Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KEAX 131110

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
610 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

Issued at 346 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

The quiet pattern will continue across the area for the next several
days as surface ridging settles into the area, bringing dry and
somewhat cooler air. Helping to keep the area under dry conditions
is the mid level trough, which is currently off to the
east/northeast of the forecast area, with NW H5 flow overhead and
fairly strong mid level subsidence. The combination of the mid level
subsidence and dry air through the entire atmospheric column should
keep conditions precip free through at least mid to late week. While
temperatures are generally pleasant across the area, and perhaps a
bit cooler than the previous few days high temperatures will reflect
values well above normal for the next few days. Highs will generally
be in the middle to upper 70s, with a few areas in the lower 80s
(mainly south of I-70). Average highs for this time of year are
generally in the middle to upper 60s. So, quite an anomalous
pattern, with forecast highs in the 7 to 12 degree above-normal
range. With respect to fire weather for Tuesday, good mixing and the
aforementioned warm/dry air mass will contribute to relative
humidity values dropping into the upper teens to mid 20 percent
range. Fire weather concerns are subdued by light northwest winds
around 10 to 15 mph, but considering how dry the air is, even the 10
to 15 mph winds should be enough to help spread fires if caution is
not exercised.

The next change to the pattern will likely come later this week,
however the change will be rather minimal, short of a precipitous
drop in temperatures for the late part of the week and into the
weekend. Another fairly stout surface ridge will nose into the area,
trailing a cold front. The frontal boundary will likely push through
the area sometime during the day on Thursday, which could bring some
cloudy conditions and maybe a spotty shower or two. With the cool air
mass in place, temperatures for Friday through Sunday will dip back
into the 60s. The surface ridge centers over the area sometime during
the weekend, most likely in the Friday night/Saturday morning time
frame, which should yield the coolest morning of the season so far as
good radiational cooling is anticipated under the clear skies. While
a widespread freeze isn`t looking likely at this time, with
anticipated lows in the middle 30s(mainly along and north of I-70),
it`s conceivable that there could be widespread frost, with perhaps
some isolated locales dropping to below 32 degrees Saturday morning.
With the surface ridge moving east of the area by Saturday evening,
southerly return flow will commence and initiate a warm up into early
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

VFR conditions are anticipated through the remainder of the forecast
period. There could be a period of light and variable winds around
midnight, but winds will recommence out of the north between 5 to 10
knots around sunrise on Wednesday morning. While the light and
variable conditions are present there could also be some minor wind
shear, as surface winds go light and winds around 500 to 1000 feet
come out of the northwest at 30 to 40 kts. After sunrise the LLWS
concern diminishes as low level mixing occurs.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


AVIATION...Leighton is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.