Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 240833
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
333 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front has moved through the Midsouth, currently located
along a line from Greenwood, MS to Columbus Air Force Base to
Jasper, AL. Dew points along and south of the front remain in the
middle 70s. A drier airmass is moving in from the North. At Walnut
Ridge, AR and Pine Bluff, MO, dew points are in the low 60s. That
drier air should gradually push across the MidSouth during the
day today. Any rain showers should be confined to Northeast MS
today. Clouds may linger for much of the day across North MS and
East central AR, but Most of West TN...the Missouri Bootheel and
Northeast AR should see some sunshine by the afternoon hours.

We will see zonal to weak Northwest flow over the Midsouth today
and tomorrow...gradually transitioning to stronger Northwest Flow
early next week. The synoptic pattern Monday night is the type we
in which often see MCS`s this time of year in the Midsouth.
Guidance does show some indication of this happening...but these
systems are notoriously difficult to forecast more than just 12
hrs out. Will include 20% pops for now and keep the HWO hazard-
free but this will be a time frame than needs to be closely
monitored over the weekend.

Temperatures this weekend into early next week will be below
normal...in the low to middle 80s for highs with overnight lows
ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Northwest flow will become zonal again by midweek. Surface High
pressure will shift to the East along the Atlantic Coast. For now
I do not see any signs of organized storms next week...but
afternoon Summertime pop-up thunderstorms will become a bit more
likely Thursday and Friday as temperatures rebound into the upper
80s. It looks like enhanced rain chances will return next weekend
as a broad trough develops over the Plains and shifts East.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

A few rain showers continue across northeast MS late this evening
but should have minimal operational impact. This activity will
continue to move off to the south and east as a cold front moves
across the Mid-South. Periods of MVFR ceilings are expected at
KTUP through mid-morning with generally VFR conditions at the
remaining forecast terminals. Patchy fog will be possible
overnight should skies briefly clear out, but the cirrus canopy
should preclude a widespread fog potential. Expect light winds
this evening becoming north at 7-10 kts early Saturday.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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