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000
FXUS63 KLOT 181601
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1101 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CDT

PERIOD OF QUIET/DRY WEATHER THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY PUTS FOCUS OF
FORECAST ON TEMP TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WARMING INTO THE 70S
AFTER COOL NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY. PRECIP POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT
WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL WARM-UP MID-LATE IN THE WEEK.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SOUTH OF ABOUT A
PONTIAC-KANKAKEE-VALPO LINE. THESE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN A
REGION OF LOW LEVEL F-GEN AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...
AND JUST AHEAD OF A SHEARED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORTED BY SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES A QUICK
DIMINISHING OF THIS PRECIP AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IT SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR BEYOND SUNRISE IF
EVEN THAT LONG. CLOUDS ALSO QUICKLY DECREASING FROM THE WEST PER GOES
IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...SETTING UP MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN COOLER NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S ARE ANTICIPATED...WHILE AREAS WELL INLAND TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE HEART OF THE METRO AREA SHOULD SEE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
FOR HIGHS. COOL/DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT.

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN SATURDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TRACKS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER...AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IMPEDED BY SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF OUR SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WILL BLOCK FLOW OFF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...KEEPING PRECIP POTENTIAL NORTH/WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG COLD FRONT WHICH TRAILS SOUTHWEST ACROSS WI-MN-IA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY/BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL SUPPORT A NICE WARM-UP
SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MODEL THERMAL PROGS SUPPORTING LOWER 70S
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA...AND MID-60S FARTHER EAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE LAKE FROM THE CITY NORTHWARD HOWEVER...DUE TO A SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT TO THE WIND OFF OF THE LAKE. LAKE-MODIFIED AIR SHOULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S NEAR THE SHORE. MODEST SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S/NEAR 50
ESPECIALLY WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EMERGE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON EASTER SUNDAY...WITH MODELS DEPICTING A SERIES OF MUCH
WEAKER SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES RIPPLING NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST.
GUIDANCE REMAINS LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY HOWEVER...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUED TO BE
FOCUSED ALONG COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME INCREASED MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY NORTH...SOUTH WINDS
AND WARM ADVECTION LOOK TO SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE MID-70S MOST AREAS
AND EVEN ALONG THE LAKE AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES
THEN INCREASE SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASSES ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY.
CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
LAPSE RATES...WITH NO WIDESPREAD THUNDER EXPECTED.

MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DIGGING A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT
PHASING INTO A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BY TUESDAY WITH HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT ATTENDANT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPS. EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE PERSISTENT HIGH
AMPLITUDE BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN...LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPS AGAIN BY THURSDAY...BUT WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WESTERN GULF OPENS UP.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL PERSIST THRU THIS AFTN.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST EVE CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA. SPEEDS AT CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES MAY
APPROACH 10 KT THIS MORNING BEFORE AN INCREASE TO 10-13 KT IS
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE COMPONENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
AND A TIGHT THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
LAKE. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THIS EVE...BUT OTHERWISE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE NIGHT.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY...EAST FLOW.
WEDNESDAY...EAST FLOW. CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF T-STORMS.

MTF

&&

.MARINE...
133 AM CDT

A GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN OVER THE LAKE IN TERMS OF HEADLINES IS
EXPECTED INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAKE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A 10-20 KT PUSH OF ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO
THIS WEEKEND AND STEER A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE ON SUNDAY. WITH THE PARENT LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND
MOVING AWAY...THIS FRONT WILL STALL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY COULD YIELD 20 KT GUSTS
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN NEARSHORE AREAS. EVENTUALLY THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE LAKE AS A LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE BOUNDARY BRINGS IT
ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS FRONT WILL TURN WINDS NORTHERLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME LONG RANGE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL GUSTY SOUTHERLY PERIOD OF WINDS LATE IN THE FORECAST
/THURSDAY/.

MTF

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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