Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 220153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
853 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.UPDATE...Forecast is on track, only change was to tweak overnight
min temps.

CAA has continued today behind yesterday`s cold frontal passage with
temps only reaching the low 70s this afternoon. The much cooler and
drier airmass will allow overnight temps to drop well into the low
40s area wide and even upper 30s in some locations. Lowered min temps
by a degree or two along and north of I-20 where the best cooling is
expected to occur. This is also supported by the latest guidance.
While light, sfc winds will help to inhibit textbook radiational
cooling conditions, therefore did not lower overnight min temps too
much. /TW/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/


Tonight through Saturday...

Overall a quiet forecast period is in store over the next few days
as surface high slowly builds into the region. Limited fire weather
danger will continue to be possible through this evening as wind
gusts are near 10-20mph across the area as a strong pressure
gradient is keeping strong northerly flow in the area. Cool and dry
forecast is in store as we move into the weekend. With cold air
advection and the pressure gradient slowly becoming lighter as we go
into tonight and less than a half inch PW`s (less than 10th
percentile per NAEFS/GEFS) much colder low temperatures are in store
tonight. Lows could fall into the upper 30s in spots to low 40s,
which is some 10 degrees below normal. Tomorrow will be slightly
warmer as 850mb temperatures hover around 8 degrees C, which is only
about a degree or so warmer than today. This will support highs in
the lower 70s but with the surface ridge moving over the region,
expect lighter winds. However, due to such an anomalously dry
airmass, dewpoints could mix out into the low 30s and upper 20s
tomorrow. Added an elevated threat in the HWO/graphics for tomorrow.
Refer to the fire weather section for more information on the fire
weather danger. /DC/

LONG TERM...Saturday night through Friday.... Dry weather and
warming temperatures will be the story of the long term forecast.
Radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to fall to near and
slightly below 40 degrees on Sunday Morning. A warming trend will
begin on Sunday as an upper ridge builds overhead and the surface
high begins to slowly progress eastward. The increased fire weather
danger will continue on Sunday due to the dry conditions and
abnormally low RH values. Humidity will begin to slightly increase
late on Sunday as lower level flow becomes southerly, pulling more
moist air into the region from the Gulf. Daily highs will range from
the low to mid 80`s through the work week. Long term models agree on
a surface front associated with an upper through progressing through
the region late in the work week. However, the region is expected to
remain dry through the next 7 days./JPM3/


Fuels remain dry across the vast majority of the area. RHs are
bottoming out around 30% today with wind gusts above 20 mph at
times, leading to increased fire danger in many areas. While less
wind is anticipated on Saturday and Sunday, RHs are expected to fall
farther into the 20-30% range, and thus an elevated fire danger will
persist, especially in southeast Mississippi. Based on these
meteorological factors and collaboration with MFC yesterday, we will
maintain the currently advertised fire weather threat in the
HWO/graphics, but added an elevated threat in southeast Mississippi
for Saturday and kept a limited areawide in the HWO/graphics for
fire weather danger through Sunday. /DC/

00Z TAF discussion.
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light north
winds can be expected for tonight and Saturday./17/


Jackson       42  73  41  81 /   1   1   1   1
Meridian      39  74  38  81 /   1   1   0   0
Vicksburg     39  73  41  80 /   1   1   1   1
Hattiesburg   43  73  40  80 /   1   1   1   1
Natchez       42  72  43  79 /   1   1   1   1
Greenville    42  72  46  80 /   1   1   1   1
Greenwood     39  71  43  79 /   1   1   1   1




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