Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 221111
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...

No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Winds will be light and fairly variable
as surface high pressure moves into the area. Otherwise, just a
few high clouds moving overhead today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under meridional flow aloft, courtesy
of a highly-amplified ridge over the western CONUS.  An upper trough
is forecast to make landfall in the PacNW later in the week,
dampening the ridge somewhat and transitioning flow aloft to NW.
Thicknesses are set to increase thru Friday, when afternoon temps
will soar into the 80s for much of the FA.  Unfortunately, the
aforementioned PacNW trough will drop a cold front into the region
Friday night, knocking temps down around 10 deg F Sat afternoon. The
upper ridge then builds east into Mexico, and temps try to recover
Sun/Mon, but a secondary trough will move thru the central CONUS
Tue, sending a secondary front into the area Tue.  This front looks
to be much stronger than the first, pushing temps well-blo normal
Wed afternoon.  GFS Chiclets has been consistently signaling fire wx
concerns for Tue, and this will need to be monitored, as well.
Unfortunately, thru this entire forecast, return flow is exiguous,
and so with little moisture to work with as a result, the grids stay
dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  39  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       61  37  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         66  40  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  62  42  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 59  46  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          63  33  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  40  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         61  40  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           62  36  75  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/44


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