Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020935
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
535 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...DUE EAST
OF THE CAROLINA OUTERBANKS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAILED
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR LAND OBSERVING STATIONS
REGISTERING NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH. WHILE WINDS OVER
THE MARINE DISTRICT HAVE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN HAWK
CHANNEL...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS OVER THE BAY AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF
WATERS HAVE BEEN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS HAVE TRAVERSED THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...DELIVERING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE UPPER KEYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND IN TO TUESDAY AS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.
FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES AS INDICATED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.


&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
ITS WAY IN TO THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE. A MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE EVIDENT IN THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.MARINE...FROM SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS...DUE EAST OF THE CAROLINA OUTERBANKS...WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT IN TO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...LIGHTER WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL FRESHEN AND TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...BACK IN THE YEAR 1877...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE
OF 63F WAS RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
TO BE RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  79  86  78 / -  10 10 10
MARATHON  88  79  88  78 / -  10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FLING
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......99

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