Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 220550 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1150 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE GREATEST DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED
EARLY/OCCURRING NOW...WITH A LEVELING OVERNIGHT AS RETURN FLOW
BEGINS. ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM
CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TONIGHT
AND IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
MILDER AIR...RAIN CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WRF/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE
QUESTIONABLE AND CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IF LATER MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A
BETTER STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND REMOVED THE RAIN
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX FROM THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON CHRISTMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE 12Z
ECMWF IS THE SLOWER AND WETTER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS. HAVE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS WITH A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS LOWER POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL LONG TERM MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

FEW CHANGES FROM THE 00Z TAFS THE 03Z MEM AMD TAF. GOES
MULTICHANNEL IR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW STRATUS DECK BETWEEN UOX AND
MEM...MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWEST. CIGS WERE MAINLY IFR BEHIND THE
LEADING EDGE. EXPECT MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...AHEAD OF A
NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

PERSISTENCE FOLLOWS INTO THE DAY MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME
INCREASE TO MVFR IN THE LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. HOWEVER... INCREASING RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY EFFECTIVELY
KEEP CIGS IFR MOST OF THE DAY.

IT APPEARS THAT VFR OR PERHAPS HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT MEM
MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND DRY AIR
ABOVE FL030 MIXING DOWN NEAR THE SURFACE.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.