Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 041142
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY...WITH
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY EXPECTATIONS OF DRIER AIR RETURNING FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CONUS WITH UPPER TROUGH E CONUS. A WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...AHEAD OF
WHICH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE UP THE SC COAST.
SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
LATEST HI RES MODELS AND RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST MINIMAL PRECIP THREAT
IN THE NEAR TERM ACROSS THE S/E FA. AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER UP
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINING FA. OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY/TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH SOME INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL FA LATE TODAY...ALONG WHICH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY INDICATE A
DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS/GA. A GENERALLY DRY
ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF SOME MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AROUND UPPER
HIGH CENTER TO OUR SE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. WILL RELEGATE SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS MAINLY TO
THE WEST/SOUTH FA. DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAN TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR
OR JUST OVER 100 POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MEAN UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE E CONUS. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE PROGGED AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SHIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF
IT. GFS PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2
INCHES. SO...POPS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST CHANCE...WITH BEST
CHANCES FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON SHIFTING BEST MOISTURE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH APPEARANCE
OF GENERALLY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.
SO...MINIMAL POPS EXPECTED SAT/SUN. WEAK UPPER IMPULSES ALONG WITH
SOME EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE SOME SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS MON/TUE...BUT CONFIDENCE LIMITED. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE SC/NC STATE LINE THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NC COAST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE
EAST OF ALL TERMINALS TODAY. AN AREA OF STRATUS...ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG...HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SC THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT THE CAE/CUB/OGB TERMINALS THE
MOST...WITH LIFR STRATUS AROUND 500 FT. LESS OF A THREAT AT
AGS/DNL...BUT EVEN THERE CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR
CEILINGS. ONCE MIXING BEGINS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING BY
14Z. STRONG HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE FOG TONIGHT IN
SOME LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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