Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220202
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
902 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A SERIES OF LOWS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ONE OF THESE LOWS IS DROPPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE
AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH IS
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DUE TO THIS TROUGH WE CAN SEE SOME SHOWERS ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN
EDGE PF THE KEY WEST RADAR AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND AT
THE SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WHILE LONG KEY IS A BIT SUBDUED AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KEY
WEST...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE MARATHON TERMINAL. THE EVENING
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW THE INCREASING TREND IN MOISTURE LOCALLY
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD VEERING IN A SHALLOW
LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 800 MB...AND GOOD EVACUATION ALOFT.

.FORECAST...
THE LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL BE THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE KEYS AREA. A FRONT
WILL ARRIVE NEAR THE KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEREAFTER THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE GFS STALLING THE FRONT FOR A FEW DAY
LONGER WHEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL WATCH THE GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS FOR
ANOTHER SEVERAL RUNS BEFORE COMING TO A CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED WITH NO ADVISORY OR
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT BREEZES TO REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS...
BASED AT AROUND 2000 FEET...ARE LIKELY AT EYW AND MTH MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL
DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1901...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 50 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON DECEMBER 21ST...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 113 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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