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419
FXUS63 KEAX 250454
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1154 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 335 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017

Another day of pleasant conditions were in place this afternoon with
surface high pressure in control. With high pressure around through
the weekend, tranquil weather with below normal temperatures will
continue tonight into Sunday. Weak isentropic ascent coupled with a
series of weak shortwaves embedded in the upper trough will result
in chances for shallow elevated convection beginning Monday morning
lasting through Monday evening. Weak instability gradually increases
during the day on Monday, but no hazardous weather is expected
outside a few lightning strikes. With the additional cloud cover and
scattered precipitation, highs on Monday may be a few degrees cooler
in the middle 70s, nearly 10 degrees below normal. Lee trough forms
across the High Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, returning southerly
winds and moisture back into the region, with moderating
temperatures.

A more active period is anticipated mid-week into the weekend. The
last few iterations of model runs have suggested a parade of
stronger shortwave troughs in advance of a larger western trough.
With increasing upper ascent and a return of deeper moisture,
conditions will become more conducive for thunderstorm chances.
There remains modest model spread regarding timing of the waves, but
general theme will be to anticipate chances for thunderstorms each
period Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Winds will
be a bit light overnight, picking up from the north again late
Sunday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Cutter