Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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069
FXUS64 KJAN 252113
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
415 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...An upper level short wave barely skirting our region
in southwest to west flow aloft is helping instigate a somewhat
potent looking thunderstorm cluster headed into the Mid South
currently. Consolidated thunderstorm outflow expanding southeast
from this activity is helping to kick up isolated to scattered
storms in the juicy and unstable air mass across the Arklamiss
Delta, further into the teeth of the generally suppressive upper
level ridge extending north from the Gulf of Mexico. Latest HRRR and
short range models depict this rather disorganized convection moving
more toward the heart of the region this evening before diminishing
late this evening owing to lack of instability. A few strong storms
can be anticipated with gusty winds the main threat, but convection
is generally expected to remain too unorganized for severe activity
across our region.

Late tonight, trough energy in the atmospheric upper levels will
start reorganizing out to our west and focused Gulf moisture
transport and subtle lift aloft could spawn a few showers or a stray
storm before dawn along the western and northern periphery of the
region. Otherwise, anticipate low clouds building in from the south
again late tonight with maybe a bit of fog...mainly in Southeast
Mississippi.

The trend of a perturbed upper level pattern juxtaposed with
abundant moisture and instability lying just west and northwest of
the region will continue through Friday. During this time
significant rains and some thunderstorm threats will focus just
outside of the region, but outflow emanating east from storm
clusters will help move pockets of convection into at least western
and northwestern zones at times. At this juncture it appears that in
our forecast area the prospect of more than a stray severe storm is
low and with the recent spate of dry weather, it would take a whole
lot of water to cause flooding issues. Considering the above, for
now we have opted to keep the HWO clear but could certainly imagine
over the next 48 hours or so short term trends could make a limited
severe risk worthwhile (if ingredients come together just so). Of
course we will be monitoring short term trends closely and will
adjust the forecast as needed.

Over this mentioned short term period chances of rain (as alluded to
above) will be focused mainly away from central and southeastern
Mississippi, although an isolated storm cannot be ruled out in those
areas...primarily in the afternoon. The main story for the drier
spots will be the building warmth and humidity with the prospect of
hitting 90 degrees for the first time this season (for those locales
that haven`t) increasing gradually.

By Saturday the perturbed pattern on our periphery will relax a bit,
although at least afternoon showers and storm chances will continue
along the northern and western borders into the weekend. It is over
the weekend that ridging aloft will build back north from the Gulf
of Mexico more strongly, kicking up heat a further notch. Those
places which do not hit 90 degrees before this weekend may find it
hard to avoid before next work week begins. Hello Summer!

The prospect of rain may remain pretty limited for most heading
through early next week, with thermal capping keeping instability-
fueled afternoon and evening showers and storms mainly isolated. We
may have to wait until the latter portion of next week to bring
decent rain chances back for many in the region, although the time
of the season for fronts bringing widespread predictable rain
chances for all in the Lower Mississippi is certainly passing us by.
/BB/

&&

.AVIATION...At 20z vfr conditions was noted across the region.
Expect VFR flight categories to prevail at TAF sites over the area
for the rest of this afternoon and evening. There may be some vcts
at kglh and kgwo for this afternoon. Winds today will be southerly
between 5-10 knots. These will subside a bit this evening, remaining
southerly from 3-8 knots overnight. Some patchy low stratus is
possible first thing Thursday morning, perhaps briefly reducing
flight categories to MVFR status. Low stratus will dissipate by mid-
morning./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  88  70  87 /  19  17  18  17
Meridian      65  88  66  86 /   7  11  10  10
Vicksburg     72  87  72  86 /  23  28  32  29
Hattiesburg   68  89  69  88 /   8  11  10   9
Natchez       72  86  72  84 /  22  31  23  28
Greenville    72  86  71  84 /  24  33  56  38
Greenwood     72  87  70  87 /  25  24  41  27

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/BB/17/



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