Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 111845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - THE ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST BREEZES ACROSS THE
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. DESPITE AN UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED PROFILE
IN THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THIS IS DUE TO A SWATH OF MUCH DRIER
LOWER AND MID LEVEL AIR THAT HAS GENERALLY DONE A GOOD JOB OF ERODING
ANY CONVECTIVE TOWERS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK TUTT CELL CAN BE SEEN
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...AND WINDING ITS WAY
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
BAHAMAS HAS SPAWNED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST - THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING GENTLE EAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE SWATH OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF
OUR AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY GREATER DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLING ALOFT. THIS WILL RETURN THE KEYS AND
WATERS TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT. NO STRONG FORCING
FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED...MAINLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED
BY LEE SIDE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES...MARITIME CLOUD LINES...OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS JUSTIFIES AT LEAST LOW CHANCE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 90 DEGREES...AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID 70S.

THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BY MID WEEK.THIS WILL RESULT IN SAGGING WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD BACK INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...REMAINING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS WEAK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABUNDANT...AND CONDITIONS UNSTABLE. WITH RIDGE
REMAINING SO CLOSE TO THE KEYS...MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE CONVECTIVE REGIME...OFTEN BEING DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...SMALL SCALE REGIONS OF CONVERGENCE...AND ISLAND CLOUD
LINE DEVELOPMENT. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH THE MID
AND LONG RANGE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE HANGING OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS...WITH THE USUAL WIND SURGE THIS EVENING OVER THE
OUTER AND WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE ISLAND
CHAIN FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SUSTAINED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE MORE OF A THREAT TO BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS BY
THIS EVENING. HAVE PUT A VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH LOCATIONS
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND ALLOWING THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2007...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST REACHED 94 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD IN KEY WEST FOR JULY 11. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  91  83  91 / 30 30 30 30
MARATHON  82  93  82  93 / 30 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......RIZZO

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