Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 271805 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1204 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The main aviation concern is the potential for some low
cloudiness early Friday morning. Clear skies and VFR conditions
will occur this afternoon through much of tonight. The models have
been persistent with the boundary layer moisture increase toward
morning across the southern part of our area. Somewhat skeptical
on the extent shown, as the models can be overdone on the first
night of low-level moisture return. With the 12Z GFS and NAM still
indicating this, however, believe that some introduction of low
clouds is needed. With the 18Z TAFs, carrying SCT TEMPO BKN sky
conditions for KSOA and KJCT, with a TEMPO SCT mention farther
north at KSJT and KBBD. overall, expect MVFR ceilings, although
ceilings could drop to IFR at KSOA. Expect a breakup of low clouds
by mid-late morning. East to southeast winds this afternoon will
veer to south-southwest by early Friday morning, with increasing
speeds between 15Z and 18Z.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR through tomorrow morning. Light northeast winds this morning
will become southerly by this evening. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The forecast for Thanksgiving calls for slightly cooler
temperatures as a surface ridge settles in over the southern U. S.
Although we will be on the western fringe of this high, there will
be just enough cold air advection to cool temperatures a few
degrees area wide today. Other than the cooler highs, it should be
a relatively pleasant day with winds generally 10 mph or less, and
sunny skies. Tonight, skies will remain mostly clear, and winds
will veer to the south/southwest and increase. Much of the area
will see warmer overnight lows in the 40s. This will be due to the
increased and gusty winds keeping low levels mixed and warmer. Low
lying areas and river valleys that won`t see the same gusty
conditions will likely be able to fall into the 30s with more
favorable radiational cooling effects.

20

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

Weak ridging aloft over the forecast area Friday into Saturday
will begin to flatten by late Saturday with an 850mb thermal ridge
remaining over the area through the weekend. Afternoon highs will
remain in the 70s through Sunday...around 10 degrees above
seasonal norms. Morning lows will be in the 40s on Saturday and
the 40s and lower 50s on Sunday.

An upper shortwave trough moving east across the northern CONUS
will send a dry cold front south through the forecast area Sunday
night into Monday morning. Should see a dramatic cooling on Monday
with afternoon highs only in the 40s over the Big Country and 50s
over the remaining area. Looking for freezing temperatures over
the Big Country Tuesday morning with lower to upper 30s over the
southern half of the area.

Will see a quick post-frontal warm-up on Tuesday and Wednesday as
highs climb back into the 60s. Morning lows on Wednesday will be
back into the 40s. The latest model runs have been down-playing
the significance of a Pacific upper trough as it relates to our
area with the latest models shearing the system into the flow
aloft mid-week and passing the weaker upper trough well to our
north. Have thus maintained a dry forecast through the extended.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  58  43  69  48  73 /   0   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  63  41  72  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  64  36  69  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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