Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 250029
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WILL UPDATE THE MWW AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST SHORTLY TO
CONNECT THE EVENING SCA WITH THE ONE THAT GOES INTO EFFECT TUESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PERIOD BELOW SCA CRITERIA WILL BE VERY
BRIEF SO CONNECTING THE TWO IS THE WAY TO GO.

WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST AND HV MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY MAINTAIN MID DECK
CIGS OVERNIGHT WELL ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS. NLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING JUST AS SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC THAT A STG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
REGION TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE. YET OWING TO LIMITED MSTR (RECENT
GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES/NAM DETERMINISTIC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS)...
EXPECT ONLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND NO PCPN OVER THE CWA/MSA
TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY DRG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. (SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MAINLY OVER THE MSA TUESDAY YET NOT
CONFIDENT IN THAT OUTPUT GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED MSTR.) COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT/TUESDAY NIGHT YET WITH
READINGS ABOVE FREEZING.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SCA CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FOLLOWED
BY A DECREASE IN WIND/SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. YET...EXPECT SCA TO
OCCUR AGAIN DRG THE 09-20Z TUESDAY PERIOD OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF A WEAK SURGE OF MSLP FROM THE WEST IN RESONSE TO THE FOREGOING
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND TO A SFC LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT WIND/SEAS TO FALL BELOW SCA BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ACT MORE AS A REINFORCING HIGH WEDNESDAY AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. CHILLY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD THEN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST EASTERN LOCATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
OUT WEST. WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE HEADING INTO
LATE WEEKEND WITH PWATS REACHING OVER 1 INCH...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MAINLY THE
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    65  44  68  42  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          65  41  64  39  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            66  47  69  45  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             66  42  67  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          64  47  66  46  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           67  41  67  38  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        66  42  68  40  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       65  50  66  49  70  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TJ/70...SHORT TERM




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