Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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265
FXUS64 KBMX 281143
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
643 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight.

At the current time, we have a relative vorticity max moving NW
across SW portions of AL. This, combined with some slightly higher
mid level moisture, is leading to the development of some mid/high
clouds across the southern third of the state. Elsewhere, skies are
mostly clear with temps in the low/mid 70s. Expect temps to only
drop another couple of degrees by sunrise.

The upper ridge will remain anchored over Virginia today with ESE
upper level flow across Central Alabama. A pocket of higher mid
level moisture will enter NW AL later today, roughly around midday,
and continue to push southwestward thru the aftn/evening. Also of
note, we`ll see another area of weak upper level energy within the
easterly flow aloft work into eastern portions of AL later in the
afternoon. At this time, it appears the best combination of moisture
and lift for iso/sct convection will occur across roughly the NE
half of the forecast area mid/late afternoon, and have adjusted
hourly pops accordingly. Conditions still appear favorable for some
potential development after 00Z, so will carry some slight chance
pops for the same area thru 03Z for now. It is worth noting that
convection could end from E to W in the evening as the best moisture
and lift translate eastward. Highs will once again be in the low/mid
90s with max heat indices generally in the 98-102 degree range. Will
keep conditions dry area wide overnight with lows in the low/mid 70s.

19

.LONG TERM...

Warm and overall dry conditions will remain in place as the main
ridge axis will remain firmly parked over the area. At some point
in the extended we will begin to swap back to a southerly flow,
until then the mean flow will be from the east as we remain on
southern side of the high pressure in place. Highs generally in
the 90s with lows in the 70s. Can not rule out an afternoon shower
or storm but coverage will be generally below climatological
numbers through at least midweek with generally just isolated
activity.

The Thursday through the weekend forecast remains one of very low
confidence as we monitor the Gulf of Mexico. Yesterday the models
were disposing of the tropical wave as it moved toward and now
this morning they are really hinting at development once again.
Problem is there still remains a lot of timing and placement
issues. The 12Z Euro yesterday had the system coming right into
Alabama and Florida and providing quite a bit of rain to the area.
With the 00Z runs the GFS was developing the storm but taking it
into the big bend area of Florida, with Alabama seeing minimal
impacts. The latest Euro is also now trending that way this
morning. With that said the system has still YET TO FORM, so there
are still a lot of factors that need to align before any
confidence can come into play. Stay abreast for the latest on
possible tropical development.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

We`ve got a high cloud deck across western and southern portions
of the forecast area this morning, but these should gradually
dissipate thru the morning. Normal cumulus field anticipated this
afternoon with isolated to scattered convection, which could
linger into the evening hours. At this time, the best rain chances
will be across the NE counties so have mentioned VCTS for ANB/ASN
late afternoon. Look for easterly winds at 5-10 kts. For the
overnight period, expect mostly clear skies with light winds.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally dry conditions with above average temperatures will
continue thru midweek, with only isolated afternoon storms each
day. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  71  92  71  92 /  30  20  20  10  10
Anniston    93  71  93  72  93 /  30  20  20  10  10
Birmingham  94  74  94  75  94 /  20  20  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  95  74  94  74  95 /  10  10  20  10  10
Calera      93  73  93  73  93 /  20  20  20  10  10
Auburn      91  72  91  73  91 /  20  20  20  10  20
Montgomery  95  74  95  75  95 /  10  10  20  10  10
Troy        92  72  93  72  93 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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