Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 310639
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
239 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH SWRN NC AND NWRN SC. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN SC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EAST-CENTRAL
SC...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE LINE. THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD. WILL
KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS THE NEXT FEW HOURS EAST...AND CHANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE...THEN GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TOWARDS
MORNING. WITH CLOUDY SKIES DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH
MORE...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS WEST TOWARDS THE COAST AS
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. WITH GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE
STILL STREAMING NORTH...AND MOISTURE COMING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC...STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO PULL MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING TO BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. SATELLITE/OBS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MAINLY A COMBINATION OF IFR/MFR CONDITIONS.

88D SHOWS RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS BAND LOOKS
TO BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. AT THIS TIME MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS
NOW EAST OF ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHOWER DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS/VSBYS
REMAINING OR LOWERING INTO MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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