Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 270538
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1238 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST TO
THE NAPLES AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD.

THE WINDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE
SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED EARLIER THIS
EVENING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  69  82  73 /  50  30  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  70  80  72 /  40  20  50  20
MIAMI            78  69  82  71 /  30  20  40  20
NAPLES           74  61  84  68 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE


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