Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 010225
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1024 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE... A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 PM MONDAY...

A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT FAVORS FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH THE FORMATION OF STRATUS LIKELY. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY CUT DOWN
ON THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. THE MAIN ISSUES THEN OVERNIGHT ARE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WEST... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND ROXBORO... WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NW... BUT
REMAIN 70-73 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

INT/GSO: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (09-13Z). OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

RDU/FAY/RWI: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE PRESENCE OF CALM
WINDS...MOIST AIRMASS...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ATTENDANT EITHER LOW CEILINGS OR
LOW VISBYS IN DENSE DOG...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOTE: THE RDU
TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG
TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MORNING. -VINCENT

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT


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