Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 240855
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
355 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record temperatures will continue into this weekend. High
pressure centered off the coast will bring warm and moist air
into region today. A cold front will cross the area Sunday into
Monday bringing a high chance of showers. Temperatures will
remain above normal next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Patchy dense fog and stratus developing across the region early
this morning especially south and east of CAE. Stratus more
favored given a strong low level jet this morning 25 to 30
knots. Fog should dissipate by mid morning. Upper level ridge
has shifted to the Gulf of Mexico northeast across Florida.
Increasing southwest flow aloft today will transport increasing
moisture mainly to the northwest. Warm advection today so near
record high temperatures again today with highs in the low 80s.
Lift expected to remain mainly northwest of the area today and
soundings show mid level cap although weaker than yesterday.
Instability marginal mainly in the upstate. Radar showing
showers ahead of cold front across eastern Tennessee. Focus for
showers will be to the northwest of the area but can`t rule out
a light shower or two in the Piedmont later this morning or
afternoon.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
High low level moisture again supports stratus and or fog at
times. Continued mild with low temperatures near record warmth.
Any showers expected to remain northwest of the area closer to
the front.

Sunday...Low pressure will move from the Northern Great Lakes region
into Quebec on Sunday which will allow the cold front to cross the
Appalachians and move into the western portion of the forecast area.
Moisture will continue to deepen on Sunday with the chance of rain
increasing. The NAM/ECMWF models are slower than the GFS with
the system but MOS favor high pops by late in the afternoon. So
think morning will be dry across the region with increasing
chance showers from west to east through the afternoon into the
evening. Continued with likely pops west on Sunday closer to
the frontal boundary and deeper moisture and chance pops further
east. Instability appears quite limited with LI values near 0,
but cannot rule out thunder. Believe the better chance of rain
will occur Sunday night so have continued with likely pops
across the area. The pressure gradient will tighten on Sunday
ahead of the front with breezy conditions expected.
Southwesterly winds around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
are expected. A lake wind advisory may need to be considered.
Temperatures on Sunday will be above normal with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Monday...Upper level flow remains parallel to the front early in
the day so expect front to be slow to move east of the area.
Weak low pressure tracking northeast along the boundary from the
gulf coast States will focus showers across the area as
isentropic lift is enhanced along with low level convergence.
The showers should shift to the east late in the afternoon and
early evening. Cooler due to rain but temperatures but still
above normal.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move northeastward into the Mid-
Atlantic states on Tuesday with dry weather and mostly sunny
skies expected across the forecast area. High pressure will
shift off the coast Tuesday night with moisture and the chance
of rain returning to the area for Wednesday. Low pressure over
the Great Lakes region on Thursday will bring the next cold
front into the area for the end of the work week with unsettled
weather continuing. Temperatures through the period will
continue to be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions developing over the next couple of hours and
continuing through the mid morning hours...then returning to
VFR.

High pressure offshore of the Carolinas will keep southerly flow
over the region today with the main concern being the potential
for early morning fog and stratus. Satellite imagery and surface
obs indicate fog and stratus developing closer to the coast
which will move into the terminals over the next couple of
hours. Expect conditions to lower to IFR or LIFR during the
early morning hours then return to VFR by late morning as the
fog and stratus erode. Cumulus will again form during the
afternoon hours as a disturbance moves just west of the area.
Chance of rain remains too low to include in TAFs attm.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in late night
and early morning fog and stratus Sunday morning. Increasing
confidence in restrictions Sunday evening through Monday and
again Wednesday as frontal systems cross the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record heat expected again today.
CAE record 82 set in 2017. Warmest low tonight 61 set in 1890.
AGS record 84 set in 2017. Warmest low tonight 60 set in 1913.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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