Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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840
FXUS65 KVEF 300339
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
840 PM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM SET TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL UNTIL
A WARMING TREND COMMENCES NEXT WEEK AS THINGS DRY OUT. ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING A COOLING
TREND AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE.

&&

.UPDATE...COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES EVIDENT
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING ARE SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVING IN. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THIS ENERGY NOW APPROACHING RENO WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT TO SEE
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN PERHAPS EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN CLARK
COUNTY AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE IN EASTERN INYO COUNTY AND STRONG
LIFT MOVING IN WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR. BOOSTED POPS UPWARDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND INCREASED THEM
FOR THE I-15 CORRIDOR FROM BARSTOW TO MESQUITE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ABOVE 7500 FEET IS ALSO LIKELY BY SUNRISE ACROSS
THE SPRING AND SHEEP RANGE.

-OUTLER-

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WEST OR SOUTHWEST WIND AT OR BELOW 10 KTS
THE REST OF THIS EVENING ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON SOUTHERN NEVADA. IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND THE VALLEY AS SOON AS MIDNIGHT WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 09Z THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN LOWERING CIGS WITH MINIMUM CIGS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 4KFT TO 5KFT WITH CIGS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 10KFT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT ICING AROUND 10KFT WITH
TURBULENCE CONCERNS ESPECIALLY AROUND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY...AND MAY WOBBLE
BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG WEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
/KDAG/ TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS KICKING UP ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY BEFORE BOTH AREAS TURN MORE NORTHERLY. KDAG WILL LIKELY
TURN BY MID MORNING...WITH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION
FROM NORTH OVERNIGHT TO SOUTH BY LATE MORNING...AND LINGER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10KFT TO POSSIBLY AS LOW
AS 4KFT OR SO AROUND SHOWERS. PLENTY OF SUPERCOOLED WATER EXPECTED
TO CREATE ICING CONCERNS AROUND 10KFT WITH HIGHER ALTITUDES AROUND
SHOWERS. &&

-BKP-

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON PRETTY MUCH WHERE
EXPECTED...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAS VEGAS AND OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL MOVE IN
QUICKLY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND ALREADY CENTERED SOUTH
OF HAVASU BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN DEPICTING. SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD TO A BIT SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS BY LATE
TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SATURDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LINCOLN...CLARK
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS FROM THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE
REMAINING A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOWFALL ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW AT
THE MT. CHARLESTON FIRE STATION.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN SOME AREAS AS THE LOW MOVES IN. THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WILL INITIALLY GET
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY
ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOLID WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THESE AREAS AND SOME HI-RES
OUTPUT ALSO SUPPORTS WINDS THAT STRONG. SO...I ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS AND TIMES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME DECREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
SUNDAY AND WITH SOME DAY TIME HEATING MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY. OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LOW AND SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN A LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM EXITS...MONDAY WILL SEE SUFFICIENT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN MOVES OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY SPINS UP INTO A
BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE RIDGE IS
ACTUALLY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES ALL
THE WAY UP THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEFORE HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN INYO COUNTY
THURSDAY THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO ZONES WEST AND
NORTH OF LAS VEGAS BY FRIDAY WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.  SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HARRISON
AVIATION...STEELE
LONG TERM...ADAIR

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