Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 142143
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
343 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

AT 3PM... SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1036 MB HIGH OVER NEW YORK
STATE WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH AS A
RESULT. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM NEAR HICKORY RIDGE
ARKANSAS NORTHEAST TO NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE. WINDS TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE HAVE BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED A DEGREE OR SO AT SOME LOCALES AS A RESULT. PRECIPITATION
IS ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FEATURE...MUCH OF WHICH COULD BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EXTREME
NORTH WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS BELOW FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST. CONCERN FOR
CONTINUED FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS PROMPTED THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN
TEMPERATURES IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB.
WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS LEFT IN THOSE AREAS AT THAT TIME WOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN...ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS BUILDING
INTO THESE LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT.

A DEVELOPING LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS A
WAVE AMPLIFIES ALOFT...INDUCING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH. MODELS MARCH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS BY LATE
MONDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. 1 TO 3
INCHES OF QPF IS POSSIBLE OVER MANY OF THESE AREAS BY EARLY
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A PORTION OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL
BECOME ENVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 60 IN THOSE LOCATIONS...UPPER
40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE...WHILE ALSO CREATING A CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE AT BEST. THE LOW MOVES EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MIDSOUTH ON TUESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS AND NAM WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...SO ONLY INCLUDED POPS FOR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA.
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

DRIER AND A TAD COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WARMING TREND
BEGINS ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...RETURNING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. A RIDGE ALSO BUILDS IN ALOFT WHICH WILL
LEAD TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70...SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY.

RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN NEXT WEEKEND WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM A LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION NEXT
SUNDAY.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

RADAR TRENDS SHOWING BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TENNESSEE LATE THIS MORNING.
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT MKL EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS SUGGEST BEST
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL
ARRIVE BY TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT TO MVFR
THEN IFR CONDITIONS...EVEN PERHAPS A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS AT JBR LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

CJC


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLAY-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BENTON TN-
     HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$


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