Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 231125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017




Surface map at 07Z shows TD Cindy centered near Little Rock as a
1003 mb low. Pressure gradient remains strong over Middle
Tennessee, but the only echoes showing up are occurring along the
Cumberland Plateau as part of a line of convection moving
northeastward through Alabama. The remnants of this tropical
system are expected to turn northeasterly today with the low
center just clipping the northwest corner of Middle Tennessee
around mid-afternoon. The most recent day 1 convective outlook
from the SPC places essentially the entire mid state under a
slight risk of severe storms. The strongest convection will likely
be concentrated on the eastern side of the low. Both low-level
shear and low-level lapse rates will increase as the storm`s axis
approaches the mid state, and damaging straight-line winds and
isolated tornadoes remain the biggest threats, along with the
threat of flooding/flash flooding owing to large QPF`s from 12Z
through 06Z this evening. Amounts ranging from around an inch
across the Cumberland Plateau to more than 2 inches northwest of
BNA can be expected during this period, with the heaviest amounts
forecast in the area of the flash flood watch. Look for POP`s to
begin diminishing from northwest to southeast after 06Z tonight as
the surface trough inches its way across Middle Tennessee, with
still some leftover POP`s Saturday morning across our eastern and
southern areas. Afterwards, the remainder of the weekend looks to
be quite pleasant, with cooler air (several degrees cooler than
normal) settling in and lasting until Wednesday or Thursday when
return flow starts to advect warmer air into Middle Tennessee. At
this time, it appears that any rain chances will hold off until
next Thursday night or Friday.



VFR to MVFR flight conditions at issuance. Rains from TS Cindy are
just off to the west and will begin affecting Middle TN terminals
over the next few hours. I tried to time things out, however hi-
res models are not handling timing of rain onset well. Some IFR
flight rules will settle into the region later this afternoon and
evening and likely last for the rest of the overnight period into
Saturday morning.

Winds will pick up late this morning with southerly gusts of
18 to 25 kts throughout the afternoon hours. Winds will relax
tonight, however, not go calm.



Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Saturday
morning FOR Cheatham-Clay-Davidson-Dickson-Hickman-Houston-



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