Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 231750 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1150 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion


18Z TAF discussion:
Overall low stratus and fog that has been widespread this morning
over eastern TAF sites near HBG, MEI has lifted and VFR
conditions are moving in the wake as the fog and stratus lifted.
Some lingering MVFR/LIFR low ceilings at GTR due to lingering
stratus are possible until around 23/19Z before VFR conditions are
expected through the afternoon. Winds may be gusty from the south
around 15-20kts in the northwest Delta near GLH/GWO but mainly
less than 10kts elsewhere. Expect more IFR/LIFR low ceilings and
visibilities, due to low stratus and some patchy to possibly
patchy dense fog, to move into tonight from the south. These
IFR/LIFR fog/stratus are expected at MEI and especially HBG after
24/07-09Z before lifting by mid-morning. /DC/


Overall the most sites around the area, with the Delta, some in
northeast Louisiana and quite a few sites along and east of I-55
had some sort of fog this morning, with areas that received fog it
was pretty dense, some extremely dense less than a quarter of a
mile in east Mississippi under the influence of that upper ridge
and light winds. Areas in the west may have had just enough low
level flow to keep visibilities up. The overall crossover
temperature rule yesterday seemed to handle it pretty well this
morning, other than some dewpoints falling overnight, which seemed
to limit the expansive nature of the very dense fog as it was
yesterday morning. With visibilities improving, other than areas
in some areas in east Mississippi, decided to cancel the dense fog
advisory areawide about 9AM and clear out the HWO/graphics. Some
lingering patchy fog or potentially patchy dense fog is possible
in east Mississippi but that should begin to clear up in the next
hour or so.

The upper pattern this morning consists of the closed upper low
moving off of the coast of south Florida into the Bahamas while
shortwave ridging is building into the ArkLaMiss in the wake. At
the surface, the surface low is moving into the western Atlantic
while strong Bermuda high is wedging across the Appalachians and
down into our area. As the shortwave ridging builds in today, low
level temperatures have warmed ~4 deg C at 850mb and ~2.5 deg C at
925mb. This low level warming will support some 4-8 degree warmer
high temperatures today than yesterday, which will put us into
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Any lingering low clouds in the east
could hamper warming slightly but expect us to warm within a
degree or two of record highs areawide, except near Meridian. We
could also be slightly gusty in the Delta as a strong surface low
develops over the central Plains and traverses into the mid-
Mississippi Valley and increases our pressure gradient in the
Delta. Winds could gust up near 20mph or so this afternoon there
in the Delta. Otherwise expect a nice and warm afternoon, some
15-20 degrees above normal. /DC/

Prior discussion below:

Today through Tonight:

An anomalous warm pattern will be the general rule for the
period. Latest satellite imagery showed shortwave ridging over the
ArkLaMiss region. Surface high pressure was centered over the
region with light winds and low level boundary moisture. Fog was
developing across portions of the region. There was patchy dense
fog across the west and more scattered dense fog in coverage
across the east half. Will maintain dense fog advisory until 10 am
across the forecast area. Short term CAM models shows that the
fog will be slower to dissipate across the eastern areas. Skies
will become partly cloud from west to east for late this morning
into this afternoon. Expect another anomalous warm day with highs
in the middle 70s to the lower 80s. For tonight the shortwave
ridging will be pushed to the east as an upper trough pushes into
the Central and Southern Plains. An associated cold front will be
approaching from the ArkLaTex region. Also expect some patchy fog
to develop across the south after midnight. Lows will range from
the middle to upper 50s./17/

Friday through Wednesday...

Another warm day will occur on Friday as the upper ridge will slide
off to the east. This will come as as an upper low and surface low
will track across Iowa and into the Great Lakes region. As this
does, an attendant cold front will push into the ArkLaMiss region
during the evening hours on Friday. At this point, not much QPF is
expected with this system as capping looks to be an issue until much
later into the evening/night. Some showers and/or storms may be
possible in the eastern part of the forecast area, but by this time,
all of the better forcing should be moving away from the region and
thus severe weather is not anticipated at this time. The front will
push through overnight and usher in slightly more seasonal air as
surface high pressure will move in behind the front. A dry weekend
is in store with highs in the 60s both Saturday and Sunday(though
some upper 50s may be possible in the northern part of the forecast
area on Saturday). Overnight lows on Saturday night/Sunday morning
will actually be quite chilly compared to recent lows. Readings in
the 30s will be common across the are and even some locales in the
northeastern quadrant of the forecast area may see a light freeze.

The surface high will shift east on Sunday, allowing moisture and
gradually moderating temperatures to return for early in the
week. Models show that another system will develop to our west and
track across northern Arkansas into the Ohio Valley. The GFS and
ECMWF differ in how robust the surface low will be, with the GFS
being more pronounced. The Canadian depicts a more pronounced
surface low as well, but much further north and later than either
the previous two models and leaves Monday dry. Needless to say
there is some disagreement in model solutions heading into the
early parts of next week. However, it does appear that at some
point, this system should bring another round of showers and some
thunderstorms to the region for the first half of the week and we
will be in a more active/progressive weather pattern. Temperatures
will return to our spring-like readings with highs in the 70s and
some potential 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. /28/


Jackson       82  57  81  46 /   0   2   5  18
Meridian      81  55  80  48 /   0   3   4  24
Vicksburg     82  56  81  45 /   0   2   6  16
Hattiesburg   82  55  81  51 /   0   5   4  20
Natchez       81  58  81  47 /   0   2   6  15
Greenville    79  56  79  42 /   0   3   6  12
Greenwood     81  58  78  43 /   0   3   5  17





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