Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 011731
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1231 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.MID-DAY UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION...

SHORT TERM...
This afternoon through tonight.

Tame weather, with enjoyable low dew points and temperatures
continues--

We remain on the dry side of a stacked low pressure system that
has now moved back north, centered along the Indiana/Ohio state
line as of noon. Some moderation in the pattern will send
afternoon temperatures into the low 80s (F) for most. Upstream,
there`s a southern-Plains shortwave cresting an upper ridge axis
extending from Mexico into the Rockies. This weather feature will
bring an increase in moisture aloft, of which will begin arriving
later today in the form of cirrus clouds (we`ll have areas of
fair-weather cumulus, stratocumulus this afternoon as well).
Coverage of cirrus will be few to start, but should increase
heading into tonight. Thus, overnight temperatures are progged at
a few degrees warmer than the past two mornings.

89/GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are forecast today into Sunday; varied presence of
clouds over time, light afternoon surface winds becoming calm
tonight--

An upper-level shortwave over the southern Plains this morning is
expected to continue east, and move into our region tonight and
Sunday. An increase in high-level clouds is expected to begin
later today, with varied coverage of cirrus late-PM into
tomorrow. There will be some afternoon cumulus in areas as well,
with breezes around 5-knots trending to calm tonight.

89/GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry weather is expected through the next 7 days. No fire weather
concerns are anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 407 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016/

LONG TERM...

Sunday through Friday.

Temperatures are forecast to moderate through at least the
beginning of the upcoming work week, as heights inch up with the
departure of the upper level low. A more progressive upper level
trough will bring a short window of opportunity for small rain
chances to the northern counties on Thursday. Beyond that, it
appears that either an upper level ridge, or a largely zonal upper
level flow, will help keep the Gulf effectively shut off through
the remainder of the forecast period.

All signs and guidance continues to strongly suggest that Hurricane
Matthew will stay well east of us, and not have any direct
influence on our weather other the next 7 days.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     79  55  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    79  56  83  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  81  58  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  82  58  85  60  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      81  58  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      82  58  85  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  83  58  87  61  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        82  56  85  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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