Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 300153 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
853 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE... ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN MS WHILE MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-55 WERE SCARCELY THREATENED BY RAIN. MORE UBIQUITOUS WAS
THE HEAT...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE MANY
PEOPLE ACROSS THE REGION COULD BE SOMEWHAT ACCUSTOMED TO THAT.

THE DISTURBANCE FLOWING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE DASTARDLY
UPPER RIDGE HELPED FUEL THE STORMS RUNNING AMOK THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF MS TODAY...BUT MOST OF THOSE STORMS ARE NOW SHIFTING DOWN
TOWARD THE COAST.  A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING DOWN TOWARD THE
REGION IS KICKING UP SOME SCATTERED STORMS RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...AND THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF
THIS ACTIVITY TO PIVOT SOUTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...I THINK THIS SOLUTION IS OVERLY OPTIMISTIC GIVEN
PREDOMINATE RIDGING ALOFT...ALTHOUGH I DID LEAVE SOME 20 POPS LATE
TONIGHT IN AT LEAST EASTERN MS WHERE IT IS PLAUSIBLE FESTERING
INSTABILITY AND A VERY WEAK RIDGE-ROUNDING DISTURBANCE COULD
CATALYZE INTO A SMALL BIT OF PRECIP.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
INCOMING FRONT WILL COME TOMORROW...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NEAR-
DAWN BRIEF MVFR CATS OR A LATE NIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
GWO/CBM/GTR/NMM/MEI/PIB/HBG. TOMORROW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MS AND SOUTH OF
I-20. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EVEN A
LITTLE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY UP AROUND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GREATER THAN 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE
THAT TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
HOT...WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING FROM 106-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILD SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL ON THURSDAY WITH PWATS
UP CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WILL INTRODUCE A
LIMITED AREA FOR SEVERE FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR.

THE BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
..USHERING SOME DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH PWATS
FALLING TO AROUND 1.0-1.2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. /15/

LONG TERM...LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY
FRI...THE PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  97  75  94 /  14  47  14   6
MERIDIAN      72  96  73  92 /  16  57  25  13
VICKSBURG     75  99  73  95 /  12  39  12   4
HATTIESBURG   74  97  76  94 /  15  62  41  26
NATCHEZ       76  98  74  93 /  16  46  22  12
GREENVILLE    78  96  71  93 /  14  19   7   0
GREENWOOD     76  96  70  93 /  17  21   8   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ034>066-072>074.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

BB/15/CME



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