Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 020459
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1259 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY...THEN EXIT
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
A TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WORK WEEK WILL START OFF UNSETTLED AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS TO OUR SOUTH AND A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST ON MONDAY. EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS, AND FROM ONE-THIRD TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL COME MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS COMBINE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
S/WV CURRENTLY MVG THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS WL GET SHEARED OUT TONIGHT,
HEADING TWD NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. THIS WL LKLY RESULT IN DVLPMNT OF
WK LOPRES ACRS THE GULF OF MAINE MON NGT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
RAIN OCCURRING OVR ALL OF CWA MON EVNG. SYSTEM WL BE A QUICK MVR
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS AFT 06Z AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. ENUF COLD AIR MAY FILTER INTO EXTRM NW
ZONES TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACRS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. COLD AIR IS NOT VRY DEEP AND WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SEE MORE
THAN A DUSTING OF ACCUMS ACRS FAR NW AROOSTOOK CNTY. MIN TEMPS WL
RANGE FM JUST ABV FREEZING IN THE NORTH WOODS TO ARND 40F ALONG THE
COAST FOR TUE MRNG LOWS.

SYSTEM ZIPS INTO ERN CANADA TUE MRNG WITH PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER
OR TWO ACRS THE NORTH BUT NOTHING THAT WUD PRODUCE MORE THAN A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPS ON TUE WL CLIMB TO JUST BLO
NORMAL FOR MAXES AS H9 TEMPS RISE AROUND 2-3C FM PREVIOUS DAY.

STRONG S/WV DIGS INTO UPR MIDWEST TWD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND IS
PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF OVR THE OH VLY AT THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT
TERM. THIS WL ALLOW HIGH TO RMN OVR CWA THRU WED THO SKIES WL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING CLDS DRG THE AFTN FM THE WEST. SOME DISCREPANCIES
IN LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE AFT 12Z WED, WITH CMC, EC AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE NAM ALL INDICATE A LOW RIDING UP ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE IN
THE AFTN. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES A VRY WK TROF ALONG THE COAST BUT NO
REAL ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LOW BACK ACRS
NY STATE. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SPLIT BTWN BOTH SOLNS THO OPERATIONAL
MEAN INDICATES LOW ACRS NY STATE AS WELL. FOR NOW HV SIDED WITH
NAM, CMC AND EC WITH CHC POPS MVG IN FM THE SOUTHWEST AFT 21Z.
MAXES ON WED WL CLIMB TO NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE U50S ACRS THE NORTH TO ARND 60F DOWNEAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM REMAINS RATHER MESSY AS A LIKELY CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE ERN US IS LEADING TO SOME VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS DEPENDING
ON WHEN ONE EXPECTS THE LOW TO GET RE-ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN
PATTERN. WED NIGHT INTO THURS WILL SEE THE CUT-OFF DIVE FROM THE
GR LKS INTO THE MID-ATL, WHILE A LOW RIDES UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPR TROF AND BRINGS SOME SHWRS TO MAINE. WEAK RIDGE MAY HELP KEEP
RAIN CHCS LOWER FRI AND SAT, BUT CAN`T RULE THE CUT-OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST DIRECTING SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARD OUR COASTAL AREAS. UPR
TROF CROSSING QUEBEC FRI NIGHT INTO SAT SHOULDN`T DIRECTLY IMPACT
THE CWA, THOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME PSBL LIGHT SHWRS.

THE CMC HAS THE CUT-OFF MOVING NORTH TOWARD THIS TROF ON SAT AND
BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE STATE, BUT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE
THAT THIS FIRST UPR TROF WILL DIG VERY DEEP, THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT
STRONGLY CONSIDERED. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON A SECOND DIGGING
TROF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT BEING MUCH DEEPER, WITH THE BASE AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE GR LKS AND SRN NEW ENG. THIS WUD ALMOST
CERTAINLY DRAW THE CUT-OFF BACK NORTH. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER ON
THE DETAILS, BUT BETWEEN THE CLD FRNT ADVANCING FROM THE WEST AND
THE CUT-OFF MOVING BACK NORTH, WUD EXPECT POPS TO INCR SUN INTO
MON AND THIS IS REFLECTED AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

CURRENTLY HAVE TEMPS IN GOOD COLLAB WITH GYX, SHOWING A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THRU SUN, WITH NEAR NRML TEMPS BCMG A BIT ABOVE NRML
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HWVR, THIS COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE WX PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: MVFR EXPECTED ON MON NGT AS STRATIFORM RAIN
OVERSPREADS ALL TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF -RASN AT FVE
WITH AN IFR RESTRICTION EARLY TUE MRNG BUT NORTHERN TERMINALS WL
RMN MOSTLY MVFR IN RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REDUCED TO IFR IN BR/FG. RESTRICTIONS WL
PERSIST THRU WED MRNG DOWN SOUTH, PARTICULARLY BHB, WITH ALL OTHER
TERMINALS BECOMING VFR BY AFTN. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR LATE
WED NIGHT AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER IN DEVELOPING RAIN AND FOG
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN AND FOG PERSISTING MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT AS WAVES INCREASE IN
SERLY SWELL THRU TUE MRNG. MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WED
NGT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, A WETTING RAINFALL IS
ON THE WAY FOR LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE APRIL 2016 CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WAS
ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. IT CAN BE FOUND ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON
THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CAR OR AT PWMCLMCAR OR
CXUS51 KCAR.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FARRAR
MARINE...NORCROSS/FARRAR
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB


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