Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 261155
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
555 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL CHANGE THIS
THOUGH, BRINGING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT KCKV. BY 21-23Z THIS AFTERNOON, CIGS SHOULD START TO
FALL AT THE KCKV TERMINAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY SATURATES.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST.

BY 03Z WE MAY VERY WELL START TO SEE A CHANGEOVER FROM -RA TO -SN.
WHILE KCKV AND KBNA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS...KCSV
JUST MIGHT SEE SOME BY 12Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OFF
OVERNIGHT...AND VIS WILL BE REDUCED WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION.

WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOMES NWLY THIS EVENING.  8 TO 10 KTS WILL BE COMMON.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT FOR THE
PRECIP OVER THE EAST COAST IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CONUS. MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS STAYED EAST OF THE CWA...AND
CURRENTLY THE CLOUD COVER IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE CLIPPER SHOULD MOVE IN QUICKLY
BEHIND THE LARGER TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LED BY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

THE SHORTWAVE IMPACTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION QUICKLY...BUT
ANTICIPATING THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW IS DIFFICULT ATTM.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW BY PLACING IT AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL KY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TN/AL BORDER.
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES NOT ONLY AT
THE SURFACE BUT ALSO ALOFT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE OBVIOUSLY
SHOWING THE DIFFERENCES. THIS WILL AFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS AND ALSO
WHEN THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW BEGINS. WENT WITH MORE OF A
BLENDED SOLUTION WITH SNOW AMOUNTS THAT KEPT TOTALS UP TO AN INCH
FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY. MOST OF THE QPF FROM THE MODELS
FALLS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD GET SNOW AFTER THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING CHANCES FOR SOME FLURRIES ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH AROUND NOON OR SO
THURSDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART KEPT CHANCES LOW FOR POPS
THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AS 850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BETWEEN
MODELS. AS INDICATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION BROAD ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BY SATURDAY WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LINGERING INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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