Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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431
FXUS61 KCAR 260401
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1201 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach from the south overnight and
Wednesday. The low will dissipate while moving away to the east
Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will approach on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Update...
Light rain continues to fall across northern and downeast Maine
as of the midnight hour. Expect rain to continue overnight.
Current forecast is in good shape and no major changes to going
forecast for the overnight hours.

Previous Discussion... Rain will spread from south to north
ahead of a large and moist but weakening storm system
approaching from the Mid-Atlantic coast. Rain will reach
moderate intensity Downeast, but only be mainly light rain
across the north late tonight into Wednesday. Drier air and
upper level ridging across the north will cause the rain to
diminish and taper off over northern areas Wednesday afternoon.
However, rain will continue Downeast, possibly heavy in some
areas over eastern Downeast locations. Northern areas will
remain cloudy with some lingering patchy drizzle possible
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure is expected to weaken off the New England coast
Wednesday night. A cold font will approach from the west during
the day Thursday then move across the region during the day
Friday. Showers are expected through this period as the frontal
system moves through the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the northwest during the day
Saturday and crest over the region Sunday. Low pressure will
move into the Great Lakes Monday then continue to move northward
into Canada. A cold front will approach from the west and move
across the State Tuesday. Showers are expected on Wednesday as
low pressure passes to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels, from south
to north, across the region overnight with similar conditions
persisting Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/VFR conditions are expected Thursday and
Friday. MVFR conditions are expected Saturday. VFR conditions
are expected Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters
overnight through Wednesday. Visibilities will be reduced in
rain and fog overnight through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS for the sustained winds. For
Waves: A long southerly fetch develops for the Gulf of Maine
southward during the day Wednesday. This fetch is expected to
persist through the day Thursday then weaken with diminishing
winds Friday. Expect waves to build to maximum of 10 to 11
feet/10-11 seconds Wednesday Night. Waves are then expected to
subside Thursday and Friday as winds across the fetch area
diminish but expect the long period southeasterly wave system to
persist into the weekend due to the long fetch distance. Will
use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System for wave grids through
Friday then transition to the Wave Watch III.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The highest astronomical tides of the month are expected over
the next several days in conjunction with a new moon Thursday.
Meanwhile near shore wave heights are expected to build to
around 8 feet Wednesday Night. At the current time the
combination of waves and astronomical tide do not appear
sufficient to produce any significant runup and overtopping,
although some minor beach erosion is possible. This is
supported by experimental runup guidance. In addition wind
speeds over the next several days do not appear strong enough to
produce any coastal flooding.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/Duda
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Bloomer/Duda/Mignone
Marine...Bloomer/Duda/Mignone
Tides/Coastal Flooding...



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