will be combined with well-above normal
temperatures. At this time, however, wind speeds are not expected
to reach critical thresholds.

Southwest winds will shift to north-northeast on Thursday, with
passage of a weak cold front. Winds could be somewhat gusty for a
few hours following the frontal passage.

Low-level moisture is expected to increase during the weekend, and
this will result in higher relative humidity values. This should
help to keep fire weather conditions from becoming critical,
despite increased south winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  38  76  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  31  78  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  27  75  39  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



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