Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 062329
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015
Issued at 345 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
The main takeaway for the next week is a prolonged period of above
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions. Just an honorable
mention by the NAM and GFS for some light rain Sunday evening.
Main challenge will be just how warm can it get. Today, is a prime
example as gusty southwesterly winds tapped into the much drier and
warmer air above the 925mb level.
Northwest flow aloft from the Rockies through the Great Lakes will
continue for most of the forecast period. A fast moving clipper type
system will zip through the Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes
later tonight and Saturday morning. An attendant cold front will
swing into northern MO Saturday morning but the cold air will lag
the frontal passage. Pronounced westerly downslope flow will
dominate the CWA except over the far northeastern CWA. Inspection of
the this mornings 12z soundings indicated we mixed air from above
the 925mb level, resulting in upward adjustments being made to the
high temperatures. In addition, upstream temperatures from central
NE through central KS reached the lower/middle 60s. Don`t think we
will see as much mixing on Saturday but that westerly downslope flow
favors raising max temperatures for Saturday.
While there are some model differences in the evolution of the above
noted cold front the general idea is the boundary will stall close
to the southern border of the CWA Saturday evening then drift
northward before shifting southward again Sunday afternoon/evening.
So, high temperatures may be a bit tricky on Sunday, especially over
northern MO. In addition, the NAM/GFS drag some light precipitation
across IA and northern MO Sunday evening although the ECWMF keeps it
further north. Will leave forecast dry for now and wait for
additional model continuity with later runs.
After a minor cool down on Monday envision warm air advection
sending temperatures back into the 60s for the rest of the forecast.
Could even see a few 70 degree readings on Wednesday. However, it
appears the main h8 thermal ridge will be forced further north
through NE and IA in response to a storm system over the Gulf of
Mexico lifting northward. This system could eventually lift the
precipitation shield into the CWA but have low confidence currently
but worth monitoring.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015
Expecting VFR conditions through the next 24 hours forecast period.
There are some minor wind shear concerns for tonight as surface winds
will be SW around 5 to 10 kts with winds around 1000 feet out of the
west around 40 kts. Have left the wind shear out of the forecast for
now, but will take another look at it for the 06z forecast.