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000
FXUS63 KLBF 252343
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE BEING ENJOYED ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HUMIDITY
REMAINS RATHER HIGH THOUGH...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR THE MOST PART...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ANY STORM THAT CAN SURVIVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT. MODELS STRUGGLING ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT...WITH SOME HAVING THE BOUNDARY UP IN
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW WITH THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE
EASTERN PARTS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN
FACT...IT IS MONDAY BEFORE THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS PICKING UP RETURN
MOISTURE AS FLOW COMES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME...A
THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS IN NEW MEXICO...COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.25 INCH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONT COMES THROUGH AND...WITH SYSTEM-RELATIVE
LIFT...PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -1C TO -3C...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOWEVER...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ON
THE HIGH PLAINS MAKES THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION APPROPRIATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR KBF AND KVTN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS NEAR 17Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG