Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 252359 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
659 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
this evening into tonight, and again on Tuesday. Carrying VCSH
groups at KJCT and KBBD initially this evening. As the convection
continues to develop slowly to the west, incorporating KSJT and
KSOA in VCSH groups on Tuesday. Adjustments to weather type and
timing will be made based on radar trends. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible with the showers and storms. Localized strong gusty
winds may accompany a few of the storms this evening and again
Tuesday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but
brief reductions in ceiling and visibility are possible if
convective activity occurs at a TAF site with heavy rain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tuesday)

A westward moving upper disturbance centered off the upper Texas
Gulf Coast this afternoon is pushing abundant low and mid-level
moisture over southeast and east Texas. The chance for showers and
isolated thunderstorms will increase over our southeastern counties,
then over the remainder of the CWA, through tonight. Gulf moisture
will continue to flow over the forecast area during the day tomorrow
with the best chance of precipitation over the southern half of the
area. Copious cloud cover and increased rainfall chances will keep
afternoon highs tomorrow in the lower 90s over the southern half of
the CWA and in the mid 90s over the Big Country.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Scattered, mainly daytime showers and thunderstorms are expected
Tuesday night into Thursday on the eastern side of an upper ridge
centered over the 4-corners region. A few locations could see
locally heavy rainfall as precipital waters will be in the 1.5 to
2 inch range. Storms will become more isolated Friday as the upper
ridge begins to expand eastward along with increasing subsidence.
Left Saturday into Monday without mention of rainfall, although
one or two isolated showers could still be possible. Highs will be
in the lower mid 90s into Friday, with mid to upper 90s over the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  30
San Angelo  75  93  73  94 /  20  40  20  30
Junction  75  93  73  92 /  30  60  20  40

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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