Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 270556
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will cross the area today, followed by high
pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 PM EDT Monday...

Very pleasant night over central NC as temperatures begin to sink
into the 60s in some northern locations at this time with low 70s
across the rest of the area. Some cloud cover across the central
portion of the area will keep temperatures from bottoming out for a
while but should still see some upper 50s in some locations across
the nw Piedmont which has a better chance of seeing some clear skies
for a while. Conditions should remain VFR through the overnight
hours and winds are expected to be calm to light and variable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

The s/w cross central NC late Tuesday/early Tuesday evening. Lift
associated with the system, coupled with afternoon heating and
available moisture should spark the development of a few showers by
mid day across the Piedmont. This convective threat will spread into
the Sandhills and coastal plain where coverage may be enhanced due
to timing and slightly better low level moisture. Current CAM
solutions are a little too robust considering current coverage
across the lower Great Lakes/mid-MS Valley. Capped PoP at 30 percent
east of highway 1 Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday evening.

Variably cloudy skies and patchy showers will yield temperatures
several degrees below normal for late June. High temps Tuesday upper
70s NW to the low-mid 80s southeast.

The system will exit our eastern periphery early Tuesday evening
with rain chances decreasing shortly after sunset. Subsidence in the
wake of the system will lead to decreasing cloudiness with mostly
clear skies anticipated after midnight. Where showers do occur
Tuesday, residual moisture left in their wake under clearing skies
may lead to the formation of patchy fog. Min temps generally 55-60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

A mid level trough will continue moving east on Wednesday with a
general west-to-east flow Thursday into early next week.  At the
surface, high pressure will crest over the region Wednesday, then
settle offshore into early next week. Return flow around the high
will yield gradually increasing temperatures and humidity levels.
Scattered afternoon and evening convection will develop Saturday
through Monday as instability and low level moisture reach
sufficient levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 155 AM Tuesday...

The approach of a mid-upper level disturbance and associated surface
cold front will result in patchy mid-high level cloudiness today.
Moisture will be in short supply, and while we may see a few
showers, coverage is expected to be too low to include in the TAFS.
Winds will shift to northerly at 6-8 knots this morning as the
surface front moves southeast across central NC, reaching the
coastal plain around mid day.

High pressure will settle in behind the exiting disturbance tonight
and linger through Thursday. As this high exits offshore Friday, the
return southerly flow will advect a moist unstable air mass into our
region, setting the stage for scattered afternoon-evening
convection, and early morning low clouds and fog. Thus, the
potential for periods of MVFR/IFR parameters will increase,
beginning Friday morning and continuing into the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS/Franklin
AVIATION...mlm/CBL



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