Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 010000 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY SEE
SOMETHING LIGHT TOWARD VCT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A MIXTURE OF
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBYS FROM ALI-BEA-
VCT...ALTHOUGH DID HIT HARDER TOWARD ALI WITH IFR VSBY DUE TO
EARLIER HEAVIER RAINS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK
BRIEFLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS...INCLUDING LRD...THROUGH MID
MORNING. A RETURN OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH HEATING
WEDNESDAY...TRANSITIONING FROM VCSH TO VCTS BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED N AND W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE FAR W CWA. A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDVLP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD WED
MORNING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO S TX. THE GFS PUSHES THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD VERY RAPIDLY WITH PWATS DROPPING TO 1.5 INCHES WED
AFTERNOON. THINK THE GFS IS DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE A TAD TOO MUCH
BUT THAT SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR. THUS...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY`S EVENT. KEPT 20-40 POPS FOR WED.
MODELS SHOW DRYING TO CONTINUE WED NIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP...HOWEVER...KEPT THE 20 POP FOR THE COAST AND REMOVED
MENTION OF TSRA. AM EXPECTING THAT A FEW STREAMER SHRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

MARINE...BUMPED UP WINDS FOR THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ISOL/SCT
SHRA/TSRA`S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CONTINUING
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...STILL LOOKS DRIER ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE
MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH DAYS.  FOR THE WEEKEND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND A BIT OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW PCPN CVRG TO INCRS
AGAIN...ESPLY ON SUNDAY WHERE WE`LL CONTINUE 30-40 POPS.  LESS MSTR
THEN LOOKS TO BE AROUND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SO POPS WILL BE
TAPERED BACK.  THE TREND WILL BE FOR SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS THRU THE
PD BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  92  77  90  77  /  20  30  20  20  10
VICTORIA          76  92  75  90  75  /  10  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  97  75  96  75  /  30  20  10  20  10
ALICE             75  95  75  92  76  /  10  40  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  88  80  /  30  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  95  75  94  74  /  20  20  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  77  92  77  /  10  30  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  87  79  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION


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