Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 302050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT
REACHES OUR REGION...IT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION WILL TRACK
EAST...THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY ARE WITHIN A WEAK
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION AND CAPITAL DISTRICT TO SOUTHERN VERMONT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT AND DEW POINT BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BUILD EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND BY SUNRISE...SHOULD BE JUST THROUGH THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...SOME OF THE TACONICS AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. THERE SHOULD BE A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT AND DEW POINT BOUNDARY...SO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT AREAS SUCH AS PARTS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. SO...LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE SOLIDLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MAXIMUM ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO CHANCES FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WELL. SO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES TO THE CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA DROPS TO NEAR THE U.S.
CANADA BORDER...ENHANCING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SO...OUR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...AS WE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT ABOVE THE SURFACE...DEEP MOISTURE...UPPER DYNAMICS...
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A FAIRLY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH OUR BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET SEGMENT IN CANADA...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK QUITE SLOWLY EAST...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL
WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT DUE TO THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE
PROGRESS OF THE UPPER AND LOW LEVEL FEATURES...AND THE EXIT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET...THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE MORE
TOWARD MONDAY...WITH SOME BEGINNING OF MODERATION TUESDAY.
SO...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO JUST STAY STEADY MUCH OF SUNDAY...
THEN SLOWLY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...WITH MORE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES AGAIN...SHOULD RISE A
FEW DEGREES AT BEST MONDAY...WITH MANY AREAS PEAKING IN THE 50S.

BY TUESDAY...WESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY DECREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL...WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

THE LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...AS
VEGETATION SHOULD SOAK UP MUCH OF THE RAIN AND RUN OFF SHOULD NOT
PUSH MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS TO OR ABOVE CAUTION STAGE. STILL...
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE FOR SOME HIGHLY LOCALIZED POSSIBLE
STANDING WATER IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS MID/UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM.

THIS SHOULD FAVOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.

EVENTUALLY...BY NEXT SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH MAY INFUSE SOME DEEPER LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN U.S.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS...

TUE NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL BE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT. MIN TEMPS
FOR TUE NT/WED AM SHOULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT COOL...GENERALLY FALLING
INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
FOR SOME FROST POTENTIAL...WHICH WOULD BE ACCENTUATED IF SKIES CLEAR
OUT EARLY ENOUGH.

WED-THU NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WED NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THU MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD ONLY FALL
INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FRI-SAT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN BUILDING BACK NORTH AND
EAST INTO THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES BY LATER SAT. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS INTO THE
SLIGHT CHC RANGE BY LATE FRI INTO FRI NT...THEN CHC POPS BY SAT
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WARMER AND INCREASINGLY HUMID...WITH MAX
TEMPS BOTH DAYS LIKELY REACHING 80-85 IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT/SAT AM SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM...AND
POSSIBLY A BI HUMID...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS FALLING TO 55-
60...ALTHOUGH SOME PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY MAY ONLY FALL
BACK INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY CONFINED
ALONG AN APPROXIMATE LINE FROM CAPITAL/SARATOGA REGION EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CATSKILLS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE CONVECTION
TO INCREASE BOTH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL AT LEAST PLACE A VCSH/-SHRA
FOR KPSF-KALB-KGFL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THEN EXTEND IT FOR
KPOU FOR THIS EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATES
SOUTHWARD...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS /EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS/ WILL
EXPAND. THIS WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES TO BE ATTAINED. OVERNIGHT...AS THE COOLER AIR FILTERS
SOUTHWARD...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE STRATIFORM RAIN FIELD
THAT WILL EVOLVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING
FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LONG DURATION WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. SO...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
THROUGH THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ON THE BOUNDARY SLOWING ITS PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION
AND RESULTING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SINCE MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS ONLY SEEN ABOUT
HALF ITS NORMAL RAINFALL SO FAR THIS YEAR.

THE LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...AS
VEGETATION SHOULD SOAK UP MUCH OF THE RAIN AND RUN OFF SHOULD NOT
PUSH MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS TO OR ABOVE CAUTION STAGE. STILL...
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE FOR SOME HIGHLY LOCALIZED POSSIBLE
STANDING WATER IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.