Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 302149
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY. &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE WANDERING BETWEEN UTAH AND
NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FOR LATE JUNE ALONG WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE BASIC PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH THROUGH FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
WAVES TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR. THE FIRST LOOKS LIKE IT MOVES WEST
ACROSS THE MEXICO/ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA BORDER AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. A SECOND WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSE BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS WHICH MAY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING/TRACK/IMPACTS OF THESE FEATURES IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE THE HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY INDEPENDENCE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
FASTER PATTERN SHIFT THAN WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO AND IT WOULD
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANY MOISTURE TO MOVE UP FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO.
THERE IS NOT MUCH INDICATION YET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND I
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
ARES AND NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE MOJAVE DESERT FOR
NOW. THE GFS SOLUTION INDICATES SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOME DRIER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A BROAD
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THE GFS INDICATES THIS
DRYING TREND MORE THAN THE ECMWF AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING
OF THESE SUBTLE CHANGES. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THIS PATTERN BUT WILL
REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 105 FOR LAS VEGAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. TYPICAL
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AROUND 00Z OR 01Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY OVER MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-
10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. &&

.CLIMATE...THE JUNE RECORD OF 18 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105
DEGREES OR GREATER WAS TIED TODAY FOR MCCARRAN AIRPORT. IN
ADDITION...THE ALL-TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A
HIGH OF 105 DEGREES OR GREATER IS ALSO IN JEOPARDY IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS RECORD STANDS AT 21 DAYS AND HAS BEEN SET FOR
TIMES...MOST RECENTLY IN 2000. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM.............ADAIR
CLIMATE...............STACHELSKI



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