Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 230400 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
900 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH NRN CA/WRN NV DISSIPATING AS
THEY ENCOUNTER RIDGING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY BREEZES UP THE OWENS
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BY THURSDAY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE, LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN
SOUTHERLY BREEZES ON THURSDAY. PRECEDING THE TROUGH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
238 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND. CUMULUS CLOUDS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY
LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS AND WE LOSE SURFACE HEATING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST TO
PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND. THE UNCERTAINTY RESIDES
WITH THE TIMING AND JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS TROUGH WILL PULL
NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND MORE MOIST
SOLUTION WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WE COULD SEE SOME PRECIP AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE SATURDAY /EITHER
EARLY OR LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE/. AT
LEAST EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS
WEEKEND...WITH HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA HAVING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND CLEAR ANY PRECIP OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START THEIR COOLING TREND FRIDAY AND WE WILL SEE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD
AND COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPS WILL DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BE A NICE
INTRODUCTION TO FALL. THIS COOLER AIR WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND CYCLE THROUGH
TUESDAY FAVORING EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AT NIGHT. WINDS SPEED APPROACHING 10 KTS AT TIMES. CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR THROUGH MID-WEEK UNDER A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...PADDOCK

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