Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 290507 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1207 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

/06Z TAFS/

With the 06Z TAF package, have included low-level wind shear
groups given the continuation of fairly weak surface winds and
the development of the low-level jet. Scattered elevated
convection has developed in some of our far eastern counties.
Could have additional widely scattered development of showers and
thunderstorms overnight, but still have placement uncertainty.
Carrying VCTS groups at KABI and KBBD, and depending on radar
trends, TAF updates may needed for TSRA. Low cloud cover is
expanding across much of west central Texas and is mostly in the
MVFR category. Expect a lowering of ceilings into the 1000-1500
ft range overnight, with temporary IFR conditions at KJCT. Some
visibility reductions are also possible with haze and light fog.
Southeast winds will veer to south overnight.

During the day Friday, a weak Pacific front/dryline will advance
east across west central Texas, and south-southwest winds will
veer to the west with its passage. Carrying VCTS at KABI and KBBD
in the morning prior to arrival of the Pacific front/dryline, and
at KJCT until 19Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

/00Z TAFS/

Currently clear skies across much of west central Texas, with a
VFR-based cumulus field overspreading the southeastern part of
our area. Low-level moisture surge will result in rapid low
cloud development/expansion northwest across our southern and
central counties between 02Z and 05Z. The low cloud field will
persist overnight, with ceilings mostly in the 1000-1500 ft
range at the TAF sites. Cannot rule out the possibility of IFR
ceilings at times at our southern TAF sites. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop after Midnight, and
to continue into early Friday morning. Carrying VCTS at KABI
08Z-15Z. Gusty southeast winds this evening will veer to the
south overnight.

During the day Friday, a weak Pacific front/dryline will advance
east across west central Texas, and south-southwest winds will
veer to the west with its passage. Carrying VCTS at KABI, KBBD
and KJCT in the morning prior to arrival of the Pacific

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Synoptically, an upper level low is centered over the four
corners area this afternoon with a Pacific front bisecting New
Mexico as it moves to the east. Closer to our CWA, a lee-side low
is over the west-central Panhandle with a warm front running east
from the surface low to just north of DFW. A dryline from the
surface low runs south through the Permian Basin to the eastern
Big Bend region. The GFS is breaking out convective activity along
the dryline early this evening while the NAM is holding off until
later in the evening. In any event, convective coverage over the
forecast area should increase through the overnight hours. The
Pacific front moving into our area from the west will catch the
dryline tomorrow morning with both boundaries moving west to east
across the forecast area through the day tomorrow. By noon
tomorrow precipitation should have ended over the western half of
the CWA with convective activity limited to our eastern tier of
counties by late tomorrow afternoon. A few strong storms will be
possible overnight and into tomorrow, with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary hazards. Significant rainfall totals over
the next 24 hours are not expected. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s and highs tomorrow will be in the mid 80s.


(Friday night through next Thursday)

Friday night, a line of showers and thunderstorms should be
exiting the area. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather
associated with this line, with the main hazards being large hail
and damaging winds, but most of the activity is expected to be
east of our area. Will keep a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms generally east of a Brownwood to Junction line for
these storms as they move out of the area, likely before midnight.

Saturday and Sunday, we can expect generally dry conditions. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday, but models are having
a hard time agreeing on the southern progress of the model during
the day on Saturday. With it getting into the warmer part of the
year, will hedge forecast toward a slower solution, and thus
warmer temperatures for the southern half of the CWA Saturday.
Surface high pressure will strengthen Saturday night across the
northern and central plains. This will help push the cold front
through the area completely Saturday night, resulting in cooler
temperatures Sunday, with highs possibly as cool as the upper 60s
for locations north of I-20.

Once the surface high moves into the area Sunday, it is expected
to remain in place through the early part of next week, keeping
cool temperatures going through at least Monday. A weakening
mid/upper level shortwave trough will move out across the
southern plains area Monday, resulting in a chance for showers
and thunderstorms from Sunday evening through Monday as southwest
flow is lifted up and over the top of the relatively cold air at
the surface. Although a few thunderstorms will be probable, severe
weather does not appear to be a concern at this time.

The surface high will begin weakening Tuesday, and upper level
riding will approach from the west, resulting in a warming trend
through the middle of the week.



Abilene  66  83  55  81 /  40  30  10   5
San Angelo  68  87  55  90 /  30  20  10   5
Junction  69  86  55  89 /  20  30  20  10


.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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