Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 281847
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
247 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A few thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon but
confidence is low. Ridging over the region will weaken on
Monday as a frontal boundary slowly slides into the area. The
front will stall over the area Tuesday with chances of showers
and thunderstorms each day through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon but
confidence is low. Weak upper level ridging and a pronounced
capping inversion will limit convective development. Upper
level cloudiness from a remnant MCV have also helped keep the
cap in place. However, late this afternoon an upper level
shortwave will move across the area. This along with the
weakening of the capping inversion may allow deep, moist
convection to initiate.

If thunderstorms develop, then strong potential instability and
40 kts of 0-6 km wind shear will pose a threat for severe
weather. Strong instability/deep layer shear values suggest a
supercell convective mode. The main threat will be damaging
winds due to dry air aloft and moderate mid-level winds. The
hail and tornado threat is low due to freezing levels around 15
kft and unidirectional hodographs.

Temperatures expected in the lower 90s this afternoon and around
70 degrees for a low tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Frontal boundary will continue moving toward the area on Monday
as the upper level ridge further weakens. Monday night the
front will move into the forecast area and stall across the area
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Main focus for the short term will
be convective potential as well as potential for severe
thunderstorms. Instability on Monday will be moderate to strong
with LIs around -5 and CAPE around around 1500 J/Kg. With dry
air in the mid and upper levels there will be potential for
damaging winds and with wet bulb zero rising to around 12 KFt
the potential for hail will be lower. With intersecting
boundaries and instability into Monday night expect scattered
convection into the overnight hours. SPC continues to have the
area under a slight risk for Monday as well. Temperatures Monday
afternoon will be in the lower 90s with lows Monday night in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tuesday will be similar...however with the front stalling over
the area expect the best chances for convection to along and
south of the front. Instability Tuesday will be strong and with
dry air persisting in the mid and upper levels will again see
potential for damaging winds and lower threat of hail. With a
weak pressure gradient there is also potential for a sea
breeze...models currently depict this remaining near the coast
and triggering convection however if this moves further inland
this could trigger additional convection. Tuesday afternoon
highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with overnight lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models are in good agreement into next weekend as the weak
surface front remains stalled over the region and a series of
weak upper level disturbances cross the area. This will keep
chances of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast each day through Sunday. Concern with convection for
Thursday onward will be potential for heavy rainfall as high
pressure over the western Atlantic will result in southerly flow
and open the area to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures through the long term will be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

A few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon but
confidence is low. Given the uncertainty in coverage, or
development at all, have not included in TAFs. If thunderstorms
do trigger, it would most likely be late this afternoon and
they may produce strong/damaging winds given the environment.

Winds will generally be from the west today around 10 knots with
some gusts to 20 knots possible. A 25 kt low level jet
overnight and cloud cover should preclude fog development.

Winds may become gusty as the inversion breaks Monday morning
around 14Z. Then expect WSW winds around 10 kts for the
remainder of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front will stall over the
region through early next week. The front will help support
scattered thunderstorms and possible restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.