Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 150844
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
344 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND LAKES AND WATERWAYS...AS WELL AS ON
THE PLATEAU EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GET
SMALLER. THIS FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 7 OR 8 AM BUT KEEP IT IN MIND
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE FOCUS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER HAS BEEN
OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.  WHILE WE WILL HAVE A FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THAT DIRECTION THIS EVENING...THE WEATHER MAKER FOR MIDDLE TN
MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.  AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD TODAY
AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEAST U.S...WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPARK UP.  THIS IS MORE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS...AND WHILE THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...THE COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY
LIMITED FOR US.  IN FACT...OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY BE THE ONLY
ONES TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY.  AS FOR THE REST OF THE MID-STATE...HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT THAT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW.  THIS JUST DOESN`T LOOK TO HAVE ANY PUNCH
WITH IT AS THE PARENT LOW REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH IN CANADA.
THE BULK OF WHAT WE MAY SEE IS ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...WITH MAYBE A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OVERALL
ENERGY TO SPEAK OF...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS NORTHERLY...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE IDEA OF ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT
TO SPARK SOME ELEVATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY SMALL CHANCE...BUT SOMETHING TO MENTION NONETHELESS.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.
IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY
FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM
CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE STATE.  FOR
NOW...THERE`S NO GREAT CONCERN FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.   MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ATTM CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...AND
WHILE THE FRONT ISN`T THAT SHARP NOR DOES IT CARRY MUCH OF A PUNCH
IN CURRENT SOLUTIONS...IT WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG ALREADY BEGINNING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH ALL AREAS EXPERIENCING AT
LEAST LIGHT FOG TOWARD 12Z.

AFT 12Z FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH SCT CLOUD COVER UNTIL 00Z. AFT
00Z...MID LEVEL DECK WILL RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      80  63  77  55 /  10  20  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    78  60  74  53 /  10  20  10  10
CROSSVILLE     77  61  75  54 /  30  20  10  10
COLUMBIA       79  63  78  57 /  20  20  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   80  63  80  57 /  20  20  20  10
WAVERLY        78  61  76  54 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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