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000
FXUS63 KFGF 121818
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
118 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST...WITH CLEARING LINE NR ROLETTE
ND TO JUST WEST OF DEVILS LAKE TO JAMESTOWN AND OAKES MOVING EAST.
FROM THE CLEARING LINE WEST TEMPS WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WHILE IN CLOUDS TEENS AND 20S. FOR TONIGHT..ALL 12Z MODELS
AND UPSTREAM OBS AND CLOUDS INDICATE THAT THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SNOW HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED WITH ONLY FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW NOW IN MANITOBA
THOMPSON-NORWAY HOUSE EASTWARD AND THIS WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
MORE TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS MORNING INCLUDE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS TEMP TRENDS.

VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AIDED BY 850 MB WARM ADVECTION AND
FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO STREAK SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD EXIT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST TODAY WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PERSIST...WITH PERHAPS MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S WEST OF THE
VALLEY...AND REMAIN COOLEST TO THE EAST. THE SREF/NAM/GFS/RAP ALL
SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. THE GEM/ECMWF
INDICATE DRIER LOW TO MID-LEVELS AND THUS ARE DRIER. ADDED SOME
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TO THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED IF THE PRECIP BAND DEVELOPS MORE ROBUSTLY AS THE
AMERICAN MODELS SUGGEST. EITHER WAY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SNOWFALL.

TONIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD PUSH INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO CLIMB. WITH WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...TEMPS SHOULD NOT
FALL OFF MUCH...AND MAY REMAIN STEADY.

A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF
CANADA ON THURSDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO
NORTHEAST MN. WHILE SOME COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS...STILL EXPECT MILD TEMPS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE...AS WE HAVE SEEN EARLIER THIS WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST
NEAR THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN.
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD.

TEMPS SHOULD BE COOL DOWN SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY...BUT STAY NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH
DURING THE DAY HELPING TO BRING DOWN COOLER AIR AND TURNING WINDS
NORTHERLY. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD
FRONT...BUT AGAIN THIS WOULD BE VERY MINOR.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT BUT THEN CONSENSUS RAPIDLY DECREASES AS THERE IS
SOME STRUGGLE TO GET A HANDLE ON A PATTERN CHANGE. THE WEEKEND WILL
SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER A
SFC HIGH...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PICK UP
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH. THE ECMWF BREAKS OUT SOME
PRECIP ALONG THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY
SO KEPT POPS LOW FOR NOW. THERE IS A LOT OF VARIATION ON HOW THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING IN IS HANDLED...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS A SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGH AND THUS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
WHAT ALLBLEND GIVES US AS FAR AS SOME 20-40 POPS AND HIGHS NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

WEAK SURFACE TROF/WND SHFT WITH BAND OF MVFR/IFR FORECAST TO MIGRATE
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH 00Z. USING NAM12 LOW LVL MOIST PROFILE AS
GUIDANCE...WILL HOLD ONTO IFR DVL THROUGH 20Z AND MVFR GFK/FAR
THROUGH 01Z THEN VFR. TVF BCMG VFR AFTER 02Z AND BJI AFT 06Z.
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK...AND INVERSION FORECAST TO HELP KEEP WINDS
LIGHT THRU 12Z THU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/JR
AVIATION...EWENS