


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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617 FXUS63 KFGF 160435 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1135 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for rain late this week and into the weekend, with the possibility of stronger storms Sunday and Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1003 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Clouds continue to dissipate in the Devils Lake Basin this evening, with isolated showers continuing for portions of far southeastern ND and into west central MN. Temperatures cool off rapidly overnight, with lows in the mid to upper 40s in the Devils Lake Basin and the 50s toward west central MN. Smoke near the surface has also started to slowly improve across the region. UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The main instability axis has shifted out of west central Minnesota this evening. We are watching the storms in NE SD and their propagation toward the east. There is a slight chance they clip Grant county, but most likely they remain south of the CWA. Showers continue for southeastern ND and into west central MN, with embedded isolated storms still possible for the next couple of hours. Winds remain out of the north through tomorrow afternoon, with cooler temperatures expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...Synopsis... Upper flow remains out of the west this afternoon as zonal H5 winds prevail. Shortwave activity at the H7 level continues to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms as cooler air slowly works into the region from the north to northeast. This pattern is expected to persist through much of this week and into the weekend, with several chances for precipitation Friday through next Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be in the lower range of normal values through early next week. Regarding precipitation, ongoing showers will keep a mention of precip in the forecast for Wednesday morning, with the next chance of rain expected on Friday. While thunderstorms are possible Friday, instability will be rather low, with little support for organized thunderstorm development. A better scenario for strong storms is evident on Sunday (40% chance of CAPE greater than 1000 J/Kg ), and even more so on Monday (80% chance of CAPE greater than 1000 J/Kg). The primary uncertainty will be the timing of a 700mb shortwave that will facilitate the development of a theta- e gradient boundary, thus providing an axis for thunderstorm development. Currently, 70 percent of GEFS ensemble members show some degree of strong thunderstorm potential as we head into Monday of next week. ...Severe Thunderstorms this Afternoon and Evening... Instability this afternoon will depend upon how much heating takes place at the surface. With overcast skies, this may prove challenging; however, elevated instability should be high enough to allow stronger storms to develop along a theta-e boundary stretching from Richland County, through Wilkin and Otter Tail Counties, then into Wadena and the adjacent areas. This boundary continues to move slowly to the southeast this afternoon. MUCAPE values are in the mid 3000 J/Kg range to the south of the boundary, with MLCAPE as high as 2500 to 3000 J/Kg. Surface to 3km shear is supportive of organized clusters or brief supercells, with only marginal support in the 0-6 km layer. The primary concern this afternoon will be large hail up to the size of ping pong balls and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. A tornado cannot be ruled out; however, the better chances for tornadoes will be further into central and southern portions of Minnesota. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Showers have cleared out of the TAF sites this evening, with skies turning FEW to SCT. TVF and BJI remain near MVFR status, but should improve in the next couple of hours. Overnight winds remain light and increase out of the north around 15-18z. Gusts reach up to 25kts tomorrow afternoon for all sites but BJI. Clouds will slowly fill back in tomorrow morning, but clear out near the end of the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Spender DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Spender