Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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308
FXUS64 KOHX 292331
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
631 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Heavy rains falling over eastern Middle Tennessee along and north
of interstate 40 with flooding being reported in some areas.
Activity has been generally pulling east but will take another
couple of hours or so before exiting the Upper Cumberland. Been
watching convective activity back in Arkansas that is out ahead of
short wave punching through eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas
at this time based on latest RAP. This activity will continue to
move east and be along the Mississippi River later this
afternoon. H-triple-R weakens this activity as it gets east of
Mississippi River. Will keep pops going this evening...higher in
the west...then a 30 pop overnight across the board. There`s so
many minor short waves that will traverse the area over the next
several days it will be hard to time and key on any of them so
will keep pops in the forecast over the weekend and right on
through much of next week. Also stationary surface frontal
boundary currently draped from southern Missouri across far
southern Illinois into southern Indiana will remain insitu into
next week. Basic upper level pattern will be trough over eastern
U.S. through the weekend into early next week then an upper level
ridge begins to develop in the southern plains about Tuesday and
Wednesday and builds in this direction with hotter temps
returning.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions this evening with scattered TS around Middle TN. TS
activity will wane after sunset leaving a very wet ground to help
with some patchy fog development after 08Z tonight. Some IFR vis
can be expected, especially at KCSV. Winds will be light and
variable. A few thunderstorms will be possible again by late
Saturday morning.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........Unger



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