Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 232320
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
520 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Updated for 00Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

After a chilly start, the Thanksgiving Day forecast is panning out
nicely. The clouds in the northeast have thinned/dispersed, and
temperatures were now mid-upr 40s FA-wide, with dew points
ranging from the low-mid 20s.

Ridge west/Trof east greets us w/nwlies aloft, as surface High
pressure ridges across the Ms/Tn/Oh river valleys. It is still
progged to shift slightly eastward, with a center over the Mid
Atlantic coast Friday. As this occurs, a Great Lakes system drops
a cold front along the IL/IA border by 00Z Saturday. That gradient
between the High to the east and the front to the northwest should
yield increasing southerlies, perhaps with some gusts thru the
teens tmrw pm, esp in the north. We`ve massaged these grids
upwards slightly, like yesterday, akin to consraw. It`ll also let
us warm up nicely, with start day temps even at/slightly blo
guidance around 30, warming 30ish or so degrees, producing Black
Friday Highs close to 60/low 60s degrees.

This front will approach the FA Friday evening, making passage
overnight. It is moisture starved, but have noticed an increasing
trend to paint sporadic .01" qpf along our border. Wouldn`t be
shocked, ultimately, to see a sprinkle or two, if this trend
continues. We`ll let the collab pic (in progress) drive our final
output grid on that subject.

The Holiday weekend is relatively unchanged, in the post frontal
environment with surface High pressure again sliding overhead in
the wake of the front`s departure, and a cooldown back closer to
seasonal norms for highs/lows.

Looking into next work week, we`ll start to moderate again as the
Western U.S. ridge builds eastward and our surface high shifts
eastward/returns southerlies. Highs rebound and temps rise
correspondingly again, with some 60s showing up again Monday and
esp Tuesday. Winds ought to start cranking Tuesday, as swlies
aloft deepen, and southern Plains cyclogenesis tightens the
gradient between the storm there and the high now over Bermuda,
with us in the tightened gradient between.

Pcpn chances will ensue as this system approaches during this mid
week period. The 12Z deterministic GFS tracks it from OK-AR-TN,
while the EURO lifts it further north, across MO-IL-IN. This will
make a marked difference in temps, and instability, but we think
the net effect will just be a plain/wet (liquid) weather forecast.
It looks like we`re just warm enough to preclude any other pcpn
type mention with the southern solution, and not quite unstable
enough to intro anything other than showers, with the northern
solution, even noting dew points do bump up into the 50s. We`re
running with the blend for now, with some massages as requested
per collab.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

High pressure centered over the region will bring quiet weather and
light winds through tonight. An increase in high clouds is
expected later tonight and into Firday morning. South winds below
10 kts will increase and become gusty on Friday afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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