Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 302359
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
759 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS KEPT THE WEATHER DRY AS FORECAST. A CIRRUS
SHIELD DID KEEP THE GULF BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING TODAY, SO THE WIND
ALONG THE GULF COAST NEVER TURNED WESTERLY AS THE HI-RES MODELS
INDICATED. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS PROGRESSING AS PROGGED. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE, EXCEPT TO INCREASE SKY COVER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. AN
EAST/WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO
PROMOTE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. SOME HINTS IN SHORT RANGE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE OF A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FEW MORE
STRATCUMULUS BASED NEAR FL030 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. RIGHT NOW
EXPECT VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
OVERNIGHT AT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS.

EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH MODERATE
SYNOPTIC EASTERLY WINDS TO KEEP THE GULF SEA BREEZE FROM
PENETRATING INLAND TO KAPF. WILL FORECAST PERSISTENCE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND KEEP WINDS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THERE...BUT IT
WILL AGAIN BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET THROUGH MONDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON. THIS WILL KEEP THE GENERALLY EAST
WIND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A STRONG
500MB TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE MID WEST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL WORK
TO WEAKEN THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE, AS WELL AS TURN THE WIND MORE
SOUTHERLY, BRINGING SOME MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH, LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST, OUT OF THE PLAINS, WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ALONG THIS FRONT WHICH
WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW, CENTERED OVER EASTERN MAINE, OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, WEST SOUTHWEST, CROSSING OVER COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA, BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, AND THEN OFF THE
GULF COAST OF TEXAS. BY TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY
MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, AND PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST, OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE STABILITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
WHICH, IN TURN, WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
GFS HAS A THIRD SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM. THIS ONE, OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IT DOES, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG AND DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER COLD FRONT, WHICH IN TURN
WOULD SPAWN ANOTHER SFC LOW, WHICH WOULD ACT TO PUSH THE ORIGINAL
FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE ECMWF HAS A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SCENARIO, BUT, A SIMILAR
OUTCOME. IT HAS A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA,
VIRGINIA AREA, AND MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IT ALSO HAS A SECONDARY FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH THE INITIAL FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IT ALSO HAS A WEAKER,
DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE SECOND FRONT ON FRIDAY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS TO MAKE LITTLE
DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. BASICALLY INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, CAUSE CHANCES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THE FRONT LOOKS TO DO
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURES, ONLY BRINGING THE HIGHS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE
NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AND INCREASE ITS SPEED TO AROUND 15 KTS. THIS
WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD SOMEWHAT BY NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN
THE OFF SHORE WATERS, AND IN THE GULF STREAM. ALSO, WITH THE WIND
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY, THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL DIMINISH BY MID WEEK FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  86  75  86 /   0  10  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  86  77  86 /   0  10  10  20
MIAMI            75  87  77  86 /   0  10  10  20
NAPLES           70  89  71  88 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI



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