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000
FXUS63 KPAH 160504
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1202 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

NONE OF THE MODELS DEPICT MUCH IF ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR OUR
FAR NORTH TO WEST COUNTIES IN OUR CWFA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT OR
VERY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DRY
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. CHANCES DO INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
UNSETTLED / SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MONDAY...AS THE MODELS DEPICT A MORE
STAND OUT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MET/GFS MOS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE
USED A BLEND OF IT RAW MODEL OUTPUT AND EXISTING NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

A LINGERING SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE PLAINS. WHILE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DURING THIS
TIME...THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY
TO A MINIMUM. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...WITH A
SWRLY FLOW THAT WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE TO 10 KTS OR LESS AND
HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN HALF OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A CLEAR ENOUGH SIGNAL TO INCLUDE AN
INTERVAL OF CONVECTION AT ANY TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$