Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 270917
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
328 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Today through Wednesday Night...

Latest satellite imagery showed a large upper trough extending from
the Upper Mississippi Valley region to the MidSouth. The associated
cold front was over the southeast portion of MS where dewpoints were
in the lower 70s. Models and some Hi-Res models shows that some
isolated thunderstorms may develop across the southeast where pwats
will be around 1.7 inches. The front will sweep out of the state for
today. Expect the activity to quickly end by sunset across the
southeast as drier air overtakes that area. The best lift and
dynamics will continue to be well north of the region. Temperatures
will be on the cooler side with highs in lower to upper 80s. The
drier air will lag behind the front and will finally cross the
southeast portion of the CWA this evening as low rain chances
quickly diminish around sunset. Expecting a cool night for tonight
as we get our first taste of fall. This will occur as the upper
trough expands southward across the Lower Mississippi Valley.  With
40s and 50s dewpoints along with light winds lows will range from
the lower 50s to the lower 60s. Low temps will range up to 10
degrees below normal for this time of year. As we go into Wednesday
expect dry weather through Wednesday night. With the dry air in
place highs will be a little warmer with readings in the middle to
upper 80s. Lows for Wednesday night will be in the lower to upper
50s./17/


.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Monday....

The long awaited return of Autumn like weather will come to an end
soon. Long term models generally agree on the solution of an upper
level closed low becoming centered near the Ohio Valley region by
Thursday. At the surface, an associated reinforcing cold front will move
through the region early Thursday. Cooler, less humid air will exist
behind this dry frontal passage. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday
will struggle to reach 80 degrees. If this holds true for Thursday,
it will be the first time since May 18th that KJAN failed to reach
the 80 degree mark, a 134 day streak. Decided to go slightly below
guidance for low temperatures on Friday and Saturday morning to
account for optimal radiational cooling conditions. Expect lows in
the low to mid 50`s each day. The upper low will slowly meander
throughout the Northeastern U.S. late in the work week before lifting
northeast towards New England and becoming less organized late in the
weekend. The Euro keeps the upper low intact and and progresses it
northward a bit slower than the GFS. Models begin to diverge early
next week with the Euro building an upper ridge over the region
while the GFS keeps flow more zonal. The Euro`s solution would result
in a return of well above average temperatures by Tuesday. The
ArkLaMiss will remain dry through the long term./JPM3/

&&

.AVIATION...The front was observed around the southeast portion of
the forecast area early this morning. There maybe some potential
cold advection stratus early this morning across MEI/HBG area. There
may be some patchy fog across the HBG area,which will lift by 16z.
There may be some isolated TSRA across the southeast for This
afternoon and early evening. Otherwise expect drier VFR conditions
to push across the entire region for today into tonight. Winds will
be out of the north at 5-10 knots for today and light north for
tonight./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  57  85  58 /   5   5   3   3
Meridian      86  55  86  57 /  13   9   4   3
Vicksburg     83  53  87  56 /   5   4   3   2
Hattiesburg   88  62  86  59 /  26  14   5   1
Natchez       83  58  85  58 /   6   6   2   1
Greenville    81  54  85  58 /   3   2   2   3
Greenwood     82  52  85  54 /   4   3   2   3

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

17/JPM3



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