Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 251443
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1043 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SMALL, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
MOVING ONSHORE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, THEN MOSTLY PUSH TO THE INTERIOR AREAS, AND WEST, AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND MID DAY. AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES TODAY, THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME LARGER AND A FEW MAY
TURN INTO THUNDERSTORM SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
BRISK EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND MAY GET
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A COUPLE STORMS COULD GET IN THE VICINITY OF KAPF THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER ACROSS MOST
OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DRIVE THE PATTERN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. AFTER TODAY, PWATS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, NOT REBOUNDING UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. LOWER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HIGHER FREEZING LEVEL,
SMALLER PWATS AND A WEAKER GULF BREEZE, LIKELY LED TO LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY WITH WEAKER STORMS OVERALL. THAT
TREND MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE TODAY IF A SIMILAR AIR MASS IS
OBSERVED, AS EXPECTED, WITH THE 12Z RAOB. SOMEWHAT STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL AGAIN GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND THE RIP CURRENT HIGH RISK STATEMENT CONTINUES.

THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS RATHER TRANQUIL, WITH POPS NO GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT MAINLY ON THE WEST COAST. WINDS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS WEAKEN INTO FRIDAY, AS HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY AND THE RIDGE
COMPLEX ERODES AND MOVES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND
DIRECTION WILL NOT BE FROM THE EAST THROUGH H5 THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. ON SATURDAY, A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH
FROM CUBA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. H5 WINDS FROM THE S AND SSE
WILL RESULT, TRANSPORTING DEEPER 500MB MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THUS, MORE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PWATS MOVING CLOSER
TO 1.75". A NEW UPPER TROUGH MAY ENTER THE GULF COAST STATES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

MARINE...

SURFACE EASTERLIES REIGN THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE CLOSE TO 20
KTS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. AS USUAL, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE WIND
SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST, SO WILL
INCREASE MODEL OUTPUT BY AT LEAST A FEW KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  76 /  30  30  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  78 /  30  20  10  10
MIAMI            89  78  88  76 /  30  20  10  10
NAPLES           92  73  93  71 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....21/KM



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