Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 290543 AAC
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
143 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.AVIATION...
The winds will be light and variable through the morning hours
before increasing from the east around 10 knots along the east
coast taf sites. The winds over KAPF taf site will also remain
light and variable through the morning hours before going westerly
around 10 knots in the afternoon hours. Any showers or
thunderstorms that do develop this afternoon will be over the
interior areas and away from the taf sites. Therefore, the taf
sites will remain dry along with VFR conditons today.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 818 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017/

UPDATE...
Forecast remains dry with winds light and variable overnight. A
wildfire in northern Broward County may cause some reduced
visibility over some roadways in western Broward and northern
Miami- Dade counties, including US-27 and I-75 tonight. Otherwise
no other updates to the current forecast.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 729 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017/

AVIATION...East coast seabreeze stubborn this afternoon, and
most sites may continue oscillating between ESE and W through
sunset. Light/VRB winds overnight becoming light WNW in the
morning. Fog/smoke may be a concern near FXE/OPF due to an ongoing
brush fire northwest of these sites, but confidence is too low to
mention at this time. Gulf sea breeze will move through Naples by
midday tomorrow with east coast seabreeze expected to push inland
a little quicker (17Z-18Z) at most sites tomorrow.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today and Tonight: High pressure continues to dominate
across South Florida with dry conditions and warm temperatures and
highs in the mid 90s. Miami International Airport has already
set an all-time month of May record high of 97 degrees. Tonight
expect temperatures to be in the mid 70s along the Gulf coast into
the upper 70s along the east coast.

Short Term (Monday-Tuesday): Weather pattern does not change much
tomorrow with temperatures in the 90s and heat index values in the
100 to 105 range. The sea breeze will move in a little quicker
tomorrow perhaps knocking 1 or 2 degrees off the highs along the
east coast. High pressure gradually moves east through the early
part of the week, resulting in a more east southeast flow. This will
allow the east coast sea breeze to move through the metro areas and
focus showers and storms near the Lake Okeechobee and interior
regions Tuesday.

Long Term (Wednesday-Sunday): High pressure located over the
Atlantic with a ridge across North Central Florida. Moisture will
increase with a prominent southeast flow across the region. This
will bring South Florida PWATs around 2 inches. This will increase
shower and thunderstorm chances and coverage. A more summer type
pattern of showers and thunderstorms concentrating during the
afternoon and evening across the interior and Gulf coast areas.
Meanwhile, east coastal areas will see showers and storms during the
night and morning hours.

MARINE...
A light to moderate SE wind around 10 to 15 knots will develop and
persist through the work week. Seas will be generally 2 to 4
feet. Chances for scattered thunderstorms will be on the increase
by mid to late week.

FIRE WEATHER... Dry air and low relative humidity values below
critical levels continue this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for Glades and Hendry counties and inland
sections of Collier County from until 7 PM. Similar conditions
expected on Monday and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
Glades and Hendry counties. Collier County seems to remain above
critical values for Monday but will monitor this closely. Model
trends continue to improve moisture and RH values above critical
levels beginning on Tuesday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  77  93  78  90 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  80  91  80  89 /  10  10  10  10
Miami            79  92  79  90 /  10  10  20  20
Naples           76  93  75  92 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this
     evening for FLZ063-066.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...33/Kelly
DISCUSSION...33/Kelly
MARINE...33/Kelly
AVIATION...54/BNB






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