Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 240433
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1133 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016
For 06Z Aviation.
Expect convection to decrease in coverage and intensity overnight
followed by isolated to scattered convective development on Sunday,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Some low clouds
and possible patchy fog may develop across our southern counties
toward daybreak on Sunday. Expect any development to dissipate by
mid morning with daytime heating. Lows tonight will fall into the
mid 60`s across the area followed by highs reaching into the mid
90`s again on Sunday.
Monday through Saturday.
The rather typical summer time pattern continues. The westerlies
remain near the US/Canadian border while ridging is dominant in
the south. The model suite was in fair agreement today with a
decent trough riding through the flow Monday and Tuesday. This
helps deteriorate the ridge over the southeast, putting us in that
challenging "weakness" area. The eastern ridge cell eventually
works its way toward central Alabama Wednesday and Thursday before
a more significant trough develops over the central Conus next
Low level thickness values and boundary layer temperatures appear
to be a bit lower than we have seen the past few days, so near
normal Alabama summer heat can be expected. Highs generally 90 to
95 and muggy. Maximum heat indices will be near 100 degrees each
afternoon. There is a small chance these numbers will be higher on
Monday and have re-introduced a low confidence for a Heat
Advisory Monday. Rain chances will also be near normal for summer
generally in the 30 to 50 percent range and focused diurnally. It
appears the highest rain chances will be when the trough develops
towards next weekend.
At this time, thunderstorms each day do not look to be organized.
Bulk shear values are low, as would be expect with a generally
light flow through the entire layer. Cape, Dcape, precipitable
water, lapse rates all would indicate moderate wet microburst
potential at best. But since these parameters are highly mesoscale
driven and changeable, will monitor strength each day. But at
this time, only general thunderstorms with a few gusts to near 30
mph, lightning and brief heavy rain.
06Z TAF Discussion.
As expected coverage has decreased and generally just light rain in
the northeast is all that is left. There will be a threat for
MVFR/IFR fog/low clouds begin once again much like the last several
nights. Went with the lowest restrictions at TOI and ANB where IFR
will be possible. MVFR at other sites. Questionable whether BHM will
drop or not. Will not mention BR at this time but monitor . Same
story on Sunday with scattered afternoon VCTS at all sites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next
several days with highs in the 90s. Surface winds will be rather
light and variable. Thunderstorms may produce some gusty winds.
Since surface dew points are so high, critical fire weather
thresholds are not expected to be met with no watches or warnings