Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 252019
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
318 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN...WHILE LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR REGION. SURFACE WISE...AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE (1011 MB) IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS ALIGNED
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE...A TWO PRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXTENDING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AVERAGE NEAR 15 KNOTS EXCEPT
NEAR 10 KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK SWIFTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEAR
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL ASCENT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION...EXPECT A BROKEN
SWATH OF SHOWERS TO PUSH THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME MODERATION THEREAFTER.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND GULF COAST REGION...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW A STABLE LAYER NEAR 850 MB
AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ONLY ISOLATED DIME POPS WILL BE
KEPT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR ENTIRE MARINE
DISTRICT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS WEEK...WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/26TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A MVFR ENCOUNTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AFFECTS OUR AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
24 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  75  62  70 / 30 50 00 00
MARATHON  74  76  60  69 / 30 50 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...APA



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