Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 201748 AAB
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1148 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

The AVIATION discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

UPDATE Issued at 557 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

The fog has lifted over all but a few locations in the EVV Tri
State, as thicker mid and high clouds overspread the area. Will
likely be killing off of the Dense Fog Advisory entirely after
confirming that it has lifted everywhere in the 12Z observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

An area of mid-level clouds has pushed across southeast Missouri,
where visibilities have improved greatly. Will be watching trends
as the clouds move eastward over the remainder of the area
through sunrise. We may be able to cancel the Dense Fog Advisory
early, if conditions continue to improve and the fog doesn`t re-
develop where the clouds thin out again before sunrise.

An upper-level ridge will slip east of the area today, allowing
high clouds ahead of our next storm system to stream over the
region through the day. The 00Z guidance is in pretty good
agreement in keeping the area dry through the day, and most of the
evening. Look for some showers to begin to spread eastward into
southeast Missouri after 03Z this evening.

As stated yesterday, the approaching upper trough is comprised of
two distinct systems: a slow-moving southern stream system that
actually becomes a closed low as it moves into the northern Gulf
Coast Tuesday, and a more progressive trough in the northern
stream moving through the Great Lakes. We could still get caught
in between these two systems and get little if any precipitation.
However, the consensus of 00Z guidance brings a band of showers
eastward through southeast Missouri late tonight, associated more
with the northern stream system and its weak surface front. A
drying trend is advertised as this convection moves east of the
Mississippi River Tuesday.

A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, but showers will be
the dominant mode late tonight in southeast Missouri. We will have
likely PoPs in southeast Missouri late tonight, and then lower
them to good chance levels for the most part Tuesday. A few
showers may linger into Tuesday evening in the far east.

On Wednesday we should see winds remain from the south/southwest
and increase in the afternoon as another storm system and surface
low move eastward through the northern Plains toward the Great
Lakes. Low-level moisture will remain across the region, so there
is some chance of showers, especially over west Kentucky Wednesday
and even Wednesday night.

As for temperatures, figure we will see enough insolation make it
through the high clouds today to approach record highs in the mid
70s over much of the region. Went a bit above guidance for today`s
highs. Clouds and precipitation will lead to a mild night tonight
and a cooler day Tuesday. With some decent sunshine possible
Wednesday leaned to the warm side of guidance again, which may
bring record highs into play. These record high temperatures are
beginning to sound like a broken record!

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

On Thursday morning, our next weather system will be organizing over
the eastern Rockies, as a warm front develops to our north. This sfc
low shifts east by 00Z Friday into Kansas and the warm front lifts
even further north. Therefore, we should be relatively dry Thursday
and Thursday night. Just not a lot of moisture to work with above
850mb, but plenty in the low levels to keep a good deal of clouds
around at least. Winds will begin picking up Thursday night and
especially on Friday as that low gets closer.

By 12Z Friday, the sfc low should be somewhere in the vicinity of
northwest MO or far southern IA with a cold front situated to our
west. This front will move eastward through the day and provide, at
least for now, just a small chance for showers and some storms.
Again, the main limiting factor right now is deep moisture. This is
due in part to a storm system earlier in the week disrupting the
return of decent moisture. Therefore, coverage of the activity is
looking rather scattered at this time. Wind fields continue to look
impressive and surface dewpoints are at least into the mid to upper
50s, allowing for a little bit of sfc based instability. Mid levels
just look a bit too dry to get real excited right now.

Still looking at the possibility of lingering activity Friday
evening in the east but we should be seeing precipitation chances
coming to an end Friday night. High pressure will build in on
Saturday and provide us with dry and much cooler weather. Highs will
be back down to near normal on Saturday with highs in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. Saturday night will be the coldest night with lows in
the low 30s.

Dry weather will continue through Sunday but the sfc high will be
shifting east during the day on Sunday as our next storm system
approaches. Models are actually in very good agreement on the timing
of this next system and suggests a good chance for more rain
starting Sunday night and lasting into Monday. Some shifts in timing
are still likely but models seem to be on the right track.
Temperatures on Sunday will remain in the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Conditions will begin to slowly deteriorate as a storm system
approaches the region tonight. After midnight the possibility of
showers increases along with small chances of thunder. The frontal
boundary hangs up over the TAF sites so during the last 6 hours of
the period chances for precipitation will be greatest. Ceilings
should eventually come down to at least MVFR levels as the rain
arrives along with the deeper moisture. Winds early will generally be
out of the southeast AOB 10 knots with a few higher gusts possible
at KCGI, then variable AOB 5 knots through the rest of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP



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