Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 262308

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

See aviation discussion below.


VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Gusty west to southwest winds
will diminish near sunset with south to southwest winds of
generally 10 mph or less expected overnight through mid Saturday
morning. Winds will become westerly and increase to 15 to 25 mph
and gusty by mid to late Saturday morning through Saturday



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

A broad upper level jet is currently streaming moisture in the
form of mid and upper level clouds across West Texas and
southeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Most models do not show
any precip from this, however the GFS/RAP/HRRR all show some
widely scattered convection developing in an area from near
Presidio to Midland so have introduced some low PoPs this evening
to account for this. Westerly flow will continue for one more day
tomorrow with highs again reaching the upper 90s and low 100s at
many locations.

A low over south central Canada will send a cold front through the
area on Sunday dropping high temperatures back into the 80s. A
dryline ahead of the front will be a surface focus for convection
Saturday evening in our southeastern CWA with another chance for
scattered showers coming with the cold front early Sunday morning.
The front will scour moisture out of the Permian Basin leaving it
mainly west of the Pecos River Monday and Tuesday where PoPs will
be highest.

Models are in fairly good agreement that the remainder of next
week will be relatively cool and possibly wet. All have highs in
the 80s (90s along the Rio Grande) and rain across the area, the
main question is timing and amounts. An upper low will form over
southern California/northwestern Mexico on Wednesday and will
drift east the latter part of next week. Forecast uncertainty is
in the strength of the low and timing of numerous disturbances it
ejects across our area. At this time the most likely scenario is
the low (or strong s/w trough) will provide the highest rain
chances on Tuesday and Wednesday, with PoPs decreasing Thursday
and Friday as the system moves off to our east. But again the
timing is very uncertain so for now will just try to capture the
general cooler and wetter trend.


WV imagery shows SW flow aloft continues over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, while at the sfc, gusty westerly downslope
warming has resulted in another warm afternoon, w/consequent RH at
15% or less over much of the area.  A canopy of mid/high cloud has
put a damper on mixing, and wind speeds are not as high as
previously anticipated. The dryline is currently east of the CWA,
but will retreat somewhat after sunset.

Temperatures Saturday will be similar to today`s, and continued
westerly flow and poor recovery overnight will result in widespread
single-digit RH again Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings mix
again to around, on average, 625mb, where 30-40kt SW flow is
forecast. This will once again result in critical fire wx conditions
over SE NM and most of Culberson County, where RTFIs of 7-8 are
forecast. Thus, we`ll issue another Fire Wx Watch for Saturday
afternoon. ERC is now at or above-normal for the entire forecast
area, but critical winds do not look to materialize for areas
outside the watch Saturday afternoon.


Big Spring                     71  99  65  82 /  10   0  10  30
Carlsbad                       65  96  59  84 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         74  99  72  88 /  20  10  30  40
Fort Stockton                  71  98  67  82 /  20  10  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 64  86  58  76 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                          62  92  57  81 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          60  91  58  81 /  20   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           70  99  64  82 /  20   0  10  20
Odessa                         70  98  64  82 /  20   0  10  20
Wink                           67  98  63  85 /  20   0  10  20


NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54



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