Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 252118
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
318 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night)...

An upper disturbance moving across the SRN Plains/TX may combine
with the surface front to generate shower/thunderstorm activity
over the ERN CWA during the next several hours, before the front
moves offshore (concur with NAM/GFS deterministic output) and
increasing subsidence/drying aloft suppress the convective threat.
An increasing chance for light rain/isolated showers Monday over
the MSA owing to isentropic lift (300K level.) The GFS
deterministic predicts increasing insentropic lift/decreasing
condensation pressure deficits over the CWA Monday night,
suggestive of patchy/areas of light rain or isolated showers over
the CWA. In addition, increasing near surface moisture/drier aloft
may contribute to patchy/areas of fog over the CWA Monday night,
with increased confidence provided by SREF visibility probability
output.

&&

.MARINE (Tonight through Monday night)...

Patchy/areas of sea fog may develop this evening before the front
moves offshore. The front is expected to stall just south of the
MSA Monday. The combination of increasing surface high pressure
over the NW Gulf and lower surface pressure over the SWRN Gulf may
result in SCEC/possibly SCA conditions Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday Night)...

Low level isentropic pattern looks mod/strong, thus will maintain
light rain/fog chances to start the period Tuesday. A surface warm
front will move north through the area Tuesday afternoon with
warmer/drier air moving in and rain ending. Expect sea fog to
redevelop near the coast Tue Night where sfc dwpts are progged to
exceed water temps by 6-8 deg. Next upper trough moves across late
Wednesday, with rain chances staying north of the area. Although a
few streamer showers are possible near VCT. Included a chance for
shower/storms Wed Night as cold front moves through the area. Rain
should end before daybreak Thu as cooler/drier air surges in from
the north. Onshore flow returns Friday as high pressure moves east.
Clouds/moisture return Saturday as isentropic pattern redevelops.
But lower confidence warrants only slight chances for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    58  70  63  78  66  /  10  20  30  30  10
Victoria          54  71  60  77  66  /  20  10  20  40  20
Laredo            56  73  61  80  66  /  10  10  40  30  10
Alice             56  71  62  81  66  /  10  10  30  30  10
Rockport          58  68  64  75  67  /  20  20  20  30  10
Cotulla           52  72  59  77  64  /  10  10  40  40  30
Kingsville        58  71  64  81  67  /  10  10  30  30  10
Navy Corpus       60  68  65  76  67  /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM



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