Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 272003
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
303 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Tuesday.

Very unstable conditions have developed over central Alabama this
afternoon as surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
to lower 80s, with cold air advection aloft as the upper trof
axis approaches from the west. An upper low centered over eastern
Missouri will track eastward overnight and push a trof axis into
north Alabama. Forcing ahead of trof axis will help maintain
convection development throughout the night despite loss of
daytime heating. Best rain chances overnight will be along and
north of I-20 with little or no rain expected south of I-85. The
upper trof axis will become aligned in an east to west direction
across central Alabama on Tuesday. Weak forcing along the trof
axis will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly
during the heating of the day. 0-6km Bulk Shear and mid level
lapse rates will be much lower on Tuesday and no severe storms
expected.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Sunday.

Wednesday continues to look warm and drier as a 500 mb ridge
amplifies over the region ahead of yet another upper trough which
will affect our area on Thursday into Thursday night. Confidence
is slightly lower than 24 hours ago regarding the threat for
severe storms due to model inconsistency with the upper trough
and a less impressive warm sector. We will continue to maintain a
low-end threat for damaging winds, large hail, and maybe a few
brief tornadoes.

After a break on Friday and Saturday, the hits keep on coming.
Another strong storm system could impact the area late Sunday into
Monday. A severe weather threat cannot be ruled out, especially if
the system takes a more northerly track, reducing the chance of
coastal convection blocking the inland progression of instability.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

The area remains situated between surface high pressure located off
the Carolina coastline and a low pressure system across northwest
Arkansas. Expect southerly low level winds, breezy at times, this
afternoon and evening. Clouds will increase and lower this afternoon
into tonight with SHRA and TSRA as storms develop and move northeast
across the area. Overnight isolated SHRA will remain possible with
low CIG`s expected at most terminals. CIG`s and VIS will gradually
improve toward the end of the period.

05


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Central Alabama will remain in a warm and moist pattern through the
week, with the highest rain chances today and Thursday. Critical
fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  78  55  81  57 /  60  40  10  20  10
Anniston    61  78  57  82  58 /  50  40  10  20  10
Birmingham  62  79  59  83  60 /  60  40  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  63  80  60  85  60 /  60  40  10  10  10
Calera      63  78  60  84  60 /  50  30  10  20  10
Auburn      61  77  60  83  59 /  20  30  10  20  10
Montgomery  63  81  61  86  59 /  20  30  10  10  10
Troy        61  81  60  86  58 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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