Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL

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000
FXUS63 KLOT 261420
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
820 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
236 AM CST

THROUGH THURSDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY. SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA BUT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...MOSTLY
MID-HIGH LEVEL...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVER THE MORE SOLID SNOW PACK REGION OVER ABOUT
THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA. RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
FLURRIES TO BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE STRATUS DECK AS THE TEMPS IN THE
CLOUDS COOL...BUT NOT LOOKING ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE TO FALL.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE COLDEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 20S...POSSIBLY NOT FAR INTO THE 20S OVER THE SNOW COVERED
AREAS.

IZZI

&&

.LONG TERM...
236 AM CST

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN THE MODERATING TREND.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS STILL EXPECT ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SNOW PACK AREAS WHERE TEMPS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 10 OR EVEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EVENING IF SKIES AREA
CLEAR. TEMPS WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY RISE A BIT LATE AS
CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN. FOCUS FOR WAA PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
TO OUR NORTH WITH HIGHS FRIDAY MODERATING INTO THE 30S...AND
PROBABLY NEAR 40 IN THE SNOW-LESS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM
FALLING OFF MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE A NICE SPRING BOARD FOR TEMPS TO TAKE OFF ON SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGHS...PROBABLY
TOO MUCH SO...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER. THE
850/925MB CLIMO WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE 50S WHERE THERE IS NO
SNOW COVER AND HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP INTO THIS RANGE. GIVEN THE
MODERATE SOUTH WINDS EVEN SNOW COVERED AREAS COULD BE NEAR 50. WHILE
I`VE BUMPED UP FORECAST TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE AM CONCERNED THESE
HIGHS ARE STILL POTENTIALLY TOO CONSERVATIVE BUT DIDNT WANT TO GET
TOO CARRIED AWAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL HAVE SLOWED THE COLD FRONT DOWN THATS SCHEDULED
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. SLOWER FROPA MEANS WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY
AND IF COLD FRONT SLOWS ANY FURTHER IN LATER RUNS THEN SUNDAY COULD
END UP BEING JUST AS IF NOT A MORE MILD DAY THAN SUNDAY. FROPA LOOKS
TO BE MAINLY DRY AS DOES THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AT
THIS POINT...BUT BEHIND THE FRONT WE SHOULD RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS WE HAVE GROWN ACCUSTOMED
TO.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

* EASTERLY WINDS TODAY...BELOW 10 KT.

* SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH FROPA LATER TONIGHT.

RODRIGUEZ/KB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

MVFR CEILINGS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH ORD IS CURRENTLY NOT REPORTING
THESE CEILINGS...EXPECT THEM TO ARRIVE HERE SHORTLY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOW LOW WITH REGARDS TO HOW LONG THIS STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AS THERE IS NOW A POSSIBILITY FOR THE STRATUS TO LINGERING
AT LEAST THROUGH MID DAY. FLOW WITHIN THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD ACT TO SHIFT THE MORE SOLID CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY TO THE EAST
BACK OVER THE TERMINALS. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THEN THIS STRATUS
COULD POSSIBLY EVEN LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MAYBE EVEN THE
EVENING. DID GO MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HAVE CEILINGS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID DAY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THEM TO BE IN PLACE LONGER. ANY FOG AND REDUCED VIS THIS MORNING
SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CURRENT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN UNDER 10 KT. FROPA LATER TONIGHT SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...IF NOT ALREADY IN PLACE...WITH EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM WITH CIG TRENDS TODAY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

* MEDIUM WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT.

RODRIGUEZ/KB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.MARINE...
312 AM CST

AS HIGH PRESSURE SPANS THE REGION THIS MORNING...LIGHTER WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. THESE LIGHTER SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY WELL WEST OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
LAKE LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN RAMP
UP QUICKLY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE ENTIRE LAKE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND AM EVEN CONCERNED FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO THESE
POSSIBLE GALES ON THURSDAY BUT STILL WANTED TO MAKE MENTION OF AT
LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS...AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE OPEN WATERS FORECAST. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PREVAILING GALES DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...BEFORE A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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