Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 161731
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI
AND POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS ARE INCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE MEMPHIS
METRO AREA. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE.
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME BREAKS LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IN
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE KY BORDER WHILE PARTS OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI REMAIN MILD NEAR 80 DEGREES. DROPPED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES NORTH OF THE MS/TN BORDER DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
CURRENT TEMPS.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

CURRENTLY SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH RH`S AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. A SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT
HAD JUST ENTERED NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...HOWEVER RADAR SHOWED THAT LINGERING SHOWERS
WERE RUNNING WEST TO EAST WELL OUT AHEAD...FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WAS DRY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S...WITH MOST STATIONS
REPORTING CALM WINDS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY SPARKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT
BELIEVE THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT/HINDRANCE. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR OVER THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE THE GREATEST SHORT
TERM DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE. LIGHT NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S NORTH AND EAST...WITH
WARMER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST DELTA REGION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN THE
MIDSOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS
SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA...WITH THE DELTA COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR A SOAKING RAIN. HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGHS ON
THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. NOT SURE YET HOW
MUCH THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AS THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISPARITY REGARDING ELEVATED CAPE AMOUNTS...OR THE LACK THERE OF.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN THEIR EXIT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST AS AN UPPER RIDGE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES TO THE MID AND UPPER
80S...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MODELS DEPICT THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE SURGING INTO THE PLAINS AND PHASING WITH A
THE NEXT DIVING SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS PERIOD AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE NEXT WAVE CROSSES THE REGION.
SURPRISINGLY THE TIMING IS PRETTY MUCH UNIFORM BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EURO WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS AREAWIDE.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT IFR CEILINGS AT KMKL AND KMEM WILL GRADUALLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KJBR AND KTUP FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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