Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 312030
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Focus tonight continues to be temps.

No changes to ongoing headline. If going forecast verifies, this
will end the frost/freeze headlines for the year. Going forecast
remains reasonable given the latest guidance and have made only
minor changes. With winds remaining stronger across the ern
portions of the CWA, temps will be slow to drop. However, with
continued CAA and with winds diminishing quickly twd sunrise,
believe the going forecast is still on track. Only other change is
reducing the amount of frost mentioned in the forecast. With very
dry air being advected swd and at least some wind remaining thru
the night, believe frost will be more limited to sheltered areas.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Have trended twd the warmer guidance thru the weekend. Ample
insolation shud help raise temps even with little to no WAA.
Overnight temps trend warmer as well as the sfc ridge builds ewd
and sly flow returns to much of the area. The only exception is
sern portions of the CWA tomorrow night where the sfc ridge will
be overhead. For this area, have trended twd the cooler guidance.

Focus turns to precip chances for Mon thru Tues. Mdls remain in
good agreement with this system and have gradually sped up timing
of fropa late Mon into Tues. Have moved up PoPs accordingly.
Beyond this system, mdl solns diverge quickly. With drastically
different solns late next week, have low confidence in either the
ECMWF or GFS. For now, have kept PoPs low and have trended twd a
compromise for temps.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Strong north winds gusting 25-30 kts will persist through the
afternoon and diminish around sunset. VFR flight conditions will
prevail through the period.

Specifics for KSTL:

Strong north winds gusting 26-30 kts will persist through the
afternoon and diminish around sunset. VFR flight conditions will
prevail through the period.

Glass

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     28  47  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          23  45  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        23  46  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  23  47  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           29  45  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      27  45  26  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
     MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
     Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles
     MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington
     IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






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