471
FXUS64 KJAN 140810
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Through Monday night: Latest satellite imagery showed a shortwave
trough axis just to the west of our CWA. This trough axis was
helping and outflow boundary and a line of convection move into the
western most portions of our CWA but, models maintain that high
pressure surface and aloft to our southeast will remain dominant
over our CWA through Monday. This is expected to lead to more
isolated to scattered coverage of mainly afternoon and early evening
convection and slightly warmer afternoon highs. The 00Z MON JAN
sounding showed a PWAT of 1.88in. Thus, wl maintain a moist airmass
across our CWA through Monday night. With the lower rain chances and
warmer temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s, heat stress
concerns will increase over our whole CWA. Peak heat index values
will be around 105F again Monday. Wl continue to highlight the whole
CWA with a "Limited" for heat stress in our graphics. /22/

Tuesday through Saturday...

The forecast for the extended period remains on track for the most
part with no significant changes made to the overall forecast.
Dangerous heat will be the primary focus for the long term period
for our entire forecast area beginning on Tuesday with heat index
readings in the triple digits.

Model consensus from both the GFS and the Euro is still showing the
1020mb sfc high starting to gradually retrograde across the
southeast CONUS heading into Tuesday. As this high begins to push
north into the region, humid conditions will persist across our CWA,
which in turn, will lead to increasing heat conditions through the
extended period. Looking at current forecast trends, it appears that
heat indices will be in the 106-110 range next Tuesday through
Friday given daytime highs forecasted in the mid/upper 90s along
with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s (a few spots could
potentially see dewpoints in the low 80s). At this time, no changes
have been made to the heat graphic for the Tuesday/Friday timeframe
and we will continue to highlight a "Elevated" risk for dangerous
heat stress. Heat trends will continue to be monitored as we get
through the new work week. If heat trends continue to increase, then
a "Significant" risk will be introduce in later updates.
Furthermore, heat advisories/warnings will eventually be needed as
well.

Afternoon/early evening showers and t-storms will provide some
relief from the heat. Global guidance shows convection dissipating
by the evening hours each day as daytime heating wanes. A low
pressure system is expected to move along the Gulf coast by mid-
week. As the low pressure traverse the Gulf coast, the National
Hurricane Center is monitoring for a low probability (10-30% chance)
of tropical development. With PW`s in the 90th percentiles and
tropical moisture pushing into the region, a "Slight" risk for
excessive rainfall for Thursday and Friday was introduced by WPC.
Additional updates will be provided as the timeframe gets closer.
Rain chances will linger into Saturday afternoon/evening with higher
PoPs (around 50-85%) along and east of I-55. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Persistence continues to be a good forecast with high pressure
locked in and centered to our east resulting in moist
southwesterly flow over the forecast area. VFR conditions and
light southwest surface wind will prevail for the most part
through the forecast period. Exceptions will be with a few areas
of MVFR/IFR category stratus and BR/FG during the early morning
hours, and with brief impacts from diurnally driven TSRA, which
will tend to be most enhanced during the mid/late aftn to early
evng. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  74  96  75 /  20  10  20   0
Meridian      95  74  97  75 /  20  10  20  10
Vicksburg     94  75  95  76 /  20  10  10   0
Hattiesburg   97  75  98  76 /  30  20  30  10
Natchez       93  74  95  73 /  20  10  20   0
Greenville    92  74  95  76 /  30  20  20   0
Greenwood     93  74  95  76 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/CR/EC