Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 242045
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
345 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Warm and windy day across West Central Texas this afternoon, with
temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area. Wind gusts
over 40 mph have been common across the Big Country and Concho
Valley this afternoon, and all indications are that these wind
speeds will persist through about sunset. Will leave the wind
advisory in effect for the remainder of the afternoon. Dry air mass
in place tonight behind the weak cold front, and with wind speeds
dropping, temperatures will drop as well. Lows in the mid and upper
40s look on target. Surface high builds into the area on Saturday,
with lighter winds and temperatures a couple degrees cooler.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

The first in a series of upper level troughs/lows will swing across
the Southern Plains late Sunday into Monday morning. Ahead of this
feature, a dryline will move through the area Sunday, resulting in
west winds of 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts. Temperatures will be
well above seasonal normals, in the mid 80s to lower 90s. A cold
front will then move south through West Central Texas Monday
morning, resulting in gusty north winds and slightly cooler
temperatures. A mainly dry frontal passage is expected, although
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our
extreme southeast counties, where better moisture will reside.

The next more potent upper level low will track into the Desert
Southwest Tuesday, then approach the Southern Plains late Tuesday
into Wednesday. Ahead of this feature, a dryline will set up just
west of our area Tuesday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm
development will be possible along the dryline, with a few strong
to severe thunderstorms possible. With the approach of better lift
during the evening hours, an increase in shower and thunderstorm
development is expected, with a continued chance of strong to
severe thunderstorms. The current thinking is that eventually a
line of storm will develop and move east across the forecast area,
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, although exact timing of the
upper level low is hard to pinpoint this far out. As the upper
level low exits the region, a cold front will move through the
area late Wednesday into Thursday morning, resulting in slightly
cooler temperatures.

Models are indicating the next upper level low moving toward the
Southern Plains late Friday into Saturday. Differences continue in
the exact timing and track of this system, but this may result in
the next opportunity for convection, especially across our eastern
counties.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon, with wind
gusts near 40 mph and humidities around 15%. Wind speeds will
decrease by early evening, although humidity will be a little slow
to recover. Red Flag Warning will continue into effect through the
remainder of the afternoon.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely on Saturday
afternoon. Winds at the 20 foot level will be greatly reduced,
mainly in the 5 to 10 mph range. However, humidity values will
remain very low.

Critical fire weather conditions are likely again on Sunday and a
Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning may be needed. Southwest and
west winds at the 20 foot level will increase again to 15 to 18 mph,
with forecasted relative humidities falling to near 10% in some
locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  47  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  81  48  80  56 /   5   0   0   0
Junction  81  47  81  54 /  20   0   0   0
Brownwood  81  47  76  52 /  20   0   0   0
Sweetwater  77  47  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       79  47  79  54 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-
Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Callahan-Fisher-
Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.

&&

$$

07/Daniels/07


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