Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
FXUS61 KCAR 111049
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
549 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016
High pressure will move east of the area today. Low pressure will
approach tonight and track along the coast on Monday. The low will
exit into the Maritimes Monday night into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
530 AM Update: Based on latest Sat imagery, we lowered cld cvr to
mclr across the N thru mid morn...then merged back to ptly cldy
skies by aftn as per the last fcst update thinking that some SC
cld cvr will re-form or move back in from QB prov. Otherwise,
fcst hrly temps thru the erly morn hrs had to be adjusted downward
msly across NW vly lctns due to fairly intense radiational cooling
that has been underway the last few hrs due to clrg. No sig chgs
were made to fcst hi temps attm, so fcst hrly temps will have a
steeper climb later this morn into the midday hrs to reach fcst hi
Orgnl Disc: Skies have at least temporary cleared across the N
very erly this morn...allowing sfc temps to plunge, particularly
ovr protected valleys where sfc winds have become particularly
decoupled from stronger winds alf.
Otherwise, skies will be clr to ptly cldy today, with intervals
of sc still possible across the N hlf of the region. Hi temps
should recover to a little warmer than ystdy`s hi temps by erly
aftn. Hi CI/CS cldnss should then begin spreading WSW to ENE
across the region by mid to late aftn as sfc low pres from the
great lks begins to apch our region.
Cldnss will then slowly thicken from the WSW ovr the region tngt,
with snfl breaking out first ovr SW ptns of the region aftr
mdngt...reaching far NRN ptns of the FA shortly aftr daybreak Mon.
Accumulations could reach as high as 2 to 3 inches ovr the lower
Penobscot vly by 7am Mon with a dusting across the far N by this
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Snow will quickly spread across the area early Monday morning as
fast moving low pressure approaches from the great lakes. Forecast
guidance is in good agreement now on a moderate snow event with most
of the snow falling across the area during the morning into
afternoon on Monday. Amounts will be around 6 to 7 inches across
the area, but with less along the coast where warmer air off the
water will turn the snow into a period of rain. Will be issuing
winter weather advisories across the area for this event. There is
a chance that some heavier banding of snow over interior Downeast
locally pushes amounts closer up to 8 or 9 inches locally, but in
general, we`re expecting around, or just over 6 to 7 inches in 14
hour period of time. Precipitation should end around mid afternoon
Downeast and early evening across the north. This will give way to
partial clearing Downeast Monday night with the north remaining
mostly cloudy. Tuesday should then turn out partly cloudy and
seasonably cold across the area.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak high pressure will build south of the area during the mid week
period as a very cold trough of low pressure begins to approach from
central Canada. Some moisture around the back of the high and ahead
of the cold trough will bring clouds and a chance for some snow
showers late Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure rebuilding to
the west combined with low pressure to our east will then usher in
bitter cold air Thursday into Friday when highs will be near the
single digits north to the teens downeast. A storm system
approaching from the great lakes may then bring snow or snow
changing to ice and rain Saturday into Saturday night.
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR xpctd for all TAF sites tdy thru this eve,
although brief intervals of MVFR cannot be ruled out spcly this
morn across far nrn TAF sites. Conditions will then lower to
IFR/low IFR vsbys in sn from SW to NE late tngt, reaching the far
Nrn sites Mon morn.
SHORT TERM: IFR to LIFR conditions in snow can be expected on
Monday, possibly improving to MVFR Downeast late in the day. IFR
To MVFR conditions north and MVFR to VFR conditions downeast are
expected Monday night followed by mainly VFR conditions across the
area on Tuesday. VFR conditions are likely Wednesday, possibly
lowering to MVFR in lower clouds Wednesday afternoon.
NEAR TERM: 530 AM Update...We did drop the SCA for our outer MZs
in effect til erly this morn, and replaced it with a gale watch
for Mon into Mon eve as per prev near and short term discussions.
Orgnl Disc...We xtnded current the SCA for our outer waters til 6
am due to wind gusts still reaching or just exceeding 25 kt. Once
we end this, we will re-issue another SCA for the next upcoming
low pressure on Mon. Otherwise, initially went a little abv WW3 wv
guidance for fcst wv hts this morn, then merged with guidance for
later this aftn into tngt.
SHORT TERM: A SCA and possibly briefly a gale will be needed on
Monday for onshore winds ahead of approaching low pressure. A SCA
may be needed for gusty northwest winds behind low pressure Monday
night. Winds should then be below SCA Tuesday into Wednesday.
High tide Monday morning is at 8:35 AM in Bar Harbor and 8:44 at
Eastport. Tides will be approaching astronomical high tides with
Monday being the day before the full moon. Onshore flow ahead of
approaching low pressure combined with the perigee tides may result
in high tide levels above normal and possibly some minor splash-over
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EST Monday for
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for