Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 251911
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
211 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. AS THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT...THESE CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE
WITH CALM WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS...PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S (TYPICAL RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS) TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED TRANQUIL AND FAIRLY MILD WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES (COMPARED TO TODAY)
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH THE HIGH
STARTING TO SLIP OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT:  HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER COASTAL NC
AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
MIDWEST MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INCREASES. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE FAIR-WEATHER WITH TEMPS STILL 10+
DEG ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WHILE WAVES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEG COOLER GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT LITTLE CHANGE FOR NIGHT-TIME LOWS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY
DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY DRIFTS TO
OUR SOUTH AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS THE COOL NE LOW LEVEL
FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY COOL DURING
THIS TIME AS THE SFC BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH...ALLOWING THE COOLER
AIRMASS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

MIDWEEK AND BEYOND: A BRIEF BREAK IN THE DAMP WEATHER MAY COME ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.  THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS ENERGY EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES...AND MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...APPROACH THE CAROLINAS
FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. CURRENT
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT WILL SUBSIDE SOME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE
BECOMING CALM AFTER SUNSET AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. THEN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. -KRD

LOOKING AHEAD: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE (THOUGH
STILL EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA) FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT


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