Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291836
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
235 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...OUTSIDE OF OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF WISPY CIRRUS RACING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CELESTIAL DOME...RESPLENDENT SUNSHINE WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE COVERING THE
ISLAND CHAIN. AND OF COURSE...NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES ARE BEING
DETECTED BY LOCAL RADARS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. IN WAKE OF THIS UNDULATION ALOFT...AN
EXPANSIVE AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SUNSHINE
STATE. WITH THAT SAID...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH A
DECOUPLED SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW OVERLAID BY A WESTERN TRAJECTORY.
THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE WISE...WINDS WILL TURN MOSTLY EASTERLY BY TUESDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 80S BY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIGHT
WINDS WILL PROMPT A LOW TEMPERATURE RANGE OF 65 TO 70 ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WHICH EQUATES TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED (2ND
PARAGRAPH) ANTICYCLONE WILL MEANDER IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A SHARP RIDGE REACHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SUNSHINE STATE AND OUR AREA. BECAUSE OF THE PRONUNCED
SUBSIDENCE...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCANT WITH NO EVIDENCE OF EVEN A
SHEAR AXIS PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA. HENCE...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY
FROM NICKLE POPS IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER SUBTLE WIND INCREASE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT WHICH WILL PROMPT A SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE HEADLINE TONIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE WATERS FROM IN AND AROUND DRY TORTUGAS
AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS OUT 60 NM. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEYOND THAT...WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM LIGHT TO
MODERATE...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ANTICIPATED ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AWAY FROM THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON FLORIDA KEYS AIRPORTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
AVERAGE FROM 040-050 DEGREES AOA 12-14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 18
AND 22 KNOTS THRU ABOUT 02Z OR 03Z THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO
ABOUT 8 KNOTS THEREAFTER. A FEW WISPY CIRRUS WILL BE FOUND AOA FL250-
300 BUT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR BELOW 12 KFT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1906...1.44 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MARCH 29TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 109 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  67 77 68 78 / 00 00 00 00
MARATHON  67 78 68 80 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................DAF

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