Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300241
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WE ARE STILL GETTING THE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE TRANSPORTED
DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES. THE LOWERED VIS WITH LOWER LEVEL
SMOKE WILL STAY TO OUR WEST SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR NOW. OTHER THAN THE SMOKE IT SHOULD BE VERY QUIET NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

KEPT A BIT OF LOW POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER DEVELOPS...BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH AS THE MAIN PRECIP
WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN WELL TO OUR EAST. SMOKE CONTINUES TO
BE AN ISSUE...WITH TEMPS KEPT IN THE 70S TODAY BY THE THICK LAYER
OVERHEAD. GIVEN ITS POSITION HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE DID NOT
INCLUDE SMOKE MENTION IN THE GRIDS BUT BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A
BIT THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SMOKE SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE LATER
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SMOKE
INFLUENCING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THICK SMOKE PLUME OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISPERSE
SOME BUT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WHERE IT PERSISTS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR WED/THU...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
MAINLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM CLOUD AND IF
THERE IS ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND...WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN QPF AREA SHOULD BE ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE FA...WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALSO TO OUR
WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MILDEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT BRINGING DOWN COOLER TEMPS THEREAFTER. MORE MODEL
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES CONTINUES TO COME ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A FAIRLY THICK LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A MENTION OF A
20000 FT CIG TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMOKE. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE
SOME HAZE DEVELOPING LATER ON TONIGHT...AND THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS WE DECOUPLE. NOT SURE ENOUGH FOR SOME 3-5SM IN HAZE
DEVELOPING TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR


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