Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 250600
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
200 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016
Dry high pressure will remain over the forecast area through
Friday. Moisture may increase over the weekend associated with low
pressure nearing the southeast coast.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the ridge over the
forecast area. A sea breeze front will likely move well inland
late this afternoon and evening. However, surface high pressure
extending from the Atlantic westward along the northeast Gulf
coast will continue to limit moisture. The models show just
shallow moisture and indicate mid-level capping. The NAM and GFS
MOS have pops less than 10 percent. We maintained the dry
forecast. The temperature guidance was consistent.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday and Thursday night,
There should be less mid-level capping with a continued shortwave
trough in the upper ridging. Strong heating and a sea breeze front
pushing well inland may help support a few showers or
thunderstorms. Some of the NAM and GFS MOS have pops around 20
percent. Forecasted a small pop in the afternoon and evening along
the I-95 corridor. The temperature guidance was close.
The models depict upper-level ridging retrograding into the
region with diminished moisture. The NAM and GFS MOS were
consistent with pops less than 20 percent. Believe the
thunderstorm chance is too low to include in the forecast. The
temperature guidance was consistent.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The focus during the medium-range period is on the Atlantic low
pressure system shifting toward the Southeast coast over the
weekend. The system may be stalled over the region early next
week. It is possible the low could gain sub-tropical
characteristics. There has been poor run-to-run model consistency
with the timing and placement of the system and confidence remains
low. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS indicate pops 30 to 60 percent
Saturday through Tuesday. The GFS ensemble guidance suggests a
spread of 20 to 50 percent during the period. We continued the
forecast of chance pops. Depending on the track of the storm,
locally heavy rainfall and flooding could become an issue in the
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence for VFR conditions expected through 06Z.
Increasing low level moisture coupled with near calm wind and dry
air aloft could lead to early morning fog 08Z-12Z. Any fog that
develops will dissipate by 13Z...leaving VFR conditions through
the end of the taf period. High pressure off the coast will
continue to ridge into the region. Winds will be Southerly less
than 10 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some fog possible at the fog prone sites
ags and ogb early each morning. Moisture return and associated
restrictions possible Saturday/Sunday as a subtropical low
approaches the area.