Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KKEY 241819
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
219 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND
WITH THE MARINE STATIONS REPORTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS CROSSING THE KEYS AREA AT THIS HOUR...MAINLY OVER THE STRAITS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. TYPICAL OF KEY WEST SUMMER
IT WARM AND HUMID WITH 86 DEGREES AND A DEW POINT OF 75...THIS MAKE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 70 PERCENT AND A HEAT INDEX OF 95 DEGREES.

.FORECAST...
THE DOMINATING FACTOR IN THE FORECAST REMAINS THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...PLACING THE KEYS IN
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS RIDGE IS THE
REASON FOR THE INCREASING WINDS OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT PERTURBATIONS IN THE
FLOW CAUSE BREEZES TO PEAK AND LULL THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME ADDED MOISTURE WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
MOVING OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE
ENTERING THE AREA AND THE FLUCTUATING EAST WINDS...HAVE INTRODUCED
LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE RIDGE...AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. NO CHANGES IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE
DECREASING WINDS AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT TO SEA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS OVERNIGHT...WHILE ADDING THE REST OF THE KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SURGE AND LULL BUT REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO 20 KNOTS THE KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING...AND SPREAD OVER THE
WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO THE
AXIS OF LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1937...3.15 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
24 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  86  77  87 / 20 30 20 20
MARATHON  79  88  77  88 / 20 30 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.