Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 232247
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
647 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
647 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE WILL
PULL EAST TONIGHT. A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALSO PULL
EAST TONIGHT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE. MOISTURE WILL STREAM TO THE NORTH ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH AND ACROSS EASTERN MAINE TONIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST THAT THE RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW IN SPOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AROOSTOOK
AND NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. BUMPED
UP THE POPS A BIT FOR THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE WATERS ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTH OF BAR HARBOR. ALTHOUGH ODDS FAVOR ANY LIGHTNING
REMAINING OFFSHORE THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRIKE OR TWO
REACHING THE COAST THROUGH MID-EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT
ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE
TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST
OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER. WHILE
PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER
OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL
BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL
CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR BHB AND BGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A LOW-TOP EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE FOR BHB THIS EVENING. FROM HUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TRANSITION TO MVFR IN THE
MORNING. SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR CAR AND FVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE AT FVE. WINDS WILL BE
A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR BGR AND BHB THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE.  THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CLGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCA IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 35 KTS LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER
HEIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW/CB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MCW/VJN/CB
MARINE...MCW/VJN/CB







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