Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 060626
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1226 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

The 00Z NAM shows the pressure gradient being at its weakest late
this evening, and then tightening up from the north overnight.
Temperatures have plummeted a bit faster than expected so far this
evening, but figure they will bottom out by/around 06Z and then
climb to some extent as winds kick in and stir things up a bit
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 115 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

We continue to see a deep mid level trof over the east 1/2 of the
nation at the beginning of the period. From Saturday into early
next week, the axis will shift east allowing for height rises and
moderating temperatures after a cold day Saturday.

Precip wise, still looking at a potential light snow/flurry event
late Friday night into Saturday with a clipper like system
forecast by the ops models to move SE across the area. QPF remains
light, and we continue to see spatial and temporal wavering. A
sum of the model solutions the past 3 days suggests the best
chance still exists across the KEVV area (NE 1/3 of the CWFA).
Chances lower farther west and especially west of the MS River.
Will keep PoPs in the 20s/30s east of I-55 for now. Still not too
excited about this system given marginal moisture and model
variance, expected duration. Dry weather Saturday night through
next Monday night. There is just a slight chance of light showers
Tuesday. Way too soon to say for sure that far out in time.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

We continue to see a deep mid level trof over the east 1/2 of the
nation at the beginning of the period. From Saturday into early
next week, the axis will shift east allowing for height rises and
moderating temperatures after a cold day Saturday.

Precip wise, still looking at a potential light snow/flurry event
late Friday night into Saturday with a clipper like system
forecast by the ops models to move SE across the area. QPF remains
light, and we continue to see spatial and temporal wavering. A
sum of the model solutions the past 3 days suggests the best
chance still exists across the KEVV area (NE 1/3 of the CWFA).
Chances lower farther west and especially west of the MS River.
Will keep PoPs in the 20s/30s east of I-55 for now. Still not too
excited about this system given marginal moisture and model
variance, expected duration. Dry weather Saturday night through
next Monday night. There is just a slight chance of light showers
Tuesday. Way too soon to say for sure that far out in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1108 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities will be the rule for the
06z Wednesday WFO PAH TAF issuance. Added a mention of few to
scattered 6-7kft agl cloud deck in the 00z to 06z Thursday time
frame. Although intermittent gusts will be expected during the
day, just focused on mean wind speed and direction for each
forecast group with this issuance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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