Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 220818

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
318 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017


Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this morning with
temperatures mainly in the 70s. Currently, a cold front extends
from eastern Wisconsin through southeast Nebraska and into eastern
Colorado. This cold front should drop south today reaching into
southern Missouri by late this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop ahead of the front with some of this
activity moving into northern sections of the forecast area this
afternoon. A few thunderstorms could produce damaging winds.
Temperatures will be on the hot side with highs in the low to mid
90s. Heat index values could exceed 100 degrees in the afternoon.

The cold front will move into the forecast area tonight with more
thunderstorms expected. Some of these thunderstorms could also
produce some damaging winds. Temperatures will remain on the warm
side with lows Wednesday morning in the upper 60s to lower 70s. By
Wednesday, the cold front will move through north Mississippi in
the morning with more thunderstorms possible. Cooler air will
start to move into the forecast area so temperatures will not be
as warm with highs in the low to mid 80s.

High pressure will build into the region by Wednesday night
bringing a lengthy period of dry weather for the region. No rain
is expected from Wednesday night through Saturday. Temperatures
will remain below normal through the period.

The forecast for Sunday and Monday will be highly dependent on
what happens to what is now the remnants of what was once Tropical
Storm Harvey. The models show the remnants to reorganize once they
reach the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen before they reach the
Texas Coast on Friday. The models then bring Harvey inland and
then track it east and weaken it. The GFS has what`s left of
Harvey over northeast Louisiana by Monday morning. This scenario
could mean some heavy rainfall for portions of the forecast area
east of the Mississippi River. GFS rainfall forecast has 6 to 10
inches of rain possible over north Mississippi for Monday. With
this in mind, will mention the possibility of heavy rainfall in
the HWO.



06Z TAF Set

VFR still expected for most of this period....though fog may pose
a problem early at MKl and then frontal convection will bring
MVFR/IFR conditions to JBR...MEM and MKL. Though TUP will start
to see activity at the very end of the period...they should
remain VFR. Lower cigs behind the front will develop at JBR...but
expecting them to hold off until later forecast periods for the
remaining TAF sites. Light south through west winds will increase
to 6-10kts after sunrise...with higher gusts expected in storms.




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