Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 091137
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
537 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation below for 12Z TAF update.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail through the period with mid level stratus across
the region. Moderate northerly winds will relax more this
afternoon and transition more to the northeast as surface high
pressure moves a little further east of the region.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Looks like clouds will hang around most of the day today and under
continuing weak CAA not much of a warmup is expected. Highs will
struggle into the mid 40s with winds making it feel even chillier.
Clouds will hang in tonight keeping temps from dropping more than
four or five degrees. On Saturday onshore flow and thus a warmer
and more moist airmass will try to spread back in. A coastal
trough looks to form which along with the increasing mstr should
lead to isolated showers/areas of drizzle over and near the coast
through the day.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

Zonal flow dominates the extended with a few cold fronts pushing
south through Texas during the period.  Sunday looks to be quite
warm as low level flow takes on more of a southwesterly direction
and a fair amount of sun is expected. We then look to have a
couple weak Pacific fronts slide through - one on Monday and
another on Tuesday. The Monday system has a little better mstr to
work with and will maintain low PoPs over the northeast. Both
fronts look to have little influence on temps but may bring some
fluctuations in cloudiness. Stayed close to the HPC temps
throughout.

A more significant front is advertised for the middle of the week
but significant timing differences between models and withing the
ensembles means confidence is very low. After collaboration with
neighboring offices used a blended approach which brings a weaker
(than the operational GFS) front through late Wed. Will carry low
pops mainly behind the front as light precip should dvlp in the
overrunning pattern that will set up. Leaned close to the HPC
numbers for temps although esply on Thursday actual highs could
be 15 degrees either side.

MARINE...

No longer seeing frequent gusts to 34 knots in our offshore waters
so will likely be canceling the Gale Warning at issuance. The SCA
will continue through 18Z and may need to be extended by the Day
Shift depending on how quickly winds and seas subside. SCEC
conditions will then persist into the evening before flow weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    47  43  62  58  75  /  10  10  20  20  10
Victoria          47  39  59  56  73  /  10  10  10  20  20
Laredo            46  40  54  51  76  /  10  10  10  10   0
Alice             46  40  58  54  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
Rockport          48  45  64  60  72  /  10  10  20  20  20
Cotulla           47  39  52  48  72  /  10  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        46  40  60  55  77  /  10  10  20  20  10
Navy Corpus       49  48  64  62  72  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION



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