Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 220859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
459 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Scattered showers were observed during the overnight hours across
some of the islands of the Florida Keys and the surrounding
waters. Rainfall accumulations were from a few hundreths to three
quarters of an inch in the Upper Keys. Elsewhere, partly to
mostly cloudy skies were occurring. Winds were from the east to
southeast at 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts to 20 to 25 mph.
Temperatures were in the lower 80s across the Keys as of 4 am.

A high pressure system was located over the mid-Atlantic coast
earlier this morning, stretching towards Florida. This high will
move northeast and away from the local area today. At the same
time, an area of low pressure will get better organized over
Arkansas and lift northeast tonight and tomorrow Monday. Locally,
as the high moves away, its ridge will continue to extend towards
the Florida Keys keeping winds from the southeast to south today
through Tuesday. Moisture present in the region will be reach
the Keys, and in combination with some instability, a few
thunderstorms will be possible, especially Monday through Tuesday

On Monday afternoon, the aforementioned low will be over Georgia
and its trough will extend from the Florida panhandle towards the
Gulf. As the front, makes its way south over the Florida
peninsula, it is expected to weakens before it reaches the Keys
sometime between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Active
weather will be possible Tuesday night as the front goes over the
local area. After its passage, low dew points (as low as near 60
degrees) will be welcomed with fair and breezy weather conditions
Wednesday night through Thursday night. On Friday and Saturday,
an increase in moisture is expected.


Winds are expected to decrease today to below advisory criteria.
However, winds near 20 knots were still being observed earlier
this morning across the Atlantic side waters. Therefore, the
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect but it could be drop later
this morning. Winds are forecast to increase once again starting
early Wednesday as a consequence of the passage of a cold front.


Fast moving showers this morning resulted in brief MVFR/IFR episodes
at EYW, with MTH experiencing predominately VFR conditions.
Additional passing shower activity with similar impacts will be
possible at the terminals through a few hours after sunrise before
decreasing coverage is expected the remainder of the day. Winds will
remain gusty and southeasterly, averaging 12 to 15 knots, with gusts
around 20 knots.


Season to date, Key West has observed an average temperature of
83.9F, ranking as the 5th warmest fall on record through October
21st, with 2007 holding on to the top spot at 84.6F. The fall of
2007 would go on to finish as the warmest ever observed in Key West
with an average temperature of 82.2F. Temperature records in Key
West date back to 1872.


Key West  86  79  86  77 / 50 30 40 40
Marathon  86  79  86  77 / 50 30 40 40


GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ042>044-052>055-072>075.




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