Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 290551
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
151 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure developing along the mid-Atlantic coast will spread
showers across northeast Pennsylvania tonight and Friday morning.
Farther north showers will be scattered or isolated. A weak ridge
of high pressure will build across the area later Friday into
Saturday with dry weather, the low pressure will spread some
showers back across the area on Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1000 PM EDT Update...
A flash flood watch still continues for the region this evening
and will last through noon tomorrow. Coverage of showers is
slightly less than expected thus pulled back on pops for the next
few hours. Adjusted temps to also match current obs. Increased the
low min temp as temps currently are quite warm across the region.
Concerns for the forecast is how far north the precip will reach
central NY, latest model guidance hints that precip may be
slightly further south than previously thought. Will update during
the overnight shift if needed. For more information please read
the previous forecast discussion below.

Previous forecast discussion...
A wave of low pressure will track up the Ohio valley this
evening, with low pressure developing along the east coast near
New Jersey late tonight. A large area of showers over central and
southern Pa will spread east-northeast and will effect the Poconos
and points southward this evening. Meanwhile farther to the north
any shower activity will be scattered or isolated this evening,
with dry weather from the Finger Lakes northward overnight. There
will be the potential for some localized heavy rain with any
stronger convective showers that develop over the Poconos this
evening, then with a period of steadier and heavier rain late
tonight into Friday morning as low pressure moves northeast along
the mid- Atlantic coast. Have issued a flood watch for Luzerne
county east across the Poconos to cover for heavy rain potential.
Impacts will mainly be over poor drainage areas, with flooding on
streams, creeks and major river systems not expected. Rain should
taper off to scattered showers by Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms will linger across the
area Friday afternoon. Storms are not expected to be severe with
only modest instability and weak wind fields keeping storms
disorganized. Dry weather will return to the entire area Friday
morning, then the chance of showers will increase again on
Saturday as another wave approaches from the Ohio Valley.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday night
and continue through Sunday as an upper level trough slowly
progresses east across the eastern Great Lakes to the mid-
Atlantic.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper-level ridging will be building east across the area during
this period. Scattered showers may linger into Monday in
association with a weak upper trough over the eastern U.S., then
conditions should trend warmer and dryer Tuesday into Thursday as
the ridge builds east across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain showers are continuing across NE PA early this morning and
will likely expand in coverage slightly to the north and
intensity through the next 5 to 7 hours. AVP will likely be the
only terminal to receive rain with the northern edge of the
precip shield just south and se of BGM. All central NY terminals
will remain VFR. MVFR ceilings and visbys may be possible through
the morning in NEPA. There will be a chance for embedded lightning
with all showers but confidence is to low attm to place in
taf...so kept -SHRA at AVP. Main swath of rain moves out by mid to
late morning...however there is a chance of more scattered
convective showers and weak storms from around 17-22Z. Not
confident enough at this point to add to latest forecast.

Winds will be light and variable through 12Z, shortly after
sunrise winds will become N around 6-12 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night...Possible restrictions with valley fog.

Sat - Tues... Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for PAZ044-047-048-072.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BJT/KAH



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