Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 031151
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
651 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

AT 08Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN WRN NEBR
BEHIND DEPARTING MCS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. WRN NEBR
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING
IN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF AN 850 MB JET.
TEMPERATURE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
SHOULD END ACROSS THE WEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON TO
RESIDE FROM NEAR LA JUNTA CO THROUGH GLD KS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS SCTRL NEBR. WRN NEBR WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WITH AN UPSLOPE NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT. WITH A FAIRLY
AMPLIFIES AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 1000-500MB THKNS
DIFLUENCE WILL BE LOCATED FROM WRN NEBR INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
AS AN H3 JET EXTENDS FROM AZ THROUGH CO. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. IN FACT...ONE OR TWO MCS/S ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NERN CO/SERN WY AND ALSO IN SWRN NEBR AND
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MODEL SIMILARITIES
SYNOPTICALLY...RESULTING OUTPUT DIFFERS LARGELY. USING A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SERN PNHDL AND SWRN NEBR WITH 30-50 POPS
ACROSS THE NCTRL. BY LATE AFTN...0-3KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO
AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS SWRN NEBR WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR IN THE
FRONT RANGE AREAS OF NERN CO AND SERN WY. 800MB COMPUTED CAPES
INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG BY EARLY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN
AVAILABLE OVERNIGHT. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL EXIST FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 WITH A SLIGHT
RISK ALL AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE GREATER
CONCERN COVERAGE WISE. DESPITE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN QPF...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FAVORS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WHERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH ARE LIKELY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IS AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OR PERSIST...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED BY THURSDAY WITH
A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG WEST COAST AND A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW ANCHORED OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS
AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS...AS WELL AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THEIR RECOVERY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONVECTION...WHICH MUDDLES THE
PICTURE FOR THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WEST ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE CORRIDOR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THEN TRACK EAST.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN SEVERE AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN
NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CREATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING AND HELPS PUSH THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE CWA AS IT VEERS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ACTIVE FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO TRANSITION AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH
BECOMES CUT-OFF....AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM.
THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STREAM
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. NUMEROUS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROMOTE
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS BETWEEN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
REGARDS TO PLACEMENT/AMPLITUDE/TIMING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BECOME MUCH MORE REFINED AS THESE DETAILS BECOME BETTER
RESOLVED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ACROSS SWRN NEBR
INCLUDING THE KLBF TERMINAL. VCTS UNTIL 14Z...THEN CHCS INCREASE
FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAIING THUNDERSTORMS BY 23Z
WITH A TEMPO FOR 2SM +TSRA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR CONDTIONS FORECAST AT KVTN...EXCEPT DEVELOPMENT
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 20Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE...AND NORTH
PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS REMAIN IN PLACE. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER
SYSTEMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. WHILE ROSCOE AND BRADY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE INTO THIS WEEKEND...THE STAGE
AT NORTH PLATTE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 12.80 FEET. AT THIS
LOCATION...A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY ARE FORECAST TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT LISCO THIS EVENING WHILE REMAINING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AT LEWELLEN. RIVER STAGES ARE FORECAST TO
FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE STAGE AT LEWELLEN IS
CURRENTLY 8.60 FEET...ABOVE THE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE OF 8.5 FEET.
THIS STILL REMAINS VERY NEAR THE PEAK STAGE DURING THE JUNE FLOODS
OF 2011.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND AGAIN AT TIMES INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND THIS RUNOFF COULD CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO
RISE IN SOME AREAS. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING FORECASTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG







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