Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 280331
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
831 PM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
evening as a low pressure system starts to exit the area to the
east. Gusty north winds will overspread the region tonight. Dry
conditions with gusty north winds are expected Tuesday. High
pressure will bring dry conditions and lighter winds Wednesday.
Another storm system will bring gusty winds and some precipitation
chances to the area Thursday and Friday.
&&

.UPDATE...Winds are still hitting advisory criteria in several zones
so no changes planned there. Watching western San Bernardino county
to see if the 11 PM expiration time will work out. All else seems to
be on track so no update planned at this time.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
237 PM PDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night.

Energetic upper trough continues to move east/southeast across the
forecast area this afternoon with some showers and thunderstorms
generally from Las Vegas northward and eastward. Winds have been
fairly strong at times but there have definitely been some
significant lulls as well. The upper low will move to near the four
corners region tonight which should help push strong northerly winds
across most of the forecast area and the wind advisories remain in
effect. Meanwhile precipitation chances will be decreasing and
should have ended by daybreak Tuesday, even over eastern portions of
Lincoln and Mohave Counties. Dry but breezy to windy conditions are
expected Tuesday as a northerly flow persists behind the exiting
upper low. A ridge of high pressure will briefly traverse the area
Tuesday night and Wednesday with dry conditions and lighter winds.
However, some locally gusty north winds may persist down the
Colorado River Valley.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday.

A windy spring weather pattern will persist through the long term
period. A continuous series of upper level lows will dive southeast
across the region. This will bring several rounds of windy weather
to the entire region along with areas of light precipitation to the
southern Great Basin.

The first of these systems in the long term period will push through
Thursday and Friday. At the moment, this system appears to be
slightly stronger than the one forecast to move through the region
today, both with the pre- and post-frontal winds. If the current
forecast holds, it may be necessary to issue a High Wind Watch in
the next couple days. The system will become rather moisture-starved
as it pushes into our neck of the woods, but some light
precipitation is possible across the southern Great Basin (mainly
Lincoln County) into northern Arizona.

As the system exits to the east on Saturday, elevated northerly
winds will continue down the Colorado River Valley. By Sunday,
models begin to diverge rapidly. It appears that the most likely
solution is calmer conditions under shortwave ridging in advance of
another system that could to move through next Monday/Tuesday.

Temperatures will generally bounce around within 10 degrees of
normal through the period.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Showers will diminish late this
afternoon over the Las Vegas Valley as a circulation moves from
southern Nevada over northwest Arizona. Strong north winds will
develop on the back side of this system with gusts 30-35 knots
expected overnight through early Tuesday morning followed by
gradually decreasing speeds Tuesday afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...A circulation moving from southern Nevada over
northwest Arizona will lead to widespread strong north winds gusting
30-40 knots overnight through Tuesday morning. Strong west winds
gusting over 40 Knots in the western Mojave Desert will become north
overnight. Speeds will decrease to between 15 and 25 knots Tuesday
afternoon except remain strong along the Colorado River Valley.
Showers will diminish over southeast Nevada and northwest Arizona
this afternoon but a few thunderstorms will be possible with cloud
bases generally 8-10 Kft MSL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Reports of wind damage or low
visibility due to dust are encouraged. Otherwise...Spotters are
encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to
standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Update...Morgan
Short Term...Harrison
Aviation...Adair
Long Term...Wolcott

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