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000
FXUS63 KLBF 091136 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
536 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE NEAR TERM. MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS HIGHLIGHTS WITH
WIND CHILLS. ALLIANCE HIT 30 BELOW AT 2 AM APPARENT T. PINE RIDGE
HIT ITS LOW TEMPERATURE AT 03Z AND HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY SINCE THEN
WITH HIGH DENSE CIRRUS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
VALENTINE DROPPED 3 DEGREES THIS LAST HOUR WITH WINDS PICKING UP.
KAIA CAME IN AT 32 BELOW AT 3AM CST SO WITH WINDS INCREASING AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO DROP AT KVTN WILL LEAVE HIGHLIGHTS AS IS
AND LET THE DAY SHIFT DROP AS NECESSARY. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH UPPER
500MB TROUGH PASSING OVER HEAD BY NOON CST. BUT FOR THE SNOW COVER
THERE COULD BE A CONSIDERABLE WARM UP. HAVE PUSHED THE ENVELOPE WITH
LOWER 20S OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD WITH UPPER RIDGE PUSHING EAST AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS ARE TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...WEAK WAA AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
A MODEST WARMUP...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY ECLIPSING THE MELTING POINT
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WHERE CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  MET NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR
TUESDAY IS SUSPECT...THAT BEING TOO WARM.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
REVEAL LIMITED MIXING...AND THE FACT THAT A FRESH SNOW COVER IS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT IT/S GUIDANCE FOR
NOW...TRENDING THE FORECAST TOWARD THE COOLEST MAV VALUES.  TUESDAY
NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER A PV MAX AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS...POSSIBLY SPARKING OFF A ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH.  WEAK LIFT IS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION WOULD SUGGEST A CASE WHERE A SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE EXISTS...AND WHERE LIFT IS NOTED IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  BEING THAT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS
RATHER COLD...WE MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR A PERIOD LIGHT
SNOWFALL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE POPS FROM 00Z UNTIL 12Z
WEDNESDAY.  THEREAFTER THE PV MAX RACES TO THE EAST WITH SOME
CLEARING ANTICIPATED.  HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK OWING TO COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1040MB SFC HIGH.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO THE MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST.

LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.  BOTH THE EC AND GFS
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
KEEP IT/S ENERGY WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA...THUS A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES
BEYOND 12Z WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LATE WEEK AS WAA
SPREADS EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  HIGHS MAY APPROACH
SEASONAL NORMS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.  LONG RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN THE
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
COOL BACK BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AS THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE CORN BELT.
BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE EC
MAINTAINING A 1040MB SFC HIGH JUST TO THE NE OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THUS PROVIDING FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.  THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH WAA FROM THE WEST AND KEEPS THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL TO
THE NORTH...THIS ALLOWS FOR A DECENT WARMUP.  WILL WAIT AND SEE
BEFORE GOING ALL IN ON ANY ONE PARTICULAR SOLUTION...BUT WILL COOL THE
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE OUTPUT A FEW DEGREES AS WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 40S
IS SUSPECT FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING TO 10 TO
20 MPH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR NEZ007-
009-010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.

WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>006-008-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER