Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 241942
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Soggy and damp weather will be on the increase late tonight into
Tuesday morning as coastal low moves up the east coast. A widespread
rainfall will occur across the area lingering into Wednesday.  Then
a cold front is forecast to approach toward the end of this week
with additional chances for wet weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT, Satellite imagery reveals mostly sunny skies
from around the Capital District northward this afternoon, with
high and mid level clouds moving across areas south of Albany,
especially Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield counties. Still a
rather mild afternoon, with temperatures in the 60s to lower
70s. Low levels are still quite dry, with dewpoints in the 30s
and 40s.

Clouds will gradually increase from south to north this evening
into the overnight hours, as a vertically stacked low pressure
system slowly tracks north along the Carolina coast. Even though
there are echoes on the radar as far north as the lower Hudson
Valley already, rainfall is not reaching the ground as the low
levels are very dry. Observations indicate the closest rainfall
reaching the surface is across southeast PA, so it will take
several hours to saturate the column. Therefore, will only
mention chance pops spreading from south to north from around
midnight to sunrise Tuesday, with likely pops shortly after
sunrise.

Much of Tuesday will feature periods of rain, mainly light in
intensity across our region. The heavier rain expected where the
best forcing and upper level diffluence will be, positioned
across Long Island and central/east New England with a
persistent southeast fetch off the Atlantic. Still, it will be a
cloudy, damp and cool day across eastern New York and western
New England. After a few mild days, temperatures will only reach
the upper 40s to mid 50s. Easterly winds will increase as well,
with gusts between 30-40 mph developing in favored areas of the
southern Greens, northern Berkshires and northern Taconics.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Nearly vertically stacked low continues to track northward along the
east coast of the CONUS as southeast flow of magnitudes 40-50kts
advect higher moisture into most of the region.  There will likely
be some enhancements into the northwest hills of CT and Catskills
where additional rainfall totals will likely be enhanced.
Furthermore, with these wind magnitudes, portions of the Taconics,
Berkshires and southern Greens may experience some wind channeling
for slightly higher magnitudes at the surface.  Either way, not
expecting any headlines at this time with respect to winds or rain.
Overnight lows will be chilly with mainly 40s throughout the region.

Wednesday, this coastal low while initially slow moving will begin
to track northeast and increase in forward speed through the day
where the best lift and deformation/TROWAL will be primarily along
and east of the Hudson River.  Additional rainfall amounts appear to
be light at this time as please refer to the hydrology portion of
this discussion for further details.  A rather cloudy and damp day
remains in the forecast as we will shade closer to the cooler side
of the MOS guidance.

Wednesday night, due to the aforementioned faster timing of this low
will also speed up the ending time of the PoPs/Wx with drying
conditions from west to east through the evening hours.  However,
low level moisture will be tough to dissipate per the point
soundings from available guidance.  With that said, due to the
cooler highs expected earlier in the day, we will favor the cooler
side for overnight lows with upper 40s across the terrain to lower
50s for valley locations.

Thursday, could be a rather mild day as the coastal low tracks
further northeast away from the region as a narrow short wave ridge
axis slides across.  Main question will be cloud coverage as some
stratus may linger below the subsidence inversion, mainly across
western New England.  For now, best chance for late April sunshine
will be along and western of the Hudson as low level southerly flow
increases.  The NAM is the mildest with H850 temperatures near +20C
with the other available guidance about 5 degrees cooler as we will
favor the ensemble blend with mainly 70s and cooler mid-upr 60s for
western New England.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
This will be an active weather period with temperatures well above
normal...and a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.  A cold
front will be at our doorstep toward Friday morning. This front
will become quasi-stationary just south of our forecast zones
for the balance of the period. The proximity of this frontal
boundary to our zones should keep enough instability in place to
warrant at least occasional rumbles of thunder. Some days will
be cloudier than others...but relative humidities will be on the
rise.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through much of the 24 hour TAF
period, although clouds will gradually increase from south to
north as a low pressure system along the coast of the Carolinas
slowly tracks northward. Light rain is expected to develop
around or shortly after sunrise at the KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
terminals, as it will take time to saturate the lower part of
the atmosphere due to very dry air in place initially.
Conditions expected to deteriorate to MVFR within around three
hours or so after steadier rain begins towards late Tuesday
morning.

Winds will be northeast around 5 kt initially, becoming easterly
around 10 kt by Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Clouds with periods of rain developing through the mid week period
to further reduce fire weather related concerns.

Clouds increase tonight along with chances of rain developing from
south to north overnight and through Tuesday.  As the coastal low
tracks along the eastern seaboard, the soggy weather is expected to
linger through Wednesday.  This will keep relative humidities up to
between 70 and 90 percent tonight, and be around 70 percent through
Tuesday.  Percentages increases Tuesday night at or above 80
percent.

Light and variable winds becoming northeast to east winds will
continue tonight. The flow will become more easterly Tuesday with
wind speeds increasing to 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Chances for rain will be on the increase late tonight into Tuesday
morning as coastal low moves up the east coast. A widespread
rainfall will occur across the area lingering into Wednesday. QPF
amounts are anticipated to range from about a third of an inch to
around an inch across the forecast area from northwest to southeast
tonight through Wednesday. A brief break in the wet weather is
expected Thursday before cold front approaches and moves through
Thursday night into Friday bringing chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the area.  Minimal river responses are expected at
this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

www.weather.gov/albany



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