Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 251048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
548 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017
Broad trough at 500 mb dominates the CONUS aloft...with a ridge
axis all the way over on the Pacific Coast. Several small waves to
pass through the region...but first mention of showers in the
forecast not showing until tomorrow. Until then, mostly sunny and
mild weather with highs in the 70s again today. Northwesterly
winds as high pressure continues to spread over the Plains to the
west. Another cu field expected, more dense to the north. Around
sunset, cu and gusts both diminish and a mostly clear overnight
will drop into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

A quick wave rippling into the region later on Monday. Models
a little more in line with one another and chances for precip
starting Monday and lasting into the overnight hours. Forecast for
Tuesdays highs are the start of a warming period as the wave
aloft passes through the Great Lakes. The northwesterly flow
breaks down as the 850mb thermal ridge shifts to the
east...opening up the region to the deep warm air over the desert
SW. Southwesterly flow sets up in the midlevels, perpendicular to
the thermal gradient and 850 mb temps warm from 8-10C on Tuesday 17-18C by Wednesday evening. Temperatures at the
surface climb a good 7 to 9F on Wednesday and stay warm through
the end of the week. Zonal flow sets up at h5 again, and temps
and RH continue to increase through the end of the week in a more
southerly flow regime. Another series of waves show up along the
zonal flow and keep the latter half of the week dominated by
periodic pops in the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Winds becoming more west/northwesterly this morning and gusty
through the afternoon. CU develop near midday...with the more
dense cu in the northern terminals. VFR throughout. Lose the cu
and the gusts near sunset and mild overnight with light westerly
winds generally less than 5-7kts.




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