Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 251839
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
239 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms
through early Friday. High pressure and warm air will build back
into NY and PA for the weekend, before another frontal system
spreads thunderstorms into our region late Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A series of weak short waves will rotate around the northern edge
of a strong upper ridge along the mid-Atlantic coast through
tonight bringing chances for a few showers to the area through
tonight. The first of these little systems is passing across the
eastern half of the area this afternoon with scattered showers.
Instability has not been sufficient for any thunder with these
showers although a few rumbles can`t be ruled out later this
afternoon mainly east of I-81.

Expect a break in rain chances late this afternoon into early this
evening then another wave will approach from the west later this
evening along with a weak surface cold front. Some destabilization
is expected ahead of this system through early this evening as a
very moist low-level airmass advects eastward ahead of the front
with dew points into the lower 70s in most places. Expect MLCAPE
values to reach to near 1000 J/kg by early this evening in most
places with deep layer shear around 25 kts. These factors along
with generally weak large-scale forcing should produce a few
thunderstorms across the area this evening however the severe risk
should be marginal at best with storms struggling to organize in
the weak shear environment. High resolution models appear to be
showing some organized convection over western NY and northwest Pa
early this evening however the convection appears to either
diminish, becoming disorganized or dive southeast across central
Pa as it moves toward our area later in the evening.

After some left-over low clouds early Friday morning Friday looks
to be a nice sunny day with lowering humidity as temperatures
climb to between 80 and 85 degrees with dew points falling through
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build across the northeastern U.S. Friday night
through Saturday, bringing fair skies and gradually warmer
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another storm system will move through southern Ontario province
on Sunday. An associated front will set off scattered
thunderstorms across NY, with a lesser chance over PA, late Sunday
into Monday.

An upper level ridge will transition to a low amplitude trough
over the northeastern states by mid week, bringing unsettled
weather back to our region.

Temperatures will average above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers are moving across the eastern part of the area
early this afternoon with coverage too low to include in any TAF
site, however not out of the question that a brief shower or
sprinkle could occur at BGM/AVP through about 20z. Expect
additional showers and storms to move across the area this evening
and have included a tempo group for these between 00z and 06z.
Otherwise conditions will be VFR through this evening. Areas of
MVFR and localized IFR clouds will develop late tonight, then
skies will clear with VFR conditions at all of the TAF sites by
late morning  Friday.

winds will be southwest at 5 to 10 kts this afternoon into this
evening becoming northwest at 5 to 10 kts late tonight and Friday.

OUTLOOK...

Friday Ngt through Sunday...VFR.

Monday...Restrictions possible in showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MSE


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