Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 281915
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE CWA HOWEVER DAYTIME
HEATING INDUCED CU HAS LED TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP FOR TONIGHT. WE DO INDICATE PATCHY VALLEY
FOG IN THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING HOWEVER SINCE THE WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
START TO STRENGTHEN FOG WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS DENSE AND
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS PAST MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR SATURDAY, MAINLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING GIVE WAY TO SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE
THOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE GREATEST OVER
CENTRAL NY WITH LESS OVER NE PA. THE HIGH SHIFTING OFF TO THE S/E
WILL HELP TEMPS TO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

REMAINING WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH 850 TEMPS IN
THE 14C TO 16C RANGE SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE INCREASED A BIT FOR SUNDAY BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. BOTH THE 12Z EURO AND GFS SHOW A TROF MOVING
INTO THE AREA WITH STORM CHANCES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, WITH CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE NY,
WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND MAINLY FROM SOUTHWEST NY INTO NORTHERN
PA. WE WILL HAVE A BIT OF A MID LEVEL CAP BETWEEN 10KFT AND 15KFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. FOR NOW I INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE (20%) RANGE FOR MOST OF NY STATE, WITH 30% POPS OVER THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES. RIDGING BEHIND THE TROF WILL LEAD TO A DRY
AND WARM MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

MAINLY DRY AND WARM, A REAL NICE END TO SUMMER! THE TREND FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES IN THAT ANY SUPPORT FOR AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A HINT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
HAS DIMINISHED. 500 MB HEIGHTS OF 590 DM+ THROUGH MID WEEK SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OUR WARM SPOTS TOUCHING 90 A
GOOD POSSIBILITY. PERHAPS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY, WE MAY SEE A SHOT AT SOME RAIN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z EURO
KEEPS US DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANY FRONT REMAINING OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THE GFS IS QUICKER, WITH A THURSDAY ARRIVAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF CU AROUND 4-6
KFT WHICH WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND MIST TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN. WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER SO NOT CONFIDENT IN DENSE
FOG...THUS, HAVE INDICATED IFR WITH 1SM BR FOR KELM IN TAF.
ELSEWHERE, VFR TONIGHT. MIST/FOG LIFTS AT KELM BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY WITH OTHERWISE VFR SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. GENERALLY VFR WITH
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING WITH
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM AS USUAL.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...PCF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.