Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 100720
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
220 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ON RADAR HAS NOW DISSIPATED. A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL EXIST BUT COVERAGE IS RATHER SPARSE. WITH THE
AMPLE SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STRETCHING SOUTHWARDS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITH IN THE FLOW AROUND THE BROAD SCALE
TROUGH. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES CAN BE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
TO INFLUENCE TODAYS WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES
EASTERN KENTUCKY WESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE PW VALUES
REMAIN HIGH. THEREFORE...HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH PW VALUES DROPPING DOWN BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN 2/3 RDS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY.

THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. THE FRONT BECOMES LESS DEFINED OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND EXPECT FRIDAY-SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AROUND PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND WHERE THE REMNANTS OF FRONT WILL EXIST. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
HEIGHTS ALOFT.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
WORK WEEK BEGINS. MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RETURN ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING DOWN A
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES TO WORK OUT BUT MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT MAKING IT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHRA AT
ANY TERMINAL...AND SHOWERS ARE NOT CURRENTLY THREATENING ANY
TERMINAL. MULTIPLE COULD DECKS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS GENERALLY
ABOVE 4KFT. EXPECT LOWER CLOUD DECKS TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING WITH
HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. IF ANY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS
OCCUR...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP WITH MVFR VIS AT MOST SITES. THINK
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD OR DROPPING
BELOW MVFR.

WEAK FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY. EXPECT FRONT TO BE
SOUTH OF BHM...EET...AND...AND TCL IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL BE AT MGM AND TOI DURING THE AFTERNOON.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  66  90  66  92 /  30  20  10   0  10
ANNISTON    86  69  90  68  92 /  40  20  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  87  70  91  70  93 /  30  20  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  89  69  93  69  95 /  30  20   0   0  10
CALERA      86  70  92  70  94 /  40  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      85  69  90  69  92 /  60  40  20  10  20
MONTGOMERY  88  71  94  70  95 /  60  30  20  10  20
TROY        88  70  92  69  95 /  70  40  30  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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