486
FXUS63 KLSX 092021
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
321 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers are possible across portions of the area tonight.
  Thunderstorms return the first half of next week. Strong to
  severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated.

- Temperatures will be cooler than normal Friday, but seasonable
  the rest of the forecast period.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Upper trof continues to swing SE into the region this afternoon.
As it does, the clouds and showers associated with the trof will
also continue to advect into the region. Better coverage of precip
shud remain along northeastern portions of the CWA as the vort max
moves SE.

Going forecast may have too few clouds for Friday. Ample boundary
layer moisture shud allow stratus overnight to develop into CU
field under the May sun. With sfc ridge building into the region
and continued CAA, expect temps on Fri to remain below seasonal
avg.

Tilly

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A fast moving trof shud brush the area on Sat leaving NW flow over
the region. Temps shud return this weekend with ample solar
insolation. This trend continues thru the end of the forecast
period.

Upper low currently over the Rockies ejects into the Plains early
next week. Model solns continue to vary next week with differences
in phasing of upper level pattern. Nevertheless, pattern shud
support more rain compared to dry time.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Upper level trof over IA continues to slowly move southeast.
Expect CU field to continue to develop ahead of the trof this
afternoon. However, area of bkn clouds shud remain colocated with
the trof. Question becomes focused on area of showers currently
north of the region. Guidance suggests this area of SHRA will move
just east of any terminals. However, given current trends, that
soln seems less likely. Have kept mention of VCSH in KUIN TAF and
will monitor for updates. Otherwise, guidance suggests stratus
will overspread the area tonight and linger into mid Friday
morning hours.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX