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000
FXUS64 KJAN 120905 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.UPDATE...EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY FOR WHOLE CWA AS CRITERIA WILL BE
REACHED OR EXCEEDED AREA WIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
EXITING MID LEVEL SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING. NEXT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL WAVE DIGGING OVER THE MID
MS VALLEY HAS ALLOWED A COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY PUSH OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND AT PRESENT IS MOVING THROUGH AR.

AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BLOWS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...FOG WILL
DIMINISH...LOW CLOUDS WILL RISE/DECREASE AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL KICK UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEASR 40 MPH. ALREADY HAVE A
WIND AVISORY OVER PORTIONS OF THE DELTA WHICH LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL
NEED TO ADD SOME COUNTIES FROM THE NE MS PRAIRIE LANDS WHICH SHOULD
EASILY MEET CRITERIA AS WELL BY THE AFTERNOON.

WITH DECENT DRY AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE
AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE. SOME
UPPER 20S LOOK POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT BE AROUND LONG AND LOOKS TO SLIDE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN SECTIONS BY SUNSET. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IN THE EAST WITH LOW TO MID 30 LOWS WHILE
AREAS TO THE WEST SETTLE AROUND 40./26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EURO/GFS/CANADIAN/NAVGEM
AS WELL AS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT DISAGREE ON THE INSTABILITY OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS WE PUSH INTO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MODELS
DIVERGE IN UPPER PATTERN SOLUTIONS. STARTING ON FRIDAY THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
TO THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PUSH TO AROUND 70. WE WILL GET
SOME LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE DELTA REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.1 INCHES AS SHOWERS SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. FOR SATURDAY SOME OF THE MODELS ESP THE
GFS TRIES TO BRING IN SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DONT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE. THE EURO AND CANADIAN/NAVGEM
MODEL DOES NOT SHOW ANY INSTABILITY FOR SATURDAY. SO OPTED TO KEEP IT
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT
ACCORDING TO THE GFS...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. OPTED TO GO WITH THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN MODEL
TRIES TO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY FOR SUNDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. SO WILL ALSO MAINTAIN SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT WITH THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND BAJA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS
WILL PUSH OUT OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY OUT WEST WILL GET
CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER BAJA. THE GFS AND NAVGEM BRING THE
BAJA UPPER LOW EAST TO THE NORTHWEST GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING AS IT
DAMPENS OUT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THE EURO KEEPS THE FEATURE CUT OFF
OVER BAJA AS IT WASHES OUT. OVER THE ARKLAMISS DRYER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE WILL ADVANCE TO THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
DAMPEN SHORTWAVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...CUTTING OFF ANY RAIN
CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED WENT CLOSE TO MEX AND GMOS GUIDANCE FOR
MOST PERIODS. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED WENT CLOSE TO MEX
GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH OPTED TO GO
CLOSE A BLEND OF EURO AND MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT FOG FROM NOT LOWERING
VISIBILITIES ANYMORE THAN PERIODICALLY MVFR AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z...A COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR BY 18Z.
WINDS WILL BE BRISK WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEING COMMON AND GUSTS
AROUND 35 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WITH CLEAR SKIES./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       62  34  62  39 /  11   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      63  31  62  33 /  10   0   0   3
VICKSBURG     64  33  63  40 /  11   0   0   3
HATTIESBURG   65  35  63  38 /  14   0   0   3
NATCHEZ       62  33  63  41 /  11   0   0   4
GREENVILLE    61  34  63  40 /  11   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     59  31  62  40 /  11   0   0   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$