Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 232014
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
314 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

For tonight, thunderstorm development and extent of severe potential
are the main concerns. Dryline surge now underway across eastern CO
as expected and developing warm front across southewest NE. Large
scale ascent will be increasing in the next couple hours which
should support isolated storms developing, and any that develop in
the environment near the boundaries mentioned will have the
potential to produce severe weather this evening. More widespread
thunderstorm coverage is expected after sunset as the main upper PV
anomaly will move out onto the Plains. Strong moisture advection
ahead of the southward advancing cold front will allow for a heavy
rain setup as well should storms form and remain near the large
scale boundaries.

The upper level low will track across Kansas on Friday. A
persistent deformation zone will remain centered from near
Imperial through North Platte and O`Neill. Areas 25 miles north
and south of this line will receive the heaviest rainfall. total
rainfall through Friday is forecast to range from an inch to an
inch and a half, with local amounts to exceed two inches. There
also remains some weak elevated instability supportive of
isolated thunder within the showers across the southeastern zones.
Colder 850mb temperatures within the deformation cool to around
0C, with the NAm the coldest model. This would be supportive of a
mix of rain or snow from mid morning through mid afternoon.
Current forecast still keeps precip type as all rain. Did lower
high temperatures a few degrees to the lower 40s within the area
of deformation as hourly temperatures during the day actually
dipping into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

As the upper level low moves east Friday night, the deformation
of rain will move east and end Friday evening. This weather
system should effectively end any drought conditions which
currently exist across southwest into central Nebraska.

Will need to monitor rainfall amounts, which are likely to cause
minor river rises, especially along the Platte River system.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist through next Thursday.
First, another upper trough and closed low will move across
northern Kansas on Sunday , with a chance for showers once again.
Next, a deep upper level trough will move across the intermountain
west Monday night, and move slowly east, possibly rotating into
the Central Plains through Thursday. This will keep a persistent
chance for showers to most of the area Monday night thorugh
Thursday. Highs in the lower 60s Monday, range slightly cooler in
the upper 50s Tuesday through Thursday. This remains slightly
cooler, yet near to slightly above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

IFR and MVFR ceilings continue near and east of a KVTN through
KLBF line. Expect improvement to VFR in the 19z-21z timeframe at
KLBF and KVTN. Areas to the east are likely to remain in at least
MVFR into this evening. As a storm system moves in tonight and
Friday, thunderstorms are forecast this evening, with rain
showers overnight and Friday. Rain will be heavy at times this
evening through Friday. IFR ceilings also forecast after 06z at
the terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg/Stoppkotte
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg



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