Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 061124
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A CONTINUATION
OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY...RISING INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S AND 60S.

BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF A BIT MORE
ROBUST AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE AS COMPARED TO THE LATEST
00Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. AT THIS POINT...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MONDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. DETAILS REGARDING SPECIFICS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED
OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT PLAN TO AT LEAST ADD MENTION
OF A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES INTERACT
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS AND MODULATED ONLY BY CONVECTIVE OCCURRENCE.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

JLH

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 7-10KTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER
1Z.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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