Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 221800
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
200 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool easterly flow will wedge against the eastern slopes of
the Blue Ridge tonight, while an area of low pressure brings
rain for the Mid Atlantic. After the rain exits by Saturday
afternoon, winds will become gusty until high pressure arrives
on Sunday to provide dry weather for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain arrives this evening and becomes widespread by tonight.

2) Gusty winds will arrive by Saturday afternoon.

An easterly flow has taken shape across the Mid Atlantic. This
cool and damp flow should wedge against the eastern slopes of
the Blue Ridge later this evening. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure developing along the Gulf Coast will move northeastward
to bring increasing clouds and rain chances by this evening.
Rain should become widespread by sunset with steadier rainfall
persisting throughout the overnight. One to two inches are
possible along the Blue Ridge, but amounts could stay under an
inch to the west. The dry antecedent conditions have made any
flooding risk appear to be very low.

During early Saturday morning, low clouds will be prevalent
with patchy fog also possible. As the wind spirals from the
east to the north and eventually to the northwest, the cool
wedge will gradually begin to erode. By Saturday afternoon, the
wind should become gusty as the rain subsides and skies begin to
clear. Gusts could exceed 40 mph along the southern Blue Ridge
and 30 mph elsewhere on Saturday evening, and there could be a
few downed trees and power lines due to the combination of wet
soil and the expected wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Exiting rain Saturday

2) Dry weather is expected for Sunday and Sunday night.

Low pressure system will almost be out of our area by Sunday
morning. Rain will continue for much of the morning before
tapering off from west to east in the afternoon. As the
associated from moves over the area, it will begin to break down
a wedge with strong NW winds. Gusts along ridges could reach 40
MPH Saturday evening and overnight. High pressure will quickly
take over and calm the winds to just breezy by Sunday morning.
The high pressure overhead will make for a quiet weather day the
remainder of Sunday. Behind the front however, we will
experience another plunge in temperatures, safely below freezing
for almost the entire area both Saturday and Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather on Monday.

2) Chances of rain increase for Tuesday but should peak on
Wednesday before gradually decreasing by Thursday.

High pressure should keep the Mid Atlantic dry  Monday and
Monday night. Clouds will increase by early Tuesday as a low
pressure system deepens across the northern Plains. The
advancement of this system will be seriously hampered by a
growing ridge over the east coast. Rain could arrive as early as
Tuesday afternoon as moisture and the associated front slowly
encroach on southwest VA. Rain will likely end by Thursday
morning, depending on how slow the system is moving at that
point. Behind it though, will be more clear weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Ceilings will bounce between MVFR and VFR this afternoon as
cloud coverage increases. BLF and LWB could see a gusty
southeast wind up to 20 knots during the next few hours. By
this evening, rain should spread northward, and ceilings will
drop to IFR and eventually LIFR after midnight. A northeast wind
could gust up to 20 knots at LYH and DAN later in the night.

Patchy fog and low ceilings will cause poor flying conditions
through the early morning hours of Saturday morning. The rain
should subside by midday as the wind spirals around to the north
and later to the northwest. As clouds scatter and conditions
improve to VFR during Saturday afternoon, the wind should become
gusty. Gusts exceeding 30 knots are possible at ROA by sunset,
and some higher gusts are likely along the southern Blue Ridge.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A gusty northwest wind should persist into Saturday night but
eventually diminish by early Sunday morning as high pressure
builds across the Mid Atlantic. Good flying weather is expected
for Sunday and Monday. Clouds should increase on Tuesday, but
conditions should remain VFR. A low pressure system will arrive
during Tuesday night into Wednesday to bring the next chance of
rain and IFR/MVFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ020-024.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...PW


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