Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 211504
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1004 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIT OF PATCHY FOG STILL REMAINS
ON THE TN RIVER BUT OTHERWISE HAS DISSIPATED. CURRENTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT SOME LOW CLOUD COVER IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF KY TOWARDS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S PLATEAU TO MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THIS COVERED AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO GRIDS AND ZONES.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

TERMINALS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CKV...MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
FROM RIVER/LOW-LYING FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THOUGH BY
DAYBREAK AS A DRY FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE AREA WILL SHIFT
LIGHT WSW WINDS TO NWRLY WINDS FROM 10-18 KTS ROUGHLY. THE FRONT
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BKN STRATO-CU TO MAINLY CSV...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55




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