Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 031951
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM...POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
LARGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AND PEAKING DURING THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. EVEN TODAY SMALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE PUT DOWN QUITE A BIT OF RAIN IN A SMALL
TIMEFRAME. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS HIGHEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

AS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY EVENING FORECAST...MODELS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE JUST A BIT PLACING PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE CWA.
CURRENTLY...PRECIP SEEMS MORE LIKELY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I40. SHORT
TERM MODELS DO DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON QPF PLACEMENT...BUT THE NAM
WANTS TO PLACE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH MORE OF
A CONSENSUS SINCE IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE SCATTERED
OVER THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY OVERNIGHT. HOPEFULLY MODELS TREND
BACK A BIT AND HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
FESTIVITIES. CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME ARE ROUGHLY
25 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES UP TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CWA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL IN
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES ATTM. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP PUSH THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS A BIT
LOWER TO SCHC/CHC ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER HIGH
PLAINS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND EASTERN CONUS. COMBINED WITH MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACTIVITY...POPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS IS LAGGING BEHIND THE ECMWF PLACING A TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EAST COAST WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT FURTHER WEST IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UNCERTAINTY
HAS DROPPED POPS JUST A BIT FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      84  68  81  67 /  70  60  50  40
CLARKSVILLE    82  67  82  66 /  60  50  30  30
CROSSVILLE     77  65  75  63 /  70  80  60  60
COLUMBIA       82  67  80  66 /  80  80  50  50
LAWRENCEBURG   79  67  79  66 /  80  80  60  50
WAVERLY        81  67  80  67 /  70  60  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

BARNWELL



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