Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 121530
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1030 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
COMPLEX IN THE OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE SE THIS MORNING...
CURRENT MOVING INTO EXTREME S IN. MODELS SUGGESTING IT WILL
LARGELY DIE OFF BEFORE REACHING THE MID-STATE AS MID LEVELS
PRETTY WARM...HOVERING 8-9C THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AN ISO STORM
OR TWO POSSIBLY N/PLATEAU BUT HOT AND DRY WX EXPECTED FOR MOST.
MADE SMALL TEMP TWEAK E BUT OTHERWISE ONGOING FCST IN LINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR VIS TO CKV EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW/SCT CUMULUS AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF 5 KTS OR LESS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
TRAJECTORIES WOULD PUT THIS AREA OF MOISTURE...AS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND NOTED ON THE LINCOLN, IL (KILX) SOUNDING...OVER
THE MID-SOUTH LATER TODAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COVERAGE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WILL HELP SPAWN CONVECTION AGAIN
TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPC DAY
3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWS THE MID-SOUTH IN A SLIGHT RISK...BUT
ANTICIPATE THE GREATEST THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN. WIDESPREAD STORM
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LIGHT WIND SPEED FIELDS.

GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH THE TIMING OF WHEN FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...BUT ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS FOR MID-JULY. ENJOY THE UPPER 70S TO LOW-MID 80S HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S MAY FLIRT WITH RECORD LOWS IN SOME AREAS...BUT THINK THEY WILL
COME UP SHORT GIVEN THE LACK OF A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
MID-STATE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07




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