Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 262147
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 PM PDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms exists
primarily over the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin and
Mojave Desert for the Memorial Day weekend. Elsewhere temperatures
will remain a few degrees below normal under mostly sunny skies.
Above normal temperatures will develop by the middle of next week
with the first bout of widespread triple digits across the Mojave
Desert.
&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Thursday

There was one single thunderstorm that went up early over the Sheep
Range north of Las Vegas since then cumulus have flattened with most
of the CAPE used up. Radar as of 2pm showed a few light showers or
sprinkles west of Mount Potosi and near Searchlight. Most expansive
coverage of precipitation today has been over southwest Utah. Some
of the showers/thunderstorms starting to move south into northern
Mohave County. Based on the latest HRRR output don`t foresee much
shower activity making it into the early evening so reduced POP
across southern Nevada and eastern California. HRRR supports the
showers/thunderstorms persisting across northern Mohave County and
southwest Utah before dissipating between 9 and 11 pm.

Temperatures aloft progged to warm another degree or two Celsius
Friday which should stunt convective potential further. Did leave a
mention in for the Sierra Nevada, higher elevations of southern
Nevada and northern Mohave County.

On Saturday and Sunday, model all in good agreement showing another
weak upper low developing over central California late Saturday
afternoon and slowly shifting southeast across the Mojave Desert
into southwest Arizona by late Memorial Day afternoon. This upper
low progged to not be as deep as the one yesterday. However, the
slight cooling aloft will lead to generate more instability over the
Sierra Nevada Saturday afternoon then across the entire southern
Great Basin and Mojave Desert Sunday afternoon and evening. Did go
ahead and expand POPs on Sunday across the higher terrain of San
Bernardino County.

Slightly below to near normal temperatures for the holiday weekend
with only some pockets of afternoon and evening breezes peaking out
at 20-25 mph.

For Tuesday-Thursday main message is the onset of widespread triple
digits temperatures for the Mojave Desert. Since it have been
relatively cool recently this will come on fast and folks should
take it easy at first until they become acclimated.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...No significant weather expected with VFR
conditions and light winds following typical diurnal trends. Another
very small chance of showers on the mountains tomorrow will likely
stay clear of the terminal.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...No significant weather expected with light winds
following typical diurnal trends for most terminals through the
period. Shower chances will be limited to the higher terrain of the
southern Great Basin and Sierra Nevada with perhaps another chance
of breezy north winds at KBIH and breezy west winds at KDAG during
the afternoon tomorrow.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Discussion...Pierce
Aviation...Steele

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