Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 141348
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
948 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN QUEBEC TODAY
PULLING DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE: MOST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY HAS MOVED E OF THE FA
ATTM...SO SHWRS MENTIONED FOR THIS MORN WERE REMOVED FROM THE FCST
FOR THE REST OF TDY. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO FCST
CLD CVR BASED ON LATEST OBSVD SAT IMAGERY CLD CVR. LASTLY...
FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO SLIGHTLY MODIFIED AFTN FCST
HI TEMPS FROM OBSVD 7 AND 8 AM OBS...AT WHICH TIME SHOWED A POSITIVE
BIAS FROM OUR PREV FCST OF MORN TEMPS.

PREV DISC: DRIER AIR CIRCULATING IN FROM THE WEST BENEATH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES
TO THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE AREA. A MOIST FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE GULF OF
MAINE. A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL PULL MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AND
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST BY MORNING AS THIS MOISTURE
IS PULLED BACK NORTHWARD. SOME FOG IS LIKELY NEAR THE COAST AS
HUMID AIR MOVES NORTH OVER THE COOLER WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL EXPAND
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
COULD ALSO HAVE THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER TO
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES EAST IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE INITIAL FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER THURSDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH
COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MOSTLY NORTHERN/CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LEVELS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR THEN IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE PROGRESSES BACK NORTH.

SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH GENERALLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH WINDS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE ISSUED TODAY FOR
SEAS ABOVE 5 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS. SOME FOG IS
LIKELY AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OVER THE COOLER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD BE
NEEDED TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
RAIN AND FOG TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS






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