Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 042352
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
552 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013
See aviation discussion below.
The next 24 hours will see a massive change. A strong cold front
will push through the area overnight. Winds have already changed at
Abilene, with rest of the terminals seeing the wind shift by sunrise
tomorrow. The cold air is expected to be shallow, so MVFR ceilings
are expected following the front. Abilene will see a mix of freezing
rain and sleet around noon, but the exact timing is dependent on the
temperature. Other terminals could see some light rain with
temperatures above freezing during the afternoon, but that is too
uncertain to mention at this time.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013/
(Tonight through Friday)
A winter storm still appears likely for West Central Texas, along
with much colder conditions. Winter storm warnings have been issued
for the area north of a Sweetwater to Ballinger to Brownwood line,
including the I-20 corridor and Abilene. A Winter Weather Advisory
is in effect for the rest of the area, including San Angelo, Brady,
and the Interstate 10 corridor.
Models have remained virtually unchanged in the last 24 hours
concerning the timing and extent of the winter weather upcoming for
The first cold front has made it as far south as Abilene, although
the cold air is lagging the front. Haskell is sitting in the mid 50s
with a north wind, with temperatures near 30 holding across western
Oklahoma. This coldest air will catch up with the frontal boundary
itself tonight, and the entire boundary will surge southward. For
late tonight and for much of the day Thursday, temperatures across
all of West Central Texas will fall quickly. San Angelo may be as
much as 50 degrees colder at this time tomorrow.
The freezing line reaches Abilene by mid morning, the San Angelo and
Brownwood areas by late afternoon, and the I-10 area by midnight.
Guidance numbers have continued to drop overnight lows into the
teens and 20s by Friday morning, and see little reason to deviate
from them a whole lot.
Deep upper level trough settling into the western US, with a strong
140kt jet streak set to move across the plains Thursday Night. First
impulse rounds the base and starts to produce some light wintry
precipitation across the Sweetwater and Abilene areas by Thursday
morning, but part of this will go into saturating the lower levels
of the very cold air mass. Thus, light freezing rain to start with.
Second stronger wave starts to move into the area Thursday afternoon
and produce widespread precipitation. Most of this will fall as some
sort of ice across all of the area. Soundings still showing a
significant warm nose, so getting any snow will be tough. Sleet and
freezing rain look likely, with the amount of sleet decreasing as
you move south as the cold air becomes more shallow and its
potential to refreeze before hitting the ground diminishes.
System pushes east of the area by noon Friday, and the threat of
widespread wintry accumulating precipitation ends.
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Unseasonably cold temperatures associated with an arctic airmass
will settle in over all of West Central Texas Friday night with
Saturday morning lows ranging from the single digits north of
Interstate 20 to the lower 20s in the Interstate 10 corridor. Wind
chill temperatures over the Big Country Saturday morning are
expected to be as low as 4 degrees below zero. Both the GFS and the
ECMWF bring a weak upper level short wave across the southern plains
on Saturday with a slight chance of additional wintry precipitation
over primarily the northern and eastern portions of the CWA Saturday
and Saturday night. This round of wintry precipitation will be brief
with dry conditions setting in Sunday and continuing through at
least the middle of next week.
Highs Saturday will stay below freezing over all but the Interstate
10 corridor which will only warm into the mid 30s. Northerly surface
winds on Saturday will briefly swing to the south on Sunday with
afternoon highs warming into the 40s over the southern half of West
Central Texas. As for the area along and north of interstate 20,
afternoon temperatures will struggle to warm above freezing given
the anticipated presence of ground laden frozen precipitation.
Another blast of frigid air will surge through the forecast area
Monday night as another cold front pushes through the area. Tuesday
morning lows will drop to the mid to upper teens over most of the
the forecast area with Wednesday morning lows in the lower to mid
20s. Surface winds Will swing back to the south on Wednesday with
afternoon highs on Wednesday warming into the mid 40s under mostly
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 27 31 20 25 11 / 30 60 80 30 10
San Angelo 41 42 24 31 19 / 20 50 70 20 10
Junction 48 52 26 33 25 / 20 40 70 30 10
WINTER STORM WARNING from Noon Thursday to Noon CST Friday FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...
WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM Thursday to Noon CST Friday FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Coleman...Runnels.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM Thursday to Noon CST Friday
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coke...Concho...Crockett...Irion...