Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 300817
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
417 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring sunshine and seasonable
temperatures to the region today.  The surface high will move off
the New England Coast tonight with clouds increasing from the west.
A slow moving cold front and an upper level disturbance will bring
the next threat of showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York
and western New England Wednesday into Thursday...as a cooler and
drier air mass will build in by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 417 AM EDT...A pleasant late August day is expected across
eastern NY and western New England...as high pressure dominates
with mostly sunny/sunny skies and light winds. The patchy morning
fog in the river valleys...lakes...and near other bodies of water
should burn off fairly quickly.

The sfc anticyclone will gradually drift eastward across the
region by the afternoon. Some cirrus will likely increase late in
the day well in advance of the next cold front approaching from
southeast Canada and the Great Lakes Region. Max temps today will
be normal to slightly above normal for the date with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...The cold front will remain well upstream...but a
prefrontal sfc trough will trigger a few showers across northern
NY overnight...and likely graze the southern Adirondack Region.
Most of the forecast area will just see some mid and high clouds
increase with the sfc anticyclone moving off the New England
Coast. Slight or low chc pops were used especially after midnight
north and west of the Greater Capital Region. Lows will be in the
mid 50s to lower 60s across the fcst area.

Wednesday...The prefrontal sfc trough and midlevel disturbance
associated with the upper level trough will increase the threat
for showers and thunderstorms across the region especially in the
afternoon. Sfc dewpts rise back into the 60s...but both the
GFS/NAM are not showing much instability with amounts generally
under 500 J/kg...with some pockets of 500-1000 J/kg especially
towards the St Lawrence Valley. The deeper layer shear is in the
25-35 kt range. The better shear is displaced from the better
instability.  A few bands of showers with embedded thunderstorms
may impact the region. The upper level trough begins to dig and
amplify some late in the day which will slow down the actual cold
front. Pops were kept in the chc range during the daytime period.
Max temps get back into the mid and upper 80s in the valleys...and
70s to lower 80s over the hills/mtns. It should be noted that the
degree of cloud cover may reduce sufficient heating for any strong
thunderstorm threat.

Wed night...The front slowly makes progress across upstate NY. The
positively tilted h500 trough axis remains upstream of the Hudson
River Valley. Pops were increased to high chc and likely values
with increased low-level convergence with the cold front...and
some short-wave energy rotating through the upper trough. The lack
of much sfc based instability will keep the thunder threat
isolated until midnight or so. It will be a humid night with lows
mainly in the 60s with some upper 50s west of the Hudson River
Valley and over the southern Greens.

Thursday...the cold front should be east of western New England by
the mid morning...with the upper level trough axis lagging still
upstream. Isolated to scattered showers will be
possible...especially in the morning into the early pm.
Instability looks less than 250 J/kg especially from the GFS so
the thunder threat was removed from the fcst. The NAM still is a
little higher...but the sfc dewpts look much to high over the
northern zones. Any threat of a showers with the upper level
trough should diminish by the late afternoon. With low to mid
level cold advection ongoing...highs will be close to normal for
the 1st day of September with mid to upper 70s in the valley
areas...and mid 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain.

Thu night...Cooler and drier air moves back into the fcst area.
High pressure builds in from east to southeast Ontario. The H500
trough axis finally moves downstream of the Hudson River Valley.
Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s over most the fcst area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday, a large surface high pressure system extending from Hudson`s
Bay to the upper Great Lakes will bring a continued cool northerly
flow to our area. There is still a sharp upper level trough aloft,
and model RH fields are moist, so Friday may start out with some
cloudiness. Upper level heights rise during the day so more in the
way of sunshine is expected by afternoon. Temperatures will be near
normal for early September.

The Labor Day holiday weekend looks mainly fair with cool mornings
and mild to warm afternoons as high pressure anchors over New
England. There could be some radiational fog in favored sheltered
valleys and locations near bodies of water each night, but sunny,
warm afternoons are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly clear skies will continue through the night with just some
high cirrus clouds.

With good radiational cooling conditions in place tonight, fog
development expected at KPSF/KGFL starting around 07Z or 08Z. At
KALB...VFR conditions should persist with clear skies and light
or calm winds overnight into early Tuesday morning. Some fog is
possible at KPOU and MVFR vsby around sunrise is included the
KPOU TAF.

Any fog will dissipate by 13Z Tuesday, allowing for mostly sunny
skies with VFR conditions. Just a few passing diurnal cu and thin
cirrus clouds are expected. Winds on Tuesday will initially be
light and variable, becoming south to southwest around 5 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night to Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will bring sunshine and seasonable
temperatures to the region today.  The surface high will move off
the New England Coast tonight with clouds increasing from the west.
A slow moving cold front and an upper level disturbance will bring
the next threat of showers and thunderstorm to eastern New York and
western New England Wednesday into Thursday.

The relative humidity values will lower to 35 to 50 percent this
afternoon...and then recover to 75 to 100 percent tonight. In the
more humid air mass the RH values will only lower to 40 to 60
percent Wednesday afternoon.

The winds will be variable in direction at 5 mph or less
today...and will be light to calm tonight. The Winds will be
south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are anticipated the next 5 days ending Saturday.

High pressure will control our weather into tonight with dry
conditions. A cold front and an upper level disturbance will move
across the hydro service area Wednesday into Thursday morning with showers
and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Total rainfall amounts will
range from a tenth to a third of an inch with some locally higher
amounts.

Dry weather returns Thursday night into the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...OKeefe/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...OKeefe/Wasula



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