Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 201749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The most recent HRRR output indicates that the thunder potential
has pushed east of the area. There will still be pockets of light
rain or showers through the afternoon, but not much in the way of
measurable rain.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Cold front is making its way southeast across the Ohio River
early this morning. Post-frontal showers and isolated
thunderstorms were in progress over portions of southeast
MO/southern IL, and this activity will spread southeast as the
day progresses. Many locations along and southeast of the Ohio
River will see maximum temperatures early today, with readings
falling off to near 60 behind the front.

Most of the shower activity will push southeast of the region by
tonight as high pressure nudges east toward MS River Valley.
Temperatures will remain well below normal despite a likely
return to some sunshine. In fact, some locations up along the I-64
corridor may dip into the upper 30s Friday night under clear skies
and light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is fairly high
due to good model agreement.

An upper level ridge moves into the region Saturday. With strong
northwest flow, high temperatures Saturday will be cooler than
normal with readings in the mid 60s.

From Sunday through the early part of Wednesday, high pressure at
the surface will define our weather with southwest winds bringing
moderating temperatures. Northwest flow aloft will keep us dry. High
temperatures will warm back above normal with readings in the middle
70s. Overnight lows will warm a little each night with readings by
Wednesday morning in the lower to middle 50s.

High pressure will move off to the east by midweek allowing a cold
front to approach the region. This will bring a chance of showers
and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday afternoon.


Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

East of the Mississippi River, scattered MVFR showers and
widespread IFR ceilings are expected for the first few hours of
the forecasts. MVFR ceilings will prevail during this time at
KCGI. Ceilings are expected to slowly lift through the MVFR range
through the afternoon at KCGI and KPAH and will eventually reach
VFR levels by the end of the day. Stronger northwest winds will
spread south and east across the area this afternoon. Some gusts
20-25kts will be possible late this afternoon, and possibly into
the evening at KEVV and KOWB.

There is a pretty strong signal for MVFR, if not IFR, ceilings to
linger well through the night at KEVV and KOWB. Scattered showers
will also be a concern in the northeast. Ended up just leaving an
MVFR ceiling through the end of the forecasts up there. May see
some gustiness develop again by late Friday morning, especially in
the west.




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