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984
FXUS62 KKEY 252028 AAA
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Key West FL
328 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Skies are mostly sunny with temperatures hovering around 80
degrees along the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, local radars are void
of any precipitation echoes. Surface wise, a weakening cold
front/dry line is draped from extreme southeast Georgia
southwestward into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Winds are
variable to mostly west at less than 10 knots on our marine
district.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
A narrow surface ridge lying across our region will retreat
southeastward as a decaying cold front sags down the Sunshine
State, before becoming diffuse over south Florida on Sunday.
Meanwhile, a large area of high pressure will move swiftly into
the Southeast United States before sliding offshore of the mid
Atlantic coast on Monday. Beyond that, an extensive ridge axis
will drop into the Florida peninsula. Given limited moisture, a
lack of low level confluence and large scale lift will result in
zero pops through Sunday, before increasing low level confluence
along with weak upglide will support isolated 10 to 20 percent
pops except low chance 30 percent pops on Monday night. Above
normal temperatures will prevail with daytime highs averaging in
the lower to mid 80s, with overnight lows generally in the lower
to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
The western Atlantic ridge lying across the Florida peninsula will
drop southward and approach our region late Thursday and perhaps
pass through our entire area Thursday night. Thereafter, another
strong area of high pressure will build southeastward and into
our area. Despite the mid and upper ascent remaining north of our
area, ample low level moisture within an increasing easterly flow
will prompt isolated 20 percent pops to be retained beginning
Thursday, but until then dime pops seem fine. Daytime temperatures
will average in the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows in the
lower to mid 70s, before some cooling begins Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds will slowly increase and become gentle to moderate by
Sunday, before freshening when an Exercise Caution Headline and or
Advisory will be required Sunday night through possibly Tuesday
night. Thereafter, winds will slacken before a cold front
approaches our area by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR should prevail through Saturday evening, with variable light to
gentle breezes veering from west to north. Stratus early Sunday
morning may bring MVFR ceilings, occasionally going SCT to BKN
around 2,000 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1989, the daily record low temperature of 51F was recorded in
Key West. Temperature records have been kept since 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  71  81  73  81 / 0 -  -  20
Marathon  71  83  73  84 / 0 -  -  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....MCLOVIN
Data Collection......RIZZO

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