Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 221016
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
616 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain south of the region through
Sunday. A weak wave of low pressure tracking along this front
will bring some showers for this afternoon and tonight, mainly
to southern areas. A stronger low pressure system approaching
from the Great Lakes will bring more widespread showers and
thunderstorms for late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 615 AM EDT, patchy high/mid level clouds continue to
stream across the region, mainly for areas near and north of
I-90.

Some breaks of sun will remain possible this morning, esp across
southern areas. However, thicker mid level clouds currently
located across the Great Lakes in association with the northern
fringe of MCS, in combination with enhanced lift from right
entrance region of jet max translating east across southern
Quebec, should allow these clouds to spread across central and
northern areas this afternoon.

In addition, some near-term/mesoscale models, particularly the
HRRR, suggest that some light showers/sprinkles may try to
develop close to the I-90 corridor this afternoon, as mid level
frontogenetical forcing increases across the region, which will
remain coincident with the aforementioned right entrance region
of jet max. The precipitation will be falling from a fairly
high cloud base, so it remains uncertain how much, if any, rain
reaches the surface. At this time, have indicated slight chance
PoPs for these areas for isolated showers/sprinkles this
afternoon. Additional isolated showers may form across the upper
Hudson Valley/Lake George-Saratoga region and southern VT as a
weak secondary cold front settles southward late this afternoon.

Elsewhere, expect a mix of clouds and sun, with more clouds for
this afternoon. Some showers may also develop across southern
areas toward sunset as a weak wave of low pressure, possibly
associated with an MCS, tracks east from the Ohio Valley/lower
Great Lakes region through PA.

Highs should be a bit cooler than recent days due to prospects
for more cloud cover, with mainly mid 70s to lower 80s expected,
except still reaching 85-90 across portions of the mid Hudson
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tonight, it appears that the main prospects for steadier/heavier
rainfall should remain just south of the region, in association
with the aforementioned potential MCS and weak low pressure
wave. Some showers on its northern edge could reach into the mid
Hudson Valley/NW CT overnight. In addition, some mid level
frontogenesis could promote additional showers farther north and
east, perhaps into the Capital Region and Berkshires. So, have
indicated slight chance PoPs as far north as the Capital Region,
with chance to low likely PoPs further south. Lows mainly in the
60s.

Sunday, it appears that some subsidence in the wake of any
overnight wave may allow for relatively rain-free conditions in
the morning for most areas. However, as forcing from an
amplifying shortwave approaching from the Great Lakes
approaches, showers should redevelop and/or expand north and
east in the afternoon, with best chances for areas west of the
Hudson River. There will be a weak secondary front sagging south
and west through the region as well. High temperatures should
mainly reach the 70s, except possibly lower 80s within the mid
Hudson Valley. If clouds remain more persistent through the day,
cooler max temps will be possible.

Sunday night-Monday, as stronger upper level forcing
overspreads the region with the approaching and strengthening
shortwave, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms should
become likely during the period. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible. The higher-res NAM suggests that as drier low level
air settles into the region and becomes rain-cooled, that much
cooler temperatures could prevail Monday, especially from the
Hudson River Valley and points east. This could act to greatly
limit sfc-based instability in these areas. For now, will
include mention of thunder, mainly due to prospects for elevated
instability with Showalter Indices dipping to 0 to -3 C.
However, it appears that the threat for surface based convection
may remain limited across the region. Lows Sunday night should
fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s, with highs Monday only
recovering into the mid 60s to lower 70s, although in areas
where remain persists through the day, temps may only hover
between 60 and 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather is expected to start and end the long term period
with drier weather expected in the middle.

Monday night and Tuesday...There will still be a chance of showers
as areas of low pressure move off to the north and east of the
forecast area by Tuesday morning. Lows Monday night will be in the
mid 50s to mid 60s with highs on Tuesday in the mid 60s to upper 70s.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Expect mainly dry weather as a
ridge of high pressure builds across the region on Wednesday. Expect
lows Tuesday night to be in the 50s to around 60 with highs on
Wednesday in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

Wednesday night through Friday...Expect unsettled weather with a
chance of thunderstorms on Thursday as Showalter indices go
negative. A warm front will cross the region late Wednesday night
followed by a cold front on Thursday. A backdoor front will try to
build southeast from Canada late Thursday night into Friday. Lows
Wednesday night and Thursday night will be in the upper 50s to mid
60s with highs on Thursday in the upper 60s to upper 70s and on
Friday in the upper 60s to mid 80s.

Overall expect precipitation to be above normal with temperatures
below normal during the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the
end of the TAF period ending at 12Z Sunday. Mid and high clouds
will be the main sky condition through the TAF period with
little if any fog expected tonight due to the cloud cover. There
may be a passing shower late in the day or this evening at KPOU
so have included a PROB30 to go that chance.

Light and variable to calm winds will become west to northwest
at 4-8 kts today before becoming light and variable again this
evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A stationary front will remain south of the region through
Sunday. A weak wave of low pressure tracking along this front
will bring some showers for this afternoon and tonight, mainly
to southern areas. A stronger low pressure system approaching
from the Great Lakes will bring more widespread showers and
thunderstorms for late Sunday into Monday.

The RH will fall into the 40-60 percent range this afternoon,
then recover to 85-100 percent tonight. RH will fall to 50-65
percent Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be mainly from the west to southwest at 5-10 mph
today, then become northwest to north at less than 10 mph
tonight. On Sunday, winds will be mainly north to northeast at
5-10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A weak wave of low pressure passing south of the region later
today and tonight will bring some showers, mainly to southern
areas. Rainfall amounts through Sunday morning should generally
remain under one quarter of an inch.

A stronger low pressure system and its associated fronts will
bring widespread showers/thunderstorm for Sunday night into
Monday. Rainfall amounts should range from one half inch to one
inch, although locally higher amounts will be possible. Some
ponding of water in low lying, poor drainage and urban areas may
occur during this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL


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