Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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694
FXUS61 KBGM 221735
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING VARIABLE
SKIES THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. COOL WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
COOL WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
925 AM UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A THIN BAND OF CLOUDS NOW MOVING
THROUGH JUST SOUTH OF PENN YAN. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, STILL
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. BEHIND THE FRONT MOSTLY DRY, BUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE UP OVER THE TUG HILL. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO RAISE TEMPS A
BIT TODAY. TEMPS ARE ALREADY RUNNING IN THE MID 50S, ONLY A FEW
DEGREES SHORT OF SOME OF OUR MAX TEMPS. WITH FULL MIXING UP TO 700
MB AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WE SHOULD TOUCH 60 IN MANY AREAS. WITH
CAA THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER TEMPS MAY HOLD STEADY IF NOT EVEN FALL
A TOUCH OVER CNY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY... PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID-
AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO STILL
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S OVER CENTRAL NY AND IN
THE LOW 60S FOR MOST OF NE PA.

FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING / MIXING AND ALSO AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX.
SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR OUT. THUS, A GOOD BUT NOT PERFECT SET UP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SFC HIGH WILL STILL CENTERED A BIT TO THE
WEST OVER WESTERN PA. NEVERTHELESS, AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -3C AND DO EXPECT
WINDS TO BE RELAXING OVERNIGHT. THUS, STILL EXPECTING LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 30 TO 35 RANGE WITH A FEW ISOLATED UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE UPGRADED AREA IN
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AND ALSO ADDED ONONDAGA AND CAYUGA
COUNTIES TO WARNING. REMAINING ZONES NOW UNDER FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WX...SFC HIPRES HAS SLID EAST
SAT NGT AND TTHOUGH CHILLY...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE RISK
OF FROST DESPITE THE CLR SKIES. TEMPS REBOUND ON SUNDAY TO NEAR
NRML AS SUN CONTS AND THE UPR RDG BLDS. SOME HI CLDS PSBL LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WRM FNT BEGINS TO MVE NEWRD.

LATE SUN NGT INTO MON STRENGTHENING COLD FNT NOW DRAPED OVER THE
AREA. SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT UP FLOW DVLPS NORTH OF THE AREA BLDG
HIPRES WHILE A LWR AND MID LVL SW FLOW CONTS TO STRENGTHEN
RESULTING IN A GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW TO DVLP SHWRS AND ISLTD TRWS.FNT
IS SLOW TO MVE MON AND SHD CONT THE PSBLTY OF PCPN THRU THE END OF
THE SHRT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FNT FNLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MON NGT LVG WRM AND HUMID AIR
OVER THE REGION. SW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE
WHILE DAYTIME HTG HELPS DVLP LIFT SO DESPITE BEING UNDER HIPRES
THE RISK OF SHWRS AND TRWS WILL CONT INTO THE XTNDD PD.

REALLY LTL CHG THRU THE PD AS THE FNT OVER THE MIDWEST TRUDGES
VERY SLOWLY EAST. UPR RDG IN THE WRN ATLANTIC STUBBORNLY RESISTS
THE FNT AND SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHUNTS IT OFF TO THE NW. SO...
CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS CONTS INTO THU... WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
OVER THE WEST AND NRN ZONES. WHILE CONTG ABV NRML...TEMPS WILL
TEND TO FALL LTR IN THE PD AS A SLOW INCRS IN CLDS AND MOSITURE
WILL LIMT HTG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  SCT TO BKN (ESPECIALLY
KBGM SOUTH) CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AROUND 5KFT. SKC
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT MINS DO DROP BELOW CROSSOVER
TEMP AT KELM SO FOG POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. RIGHT NOW
IT APPEARS WE WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG. IF WE HAD FOG THE TIMING
WOULD BE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT-SUN...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ009-017-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ015-016.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...HEDEN



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