Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 291058
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
358 AM MST MON DEC 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AS THE LAST BIT
OF SNOW FINALLY EXITS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. RADAR
OBSERVATIONS HAVE A FEW ECHOES REMAINING ACROSS PETROLEUM AND
WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES. REDUCED VISIBILITY CONTINUES AT TIMES
IN NEARBY OBSERVATION SITES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD IMPROVEMENT. THUS...WILL DROP THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR PETROLEUM COUNTY BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 00Z SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND
-20C LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE EXPECT LITTLE RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO DEGREES. ANOTHER
PARTICULARLY COLD NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA WELL BELOW ZERO.

FOR TUESDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY BUT ONLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL LIKELY SEE ANY BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...FORECAST
REFLECTS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN NEAR ZERO OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL THEN SEE CONTINUED ARCTIC AIR AND WINDS
HOVERING AROUND 10 MPH.

WILL CONTINUE ON WITH THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH 11AM GIVEN
THESE ARGUMENTS FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE PROLONGED
NATURE OF THE COLD WITH THE PERSISTENT 10 MPH WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILLS NEARING 20 BELOW AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE CUMULATIVE
EFFECTS ON PETS AND LIVESTOCK AS WELL IN THESE CONDITIONS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WARM UP IN STORE BY
WEDNESDAY AS AN EXTENSION OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE HIGH NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL SEE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO PROMOTE
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE OCCURRED WITH THE 0Z MODEL RUNS FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. STILL INDICATING A STRENGTHENING HUDSON BAY LOW...RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST AND CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE CUT OFF LOW AND SLOWER EASTWARD
PROGRESSION LIMITS THE WESTWARD PUSH OF WAVES AND COLD AIR
ROUNDING THE HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS KEEPS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
OVER MONTANA INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL LATE ON SATURDAY PER THE GFS. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF EVEN
MORE...WITH BARELY BRINGING ANY COLD AIR OR SNOW INTO THE STATE.
MODERATED THE FORECAST GIVEN THE NEWEST MODEL TRENDS BUT
MAINTAINED A WETTER AND COLDER FORECAST THEN THE GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE PROFOUND CHANGE. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY. CLEARING SKIES POSSIBLE TONIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DAWSON...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM...PRAIRIE...
RICHLAND...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WIBAUX.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR DANIELS...
EASTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN VALLEY...SHERIDAN...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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