Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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014
FXUS64 KMAF 232301
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
501 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions at all area terminals will deteriorate this evening,
beginning at 24/03Z at KMAF, with lower conditions possibly
spreading far enough west to affect KCNM, KPEQ and KFST.  Will go
with VLIFR ceiling/visibility in fog at KMAF, KHOB and KINK, the
latter two by 24/06Z.  Surface winds will come around to the west
late tonight and shunt the low clouds and fog eastward, probably
clearing the easternmost terminal, KMAF, by 24/11Z.  Thereafter, VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/

An upper level trough is over the western conus with southwest flow
over the CWA. Temperatures today will be warmer than yesterday with
the surface high having less influence and the surface trough across
the higher terrain having more influence. The cooler temperatures
will be across the northeast CWA closer to the surface high and
under the increased cloud cover. Good low-level moisture will be
present tonight across the eastern CWA. There is expected to be
light drizzle across much of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. Further to the east, light rain showers along with isolated
thunderstorms are possible.

The previously mentioned upper trough will move over the central
conus on Saturday with the base of the trough moving over the CWA.
Higher winds from the base of the trough will mix down toward the
surface resulting in high winds across the Guadalupe Mountains where
a High Wind Warning is in effect. Gusty west winds are expected
across the plains and patchy blowing dust will be possible Saturday
afternoon across the Permian Basin. Temperatures will be a little
bit cooler across much of the area on Saturday as a Pacific front
moves into the region accompanied by westerly winds. Another upper
trough will be behind the heals of the previous one and will move
over the region on Sunday. This trough will result in more westerly
winds and warmer temperatures from the previous day due to downslope
warming. Another upper trough will dig southward over the west coast
on Monday with west to southwest flow over the CWA. Southerly
surface winds will be across the area keeping temperatures near or
just above normal for this time of year. The upper trough digs
further south on Tuesday with southwest flow aloft over the region.
Temperatures are expected to warm up from the previous day as a
result. This upper trough will pass over the region on Wednesday
with the base of the upper trough passing over the CWA. Strong west
winds are expected and temperatures will cool a little bit as a
Pacific front moves into the area. There is also a slight chance of
rain showers across eastern sections of the CWA Tuesday night.
Temperatures are expected to remain warm through the extended
forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Warmer and windy wx is expected on Sat and the combination of
forecast wind/RH will result in RFTI of mostly 4-6. Meanwhile the
recent moist period increased the composite fuel moisture picture
with ERC-G values mostly expected around the 50th percentile. As
such the combination of wx/fuel leads to the either or case of a
Fire Danger Statement or low end RFW. Temperatures Sat will right
around normal (low to mid 60s) in most areas with a notable absence
of a low-level thermal ridge in wake of the Pacific front. Thus
we will side toward the Fire Danger Statement. The Fire Danger
forecast (representing the grass) will probably be high/very high
and there is still an increased potential for Initial Attack
fires, but the Significant Fire Potential will remain low.

Fire wx concerns will increase on Sunday, but composite fuels are
not likely to have dried sufficiently for a warning. A strong drying
trend is expected into mid-week. Tue will be the warmest/driest day,
but Wed the windiest. Initial thoughts are that wx/composite fuels
will be sufficient for watches/warnings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  65  32  68 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       37  63  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         48  75  40  76 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  64  36  70 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  51  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          35  58  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          34  57  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  63  33  68 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         44  62  33  67 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           38  64  30  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Saturday
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Saturday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/



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