Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 181616 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1116 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK AND HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM




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