Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 230739
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
239 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems will track from the Gulf of
Mexico NE across Florida and offshore the Carolinas late
Thursday through Friday night, providing variable cloudiness
along with a slight chance of light rain, mainly in southern
and eastern areas. A dry cold front will cross the region
Saturday night, with high pressure building into the region for
Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mean upper trough axis continues to stretch from the Great
Lakes region south into the Gulf of Mexico. Upper disturbance
interacting with an old frontal boundary producing a surface
low currently over the E Gulf of Mexico. The low is progged to
shift to the NE across N FL and offshore the SC coast through
tonight. Radar mosaic currently indicates associated areas of
precipitation across that region with light rain pushing north
into S GA. Models continue to keep the bulk of the
moisture/precipitation associated with this system south of our
forecast area (FA). Latest high resolution models bring the
northern edge of the light rain area to our southern doorstep
later this morning. It appears that drier low level air working
into the FA, as high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic, will
limit the northward progress of the significant precipitation.
Continued to blend ongoing forecast with latest model consensus
which confines slight chance POPs to our southern/eastern FA.
Weak cool air advection and better cloud cover expected to keep
max temps today below yesterday`s values. Happy Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough will shift eastward Friday. The next in a
series of low pressure areas will shift to the NE from the E
GOMEX/FL vicinity and remain offshore the Carolinas.
Considerable uncertainty for Fri/Fri nt with some question as
to how far north the associated moisture will extend. Most
operational runs keeping the precip south of our FA, while some
ensemble guidiance indicating some potential for light rain
pushing north into our southern/eastern FA. For now, will
maintain slight chance POPs for that area due to uncertainty.
Any precip amounts would be light.

Fair with near to above normal temps expected Saturday. Next
upper trough to dig into the E CONUS Saturday, with main upper
trough axis and a surface front coming through our region
Saturday night with little impact other than some cloudiness
possible as moisture appears limited in a NW flow aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cooler and drier air to settle into our region behind the front,
as high pressure settles into our region Sunday through Tuesday,
providing fair and seasonably cool conditions. A couple of
frosty mornings possible Mon/Tue. Models differences in play
with the handling of the next systems that may affect our region
mid to late next week. Model consensus provides slight chance
POPs late in the forecast period, but considerable uncertainty
exists.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions during the 24-hour TAF period.

A dry airmass continues to build into the region from the north
with dewpoints falling into the 30s. The front that moved
through the region Wednesday has stalled near the coast. An
elongated upper trough will slowly move towards the area today
as low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico and lifts
northeastward along the frontal boundary. A 20-25 knot low level
jet has kept surface winds up a bit around 5 knots from the
northeast. Model time heights show some moisture in the layer
around 4kft-5kft which may result in periods of SCT-BKN clouds
mainly at the southern terminals AGS/DNL/OGB. Winds will be from
the northeast through the period around 5 to 8 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A frontal zone near the coast with
a series of low pressure centers moving northeastward may help
support MVFR or IFR conditions at times Friday but confidence is
low at this time.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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