Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 232138
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
238 PM PDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The heat wave will remain over the region through the
weekend and into early next week. The Excessive Heat Warning is in
effect through Monday evening. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible over the southern Sierra each day while dry conditions
persist elsewhere.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

Little change was made to the short term forecast this afternoon.
The main concern remains this extended period of hot weather that
continues to impact the region. Temperatures will decrease ever so
slowly this weekend (about a degree each day). Winds will remain
relatively light with just a few afternoon/evening gusts of 15-20
mph in favored locations.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

By Monday, the ridge over the southwest should begin to shift
southwest and become suppressed a bit as a shortwave moves across
the northern Great Basin Monday night. Temperatures will see a 3-5
degrees drop by Tue and begin approaching normal temps later in the
week. Breezy to gusty southwest winds will accompany the trough
passage Monday afternoon and continue through the much of the
evening. Wind speeds are expected to be 15 to 25 mph with gusts up
to 35 mph. At this point, winds seem to be marginal for advisory
criteria for western San Bernardino Co and along the Spring Mtns,
but will monitor as we approach the work week. Both the ECMWF and
GFS keep the ridge suppressed through much of Thurs now, while
timing discrepancies still exist with the CMC. With more weight on
the GFS/ECMWF, southwest winds should continue to be breezy Tue
through Thu afternoons with speeds 10-20 mph. Dry and mostly clear
conditions through the work week.

Something to note..the latest ECE MOS guidance has LAS dropping 4
degrees Mon than previous runs...though better preforming model
temperature blends still indicate LAS should be around 110 degrees
Mon. Thus, supporting the Excessive Heat Warning to remain in effect
through Mon.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions are expected for the next
several days. Southwest winds will increase Monday afternoon...with
extensive areas possibly gusting over 35 mph. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible over the southern Sierra each afternoon into the
weekend.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...Creek, stream and rivers along the eastern Sierra
slopes of Inyo County as well as the Owens Valley will be flowing
high and fast this week. Specifically, Rock Creek, Big Pine Creek
and Independence Creek have seen a significant rise in flows since
Saturday. Minor flooding could occur near creeks as well as a few
low water crossings on some roadways. Remember, never driver through
flooded roadways or around barricades. Also, pastureland or farmland
adjacent to creeks, streams or rivers could experience areas of
standing water.
&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record to record high temperatures will be possible each day
through Friday. The current record of consecutive days above 110
degrees in Las Vegas is 10 days (1961), and for 115 degrees, 4 days
(2005).

Las Vegas, NV Climate

           Forecast High Temps (F)       Daily Record Max Temps (F)
FRI (6/23):  111   113 (1959)
SAT (6/24):  111   113 (1961)
SUN (6/25):  112   115 (1970)

          Forecast low Temps (F)       Daily Record High Min Temps (F)
FRI (6/23):   89    86 (2011)
SAT (6/24):  88    85 (2016)
SUN (6/25):  88                           86 (1974)
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light and variable conditions will
prevail through the early evening. Winds will veer southwest towards
drainage around sunset, with speeds increasing to 10-12 kts.
Lighter, variable winds develop overnight and a diurnal wind regime
expected Saturday. Hot temperatures will continue through Monday
with afternoon highs at or above 110 degrees. A few high clouds
through the period however VFR conditions persist.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...This evening: West/southwest wind at 5-15 kts expected
for sites south of I-15 with a northwest/northeast wind, with
similar speeds, expected for areas north of I-15. Overnight
conditions will be light and variable with the exception of
southeast Lincoln County and Barstow/Daggett area, where wind will
be 10-20 kts. Conditions will be light and variable through Saturday
morning and afternoon. Hot temperatures will continue across the
Mojave Desert areas through the weekend with afternoon highs at or
above 110 degrees. Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions expected.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolcott
LONG TERM....Kryston
AVIATION.....Boothe

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