Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 210506 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1106 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

WRKAVI

06Z aviation cycle.

Tonight...VFR/MVFR. Have backed off on the MVFR cigs a bit but keep
them around KALI, for a shorter time period. Some drier air looks
to push in from the west early Tuesday morning and allow the cigs to
scatter out. With light winds in place and some residual low-level
moisture patchy fog may develop under the clearing skies. Medium
confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. Mostly sunny skies with a light southerly flow
expected. Winds begin to shift more easterly across the eastern
terminals and southwesterly across the west ahead of the next cold
front. Front sweeps through later Tuesday evening bringing
northerly winds behind it. High confidence

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 617 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Update for 00Z aviation cycle.

AVIATION...

Tonight...VFR/MVFR. Later this evening expecting the current cigs
to lower to an MVFR deck. Some drier air looks to push in from the
west early Tuesday morning and allow the cigs to scatter out. With
light winds in place and some residual low-level moisture patchy
fog may develop under the clearing skies. Medium confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. Mostly sunny skies with a light southerly flow
expected. Any rain, with the next cold front, looks to hold off
until later Tuesday night. High confidence.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...

Isentropic upglide around 295K level will maintain stratus layer
over the coastal plains this evening. Flow at this level will veer
to southwesterly later tonight bringing in drier air from the west
and push stratus layer east of the area overnight. May see brief
period of patchy fog over the inland coastal plains toward
daybreak. Models show low level lapse rates will remain steep over
the coastal waters tonight. There will be a weak low level
convergence axis over the Gulf waters to provide lift to generate
isolated to possible scattered showers that will continue into
Tuesday. Models also depicted enough moisture and instability
will be available for isolated thunderstorms to develop over
mainly the offshore waters Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will
warm to above normal levels over South Texas Tuesday.

A strong short wave trough will dive south-southeast through
North Texas Tuesday afternoon and then to the Texas coast late
Tuesday night. Region will be in favorable left exit region of a
strong upper level jet max diving south through Texas. There will
also be increasing low level convergence along the coast in
advance of the next cold front that will move through the area
during the overnight hours Tuesday night. The short wave trough
will interact with available moisture to produce scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from the coastal plains into the
coastal waters. Offshore flow will increase to near SCA levels
toward daybreak Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Much quieter conditions for the rest of the week as high pressure
builds in Wednesday following the Tuesday night front. Moderate to
strong northerly flow will continue through Wednesday across the
gulf waters and slowly diminish through Wednesday night into
Thursday. Much drier and cooler air will also filter in behind the
front, with temperatures for Wednesday only expected to reach into
the upper 60s, with lower 70s possible across the southern Coastal
Bend. Overnight lows Wednesday and Thursday nights are expected to
dip into the mid-40s. High pressure over the region slides farther
east into the northern Gulf with onshore returning Friday night into
Saturday. For the weekend, models develop another mid level trough
that will push into the Great Lakes region and at the surface push a
cold front through the Ohio Valley. But this system looks to lose a
lot of its frontal characteristics by the time the tail end moves
toward Texas. Its more that the high pressure building in behind the
frontal boundary will lead to further drying across South Texas.
Temperatures will warm through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    57  82  59  71  47  /  10  10  40  20   0
Victoria          54  79  55  68  43  /  10  10  30  10   0
Laredo            54  81  54  68  47  /   0   0  10  10   0
Alice             54  83  56  72  45  /  10  10  30  10   0
Rockport          59  78  60  70  49  /  10  10  40  20   0
Cotulla           50  80  52  70  43  /   0   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        54  83  58  74  46  /  10  10  40  20   0
Navy Corpus       62  77  63  71  52  /  10  10  40  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION


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