Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 171300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
900 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Cool and dry high pressure will build into the Mid-atlantic
today. The high pressure system will moderate and persist into
the first part of the weekend. A cold front will approach the
region late in the weekend.


As of 900 AM Tuesday...

A 1030mb surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic States
will result in a picturesque Autumn day across central NC today.
Aside from some patchy thin jet streak cirrus across eastern NC,
expect abundant sunshine with a steady northerly breeze of
6 to 10 kts, that will occasionally gust into the lower teens.
Highs today will range from near 62 across the northern Piedmont
near the VA border to 67 across the southern Piedmont and Sandhills.

Clear skies and decoupling winds will result in ideal radiational
cooling conditions. Lows tonight will generally range in the upper
30s to lower 40s with readings in the 30s most common in rural areas
in the Piedmont. A few of the typically colder locations to the west
of U.S. route 1 could have lows in the 35 to 38 range which may
result in some patchy short-lived frost. Will include a mention of
frost in the HWO but not issue an advisory due to the isolated
nature of the frost and low confidence.


As of 335 AM Tuesday...

Clear skies and fair weather is expected on Wednesday as the
region remains under the control of surface high pressure.
Upper-level heights rise a bit and the air mass moderates
allowing high temperatures on Wednesday to increase about 5
degrees over today`s highs. Max temperatures on Wednesday will
range from 68 north to 73 south. Clear skies on Wednesday
evening could give way to some patchy stratus across the Coastal
Plain toward daybreak Thursday as a low-level return flow
develops. Guidance differs on the the extent of the moisture
return so will just include scattered clouds at this time. Good
radiational cooling under a warming air mass will result in an
prominent surface inversion with variable surface temperatures
by morning. Lows should moderate a few degrees over the
previous morning`s lows with mins ranging from 39 to 47 degrees.


As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure over the region will continue to dominate the
weather late week into the weekend. The surface high is forecast to
shift offshore by late Saturday into Sunday. Given this and a mid
level ridge building over the area, expect generally clear/sunny
skies Thursday and Friday. Mid level ridging will slowly shift to
the east of the area during the weekend. This combined with surface
high pressure moving offshore will lead to slowly increasing cloud
cover during the weekend. The next surface front is expected to
approach the area late weekend into Monday, with increasing chances
of showers and isolated storms by Monday.

High temps will continue a moderating trend late week, with highs
expected to be in the mid to upper 70s. High temps will be similar
for the weekend into early next week (though highs on Monday will be
dependent on precip/timing of the next system), generally in the
70s, with perhaps a few locations making it into the low 80s. Low
temps in the 40s to stat the period will moderate into the 50s, to
near 60 by the end of the period.


As of 625 AM Tuesday...

High confidence of VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF
period as surface high pressure builds into the region. A strong
upper-level jet stream will bring periods of cirrus clouds
across mainly eastern locations through early this afternoon,
otherwise skies will be clear through Wednesday morning. Winds
will remain northerly today at 6 to 10 kts with an occasional
gust of 12-15kts, especially across the eastern Piedmont and
Coastal Plain this afternoon. Winds will become very light to
calm tonight.

Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...Surface high pressure
will persist across the area into the weekend. This will result
in a period of generally fair weather with VFR conditions. One
exception will be the potential for some patchy daybreak
stratus across the Coastal Plain on Thursday and Saturday
mornings. -Blaes




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