Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 181352
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
852 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
852 AM UPDATE...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK WITH 13" AT HOULTON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE STEADY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TAPER BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
RETURNS ARE NOW JUST EAST OF THE BORDER IN NEW BRUNSWICK.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY WITH AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM HEADLINES THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPIRE/CANCEL MOST OF THEM BY AROUND MIDDAY.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHGS MADE TO SN TOTALS FROM THE LAST
UPDATE ATTM. LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF GOOD LGT
TO MDT SNFL PIVOTING NE TO SW FROM EASTON TO JUST EAST OF PATTEN
ME. MODELS INDICATE THIS BANDING TO CONT TO NEARLY 12Z AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO NB PROV. LGT STEADY SNFL OVR THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL THEN TAPER TO SCT-NUMEROUS SN SHWRS THIS AFT...WITH UP
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNFL AFT 18Z TDY...MAINLY OVR
NRN/NERN PTNS OF THE REGION. SN SHWRS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN THRU TNGT WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION... LINGERING LONGEST OVR THE FAR N. WNTR
WX HDLNS MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED SOONER THAN THE 20Z EXPIRATION
TM LATER TDY OVR THE SW PTNS OF THE HDLN AREA.

OTHERWISE...BRISK NW WINDS WILL CONT TDY INTO THIS EVE AS THE
PRES GRAD ON THE W SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW TIGHTENS.
HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CLOSER TO AVG...BUT LOWS TNGT WILL BE HELD
ABV AVG DUE TO CLD CVR AND A MDT NW BREEZE BRINGING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ADDITIONAL LLVL COLD ADVCN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES WILL SLOWLY BUILD. A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS FIELDS...BUT
SOME CLEARING WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLAGASH LATER IN THE DAY AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL FILL
IN AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS TRICKY CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS EQUATES TO A DIFFICULT LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALL NIGHT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR PROBABLE
THAT THESE CRITERIA WILL BE MET EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH WHERE THE
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. TOWARDS
BANGOR...EXPECT LOW TO MID TEENS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO TRAP A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CREATE A CLOUDY
AND CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND A FEW FLURRIES IN A VERY SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER..
AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST. NWP OFFERS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A
COMPLETE MISS TO MOST OF THE AREA BEING AFFECTED ON TUESDAY. HAVE
GONE WITH STEADILY INCREASING CHANCE POPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SLOWLY DECREASING THEM TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE DOWN EAST...DUE BOTH TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND THE
FACT THAT A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE REGARDLESS OF THE LOW`S TRACK. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES WILL BE RISING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY
P-TYPE BEING RAIN FOR THE DOWN EAST REGION. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...A BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING TO STEADY RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCH OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO LESSEN HYDRO CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND AT THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY
INTO MONDAY. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS FVE AND IN FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL CONT TDY THRU TNGT...SPCLY
OVR OUTER MZS050-051. WE MERGED LATEST BUOY OBS TO WW3 FCST WV HTS
THIS AFTN...THEN STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A GALE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ001>005-010-011-017-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ006-
     032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ015-016-
     029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...CB/VJN/MCW
MARINE...CB/VJN/MCW



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