Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 061214
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
714 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT SOME STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THEN BREAK UP
AGAIN LATER IN THE MORNING.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL ERODE AS AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS EXIST TODAY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
INCREASING HEAT INDICES TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 100F.

SWC

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (06/12Z-07/12Z)

INCREASED WINDS HAVE PROHIBITED FOG FROM FORMING AT ALL SITES BUT
KTUP. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO DEVELOPING STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING WITH MORE CONFIDENCE FOR THESE
CONDITIONS AT KTUP AND KMEM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS
STRATUS LIFTS LATER IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER COVERAGE OCCURING
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. ADDED VCTS FOR KJBR..KMEM..KMKL.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TODAY AT 6-10KTS AND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 23KTS AT KJBR.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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