Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 241707

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
107 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Low pressure tracks well south of the state late tonight. High
pressure then builds in Tue night through Wednesday night. The
next cold front crosses the state Thursday evening.


1245 PM update...
Updated temps and dewpoints for current conditions and trends,
but overall did not make major changes to highs/lows in the near
term, except to bump up highs for a few locations by a couple
degrees today. POPs were scaled back a bit through 21z,
reflecting slow progression of front edge of incoming precip
shield. Otherwise, POPs and QPF weren`t changed much from
previous update.

Prev discussion below...
Current surface analysis shows main low pressure over Lake
Ontario with subsequent low near the Delmarva. Strongest
pressure falls occurring with southern low pressure and frontal
boundary extending northeastward south of Long Island.
Widespread area of heavy rain occurring with both systems with
widespread thunder associated with mid-Atlantic low. Heavy rain
and thunder associated with northern system as well but this is
likely due in part to RRQ of jet streak along with upper low
digging into the Great Lakes.

So what impact wl these systems hv on our area. First off, our
wx conts to be controlled by sfc high with quite a bit of dry
air noted on 00z CAR raob. All hires models are indicating far
nrn zones (ie St. John Vly) rmn dry as system brings rain to the
region late this aftn and tonight.

Surface low tracks off the mid-Atlantic coast this PM. NAM is
the outlier and brings surface low into Gulf of Maine tonight.
RAP, EC, GFS, GEM and Hires ARW, including all GFS ensemble
members, keep it further to the south. Thus have gone gone with
high chance pops rather than likely due to significant
discrepancies between models with QPF. GFS and EC keep system
far enough south of the region to warrant just scattered POPs
while NAM warrants bringing higher pops in. The problem with the
NAM solution is that it is deeper with upper trough as it
ejects into New England tonight vs all medium range guidance
and also deeper with surface low, in addition to being further

Have worded precip today as stratiform rain and showers tonight
as upper level trough approaches. Very little indication that
rain will be heavy today or tonight with most of the precip
likely falling across southwestern Maine. As for temps, expect
maxes to be below normal today with cloudy conditions.


Models continue their drying trend for Tuesday. Low pressure
will move by to the south of the Gulf of Maine, allowing high
pressure to remain nosed into northern Maine. Kept slight
chance/low chance PoPs for Tuesday morning as guidance does show
at least a few showers around, though there`s disagreement on
exactly where. However, QPF has been lowered to just a hundredth
or two for the morning hours. Once any showers move out, skies
will clear from north to south. As such, expect northern Maine
will see the warmest temps, with highs in the lower to perhaps
mid 70s. Central and Downeast will top out in the upper 60s to
around 70.

High pressure will reestablish its hold Tuesday night and Wednesday,
leading to mostly clear skies and fair weather. Lows will be in the
upper 40s to lower 50s Tuesday night, and wouldn`t be surprised to
see a bit of river valley fog, especially in the North Woods.
Temperatures will rebound nicely on Wednesday with plenty of
sunshine; highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with coastal
areas a little cooler.


A frontal boundary will cross the state Thursday and Thursday
night, bringing the chance for showers along with a few
thunderstorms. Some of the guidance shows the front will hang up
along the coast Friday and may spark a few more showers
Downeast that day. As is usually the case, the GFS and ECMWF
show fairly significant differences for the weekend; the GFS
builds high pressure and dry weather behind the front, while the
ECMWF develops a low off of Cape Cod and then moves it just to
our south, keeping the threat of rain for southern areas. Have
gone with slight chance PoPs for Downeast areas accordingly.
Temperatures will be seasonable through the week, with highs in
the 70s to around 80 and lows in the 50s.


NEAR TERM: VFR for all terminals Monday. Expect sct-bkn cirrus
north of HUl. BGR and BHB little more uncertain regarding
northern extent of rain next 24 hours. Have brought in vcsh to
BGR and BHB this afternoon with -shra between 22z and 05z,
before diminishing. BHB looks to be impacted by MVFR twd end of
taf valid time but uncertain on how far north cigs make it so hv
not brought MVFR into BGR.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected to prevail 12z Tuesday
to 12z Thursday. A few showers will be around early Tuesday,
with MVFR conditions possible in any rain. Local IFR will be
possible 06z-12z Wednesday in patchy fog. A cold front will
cross the state from north to south Thursday into Thursday
night, producing showers and thunderstorms. These will move out
of the area by 12z Friday or shortly thereafter. VFR conditions
should prevail Thursday and Friday, but MVFR or even IFR will be
possible in any precipitation.


NEAR TERM: Surface low pressure will cross well south of the
waters late tonight. Wind gusts may approach 20kts on the outer
waters this evening until daybreak but confidence is too low to
hoist an SCA. Seas will range from 2-4 feet into Tue morning.

SHORT TERM: No headlines are anticipated through mid week as
both winds and waves will remain below Small Craft conditions.
Low pressure will cross south of the waters Tuesday morning,
which will allow winds to approach 20 kt with 2-4 ft seas. High
pressure will build across the region thereafter, so expect both
winds and seas to subside.





Near Term...Farrar/Kredensor
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Marine...Farrar/Kredensor/Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.