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000
FXUS64 KJAN 082217
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
417 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING..

RAINY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS EFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
290-305K REGION HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO FEED IN MOISTURE IN THE AXIS
OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG AND SE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE AND IS
MOVING TO THE NE. THIS REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SW FLOW ALOFT/ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUE OF THE
REGION. WENT WITH MAV POPS OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR NW BUT EXPECTING THIS TO REMAIN JUST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THUS KEPT ONLY RAIN IN THE DELTA REGION
TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. THE
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE ERN AREAS AS THIS WILL BE
THE FOCUS AS CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH 850MB THETA-E IN THE
RANGE OF 320-330K. SOME OF THE CLEARING COULD OCCUR IN THE FAR NW AND
LVORI VALUES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG BUT NOT REAL
CONFIDENT ON THE CLEARING TOO MUCH.

H5 UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL STAY PUT AND KEEP
THE REGION UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FAST
MOVING S/WV WILL STRENGTHEN THE FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASE UPPER LEVEL
LIFT OVER THE REGION. THIS AIDED WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL AID IN HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING AS WE ENTER THE WORK WEEK.
WENT CLOSE TO MAV POPS BUT SHOULD CLEAR SOMEWHAT IN THE NW MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FILLING BACK IN LATER THAT EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE
5-7 DEGREES WARMER AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY. WENT WITH MAV
TEMPS BUT DROPPED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN THE NW AND SE. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD BE INTERESTING AS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RAINFALL
SHOULD MOVE BACK NW OVER THE REGION BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING E AS
DRIER AIR MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. AS THE MOISTURE DEPARTS AND DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
30S NEAR FREEZING IN THE FAR NW. EURO IS COLDER AND SEEMED TO HANDLE
THE PREVIOUS EVENT PRETTY WELL. THUS...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW BETWEEN 09-14Z. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE INTO
THE REGION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT IF WE CAN KEEP PRECIP AROUND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLDER TEMPS. EURO ALSO KEEPS PRECIP AROUND
LONGER AND EVEN GFS/EURO ARE CLOSE. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOULD BE BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES...MAINLY SE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR. TUESDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER BUT AS THE DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN WITH PWATS FALLING TO ~0.5 INCHES...HIGHS COULD BE COOLER
IN THE NW AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE. CUT MAV HIGHS IN THE
NW. RAIN SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 18Z TUESDAY BUT
LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE E UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. FINALLY AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...CLOUDS CLEAR AND 1032MB HIGH MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTH TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE S. WENT CLOSE TO MAV ON LOWS BUT MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS CHARACTERIZED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL TAKE A LITTLE
BREAK IN THE LONG TERM.

AS THE AREA DRIES OUT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A 1037MB SFC HIGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL TAKE
RESIDENCE OVER IOWA AND TRACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AS PW VALUES DROP
BELOW 1 INCH...AND EVEN 0.5 INCHES IN SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS. ALSO
DURING THIS TIME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT LESS SOUTHWESTERLY
AND UPPER RIDGING ACTUALLY OCCURS ABOVE US FOR A SHORT TIME AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THIS RIDGING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING OUT
IN THE WESTERN CONUS. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS PW VALUES RETURN TO 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE SFC HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND TEXAS. RAIN BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS...AND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY BEHIND A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG AND MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER TROUGH THAT DIGS FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD. THE SFC LOW IN
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS...THIS TIME
MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS GENERALLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR. EITHER WAY...BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A STRUGGLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAIN. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
START THE PERIOD OFF COOL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD
OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATE NORMALS. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH LIFR VSBYS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
09Z-15Z MON. VSBYS AND CIGS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE MONDAY AFTER 15Z BUT
CIGS WILL BE BETWEEN 2000-3000FT MONDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS WL BE POSSIBLE HBG-MEI. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z MON BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND
6KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       41  48  39  47 /  94  60  77  32
MERIDIAN      46  51  43  49 /  96  72  78  36
VICKSBURG     39  47  37  45 /  81  47  72  24
HATTIESBURG   48  57  47  52 /  79  55  49  28
NATCHEZ       41  44  39  47 /  84  45  72  25
GREENVILLE    34  43  32  39 /  64  21  57  15
GREENWOOD     37  47  34  44 /  80  40  68  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/28/22