Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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145
FXUS64 KBMX 102148
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
348 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

NICE SUNNY...ALBEIT COOL...DAY OUT THERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
WEST TN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE BUT THERE`S NOT MUCH
REACHING THE GROUND...PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES. MANY HIRES MODELS SHOW
THIS LIGHT PRECIP BAND MOVING INTO NE AL AROUND OR JUST BEFORE 00Z
THIS EVENING. THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO DON`T
BELIEVE WE`LL SEE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS MAINLY
CHEROKEE COUNTY...AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
THAT IS ALREADY TAKING PLACE. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT
QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S
IN MOST AREAS...BUT THE WIND WON`T BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR. THE
ELEVATED WNW WINDS WE`VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL FINALLY
BE LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT.

19

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...ALLOWING FOR WEAK WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WELL TO OUR NORTH...A
MUCH STRONGER SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH BRISK NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY WILL FALL INTO THE
20S AREAWIDE.

HERE IS WHERE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES. MODEL SOLUTIONS
HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT LEADING TO A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. IN ORDER TO NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH EACH MODEL
FLUCTUATION...WE WILL HOLD STEADY WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR
NOW. AS WE KNOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
TEMPERATURE CAN MAKE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND/OR THUNDER POTENTIAL.

WITH A WEDGE SETTING UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND ITS
INTRUSION OF DRY AND COOL AIR...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FROZEN
PRECIP AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE...THAT FROZEN PRECIP COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE HAS
BEEN A WARMING TREND WITH THE MODELS TODAY...THAT WOULD LESSEN THE
CHANCES OF FROZEN PRECIP...BUT...ALONG WITH A VARYING TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW...WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER. OF NOTE...THE SHIFT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM COLD TO WARM
IS RATHER LARGE...SO LARGE THAT IT SEEMS TOO UNLIKELY. MOST
LIKELY IS A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE WILL OCCUR. UNFORTUNATELY...THAT
COULD PUT THE AREA IN ANOTHER BORDERLINE LIQUID/FROZEN PRECIP
SCENARIO FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THIS EVENT.

WE WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL MORE SHIFTS IN THE MODELS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THEY CONVERGE ON ONE SOLUTION. UNTIL THERE IS
AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE...GOING TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WEATHER
GROUPS.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. WNW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KTS THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE
RETURNS TOMORROW AS A DRY FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. A WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED BUT 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10KTS. AFTER A WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY
MIX...HOWEVER A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     23  52  29  53  28 /  10   0   0  10   0
ANNISTON    25  54  30  55  30 /   0   0  10  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  28  56  32  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  28  60  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CALERA      29  58  34  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUBURN      29  58  37  59  35 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  29  64  38  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TROY        29  66  40  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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