Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 230210 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
810 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TONIGHT...MAINLY TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT PER THE LATEST SHORT TERM LAYER MOISTURE MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SHOWS THIS INCREASE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT COULD
RESULT MOSTLY AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH IS USUALLY OF MINIMAL
IMPACT. CHOSE TO INCREASE WORDING TO NO MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR THOSE AREAS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. BMICKELSON

PLEASANT OCTOBER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR NE MT
BUT WINDS WILL BE BUSY ON FRIDAY.

UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A VERY LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXITING MONTANA TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS HEADED FOR THE
PACIFIC NW AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BE
INVADED BY A DEVELOPING CHINOOK ARCH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THE
THICKEST PORTION OF THE ARCH MOVES OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THINS FRIDAY.

THIS SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES A SURFACE LOW OVER ALBERTA THURSDAY THAT
FILLS OVER NORTHERN SASK FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS LINE UP WITH HIGHER
LEVEL WINDS TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS. AN HWO HAS BEEN ISSUED
MENTIONING THE THREAT FOR FORT PECK LAKE. TFJ


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNFORTUNATELY...BEYOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC MODEL WEATHER
PATTERNS ARE FRAUGHT WITH DISAGREEMENT...INCONSISTENCIES...AND A
NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF ANY TROUGHS OR UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

WHILE IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO INFER A GENERALLY COOLING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN SEEMS TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SUCCESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE EXTENDED
MODELS FALL COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS GENERAL LARGE
SCALE AGREEMENT WITH SOME VERSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER EASTERN MONTANA...BUT MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT
AND HIGHLY SPATIALLY VARIED.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRIED TO PRESENT A BLEND BETWEEN THE EC AND
GFS WHILE KEEPING POPS SILENT FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS
SHOWS ITSELF. THIS RESULTED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WHERE THE
MODELS SHOWED THE STRONGEST PRECIP...BUT THIS WAS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
FOR FAIR SKIES. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AFT 18Z LOOK FOR INCREASING
VFR CLOUDINESS. PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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