Area Forecast Discussion
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196
FXUS62 KKEY 072034
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
334 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN IN WAKE
OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 50. SKIES HAVE CLEARED CONSIDERABLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COOL AND WINDY NORTHWEST BREEZES HOLDING.

FORECAST - A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL DROP WINDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...COOL AIR DRAINAGE OFF
THE MAINLAND SHOULD SLOW THE DECAY UNTIL AFTER DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE QUITE A BIT...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 50 DEGREES IN THE EXTREME UPPER KEYS...AND MID 50S IN
THE LOWER KEYS.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR BY...AND PUSHING SOUTHWARDS INTO
CUBA...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TOMORROW AND TURN WESTERLY.
SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW. A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE KEYS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE RETAINED. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THE BACKED FLOW AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THICKNESS
ADVECTION WILL JUST AND TO HOLD HIGHS AND LOWS STEADY.

YET ANOTHER RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN WILL SWING THROUGH THE
KEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
DRIVE ANOTHER LULL AND SURGE IN WINDS ON THURSDAY. THE CONTINUED
COOL TRAJECTORY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH SLIM TO NO CHANCE
FOR RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER NORTHEAST AND
EAST NORTHEAST. THE INCREASINGLY MARITIME TRAJECTORY WILL FINALLY
BRING A WARM UP JUST SHY OF NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL REMAIN
SLIM TO NONE.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
A RIDGE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL EXTEND NEAR
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS BY MORNING...AND PUSH SOUTHWARDS INTO CUBA
TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AND OSCILLATE NORTH TONIGHT...AND THEN WEST TOMORROW. FOR THE
TIME BEING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT...AND WILL BE PARED BACK AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. A COUPLE MORE
REINFORCING FRONTS WILL PAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AREA...THE
FIRST ON MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AND THE SECOND ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND SURGES AND LULLS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE PERIODICALLY REQUIRED FOR KEYS WATERS.


&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/8TH...ONLY SCT030-050 ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 14 TO 18 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS OF 24 TO 28 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG CROSSWINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO NEAR
10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...IN 1978...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 48F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  56  68  62  70 / 0 0 20 10
MARATHON  53  68  61  71 / 0 0 20 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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