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000
FXUS63 KEAX 141656
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

Main concern in the near-term will again be fire weather issues for
today as northwest winds increase behind a weak cold front, and
relative humidity again drops into the 20% to 30% range during the
afternoon. Relied heavily on the HRRR/RAP for wind speeds associated
with the frontal passage, and maintained upper 20s to around 30 F
dewpoints along and just behind the surface front, consistent with
rises in northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa early this morning.
The largest area of concern will be far northwest Missouri this
afternoon where the surface pressure gradient will be tight enough
to get 20+ mph sustained winds; however, conditions will likely
hover just below red flag criteria over most of the forecast area
for much of the afternoon. Will go ahead with a CWA-wide SPS for
high fire danger this afternoon, and will continue to evaluate near-
term trends in wind speed and RH along and just behind the surface
front.

Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday behind the
weak front, but will rise into the upper 60s to possibly low 70s for
Saturday as southerly winds return and +8 to +9 C 850mb temperatures
mix down. These temperatures, combined with mainly above-freezing
lows and abundant sunshine, should get ground temperatures quite
warm in advance of the next wintry system.

Precipitation chances will begin to increase late Saturday afternoon
as a deepening surface low lifts out of the southern High Plains.
Warm-air advection showers and possibly isolated t`storms will
spread northward ahead of the surface low on Saturday evening and
Saturday night, then a mix with or changeover to snow is possible on
the northwest side of the low Sunday morning. Both the NAM and GFS
show profiles mostly supportive of snow after the 09z-12z timeframe
in KC, shifting eastward quickly thereafter, but any falling snow
will have to battle the aforementioned warm ground temperatures.
With the best upper-dynamics diving quickly south and the higher
precip amounts progged to occur south of the forecast area, current
thinking is that snowfall rates may be too light for accumulation
across most of the forecast area. Have thrown in a token tenth for
much of the CWA on Sunday morning, but do not anticipate any real
wintry impacts with this system. Temperatures will fall on Sunday
as the upper trough deepens and cold air filters into the region,
resulting in non-diurnal temperatures for the afternoon and early
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

Precipitation will exit the forecast area before Sunday night, with
cold air advection bringing in cooler conditions. Lows early Monday
morning will fall into lower to middle 20s across much of the area.
The cool weather will be relatively short-lived as shortwave ridging
moves into the central CONUS on Monday. With much warmer H85
temperatures overspreading the area, temperatures will quickly
moderate both Monday into Monday night. Model spread greatly worsens
by Tuesday as models struggle with the position/track of the surface
low, resulting in subsequent uncertainties with the placement of the
warm sector for maximum temperatures and precipitation
probabilities. Going with a blend of models, it seems reasonable a
chance of precipitation is justified Tuesday into Tuesday night as
the strongest ascent associated with the next upper system moves
across the area. At this time, precipitation during the day would be
in the form of rain, with uncertainty (rain versus snow) in
precipitation type Tuesday night. Otherwise, dry weather is
anticipated for the remainder of the work week. High temperatures
during the upcoming work week look to be near seasonal levels with
readings in the 50s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Gusty northwest
winds will diminish tonight and become variable. Winds will become
southerly late Saturday morning and may become gusty by mid day...
although still around 20 to perhaps 25 kts maximum gusts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...CDB