Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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822
FXUS63 KEAX 162136
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
336 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 336 PM CST MON JAN 16 2017

A well-earned and prolonged January thaw is expected through most of
the forecast period with temperatures expected to be Spring-like.
This afternoon, both Winter and Spring conditions are evident across
the CWA as a warm front bisects the CWA. Temperatures south of the
warm front have risen into the mid 50s to lower 60s with
temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s north. The system that
brought the weekend rain and freezing rain is still to west of us in
the formed of the stacked low across east central Kansas. This low
will move into northwestern Missouri this evening and through
northern Missouri tonight bringing the likely chance for rain across
northern Missouri. There will also be the potential for areas of fog
formation with the recent wet condition as well as drizzle. Rain
will have exited the area by tomorrow morning as the system finally
moves of to the east leaving the area in northwest flow aloft. This
will lead to near normal temperatures tomorrow will highs in the mid
30s to lower 40s. By Wednesday, split let flow across the CONUS will
keep the northern jet well north of the area with the southern jet
remaining along the southern tier states. This will leave the
central CONUS under upper level ridging. This ridging and the onset
of WAA will allow high temperatures to rise into the mid 40s to
lower 50s. This regime continues on Thursday with high rising into
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Thursday night into Friday will be the next chance for precipitation
however, it will only be a slight chance. Thursday night into Friday
a upper level disturbance will ride up the Mississippi River Valley
into the Ohio River Valley. The eastern portion CWA may experience
wrap around moisture from this disturbance. The precipitation will
be in the form of rain however as highs on Friday will continue to
be in the 50s. Saturday will stay warm but perhaps a few degrees
cooler as clouds increase during the day. Highs Saturday will be in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. The best chance for precipitation beyond
tonight will come in the Saturday night to Sunday timeframe as a
upper level trough ejects out from the southwestern CONUS into the
central Plains. Precipitation again will be in the form of rain as
highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

Challenging TAF this pd as cigs/vis/pcpn will all be aviation
concerns. Currently a warm front resides just south of the
terminals with moisture pooling just north of the boundary leading
to IFR cigs and fog reducing vsbys to 1-4SM. A surface low is out
acrs south central KS and is expected to move northeastward into
the VC of the terminals late this afternoon and evening. The warm
may lift far enough north to allow a brief pd of MVFR even low VFR
for a brief pd this afternoon (especially at IXD). However, the
current thinking is that cigs will stay IFR. As the surface low
move thru the VC of the terminals lgt rain will be possible btn
22Z-02Z. AS this low continues to move northeast of the terminals
it will drag a cold front thru the TAF site allowing wind to shift
the W to WNW btn 5-10kts and bring IFR cigs back into the TAF site
if there is a brief pd of MVFR. Tonight IFR cigs and fog will
again be an issue. Fog may become dense reducing vsbys to as low
as a quarter of a mile but have opted for 1SM at the time due to
widespread model variability in vsbys. Drizzle may also be an
issue overnight into the morning hours prompting a VCSH for that
pd at this time.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73



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