Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 260210
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1010 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WILL KEEP IN A LOW POP MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BEGINNING TO SHOW
SOME INDICATIONS OF GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. AFTER DIURNAL CONVECTION
DISSIPATES...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FLAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY/DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST ALTHOUGH
THE AIR MASS WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. CONVECTION
MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAKER FORCING.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. PREFER WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RECENT COOL BIAS OF THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS IS
A RARE PATTERN FOR JULY.

THE UPPER PATTERN ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A LINGER TROUGH OFFSHORE
RESULTING IN A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
02Z RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR SLOWLY
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD
COMPLETELY SHUT OFF CONVECTION BY 04-05Z. VFR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBILITY OF FOG NEAR DAYBREAK...
ESPECIALLY AT AGS DNL AND OGB WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER. LOCAL
RADIATION FOG FORMULA HINTS AT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
09Z-12Z. WILL MENTION FOG MOST SITES WITH 3-5SM VISIBILITIES.

WEAKENING FRONT AND BEST MOISTURE EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TERMINALS SATURDAY. VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SAT/SUN.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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