Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 221731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING
OVER THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE
REGION OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM...ON AND OFF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE BIGGEST THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. RAIN RATES ARE MUCH LIGHTER THAN
SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT/EARLIER TODAY...WITH MAINLY RATES OF A
QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR LESS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM
HRRR SHOWS SLOW MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTN...WITH A DECREASING TREND TOWARDS EVENING...AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO LOW CHC BY THIS EVENING/

STILL...AREAS THAT OBSERVED FLOODING LAST NIGHT IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THAT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL WILL HAVE TO
MONITORED CLOSELY...AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT
THE CLEAN UP EFFORTS IN THAT AREA.

WITH CLOUD SKIES ALL DAY...TEMPS WILL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE 65 TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS SCATTERED DRIZZLE/SHOWERS FROM A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED DRIZZLE/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AT KALB THROUGH 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KALB AS
WELL FROM 18Z TO 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE/MIST THAT MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AFTER 09Z BEFORE DRIER AIR
ALLOWS VFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE TAF SITES BY 15Z
SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5
KNOTS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







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