Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 061053
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
553 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Short Term (Today through Sunday night):

Omega blocking pattern will continue over the CONUS today with a
closed upper low over the Southwestern states and another across the
Mid-Atlantic states. Between these two features, strong upper level
ridging will reside across the Plains. This upper level ridging
nosing into the area combined with a return to southwesterly flow at
the surface on the back side of a retreating surface high will allow
temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s today. Saturday, the
upper level pattern begins to break down as the upper low over the
Mid-Atlantic weakens. This will allow the upper ridge axis to move
over the area albeit less amplified. During the afternoon, a back
door cold front associated with an upper level trough moving through
the Great Lakes will slowly sink into the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along this front during the afternoon
across northern Missouri although forcing and moisture will be
limiting factors. Highs across northern Missouri where storms and
additional cloud cover will reside will keep highs in the upper 70s
however, further south, highs will again reach the low to mid 80s.
The front will stall across the CWA Saturday night. A noctural
southwesterly LLJ will increase to 40-50kts overriding the boundary
and allowing for ascent. Thunderstorms will develop across northern
Missouri and an isolated severe storm capable of producing large
hail could develop. Sunday the upper level trough that was over the
southwestern Conus will move out into the central High Plains.
Several lead shortwave will eject out ahead of the upper level
system providing for showers and thunderstorms during day Sunday.
Severe weather should remain west of the area on Sunday/Sunday night
where the better upper level forcing will reside.

Extended Term: (Monday through Thursday):

The extended period continues to look unsettled with several chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Monday, the upper level system moves
slowly into the central Plains with an attendant cold front across
the eastern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along this front Monday. Severe potential will hinge on
whether or not afternoon instability can be generated after morning
showers and storms. Tuesday, the upper level system weakens as it
moves into the Upper Midwest slowly dragging the surface front
across the CWA and continuing storm chances. Right now, the best
window for a brief respite to precipitation may come Tuesday night.
However, another upper level trough will quickly move into the
northern Plains on the heels of the departing trough. This will
force another slow moving front through the area on Wednesday with
yet another round of storms. The upper trough will move through the
Midwest Thursday continuing showers and thunderstorm chances into
Thursday. Temperatures will range between the upper 60s to mid 70s
through this period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR conds are expected thru the pd with clr skies. Winds will be out
of the S-SSW btn 5-10kts thru the pd.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73



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