Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 042109
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
210 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY INTO
SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH AND WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. AREAS MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. OUR REGION
WAS BE UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL SHIFT TO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
LEADING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RESULT WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW FAST AND HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE
SPREADS AND FOR NOW I WENT WITH BASICALLY A COMPROMISE. SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MAY BE
INTERESTING AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST WHILE
AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL START TO BRING A DRY PUNCH IN PRETTY QUICKLY BUT THE
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WHERE THE MOISTURE REACHES. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT I WENT WITH AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF MOHAVE COUNTY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER JUST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CLARK...INYO...NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SOME MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGESTS MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND FRIDAY...DRY AIR WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NORTH AND JUST EAST OF LAS VEGAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MOHAVE COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA.

.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT A
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WHICH BRINGS MOISTURE UP
INTO MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY. I INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY...MENTIONING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF
THE COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS AT TIMES PRIOR TO SUNSET THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS IN MANY
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL NIGHT TIME DRAINAGE PATTERN LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS
MAINLY INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

HARRISON
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

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