Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 290714
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
214 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

LOOKS LIKE OUR AREA IS IN FOR ONE MORE DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...THEN RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. IF THERE IS A LACK OF CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION TODAY LIKE THE MODELS ARE INFERRING...IT
WILL BE ANOTHER MISERABLE DAY WHERE OUTDOOR WORK/ACTIVITIES ARE
CONCERNED. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AND IN THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN HALF. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WEST AND
MIDDLE 70S EAST...HEAT INDICES SHOULD TOP OUT AOA 110 WEST AND AOA
105 EAST. CONSEQUENTLY WILL CONTINUE WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
WEST AND HEAT ADVISORY EAST.

A BONA FIDE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY.
IT SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AROUND MIDDAY AND
CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA BY MID EVENING. EVEN WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF BOTH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER SUPPORT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE SCOURING OUT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE BY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

BEYOND THAT THAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND GETTING COOLER WITH LOWER
HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CAN BE SUMMED UP AS MOSTLY RAIN-FREE...
SOMEWHAT COOLER...AND CERTAINLY LESS HUMID. THE PAH FORECAST AREA
WILL BE UNDER NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...AND MOSTLY NWRLY DRY FLOW IN THE
LOWER TROP. WITHIN THIS FLOW...THERE WILL TEND TO BE MINOR
PERTURBATIONS FROM TIME TO TIME...THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WHICH
THE MED RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS MAY NOT ALWAYS AGREE ON. ONE OF
THESE...LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A SFC WIND
SHIFT...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY NORTH OF I-
64.

OTHERWISE...BY THE DAY 7 (TUE) TIME FRAME...THE MODELS HAVE
SUGGESTED AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER THAT A SFC BOUNDARY OF SOME SORT
WILL APPROACH THE PAH FORECAST AREA...AND THEY CONTINUE TO. AS THE
PARENT NRN STREAM SHRTWV APPROACHES...VORTICITY IN THE INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT OF UNSTABLE
PARCELS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE HEAT OF THE
DAY.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...AND LOWER 90S SOUTH CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

KOWB RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM A THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING...AND STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR OR LOWER FOG
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
MAY MAKE IT TO KEVV BY MORNING...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST
THAT IT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE GETTING THERE. WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR
NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.

MIXING JUST SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL TAKE WINDS TO
WEST NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND THEN NORTH BY EVENING. SCATTERED TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ084-
     085-088-089-092>094.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>083-
     086-087-090-091.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ001>006.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ007>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...DB
AVIATION...DRS


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