Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 261203 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
703 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

LIFR CIGS have developed at KVCT and KLRD, and should continue
until about 15Z or 16Z then could become MVFR or even VFR
(potential for MVFR most likely at KLRD where rainfall will
likely keep the lower clouds). Main issue for the forecasts is to
handle the potential convection later this afternoon without
making the terminal forecast too complicated. Except at KLRD,
should have VFR at KCRP and KALI with MVFR at KVCT later this
afternoon as the boundary approaches. Will go with VCTS and TEMPO
TSRA at KALI AND KCRP later this afternoon as best chance for
thunder with best instability and convergence. Farther west, will
go with VCSH and TEMPO/PROB30 for showers as it looks like most of
the lift will be in the middle levels and not so surface based.
KVCT is the toughest, and for consistency sake did keep thunder
but would not be surprised if it were showers. Expecting better
chances for rain to end by 03Z...so for brevity did not mention
anything convective or stratiform rain after 27/03Z. MVFR
conditions likely to develop before 06Z at KLRD...around 06Z at
KALI and KCRP, and after 06Z at KVCT (based on time-height plots).
Winds become more to the north and increase in the evening.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Main issue is the convection today and whether a FFA is warranted.
After talking with surrounding offices and based on rainfall
received in the evening and overnight, will remove the FFA. Was
only going to remove it for the western four counties but looking
at radar trends and LAPS data for the other three counties, it
appears that things have become more stable and thus FFA is not
really warranted. There could be some isolated flooding concerns
especailly in Corpus for the next two hours but otherwise think
flooding concerning are waning. The western four counties will
take some time to recover for the afternoon, and think any
rainfall there will not be as intense, although isolated locally
heavy rainfall is possible near the Rio Grande (still have some
diffluence) but . Farther east, rainfall has been more scattered
and with discussing with other offices and WPC, think the heavy
rain concerns at least this morning will begin to shift more east
and into the gulfmex. Thus for now no FFA but will monitor. Am
going from 50 to 70 POPs today, with the better chances in the
afternoon once the atmosphere recovers (and likely this morning
over the southeastern areas). Rainfall should diminish by
midnight, and think POPs overnight may be a bit on the high side.
Less rain on Tuesday but still chance POPs extreme south and
coast/offshore but lower chances elsewhere. Main thing is that it
will be cooler over the next two days, especially high
temperatures. Will see some 60s to the north tonight. Fall is
starting to come to pass.

MARINE (Today through Tuesday)...

Offshore flow will develop and increase to moderate levels tonight
and Tuesday. Scattered to numerous convection today, lesser coverage
tonight and Tuesday.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

Rain chances continue to taper off Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, with quiet weather into next weekend as the main frontal
boundary continues to push farther south and surface high pressure
builds in from the north. Models continue a second push of high
pressure reinforcing the drier airmass late in the week. Winds will
generally be out of the east to northeast through much of the
period, with winds gradually veering back out of the southeast late
in the weekend. Overall, temperatures will be cooler through the
period, with daytime highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s.
Overnight lows will generally range from the low 70s to mid 60s,
especially in the mid 60s toward late in the week after that second
push of high pressure.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  71  85  73  89  /  70  50  30  20  10
Victoria          84  67  84  67  88  /  50  20  20  10  10
Laredo            82  65  81  68  88  /  70  50  20  10  10
Alice             86  69  86  70  90  /  70  40  20  10  10
Rockport          85  71  84  74  87  /  60  40  30  20  10
Cotulla           80  65  82  67  89  /  60  40  20  10  10
Kingsville        89  70  86  71  90  /  70  50  30  10  10
Navy Corpus       86  72  84  75  87  /  70  50  30  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION


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