Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 232011
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
311 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Winds throughout the period will be the main issue.

Water vapor loop shows the large upper trough moving across the
Eastern Plains and Upper Midwest. Several significant shortwaves
are embedded in the main trough, including a few rounding up into
MN and another one digging down out of Manitoba. Showers have been
redeveloping just to our east with the MN shortwaves and more
showers over central ND to our west. Have some low POPs in our far
eastern counties to blend with neighbors, but it seems that the
western showers will be on a southward track and may only clip the
far western part of the Devils Lake Basin. Winds have continued to
blow from the northwest as a tight gradient and height rises
remain over the area. Winds have not been reaching advisory
criteria across our far southwest, but given we have a bit more
mixing possible will leave the headline alone.

Tonight and tomorrow, the shortwave over Manitoba will dig down
into the area. There will be another surge of cold air advection
coming down with this system, although the best advection along
with the best subsidence will be to our east. 925mb winds will be
around 35 to 40 kts, but do not think we will get fully mixed
overnight. Will continue to keep some fairly strong winds through
tonight and tomorrow, but will leave off any headlines for now.
Temps will remain cool thanks to the cold air advection, dropping
to near or below the freezing mark overnight even with boundary
layer mixing. Cool readings will continue into Tuesday with highs
only in the 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A moderate shot of warm advection on Wednesday (pushing temperatures
back into the 50s/near 60) and a break from the gusty winds will
provide for one last day of decent fall weather before things cool
down for the remainder of the work week and throughout the weekend.

The main story continues to be the system set to impact the region
Wednesday night through Thursday night. Developing low pressure
west/northwest of the area is slated to increase in intensity as it
tracks across the region Thursday. The GFS has remained fairly
consistent with a northwest to southeast track of the low with the
bulk of any impacts clearing the area to the east by Thursday night.
The 12z ECMWF has trended slightly further north and quite a bit
slower with impacts lingering across the eastern forecast area into
Friday. The bottom line is temperatures will be much cooler with
daytime highs on Thursday ranging from the low to mid 30s across the
north to low 40s in the south and well below freezing Thursday
night. The biggest question mark is on the timing/location of
precipitation and the associated rain vs snow chances. The bulk of
any QPF continues to be up along the International border and into
northwestern Minnesota just east of the Red River Valley. Any
snowfall accumulation will be dependent on just how high of rates we
can get going to overcome the warm ground. Lastly, the short lived
break from the gusty winds will come to an end as northerly winds
ramp up once again.

Surface high pressure will build into the area following Thursday`s
system with drier conditions returning and cooler air lingering.
Models do begin to diverge by late in the weekend with any waves
bringing additional precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

MVFR ceilings lingering at KBJI, along with a few showers in the
vicinity. The lower ceilings will hang on another few hours before
rising to VFR by afternoon. Some of the guidance has MVFR
ceilings returning later tonight, although there is a lot of
variation. Have KBJI going back down in category for a while
during the early morning hours but will keep the other TAF sites
just with some lower VFR coming in. Northwest winds will continue
to be breezy with gusts above 25 kts, decreasing a little bit
overnight and then the gusts will pick up again late in the
period.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ038-049-052.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...JR


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