Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 261012
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
312 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HELPED TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM HAS PUSHED AS
FAR WEST AS BAKER AND THE PAHRUMP/AMARGOSA VALLEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARIZONA WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.

STRONG RIDGE PROGGED TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR THE COMING DAYS WHICH WILL FAVOR A MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
FLOW INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT DEPICTING BEST INSTABILITY EAST OF A BARSTOW-PAHRUMP TO
RACHEL LINE TODAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE INSTABILITY SPREADS
FURTHER WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW FORCES MOISTURE FURTHER WEST.
WITH THAT SAID THICK CLOUD COVER FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONVECTION
COULD HINDER OUR CHANCES ONE DAY, JUST DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH DAY
AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF
NORMAL...WITH POINT TEMPS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHIFTING THE BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO MEXICO.
DESPITE THE OVERALL DRYING TREND, ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN MOHAVE COUNTY.  ON
FRIDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON A POSSIBLE FEATURE ROTATING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH MAY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS STILL ARE FAR FROM CLEAR BUT JUSTIFY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE GOING SOUTHEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTH WIND SHOULD RETURN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF A STORM AT THE
TERMINAL...WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE MORMON MESA...PEACH
SPRINGS...AND DAGGETT CORRIDORS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM BARSTOW-PAHRUMP-RACHEL. THE CHANCES SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS ALONG WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

PIERCE/OUTLER

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

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