Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 210912
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
412 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Today and tonight.

Another hot summer day with convection expected once again this
afternoon with afternoon highs in the mid to approaching upper 90s
in the west and south. Focus for the afternoon convection will be
across the south as boundaries from yesterday will be in place
over the area. Storms could be on the stronger side as there will
be plenty of instability to deal with like yesterday.

Continued with isolated to scattered showers through Midnight as
outflows from the late afternoon storms will still interact with
some warmer air as they slide north and south. If we get the
overall coverage as expected we may see some patchy fog in the
south, so will add in for these areas after Midnight.

Outside of the scattered showers and thunderstorms we will flirt
with heat advisory criteria in the western and southern counties
once again. Not enough confidence to issue an advisory at this time
but will need to be re-evaluated this morning with the update to
see if we are going to mix out before the warmest temperatures
make it into the region. Will continue to mention in the HWO for a
low confidence.

16

.LONG TERM...
Saturday through Thursday.

Weak height falls will signal a gradual increase in daily
convective activity from Saturday into the upcoming week. The
highest rain chances could come on Monday/Tuesday with 50-60 POPs
areawide. Temperatures should accordingly trend downward to near
or just below normal for the heart of summer.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Localized light fog is already developing across the area. Expect
additional terminals to show reductions in vis to MVFR by 08-09Z.
Vis reductions will improve with sunrise Friday morning.

The better chance for convection Friday will be across the south,
with the influence of a passing upper level impulse. Isolated storms
are possible across the north as well. Will include tempos for now
at all terminals, until confidence on timing and placement increases.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for
the next several days. There are no fire weather concerns at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  73  92  73  89 /  20  20  40  20  50
Anniston    93  73  91  74  89 /  20  20  40  20  50
Birmingham  94  74  92  76  90 /  20  20  40  20  50
Tuscaloosa  96  75  93  75  92 /  30  20  40  20  50
Calera      94  74  91  74  90 /  30  20  40  20  50
Auburn      93  73  90  73  89 /  30  30  30  20  40
Montgomery  96  74  93  75  92 /  30  40  30  20  50
Troy        94  72  91  73  90 /  40  20  30  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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