Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 260517 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1217 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms
continue to move slowly northward across the Brush Country.
Region is in an area of strong low level convergence beneath
modestly difluent flow aloft. Activity over the Brush Country
appears to be weakening some but more storms are forming to
the southwest of Laredo. Will keep in threat for IFR vsbys
with TSRA for LRD through 10Z along with MVFR ceilings. Could see
a lull in precipitation from late morning until early afternoon.
But convection will redevelop by mid afternoon. The low level
convergence will increase over the area with approach of the sea
breeze boundary and expect increase in coverage of convection
again into the evening hours. Storms will be capable of producing
heavy rain with IFR/LIFR vsby in the strong downpours.

Low level convergence continues to increase along the coastal
areas. Expect streamer type convection to form 08Z and affect the
Coastal Bend. This activity will remain over the coastal plains
through the rest of the morning hours. Expect MVFR ceilings will
become prevailing while scattered convection could bring IFR
vsbys. Thunderstorms should move inland by late afternoon with
VFR conditions expected from late afternoon through the evening
for the coastal sites.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 848 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A deep tap of Pacific moisture, enhanced by the remnants of Pilar
currently moving through central Mexico, is expected to affect the
western portions of the Brush Country through at least Tuesday.
PWATs per the CIRA TPW has averaged around 2.5 inches across this
same area. A seabreeze boundary along with a surface trough axis
were enhancing low level convergence and thus helping to aid the
convection in northwest Webb and western La Salle counties over
the past few hours. Continuous synoptic ascent is expected through
Tuesday morning across this area aided by a longwave trough axis
anchored across the intermountain west and northwest Mexico.
Subtle s/wvs will also be moving through the broad southwesterly
flow aloft.

Normally this would lead to the issuance of a flash flood watch
for Webb and La Salle counties. However, FFG values in this area
are quite high given the dry antecedent conditions. Also, the
current kinematic forcing from these two low level boundaries is
expected to weaken overnight. So while isolated flash flooding
will still be possible overnight, believe these other negative
factors will preclude the issuance of a watch right now.

Did bump up pops and adjust temps downward given the latest
observational trends across the western Brush Country. No other
significant changes are expected elsewhere.

MARINE...
No significant changes are expected for the coastal waters. SCEC
conditions are expected this evening as the LLJ increases in
response falling pressure across Mexico. Seas will average around
3 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  89  75  90  74  /  40  30  10  30  10
Victoria          74  90  72  91  72  /  20  20  10  20  20
Laredo            77  91  75  91  73  /  70  50  50  40  40
Alice             75  91  73  92  72  /  40  40  30  40  20
Rockport          79  88  78  87  76  /  30  30  10  20  10
Cotulla           75  91  73  91  72  /  80  70  50  40  40
Kingsville        76  91  75  92  73  /  40  30  20  40  20
Navy Corpus       80  88  79  88  77  /  30  30  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



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