Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 301846
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
146 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WARM/MOIST ENVIRON FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP/DISSIPATE/REDEVELOP IN
AFTERNOON HEAT...BUT NO STRONG DYNAMICAL ENERGY MEANS MAINLY PULSE
AND LINE SEGMENTS SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN PRIMARY FOCUS. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WIND GUST HOWEVER.

THIS HIGH POP REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UPPER
LOW OPENS OUT ON ITS MOVE ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLES AND DRIVES COLD FRONT THRU FOR PASSAGE. BY
MIDNIGHT/THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM BEHIND
FRONT...AS IT SHFTS EAST.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY DOES LIFT ACROSS MEAN UPPER TROF AND THRU
OUR AREA TMRW...SO WE`LL HAVE TO LINGER POPS THRU SUNDAY...BUT
THEY`LL BE ON THE DOWNTICK IN COMPARISON.

HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE MOVING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY AS
LOWS IN THE 60S RECENTLY NUDGE DOWN INTO THE 50S AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HRS MAKES. THOUGH THERE WERE HINTS PREVIOUSLY
THAT IT MIGHT HAPPEN...THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE NOW TRENDED MUCH
DRIER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST HALF. THE
PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE DOMINANCE NOW AS A DOME OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY FILTERS INTO THE AREA INITIALLY. AS A WRN CONUS TROF PERSISTS
IN VARYING DEGREES ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...SOME
VERSION OF MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE NRN STREAM REMAINING
ACTIVE. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IN THE ERN CONUS RIDGE
APPEARED TO BE FAR AWAY ENOUGH FROM THE PAH FORECAST AREA (THE
ATLANTIC COAST) AS TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER.
THE FLOW ALOFT OVER US WILL BE WEAK.

BY THU...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PICK UP MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT
OVER OUR REGION...AND THEREFORE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE MADE
AVAILABLE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY YIELD THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TSTMS IN THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD DISAPPEAR THU NIGHT..THEN RETURN FOR FRI
WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE.

IN THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MID WEEK...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
STILL REACH ABOUT 80 TUE...CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM ABOUT 60 INITIALLY TO ABOUT
65.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WHILE VFR SCT-BKN BASES ARE PRESENT...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SIMILARLY...MVFR RESTRICTED VSBYS IN CONVECTION ARE
FORECAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND IFR CANNOT BE ALTOGETHER
RULED OUT. SLYS MAY GUST INTO THE 20S KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY
DIURNALLY. OVERNIGHT...POPS SHOULD WANE BUT LOW CIGS IN THE IFR
CAT MAYD DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND FRONT MAKING PASSAGE. WE`LL SEE THAT
MOVE BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER SUNRISE/DURING THE PLANNING
PERIOD AS VICINITY MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN APPEARS. WINDS
TONIGHT SHIFT TO WLYS WITH FROPA AND THEN NWLYS-NLYS BY TMRW
MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$



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