Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 271720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1120 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

/18Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions across West Central Texas this
afternoon and early evening. Low level moisture along with
widespread stratus will return north across much of the area late
tonight and Tuesday morning. Going with MVFR/IFR conditions at the
terminals after 06Z-10Z due to low ceilings and patchy dense fog,
especially at the KSOA terminal. However, keeping the KABI
terminal VFR for now.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 519 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

/12Z TAFS/

KABI will be VFR through the 24 hour period. The western terminals
KSJT and KSOA will be LIFR/IFR lifting to MVFR around sunrise and
VFR around noon. KJCT will be MVFR through the morning hours
before lifting to VFR. High clouds will continue to stream across
the area through the day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

(Today and Tonight)

An upper trough now over the Pacific Northwest will swing
southeastward over the Central Rockies through tonight with the
nearly zonal flow aloft over the forecast area backing to the
southwest. Skies will clear from west to east over the area this
morning as the 850mb thermal ridge builds over the area from the
southwest. There remains a slight chance of showers and a
thunderstorm or two over eastern Brown and San Saba counties today
as the area of best moisture slowly eases eastward out of our
area. As surface winds veer to the southwest and skies clear,
afternoon temperatures will be boosted into the lower 80s, around
15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. For tonight,
morning lows will be in the 50s, around 10 degrees warmer than


(Tuesday through next Sunday)

On Tuesday, the next upper level trough will be approaching the
area from the west. During the morning hours, we may see some low
clouds across areas south of I-20. However, this moisture will be
very shallow, and will quickly mix out as gusty west to southwest
winds pick up during the morning hours. The dry air is expected
to be near the eastern border of our CWA by mid to late afternoon.
This should keep better rain chances east of our area Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Very warm temperatures Tuesday--near
record at San Angelo--are still expected, getting into the mid to
upper 80s. Overnight, a cold front will move quickly south, and
may result in a few showers or thunderstorms south and east of a
Brownwood to Junction line.

Cooler and dry weather will move in behind the cold front for
Wednesday through the end of the work week. Highs will actually be
near average in the mid to upper 60s for the most part.

With models struggling resolving the next upper low over the
weekend, there is low confidence in definitive rain chances
Saturday into Sunday. Low level moisture will increase rapidly
Saturday ahead of the low, and we may see a few light showers
from isentropic lift, but organized upper level support at this
time is minimal with the main low off the western Mexico coast at
that time. High temperatures are expected to warm back up to
near 70 Saturday, and mid to upper 70s by Sunday, with lows near


Fire weather concerns will increase today over the western
sections of the Big Country and Concho valley as minimum relative
humidities drop to less than 20 percent and 20 foot southwest
winds increase to 10 to 15 mph. Fire Weather will be elevated on
Tuesday with minimum relative humidities remaining less than 20
percent along and west of a line from Throckmorton to Sonora and
20 foot winds at 15 to 20 mph. Fire Weather concerns will remain
elevated Wednesday and Thursday over most of West Central Texas as
minimum relative humdities remain less than 20 percent.



Abilene  80  55  82  44 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  84  54  87  46 /   0   0   5   5
Junction  82  57  85  49 /  10   5   5  10
Brownwood  81  55  84  46 /  10  10  10   5
Sweetwater  80  54  82  43 /   0   0   0   5
Ozona       80  52  84  46 /   0   0   0   5




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