Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 172020
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
220 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Surface high pressure tonight will extend from the Tennessee Valley
southwest into south-central Texas. An upper shortwave trough will
move southeast into the Big Bend area by late tonight, and into
south-central Texas by Thursday evening. Cloud cover has been
persistent over the area south of a Sterling City-San Angelo-
Junction line so far today. A slow erosion of this cloud field is
expected late this afternoon and early this evening. Some patchy
middle and high cloud cover, associated with the aforementioned
shortwave trough, is expected to move over the southern part of our
area overnight into the day Thursday. Temperatures will be rather
cold again tonight, but not as cold as what occurred last night.
Going with lows mostly in the upper teens to lower 20s.

As the airmass continues to moderate, increasing south-southwest
winds and considerable sunshine will allow temperatures to climb
into the upper 40s to lower 50s for highs on Wednesday across our
central and northern counties. Farther to the south, going with mid
40s for highs along our I-10 counties, where some cloud cover is
expected.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

Fire weather concerns increasing...

(Friday through Saturday)

A rebound in temperatures will begin to occur across the region
leading into the weekend. The region will sit in a southerly flow,
and temperatures will quickly warm above seasonal normals for
Friday and Saturday. With plenty of sunshine, highs on Friday will
be in the low to mid 60s with temperatures jumping into the low
to mid 70s on Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to
low 40s for Friday night. Overnight lows on Saturday night will
be warm with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

(Sunday through Monday)

A developing low pressure system across the Oklahoma panhandle will
begin to move east and drag a dryline across western Texas and bring
the dryline through our area during the late afternoon. Ahead of the
dryline, strong southwesterly winds will develop, bringing some
moisture and instability to our far eastern counties. A few isolated
thunderstorms are possible along the dryline as it moves to the
east. The best chances for thunderstorms will be along and east of a
Coleman to Junction line. These storms look to remain under severe
limits. The main concern will be the possibility for dangerous cloud-
to-ground lightning. These storms will produce very little rainfall
and the concern is for lightning to ignite fires as the vegetation
across the region is very dry. In the wake of the dryline, dewpoint
values will rapidly decrease into the upper teens to low 20s. Strong
westerly, downsloping winds between 20-25 mph with higher gusts will
develop behind the dryline and ahead of a weak Pacific cold front
progged to move through the area late Sunday night. Fire weather
concerns for Sunday are increasing and we will monitor the situation
and issue any additional products if needed. Highs on Sunday will
be in the low to mid 60s. By Monday morning, the cold front will
be moving south across the region and will bring cooler
temperatures to region. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 50s
to low 60s.

(Tuesday through Wednesday)

Expect quiet weather across the region during this time period.
A surface high over the Gulf Coast will keep the region in a
southeasterly flow. Expect near normal temperatures under partly
cloudy skies to dominate the weather. Highs on Tuesday and
Wednesday will be in the low to mid 60s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  21  50  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  20  52  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  19  46  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  17  48  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  24  49  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       20  47  23  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

19/40


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