Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 030850
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
250 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SYNOPTIC SETUP... A LARGE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS AND CANADA. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES UNDER NORTHER FLOW
ALOFT ON THE EASTERN MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE RIDGE. FARTHER WEST
AN EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH RESIDES OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE
CWA AND REACH PROMINENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REACH UP TO THE LOWER TO MID 20*C,
WHICH COULD EASILY GENERATE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AS THE RIDGE EXITS LATE THURSDAY COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SEMI UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS MAY LEAD TO A RAIN
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN MOST
ZONES IN THE EVENING HOURS. GAH


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOKS
GOOD...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY. AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT
AND ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE MORE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OUT
LEADING UP TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
SOUTHERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CUT OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY FORM OFF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WOULD DRAPE
DOWN INTO MOTANA LATE ON MONDAY. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS
TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY CONVERGE WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT...INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BIGELBACH



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE AND BEYOND.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TODAY.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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