Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 270737
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
237 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Average confidence in the short term.

A large area of showers associated with a decaying MCS/MCV at the
time of this writing will continue to shrivel up as it moves out of
our CWA early this morning.

Otherwise the short term forecast will continue to be dependent on
the strength and position of a dirty H5 ridge that fluctuates in
strength and position across our CWA through the period. As a
result, precipitation chances will be rather small and more diurnal
in nature with coverage mainly dependent on the location of small
scale/mesoscale focusing mechanisms such as outflow boundaries and
differential heating.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A weak upper level high will be centered over the region to start
out the long term period. This upper high weakens even further
throughout the day and into the night time hours on Tuesday and we
end up in a weak northwest flow pattern aloft.

There is an upper level wave that will approach the area Wednesday
or Thursday, but timing continues to be a problem between models and
the different runs. Right now, this wave tends to weaken as it
approaches but it should provide a small chance for some rain.
Otherwise, chances for rain will be rather small. GFS ensemble
precip mean charts indicate the best chances for any rainfall will
be in our western counties, where the better moisture will be
located. For now, until models can get their timing in better sync,
will keep POPs low for the first few days of the extended.

Beyond that, an upper level ridge builds in and should shut off any
chances for rain for Friday.

Temperatures will be near 90 for Tuesday but should drop back down
into the 80s for the remainder of the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

A final round of showers and storms will impact KOWB and most
likely KEVV, too, for the first hour or two of the period. Not
sure how much TS there will be, but figure KOWB will see a decent
shot at it. The stratiform rain currently over KPAH should
diminish before the beginning of the period, and MVFR fog is
likely to develop quickly once it does. Although KCGI has not
gotten tangibly wet recently, they should also see MVFR fog fairly
early in the period. Will have to watch for IFR or lower
conditions in fog at both of these sites and possibly KEVV and
KOWB if they get some significant rainfall in the next few hours.

Once the fog lifts in the morning, VFR conditions should prevail,
with high pressure aloft re-asserting itself over the region.
Outside of thunderstorm outflows early in the period, winds will
be light through the remainder of the forecast at all sites.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS


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