Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 210459
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1059 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

After a cold start this morning, Central Alabama has warmed into
the mid 50s to mid 60s this afternoon. Surface high pressure
becomes centered off the Carolina coast tonight, allowing for a
weak wedge to set up across Georgia and into east Central Alabama.
Meanwhile, low level winds become southerly, pulling weak
moisture northward and lifting it over the surface easterly winds
and wedge. This will allow for some clouds to spread into
portions of southeast and east Central Alabama late tonight.
Temperatures will range from the mid 30s in the west and far
north, where skies will be clear, to the lower 40s in the east.

14

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Monday.

Overall, the synoptic pattern doesn`t chance much through the
extended forecast. We`re under a highly amplified pattern with
ridging across the Western US and a trough over the Eastern US. On
Tuesday, our winds do shift to a more southerly flow as the surface
high pressure is pushed out into the Atlantic. This could allow for
some very modest moisture return during the day ahead of a weak
shortwave impulse that moves through the base of the deeper trough
over the Gulf States. As this shortwave moves through, I can`t rule
out some light shower activity, so have kept mention for a slight
chance to chance PoPs generally south and east of the I-85 corridor
Tuesday and Tuesday night. At the very least, expect increased
cloud cover. The rest of Central AL should remain dry. By
Wednesday, the axis of the main trough has moved over Alabama,
which will mark a shift in the winds back to a northerly flow for
the rest of the week as the trough axis slides east of our area.
So, even with models coming into better agreement with another
shortwave moving through the base of the trough Wednesday into
Thursday, it looks like Central AL will be cut-off from any
meaningful moisture return, limiting our chances of rainfall. A
weak cold front associated with the shortwave could lead to
slightly below average temperatures for Thanksgiving. Central AL
remains cut-off from any moisture return through the weekend, so I
have removed any PoPs in the forecast Wednesday through Monday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions will continue for some with only cirrus on
satellite at this hour at present across Central Alabama. With
the ridge weakening over Alabama and the center pushing to the
east toward the West Atlantic off the Carolinas, this is setting
up return flow moisture for late tonight into Tuesday across the
far eastern portions of the state. MVFR stratus cigs will be
possible at TOI before sunrise and ASN/ANB by mid morning. Some
lower clouds could make it to MGM but not as confident there and
will leave out for now.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low rain chances across southeastern Central Alabama Tuesday.
Otherwise dry and cooler conditions expected for the next 7 days.
No fire weather concerns expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     35  61  39  57  34 /   0  10   0   0   0
Anniston    39  62  42  59  36 /   0  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  38  62  42  58  35 /   0  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  35  64  42  60  34 /   0  10   0   0   0
Calera      38  63  42  60  36 /   0  10   0   0   0
Auburn      42  62  47  62  41 /   0  20  10   0   0
Montgomery  38  65  45  64  39 /   0  20  10   0   0
Troy        40  64  48  64  41 /   0  20  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$

14/25/08



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