Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 180453
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
853 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN OVER
THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...NOT A VERY WET STORM FOR OUR AREA, HOWEVER, THIS IS ONE OF
THE RARE MONTHS IN THE LAST FEW YEARS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND SO WE`LL TAKE WHATEVER WE CAN GET. MOST AREAS SAW
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT AND THE
REALITY WAS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST SPOTS. THE
EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED A SMALL MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 825 AND 725 MB
WHICH STILL SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERALL THE POP GRIDS LOOKED
OK, HOWEVER, THERE IS A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA LATER TONIGHT THAT MAY SET
OFF SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN CWFA. BOTH THE
WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS INYO, ESMERALDA AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES
AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED IN THESE AREAS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE AND I WILL LEAVE IT BE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CEILINGS WILL HOVER AROUND 6 KFT BEFORE
PARTIALLY CLEARING AND LIFTING TO AROUND 10 KFT THURSDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CIGS OF 3K-6K FT AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM GRADUALLY
MOVES TO THE EAST.
&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 250 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE APPARENT FROM
SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AND THESE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT
RADAR LOOPS SHOWED A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CLARK AND CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL DIG A
LITTLE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION DIVES TOWARD
NORTHERN BAJA. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES...SO
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO INDICATING MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
NEVADA NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID, LEFT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHERN INYO COUNTY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
SOUTH OF HOOVER DAM SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PIERCE

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