Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 050154
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
954 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH MORE RAIN
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAY`S HEATING WAS
LEADING TO THE DEMISE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA AT THIS TIME. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT, I DON`T SEE
ANY FORCING JUST A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS SC NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. NEXT FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT WAS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS LOW WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
THU AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT OF THIS THROUGH THURSDAY. BEST
FORCING WILL BE SOUTH INTO PA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SO
HAVE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY THU AND SLGHT CHANCE
FARTHER NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THIS UNSETTLED COOL EARLY MAY PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ROTATING TO THE N/NW AROUND
THE LOW...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO EITHER END OR TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN.

A LOBE OF THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NWD
ACROSS ERN PA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND BRING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ACROSS NE PA. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND BRING WITH IT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE NE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WEAK RIDGING AND A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN
TO EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
RAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE DRIER.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IF CLOUD COVER
SCATTERS OUT EARLY ENOUGH AND REMAINS MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A HIGH SUN ANGLE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S.
THE NICE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
LOOMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPR LOW AND ATTENDANT
SFC LOW... WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NY AND PA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS... HOWEVER IT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING
SHOWERS TO THE REGION WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION BY TUES
EVENING. GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY DIFFERS ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT OVERALL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN STARTING TUES EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MIXING WILL RESULT IN
LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT MIST. INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL ALLOW CIGS TO IMPROVE INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY DURING THE MORNING. AT KRME/KSYR/KITH, CIGS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MVFR/ALT REQUIRED CATEGORY THIS EVENING. AT KELM, CIGS
WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 06Z WITH IFR POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AT KBGM/KAVP, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT ALT
REQUIRED WITH IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. ALL TAF SITES WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z- 16Z.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AROUND 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SAT NGT - SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONT.

MON...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...RRM



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