Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 302034
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MCV HELPED TO
TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
SOUTH TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECAME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. STORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND LATEST KNQA VAD PROFILER SHOWS MODEST
DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND 30 KTS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THESE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
BY LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER MCV LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE NEW CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLAN TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THESE AREAS WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40. THE AIRMASS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND
LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM ALMOST EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
MID SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK TO NEAR AND
EVENTUALLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AN MCV CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TEMPOS FOR TSRA HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT KMKL AND KTUP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY
REDUCTIONS. AT KMEM AND KJBR WILL CARRY VCTS ALONG WITH VFR CIGS
WHERE COVERAGE IS LOWER.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH A RETURN TO
AREAWIDE VFR CONDITIONS. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS SHOULD
TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MVFR
CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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