Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 261344
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
944 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary over the Midlands this morning will
dissipate by tonight. High pressure will briefly ridge into the
area from the north for Thursday. A cold front will cross area
Friday night and Saturday allowing cooler conditions to
overspread the area for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper trough over the region with embedded disturbance over SE
GA, shifting SE. Surface back door boundary currently pushing SW
through central SC. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicating moisture
gradient over the region with precipitable water (PW) values
ranging from 1.5 inches NE forecast area (FA) to 2 inches SW FA.
Low level convergence along the surface boundary, with enhanced
instability and moisture closer to the upper disturbance favors
highest POPs CSRA and southern Midlands. Due to high PW values,
locally heavy rain possible over that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The mid level circulation will move south on Thursday allowing
brief mid/upper level ridging into the region. A slightly
drier airmass is expected to advect into the area with weak
instability. Have continued to indicate the lowest pops for the
week for Thursday with only isolated to slight chance for
convection. Kept temperatures near consensus for highs in the
low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Changes are forecast in the mid/upper level pattern for end of
the week into early next week.

Models indicate a vigorous s/w will dive southeast from Canada
and to the Mid Atlantic coast by Saturday/Sat night. Additional
weakness will develop along the east coast into next week. The
cold front associated with this system will move across the
region Friday night/early Saturday. This will increase the
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Will also need to monitor
for the potential for severe weather with the cold front
Friday afternoon into early Saturday. The front will likely
become stationary across GA/SC for much of the extended period.
Temperatures will warm ahead of the front on Friday into the
low/mid 90s...then cool down slightly for the remainder of the
period into the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper trough over the region with embedded disturbance over SE
GA, shifting SE. Surface back door frontal boundary currently
pushing SW through central SC. Isolated thunderstorm developing
along the boundary SE of CAE/CUB moving NW and may affect those
locations in the near term. In addition, lower cloudiness with
IFR to MVFR CIGs just behind the boundary appear will affect
CAE/CUB as well in the near term. Low level convergence along
the surface boundary, with enhanced instability and moisture
closer to the upper disturbance favors good chances of shower
and thunderstorms for the CSRA and southern Midlands, which
includes DNL/AGS/OGB.

For now, will focus on the near term. Low level moisture and a
weak SE low level flow could promote some fog/stratus late
tonight. Will address that in subsequent TAF issuances.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mainly afternoon/evening thunderstorms,
along with late night/early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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