Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 020946
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
446 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...LAPS ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TOWARD
COTULLA SOUTH TO LAREDO. A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST REMAINS...CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THUNDER ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO H85-H7 TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE WARM
SIDE. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF
MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AS INSTABILITY IS ABUNDANT ABOVE THE CAP.
THAT SAID...SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP...THERE REMAINS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT FROM STEEP LAPSE RATE
ALOFT...WITH HAIL AS A THREAT. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP
SHOULD HINDER MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY. THE
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING WITH PWATS SHOWING A DECREASING TREND AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK POPS HEADING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER SHALLOW LAYER
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND WITH THIS COMBINED WITH THICK CLOUD
COVERAGE...HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FROM COTULLA TO VICTORIA...AND INTO THE MID 70S
FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
60S...WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MARINE
AREAS AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DRIER AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS STAYS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U. S. WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BY
THE WEEKEND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW WITH ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SHORT WAVE
TROUGH COULD MOVE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND INTERACT
WITH HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE. WILL SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  64  79  61  84  /  40  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          73  59  78  56  83  /  40  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            75  61  83  62  89  /  40  10  10  10   0
ALICE             74  62  81  59  86  /  40  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          75  65  79  63  81  /  40  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           73  59  81  56  87  /  40  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  63  81  60  85  /  40  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  79  66  82  /  40  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM



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