Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 030454
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1254 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230AM UPDATE...THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST
OF THE AREA...LEAVING AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE HIGH THIS EVENING RESULTING IN SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN CLEARING WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS
LOOK GOOD SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY WILL BE A FANTASTIC DAY WITH A 1024MB SURFACE HIGH
DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE. IT WILL BE A COOL MORNING TO START THE
DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO RAPID WARMING WITH HIGHS REACHING
BACK TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MAINE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AHEAD A RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE REACHES MAINE BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT OVERALL WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...LESS THAN .25". TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY`S HIGHS WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 500MB PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL
BE PROGRESSIVE WITH MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH GOOD AGREEMENT OF ENSEMBLE MEANS.

FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING. CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING A
CRISP BUT PLEASANT WEEKEND TO MAINE. TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW
AVERAGE...BUT UNDER FULL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS AND HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE BY SUNDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THEN VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF TERMINALS ON
THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT ALL TAF TERMINALS
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...BEFORE PUSHING INTO DOWNEAST MAINE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE TRANSITIONED THE SCA TO ONE FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR
THE OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 6 TO 7 FT. THE WAVES
ORIGINATING IN FETCH SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
EXPECT THAT THE SCA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4 AM.

SHORT TERM: SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.CLIMATE...
SO FAR TODAY THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT BANGOR HAS BEEN 47 DEGREES.
THE RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY, 6/2 IS 50 DEGREES...WHICH
WAS SET IN 2004. THIS IS ALSO ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY OF THE ALL-TIME
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE OF 46F, SET ON JUNE 9, 1956.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MIGNONE/MCW
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE/MCW/DUMONT
MARINE...CB/MIGNONE/MCW/DUMONT
CLIMATE...CB


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