Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 051440
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SUMMER AIR. A
DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK WILL FADE BEHIND CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...LAST VESTIGES OF FOG BURNING OFF OVER NE PA LVG
MAINLY CLR SKIES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY CVR THIS
UPDATE...NO OTR CHGS. PRVS DISC BLO.

4 AM UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS...AND CONSULTATION WITH WFO STATE
COLLEGE...WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN CO. NEW YORK. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED BY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. DENSE FOG CONDITIONS HAVE ALLEVIATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
CNTRL NY WHERE EARLIER FOG HAD MORPHED INTO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS
ENVIRONMENT. WE SUSPECT THAT WE HAVE MORE OF A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME...AND THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME OF THE WORST FOG
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPIDER WEB OF ELEVATED INTERSTATES THAT CROSS
THROUGH THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS TO PROVIDE SOME HIGHLIGHT TO AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY
STILL BE OUT THERE BETWEEN OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS CNY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINFALL HAS CAUSED AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL ALL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
THE BALANCE OF TODAY FORECAST TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM.

925 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 20C...AND GOOD MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST A MAINLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA...NOW PARKED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD OUR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA FROM SW-NE BY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING TO ADD LAYERS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS MAY TEMPER THE FOG SITUATION A BIT...BUT
WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN OUR DIRECTION...
BUT WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TEAM UP WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL SUPPORT TO AT LEAST TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDER...ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR NEPA ZONES BY MONDAY
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLY WORKING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NY ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THESE
REASONS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
POINTS EAST.

THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR CUT ON TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MOVING EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
FALLING ACROSS WESTERN NY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT SOME
POINT IN THAT 24 HOURS...WE COULD HAVE A SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON
WHERE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA HAS VERY LITTLE
CHANCE OF PRECIP...WHILE CHANCES LINGER IN THE EAST...AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THAT`S
HARD TO CONVEY IN OUR FORECAST METHODOLOGY WITH ANY CLARITY...BUT
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE IT SO IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS NOTED
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOS GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH LATEST 00Z MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT GRIDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

415 PM SATURDAY UPDATE...
BETTER CONFIDENCE NOW FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT...TO PASS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SHEAR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE
ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE FRONT OVERALL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO POSE MUCH OF A HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME...BECAUSE OF PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT LIMITING AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL...AND INABILITY OF THE FRONT TO HARNESS DIURNAL
HEATING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA /SO LIMITED INSTABILITY/.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING...PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. ONE SUCH WAVE MAY SKIM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS-THUNDER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME WILL
LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
BROAD YET NOT VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY.

WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
BE A LITTLE SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY /ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY
WEDNESDAY/...BUT BY THE WEEKEND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP
REALIZE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-15Z.

THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY FOG COULD FORM. THUS...WE`VE
INDICATED A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KELM ONLY...AT THIS
EARLY JUNCTURE.

LIGHT SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 00Z MON.

.OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY TUESDAY...THEN A POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS FROM LATER TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...ABS/MDP
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP



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