Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 310822
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
321 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR
IMAGERY AND EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP CROSS SECTION SHOWED A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION OF A COLD CORE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WAS PART OF A
WEAK SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDED TO THE OHIO VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WAS OBSERVED OVER THE REGION WITH A 591DKM HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WAS
VERIFIED BY SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE FROM 25-
26C FOR DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. OVERALL LIGHT FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME
EACH DAY WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON. NIGHTLY
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE NEXT WEAK COLD CORE LOW WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. PWATS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES AROUND 1.8
INCHES WEST OF THE MS RIVER.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE FAR WEST AS THE
SYSTEM NEARS./17/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MEANDER ABOUT THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  WHILE A RETURN TO HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE DURING THE PERIOD AS PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
90S EACH AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATING AROUND
SUNSET. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR (TO PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY IFR)
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10 AND 13 UTC THIS MORNING AROUND
THE EAST TAF SITES OF GTR...MEI AND HBG. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE
LIGHT AND TEND TOWARD BEING A LITTLE VARIABLE./17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  72  95  72 /   7   8  11  10
MERIDIAN      93  70  93  72 /   7   8   9  10
VICKSBURG     96  71  96  72 /   4   6  10  10
HATTIESBURG   96  72  95  73 /   3   9  10  10
NATCHEZ       93  71  92  73 /   2   7  11  16
GREENVILLE    94  72  96  73 /   9   6  11  10
GREENWOOD     93  71  94  72 /   5   7   8  10


&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/17/19/


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