Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 231942
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
342 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cloudy sky will persist this morning with only isolated
showers. However, showers and thunderstorms will become
likely, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with
locally heavy rainfall possible. After some more showers and
storms Monday, the weather looks drier and cooler for Tuesday
and Wednesday, before rain chances increase again Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM EDT Update...
Updated pops in the forecast as confidence has increased that
we could see a heavy rainfall event across the region. Decided
to issue a flash flood watch for all of our NEPA counties and
Central Southern Tier, NY, Western Catskills and the Susquehanna
Region. PWAT values has risen to 1.5 inches, SB CAPE values
range from 1000 to 500 J/KG, 0-6 KM Bulk shear is around 40
knots. This should be enough for thunderstorm development and
continuation.

The big picture overall is that a well defined shortwave
currently located over the Great Lakes will drop south and its
attendant sfc low will shift a sfc boundary/warm front north
this afternoon across central NY/northeast PA. As this occurs,
embedded waves within the SW flow aloft will help initiate
showers and thunderstorms along this feature which will be aided
by the right entrance of the upper lvl jet. So far SB CAPE
values are slow to rise but if we can manage a few breaks in the
cloud coverage those low values should rise to around 1000 J/kg
or higher.

As this boundary lifts north this afternoon/evening, a semi-
decent low-lvl jet will develop around 850mb which may be able
to transport enough low-lvl moisture into central NY to create
heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall was previously though to only be
a threat over NEPA, now it looks to be a threat over the whole
CWA late this evening through 3AM.

Showers are expected to become become more widespread across
the region after 5 PM. SPC currently has most of the CWA I-81
and west under a slight risk and NEPA. Gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are the main threats. We have the wind profiles for
severe weather to develop but may not have steep enough lapse
rates or enough instability.

Showers will likely continue though the overnight period.

Highs today will be upper 70s-lower 80s, which is right around
climatology though it will be humid; followed by lows in the
60s tonight.

By Monday morning a secondary low will become well defined off
the east coast and the sfc low that brought the warm front
across the region on Sunday will start to weaken. The overall
system then will become stacked and the low will just become
washed out over the region. While it does this, there will still
be a chance for showers and thunderstorms over the region as
cool air aloft, steep lapse rates makes a great environment for
this to occur. Temps Monday will vary greatly depending on
east/west of I-81. I-81 and west will rise into the mid/upper
70s, while I-81 and east will mostly be in the 60s and struggle
to reach the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 pm update...
Main concerns in the short term are focused around the exiting
upper short wave and inverted surface trough ewd and dissipating
showers and storms from west to east Monday night/Tuesday
morning...then a dry period through Wednesday, with only a
slight chance of a shower or weak storm Wed afternoon.

The upper trough axis will be directly overhead Monday night,
along with an area of colder temperatures aloft capable of
producing steep lapse rates and interacting with the low level
forcing from an inverted trough to produce scattered rain
showers and isolated t-storms. Deep layer moisture will be
limited or slowly decreasing during this time, so convection
should have a hard time developing. Plus, with the loss of
daytime heating, most of the instability should be quickly
ramping down through the evening, and remain fairly stable in
the boundary layer through the night. May see a few lingering
showers Tuesday morning across the Catskills and Mohawk valley
area, but the overall trend should be to dry out.

Weather conditions should remain dry Tue night and Wed morning
with the threat of valley fog the only concern. Will see a ridge
of high pressure build across the region on Wed, and most of the
day should be quiet, with sunny skies in the morning and diurnal
cumulus in the afternoon, along with a few showers popping.

Highs will top out in the upper 60s and 70s on Tue and Wed, with
overnight lows in the 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 pm update...
Not much change in the long term with a cold front still
expected to move across the region Thursday and early Friday
with more showers and storms possible. Behind the front going
into the weekend conditions will dry out and remain quiet most
of the time with day time highs in the 70s and lower 80s...and
overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This afternoon will start off as VFR but flight conditions will
deteriorate as showers and thunderstorms are expected to become
widespread along a draped warm front hanging across the region.
Expect these showers to be MVFR. Flight conditions will become
low end MVFR/fuel alternate after 00Z at all TAF sites and then
become IFR at sites south of the warm front. Showers may become
especially heavy at times through sunrise. Confidence is to low
attm to place IFR visbys in the TAF to capture the heaviest
showers. IFR showers will likely be between 00 and 06Z. Showers
may linger through the next 24 hours.

Winds will be light and variable through 12Z Mon, then become
southerly around 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday & Tuesday ...Periodic restrictions in showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday & Friday...Chance of showers-storms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday
     morning for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday
     morning for NYZ024-025-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...KAH



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