955
FXUS61 KRNK 270020
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
820 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure heat ridge will weaken into the weekend. This
will continue to allow widespread scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop as an extremely moist and unstable
airmass continues to remain over the region through the middle
of next week. Temperatures will gradually cool to more seasonal
temperatures through the weekend into into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 805 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Strong/severe storms early this evening weaken.

2) More scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening
with marginal risk for severe and excessive rainfall.

A busy afternoon with damaging winds and localized flash
flooding occurring, with downbursts the main severe threat due
to higher moisture content and DCAPES above 800 J/kg. Slow
moving storms resulted in flash flooding in and around Radford,
VA with swift water rescues. Some locations received 3" in 30-45
mins.

Convection this afternoon has worked over the airmass, so should
see weakening into late evening. Mesoanalysis and severe
parameters still point to a potential for stronger storms
through midnight over the NC Piedmont into southside VA.

Previous discussion...

Surface high pressure sliding off the Northeast coastline on
Friday will lead to light northeasterly flow across area. This
will add some enhanced upslope and convergent surface flow
across the eastern facing Blue Ridge. An early start of storms
is possible across higher terrain locations given the
aforementioned upslope and convergent flow. This flow pattern
combined with a highly unstable environment characterized by
1800 to 2500 J/Kg of SBCAPE and 1200-1500 J/Kg of DCAPE will
provide support for strong downburst winds and isolated large
hail across the area. With PWATs in the 1.6-1.8 inch range,
there will also be the possibility of localized flash flooding.
Thunderstorm activity should diminish through the late evening
hours across the area as instability starts to wane. Daytime
high temperatures look to be elevated in the low 90s east of the
Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge. While
dewpoints will remain elevated in the low to mid 70s in the
Piedmont, forecast daytime high temperatures have come down
enough that a Heat Advisory is not warranted as Heat index
Values should drop back into the upper 90s to low 100s.

Lows this morning will drop into the mid 60s west of the Blue
Ridge, and low 70s east of the Blue Ridge. With plentiful
moisture expected near the surface across the area from today`s
forecast thunderstorms, areas of fog will develop towards the
late overnight and early morning hours for much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Hot and humid through the weekend, with daily chances of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure will slide off the southeast coast while low pressure
wobbles over the southeastern states this weekend. The combination
of these two systems will continue to pump warm moist air into the
region. During peak heating, storms will likely form along and west
of the Blue Ridge, then drift east over the foothills and Piedmont
in the evening. Storms should fade by midnight, but a few may linger
into the early morning hours. The primary threat from these storms
will be damaging wind gusts. With PWATS ranging from 1.30 to 1.70
inches and storm motion is weak, local flash flooding is possible.

High temperatures this weekend will range from the low to mid 80s
across the mountains to the low to mid 90s across the foothills and
Piedmont. These temperatures are around 4F to 8F warmer than normal.
Dew points will also remain warm running between the mid 60s to mid
70s. The coupling the two will have heat indices values 3F to 7F
warmer than the actual temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot temperatures and daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms continue.

2) More widespread thunderstorms possible Tuesday with the
passage of a cold front, which may also bring some relief from
the heat.

The threat of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
continue Monday. A cold front is expected to slowly track across the
region Tuesday into Wednesday. This front will bring a higher chance
for more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. This
front should move into eastern Virginia and central North Carolina
Tuesday night into Wednesday with slightly cooler drier airmass
overtaking the area Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR condition are expected through the remainder of today
outside of any thunderstorm activity that may move into the vicinity
of terminals this evening. LWB/LYH have the best chance and
maybe DAN per some models. Should see convection weaken going
toward 04z. Fog will then begin to form but models differ on
extent due to lingering cloud cover. Confidence higher for lower
vsbys at BCB/LWB but could see MVFR to IFR fog after 09z at all
terminals.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to develop
during the late morning and early afternoon on Friday, with
storms initially developing across higher terrain locations west
of the Blue Ridge. These storms throughout the afternoon and
evening look to progress east into the Piedmont. For now will
have VCTS at all TAF sites Fri afternoon.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should maintain VFR conditions into early next
week outside of any storms and late night/early morning fog. A
front tracking in by Tuesday will bring a better coverage of
storms and better chance of sub-VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB/WP