Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 292008
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in a relatively
narrow corridor in the right entrance region of jet streak over
eastern KS/western MO. Haven`t seen anything severe, but some
gusty winds may occur with stronger storms during the high point
of diurnal heating through early evening.

It may be a relatively quiet evening, however, some
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment is expected late tonight as a
weak sfc trough moves into the nw cwfa by 12z Saturday. This
boundary is expected to lose it`s identity/wash out with time
Sat/Sat night but still may help serve as a focus for scattered
convection Saturday afternoon and evening with the axis of a weak
upper level trough passing overhead. Went close to a mos blended
guidance for temperatures, but cloud cover will make high
temperatures a somewhat tough forecast for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

No big changes to the forecast. The upper level subtropical ridge
will be suppressed to the south early next week as the belt of
mid level westerlies takes a dip to the south. Sunday should be
relatively quiet with modest shortwave ridge moving through the
area. Some brief diurnally driven convection may occur over the
far southern and eastern cwfa, but most areas are expected to
remain dry.

Better chances for rain will occur Monday into Tuesday with a
more sharply defined front that is expected to move south into
the area. It looks like better vertical shear will be in place for
storm organization during this time, particularly late Monday into
Tuesday, but forecasting overall MCS potential timing/placement is
difficult at best this far out.

Medium range guidance is a bit of a mixed bag. The ECMWF
reestablished the subtropical ridge into Mid MS Vly region/Ozarks
by early Thursday. The GFS lags that timing just a bit, but has
the same basic idea. Some lingering of precip may occur Wednesday
along the old frontal boundary, but precip chances should then
begin to wane by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and slowly spread east across
the region this afternoon. The majority of this activity this
afternoon will occur east of the KJLN TAF site. Winds will be out
of the south to southwest at around 10kt.

The scattered convection is expected to spread east of the area
this evening with the area remaining mainly dry. Then as an upper
level disturbance spreads into the region additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Wise






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