Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 071300
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
800 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LET ME WELCOME EVERYONE BACK TO A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. AFTER A COUPLE OF WEEKS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL...WE FINALLY GET BACK TO A
NORMAL SEASON WITH A BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK. IN
FACT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE GFS IS GOING WITH A 594 RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD AND BROADEN OUT ON
SATURDAY...SO EXPECT THE WARMEST READINGS TO BE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH BEGINS TO
SLIDE DOWN THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE TROUGH NEVER REALLY DIGS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL PUT US BACK IN THE FUN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE IN RAINFALL
COVERAGE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. QUESTION THIS FAR OUT WILL BE
WHERE DOES THE BEST NORTHWEST SET UP AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE WILL
THE RIDGE STILL HAVE BY MID WEEK. WE COULD VERY EASILY HAVE
A SCENARIO WHERE EVERYONE HAS A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN...OR JUST THE
EAST HALF OF THE AREA. UNTIL THEN WE WILL GO WITH THE TYPICAL HIT
AND MISS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE PUSHED NORTHWARD OUT OF
MISSISSIPPI...AND HAVE AFFECTED KTCL...AND KEET. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD NOT LAST VERY LONG ONCE MIXING OCCURS WITH THE FULL
SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH VERY LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
REMAIN LIGHT.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MORE TYPICAL
OF SUMMER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
WARMER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  71  92  71  93 /  20  10  20  10  20
ANNISTON    90  71  92  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  92  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  93  73  95  74  96 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      90  73  93  73  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      90  72  92  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  30
MONTGOMERY  93  73  95  74  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
TROY        93  72  96  73  95 /  20  10  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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