Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 252109
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
309 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
AFERNOON PLACE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINIOS
THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF
2 PM CST...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE APPALACIANS BY
MONDAY AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND/AFTER 06Z...AND HAVE
LEFT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/S FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE.

SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW END
FOR NOW.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLE FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...LIKELY INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS OVER 20KT. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURING AT MEM AND
MKL....SHOULD BEGIN AT TUP IN AN HOUR OR TWO...AND HAVE ENDED AT
JBR. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SOME GUIDANCE HINTING THAT LIGHTENING IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE TS AT ANY STATION FOR NOW AND WAIT TO SEE IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT ACTUALLY OCCURS. PREVAILING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.
SHOWERS SHOULD END AREA WIDE BY MIDNIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR LEVELS IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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