Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 021816
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
116 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO
THE SERN STATES. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM TEXAS
NWD INTO NRN NEVADA. BROAD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDED FROM SWRN
CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CURRENT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD
PLUME OF MOISTURE LIFTING FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE SWRN CONUS. BASED
ON CURRENT IR IMAGERY...A BROAD SHIELD OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WAS PRESENT ACROSS SWRN NEBRASKA...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 26 AND
INTERSTATE 80. CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HAVE REMAINED OVER NERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM CLEAR IN NRN NEBRASKA TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN SWRN
NEBRASKA...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 61 AT THEDFORD TO 68 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR
TODAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOWS UP
NICELY AT H850 PER THE LATEST NAM 12 SOLN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT...ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 92 THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SERVE
AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS FAIRLY MEAGER
WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S DEW
POINTS...SB CAPES REACH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG INVOF THE FRONT BY 00Z
MONDAY. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS MEAGER COMPARED TO WHAT IS EXPECTED
IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...FELT ENOUGH EXISTED TO AT LEAST WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS LATER TODAY...GENERALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 61 CORRIDOR...SO ATTM ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP HAVE A
THREAT FOR BEING SEVERE MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 92. WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE...DECIDED TO LIMIT POPS TO
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS...DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF A LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS FOR HIGHS TODAY...I DID GO AHEAD AND
DECREASE THEM 2-4 DEGREES ACROSS NRN NEBRASKA AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MID 90S REMAIN ON TRACK ACROSS SWRN
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BUST IF THE
CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS
PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF UPPER LEVEL
WAVES THAT WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY CROSS THE AREA.

ON MONDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY...A MID LEVEL
FRONT AT H700MB WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SHARPEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AS AN INFLUX OF HIGHER MOISTURE/DEW POINTS POOL ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS
A RESULT...AND AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
INCREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
MONDAY NIGHT NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL HELP TO INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ASSOCIATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. THE AREA WHERE THIS IS SHOWN TO BE MOST FOCUSED IN THE
MODELS IS GENERALLY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 80 AND HIGHWAY 20...OR ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INCLUDING THE
SANDHILLS REGION. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW...BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE
STRONG ENOUGH THAT SOME STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE
HAIL/STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

SURFACE FRONT DOES LIFT NORTH SOME TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST AREA...AND LIKELY TO BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL COME TOGETHER
TUESDAY...AS CONVECTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAVE BEHIND REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...OR PERHAPS EVEN A MESOHIGH. ALSO...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NAM...THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE THAT IS TO CROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAVE THIS FORECAST
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS TUESDAY FORECAST...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE POPS WILL BE DECREASED A BIT WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THIS AREA.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...SUBTLE WAVES LIKELY TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL HIGH.
BUT...WITH DIFFICULTIES ALREADY SEEN IN FORECASTING STORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND BECOME EVEN LESS CLEAR. PATTERN
RECOGNITION HOWEVER SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT EACH
DAY...SO WILL CARRY IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DRY HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE HEART OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CU AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTED THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE SOUTH. ALL THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KVTN WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FURTHER
SOUTH...IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF...WILL BE
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIRECT IMPACT AT THE KLBF
TERMINAL DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT AND WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND IF A STORM APPEARS TO MOVE OVER THE
TERMINAL. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STORMS SHOULD BE EXITING/DIMINISHING.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK


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