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000
FXUS63 KEAX 210455
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1155 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Light showers are spreading into southeast KS this afternoon ahead of
a weak upper-level wave over the TX panhandle. Most short-range
models weaken this activity quite a bit as it moves into a drier and
more stable airmass over eastern KS and western MO, and this is
likely to be the case for much of the evening so that most areas
should only receive a few sprinkles or very light showers through
midnight. One exception may be far northwest MO where there is a bit
more low-level moisture and weak instability that could support an
isolated storm or two.

Better chances for more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
will develop near or shortly after sunrise Monday as thicker low-
level moisture arrives out of TX and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Shear will be very weak and instability minimal so strong
storms will not be an issue. Any heavy rain will be limited to
brief downpours in slow-moving but short-lived storms.

Cold frontal passage will bring a rapid clearing from northwest to
southeast Monday afternoon and increasing sun should still allow
parts of northwest MO and northeast KS to rise into the mid 70s
before the core of the coolest air arrives from the north. Bulk of
this cooler airmass will stay well to the north so that overnight
lows Mon and Tue nights only drop into the mid 40s and temps Tue
still rise to near 70, pretty close to average this time of year.

Increasing southerly flow ahead of the next storm system will send
temperatures back into the lower and middle 70s on Wednesday. GFS and
ECMWF are coming into better agreement on the evolution of this
upper-wave and have trended a bit quicker with it reaching maturity
to the west and sending a cold front into the area early Thursday
morning. This would keep the highest threat for strong storms well to
our west on Wednesday, although the presence of a strong nocturnal
low-level jet and some elevated instability could still maintain a
threat for strong storms into our area late Wednesday night.

The upper pattern behind Thursday morning`s cold front will become
more zonal in nature which will allow slightly cooler temperatures
to filter into the area although conditions will still be close to
average. The next chance for rain will move in for the latter half of
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Light rain showers will continue to develop over the next several
hours in eastern Kansas and far western MO, and should eventually
evolve into widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms between
09z-12z Monday morning. Ceilings will gradually lower as showers
become more widespread, and should drop to around 2 kft by mid-
morning across the region. Winds will turn northwesterly by midday
Monday, but will only briefly gust to greater than 15 kts in far
northwest MO. Showers and associated MVFR stratus will push out of
the region during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin