


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
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425 FXUS63 KLOT 122004 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Other than a chance of some isolated-scattered showers this afternoon, and a few possible storms across central IL and IN Sunday afternoon, dry weather is expected through the rest of the weekend. - After a couple day break Sunday and Monday, humidity returns mid-week along with chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Through next Saturday: A couple of weather features we are monitoring may provide parts of the area with a few isolated to widely scattered late day showers. The first is a mid-level impulse currently noted in the water vapor imagery tracking east-northeastward across central parts of IL. This feature will be the driver of some widely scattered showers and possibly a few storms for the next few hours across my far southeastern counties. The second feature is a more robust northern stream impulse currently shifting out of the Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes. Increased forcing for ascent in advance of this wave has been driving scattered showers and storms to our north in WI just in advance of an eastward shifting cold frontal boundary. The primary focus for these showers is expected to largely remain to our north through the late afternoon hours. However, there remains about a 20% chance for a few isolated late day showers across northern IL as this cold front shifts into the area. Otherwise, a majority of the area is expected to remain dry the remainder of the day. A less humid airmass will filter in across northern IL in the wake of this front tonight into Sunday, with dewpoints falling into the 60s. This less humid airmass will remain in place through Monday. Accordingly, primarily dry weather is anticipated for much of the area for Sunday and Monday. However, we are keeping an eye on a small (~20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, particularly across central parts of IL and IN (areas well south of the Kankakee and Illinois River Valley). This is a change in the forecast as this area now looks to remain close enough to the deeper moisture to support another threat for some isolated to widely scattered afternoon convection. Model guidance is also now in better agreement in tracking what appears to be a convectively enhanced impulse east-northeastward out across MO Sunday morning, then into central parts of IL later in the day. Given this trend we have opted to include a 20% mention for afternoon showers and storms across far southern sections of the area. The main threat from any storms in this area would be locally heavy downpours. High pressure will scoot off to our east late Monday, with southerly flow transporting the humid, Gulf air mass back northward into the region Tuesday through Thursday. The main belt of westerlies should remain to our northwest Tuesday and Wednesday, though medium range guidance does hint at perhaps a weak southern stream disturbance meandering northeastward into the region supporting at least chances of primarily afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and especially Wednesday. By Wednesday night into Thursday, it looks like a northern stream trough will push eastward across the Great Lakes dragging a cold front across the area with the threat for more showers and thunderstorms. Another day or two break from rain chances and humidity looks possible Friday and perhaps into Saturday. KJB && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Key messages for the 18Z TAF period include: * Periods of MVFR possible early this afternoon A densely SCT to BKN 2-3 kft deck is moving across the region early this afternoon. Coverage should trend toward more scattered moving through the afternoon, but bouts of MVFR cigs will be possible for the first valid hour or two of the period. Otherwise, VFR is expected throughout. A brief isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon and again overnight, but probs are far too low for a TAF inclusion. Expect westerlies near or just over 10 kt subsiding to closer to 5 kt this evening. Doom && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago