Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 222336
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
536 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIIONS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY FROM VFR TO IFR DUE
TO ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM W TO E AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS S TX AND SHIFTS THE CONVECTION GENERALLY E.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA UNTIL 10 PM. ONCE THE CONVECTION EXITS S TX...A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT PATCHY FOG PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT W WINDS AND DRYING ALOFT. NEAR SFC MOISTURE
IS FCST TO DECREASE TOWARD SUNRISE...ENDING THE FOG POTENTIAL. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
STREAMLINE DATA REVEAL AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE GFS PROG STG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
(700-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
COMBINATION OF STG FORCING AND ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES OVER
CWA/MSA (CIRA LAYERED PWAT TOTAL) WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION TNGT. A SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACRS SOUTH TX TNGT (CONSISTENT WITH LOCAL
WRF-ARW.) IN THE INTERIM...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO PSBL
GIVEN ANTICIPATED STG VERTICAL SHEAR/HIGH CAPE/BRN VALUES IN THE
SUPERCELLUAR RANGE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
UNTIL 04Z SUNDAY FOR LASALLE...MCMULLEN...WEBB...DUVAL...AND JIM
WELLS COUNTIES. CONCUR WITH THE NAM DETERMINISTC THAT MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FOREGOING UPPER
SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. BRIEF PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN CWA OWING TO NEAR SFC MSTR/DRY
ALOFT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS
THE PLAINS AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
CWA/MSA SUNDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT OWING TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

MARINE...RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS THIS EVENING BASED ON ONSHORE
WIND/WAVE PERIODS/SWELL HEIGHTS. SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR THE SRN
NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIND MIGHT FALL
BELOW 20KT OVER THE NEARSHORE BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY...7FT SEAS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER PORITONS OF THE SRN NEARSHORE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DESPITE A COLD FRONT AND
REINFORCING RIDGE IN THE LONGTERM FORECAST...WILL SEE MAINLY BENIGN
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIAL COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOST OF THE
WAY THROUGH THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF LONGTERM PERIOD. WILL SEE
COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK CAA AT THE SURFACE...HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AS A REINFORCING RIDGE SETTLES IN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WARM INTO THE 50S FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS ALL WEEK IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. WE/LL VERY
SLOWLY BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  80  52  69  48  /  70   0   0  10   0
VICTORIA          61  78  48  66  41  /  80   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  84  51  71  47  /  50   0   0   0   0
ALICE             58  82  51  70  45  /  70   0   0  10   0
ROCKPORT          65  77  54  67  47  /  80   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           53  82  46  68  43  /  50   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        60  81  52  70  46  /  70   0   0  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       64  77  57  69  53  /  80   0   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION




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