Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 211104
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  59  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  57  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  58  80 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24










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