Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 261745
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1245 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...

Current visible satellite imagery showing skies clearing quickly
across West Central Texas. The latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates
atmosphere is beginning to destabilize, with MLCAPES in the 2500
to 3000 J/KG across the northern half of the area. A dryline was
located from near a Childress to Big Spring to Sanderson line with
low level convergence increasing. Looks like scattered storms will
fire by mid afternoon near the dryline or along a Sweetwater to
Ozona line. The storms will move east across much of West Central
Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. Some storms
will probably become severe due to extreme instability and
moderate 0-6KM shear. The main hazards will be very large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Updated zone and grids to
reduce Pops to mainly chance category for this afternoon.

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through the
evening hours. MVFR ceilings will develop mainly after 09Z Friday
at most of the terminals, however keeping VFR at KABI for now.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along a dryline west of the
terminals by mid afternoon and move east across the area through
this evening. The storms will increase in coverage and have VCTS
at the terminals with TEMPO groups late this afternoon and
tonight. Some storms may be severe. The winds will be from the south
with gusts near 25 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions continue across West Central Texas, in the wake of
last nights convection. Still a few showers around, with a few
approaching the KABI terminal location. these shouldn`t persist
through about mid morning before dissipating. More storms are
expected to develop by late afternoon and become more widespread
during the evening hours. Hard to pin down the exact timing, so
have used a VCTS for much of the time period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

West Central Texas is in an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms
today and tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado are possible this afternoon and tonight. Localized
flooding is also possible tonight.

The upper low over Southern California will move northeast into
Colorado tonight. This will bring large scale lift and upper short
waves to West Central Texas. The atmosphere is very unstable in
West Central Texas, with MUCAPES of 3000 to 4000 J/G. Strong 0-6KM
Bulk shears of 45 to 50 KTS will also be present. Storms are
expected to develop over Crockett County, Concho Valley, and
Western Big Country mid afternoon 2-3 PM, then move eastward.
The severe threat will continue into the evening, with the main
threat transitioning to localized flooding overnight.

LONG TERM...
(Friday into Wednesday)

Storms will be ongoing Friday morning in eastern sections...along
east of Haskell...Abilene...San Angelo...Sonora line. By
afternoon, storms should be east of a Baird to Junction line as a
dryline moves through. There will remain the potential for a
severe thunderstorms, but coverage will be more isolated.

There is respite in shower and thunderstorm potential Friday
night and Saturday morning, with rain chances returning Saturday
afternoon as another upper trough develops over the Southwestern
United States. The upper trough/low becomes more or less
stationary over Arizona and New Mexico, sending weak disturbances
over West Central Texas into the middle of next week. The
atmosphere will remain unstable over West Central Texas, so the
potential for severe weather will continue each day, beginning
Sunday. Clouds and storms will keep highs next week in the mid and
upper 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  68  86  63 /  40  60  30   5
San Angelo  88  69  91  64 /  40  70  20   5
Junction  86  69  89  67 /  50  70  40  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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