Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 300903
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
403 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Currently...Weak surface high pressure across the region this
morning with weak ridging aloft. Thin high clouds cover the
Mid-South and temps range from the lower 60s near Paris to lower
70s at Memphis International. Patchy fog has developed at a few
locations.

Today through Tuesday night... Weak disturbances moving through
the weak zonal flow will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms across Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. Some
of this activity may survive to reach areas west of I-55 this
afternoon and perhaps a little farther east on Tuesday. A strong
storm with gusty winds is possible. Airmass will be more hostile
to convection across eastern sections where slightly drier air
will be working in on a weak NE/E flow. High temps will hit 90 at
quite a few locations both days especially along and south of
I-40. Lows will range from the lower 60s along the Tennessee River
to upper 60s in the Delta tonight...slightly warmer Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday...An upper trough will move into the Middle
and Upper Mississippi Valleys pushing a cold front toward the Mid-
South. Expect shower and thunderstorms coverage to increase as the
front sags into the area. By Thursday the front will stall across
the area as a cut off low moves into Texas and slows its
progression. There is a very marginal increase in 0-6km shear due
with the upper trough moving by to the north that when combined
with moderate instability could result in a few severe storms
during the period. Temps will warm to 85 to 90 ahead of the front
on Wednesday. By Thursday locations across the north will see
cooler temps with the front...clouds and precipitation in the
area.

Friday through Monday...The upper low over Texas will slowly
meander east during the period. The GFS is more progressive and
as a result the cold front moves south with potentially drier and
cooler weather for much of the area this next weekend. The ECMWF
is slower which hangs the front up and keeps rain chances going
through the weekend mainly south of I-40. Used a blend of the
models.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

Scattered to broken high cloudiness will prevail over the Midsouth
tonight. Sufficient breaks may occur toward sunrise for areas of
brief IFR visibility. Otherwise VFR to prevail through late Monday
afternoon. GFS and NAM indicate scattered late afternoon TSRA over
central AR, a few of which may approach JBR toward evening.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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