Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 261730
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017
Issued at 316 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
The cutoff low which has been the prominent feature affecting the
local area over the last couple of days will finally be pushed
northeastward as an upper level trough advects overhead this
evening. Until this occurs, dry conditions are expected today and
temperatures will rebound slightly compared to Saturday as WAA
returns to the area. Temperatures will still be moderated to a
degree by persistent stratus and existing low level moisture.
Temps will range from the mid 50s across northern Missouri into
the lower 60s for areas south of I-70 today. As the upper level
trough approaches the region, a surface low will track well south
of the CWA overnight. This feature will lift a warm front north
into the southern half of the CWA beginning this evening, and will
provide modest isentropic ascent to fuel widespread rain showers.
Moisture availability will be favored for areas south of I-70
given the southward extent of the surface low, though still
anticipate precipitation to make it as far north as the Missouri
and Iowa border. Rain totals will approach just over the half inch
mark for areas south of I-70, with values near a quarter inch for
points north. The brevity of this system will limit the overall
precipitation totals and dry conditions will return by Monday
morning into the afternoon west to east.
Without a distinct replacement of the existing airmass throughout
the early to mid week, temperatures will more or less be moderated
to near seasonal values, also aided by persistent cloud cover.
Another mid to late week round of precip will return as a
stronger upper level system lifts northeast out of the
southwestern CONUS. This activity will likely present the best
chance for notable rainfall totals during the forecast period
across much of area. Have lowered late week high temperatures
over the far northern counties given increasing confidence in the
placement of a much colder airmass settling into the area. May
need to further reduce temperatures within this sector, in
addition to areas further south, during subsequent forecasts.
Still anticipating precip to remain in liquid form given a
substantially warm thermal profile. The unsettled pattern will
continue by the late weekend, thus rainfall deficits will be
alleviated throughout the upcoming week. Overall thunderstorm
chances will be limited, though areas across central Missouri may
see an isolated thunderstorm or two Monday morning to afternoon as
a weak instability axis develops within the warm sector.
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
MVFR cigs have affected the terminals thru the morning and model
guidance, soundings, and upstream obs suggests MVFR cigs will
persist thru the afternoon with some improvement this evening.
Tonight an upper level shortwave will push into the area bringing
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm into the terminals.
Kept thunder mention out of the terminals for now as the better
instability and forcing will be further south as the surface low
tracks across southern Missouri. Expect cigs and vsbys to drop
into IFR tonight with persistent lgt to Agnola mod rain. Rain
looks to move out of the terminals around 15Z-16Z tomorrow morning
with improving vsbys however IFR cigs should remain persistent
thru the end of the TAF pd. Winds will be generally light and Rb
until tonight when they will be out of the NE btn 5-10kts before
veering to the north morning.