Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 190517
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM AND FLAT ALTOCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT MAX ACROSS GILA
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z PSR
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 MB AND 400 MB...WHICH HAS INHIBITED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL CAPE IS AVAILABLE BELOW 500 MB AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND FORECAST POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WERE RETAINED THROUGH 5
AM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINTS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN ALTOCU WITH BASES NEAR 9K FT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MORNING...THEN THIN OUT AFTER 15Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
FROM THIS DECK...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT KIPL AND KBLH. MAIN AVIATION IMPACT
WILL BE AT KIPL WHERE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT THROUGH 09Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





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