Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 231313
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
913 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TODAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM TO MATCH UP
BETTER WITH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NEW ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FURTHER NORTH AND SHOULD START AFFECTING OUT WRN ZONES
AROUND MIDDAY. A FEW STORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF OUR CWA COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2500J/KG ARE
FORECAST TODAY ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT. THE INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE ESPECIALLY THE
COAST AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOW TO
MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  THESE
SPOKES WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MAINE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER NEAR CLIMO FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO MAINE IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR AND LCL IFR IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES TO 1 NM OR LESS IN PATCHY FOG/SHOWERS/TSTMS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...DUDA/OKULSKI
MARINE...DUDA/OKULSKI





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