Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 200213 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
913 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AT THIS
POINT...WITH THE LAST REMAINING ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA AROUND THE PINE
BELT. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN SPOTS OVER EAST MS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.
WINDS SHOULD BE CALM TO LIGHT AND CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE LOCATIONS. UPDATES ARE
CURRENTLY BEING SENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND THE FOCUS FOR THE
TAF FORECAST WILL BE ON MVFR VIS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 07-09Z
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SITE OR TWO SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR VIS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES BETWEEN 12-14Z. ALL OF THIS IS COVERED IN
THE CURRENT TAFS EXCEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VIS. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED LATER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY 14-15Z AND PERSIST ON
WED. /CME/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BIG STORY THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT STRESS ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB NEAR 105F TOMORROW AND INTO THE
104-109F RANGE ON THURSDAY WITH DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES.

RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGHEST SEEN
SO FAR THIS SUMMER AND MAKE RAIN CHANCES QUITE MINIMAL TO NIL.
HOWEVER FOR TOMORROW, THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE FAR SOUTH OWING FROM SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY BUT THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. EVEN LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH MID WEEK
AND WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO NEAR 70F; DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BECOME A HAZARD. HAVE PLACED AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT
STRESS AS HEAT INDICES OF 105-109F RANGE LOOK TO OCCUR THURSDAY IN
THE DELTA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAT ADVISORY BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL LOOK TO DROP BELOW 75F EACH NIGHT. THIS PATTERN COULD PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS
BOTH EC/GFS HOLD ON TO STRONG 594DM RIDGING. /ALLEN/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...

HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WHILE THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH
STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER OUR CWA BY FRIDAY. A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS OF 1.7-1.8 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE AROUND
92F AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY ABOVE NORMAL AT 95-97F AT
MOST SITES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BREAKING DOWN THE
LARGE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA UNTIL IT BEGINS SHIFTING EAST MONDAY. AS A
RESULT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S
EACH DAY WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF GREATER HUMIDITY CAN
BE MAINTAINED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST MONDAY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE ALSO IN PART TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/CME/ALLEN/22





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