Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 221800
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
100 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT LOW STRATUS EPISODE
OVERNIGHT.  HAVE INCLUDED SCT015 GROUP FOR NOW.

WINDS TODAY JUST E OF DUE SOUTH AT 10-15 KTS. STILL SOME RISK
WINDS WILL GO SSW...BUT BEST LIKELIHOOD WONT BE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN SPEEDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 5 KTS. LIGHT
MAINLY SSE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS
EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

UPDATE...
A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA AS A WARM FRONT TODAY...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH AN INVERSION AROUND 900MB. DRIER
LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. SO REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY. IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE
MUGGIER OUTSIDE TODAY AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AREAWIDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EXTENSIVE
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AFT 14Z, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CU DEVELOPMENT AND THERE COULD BE SOME
VFR CIGS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE NEAR DUE S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA BUT THINKING IS THAT WITH SOME HEATING THE SEA BREEZE WILL
TRY TO SET UP ALONG BOTH COASTS AND THE DIRECTION COULD BECOME SSE
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SSW AT KAPF. LATE IN THE FORECAST, THE
SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE FORECAST IS SHOWING A LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CIGS/LOW
VSBY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. OPTED TO NOT PLACE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL MONITOR LATER RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY
BEFORE ADDING. /KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA, WILL MOVE INTO GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA AS A WARM FRONT, TODAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT`S WEAK DISTURBANCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE
ENDED, CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW MORE THIS MORNING ACROSS GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, PWATS WILL ACTUALLY DROP A BIT OR REMAIN STEADY TODAY AND
TUESDAY, AS A PORTION OF THE MIDLEVEL DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR,
CREATED BY THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN, GETS
PULLED NORTH. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN, BUT THIS SLICE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR MAY PRECLUDE MUCH IF ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL AIRMASS AT THE ONSET OF WINTER, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F.

WITH THE COLD FRONT AGAIN DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY PER
THE ECMWF, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY
FALL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CITIES OF THE
EAST COAST, ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND
DELIVERS MUCH MORE RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 2", WHICH IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SOMEWHAT EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
UNIMPRESSIVE, SPC MENTIONS A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE ENTIRE
PENINSULA, AND THERE COULD BE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IF INSTABILITY
INCREASES, THUS THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR THUNDER. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE EAST
COAST, WHICH MAY ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THE
BLENDS ARE SUGGESTING FOR MAX T.

ECMWF/GFS ARE RATHER SIMILAR FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD/WESTERN ATLANTIC,
WITH ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED UPPER RIDGE NEAR CUBA. SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE EAST COAST. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ARE ABOUT 24 HRS APART WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DWINDLING COLD FRONT
ACROSS FLORIDA, MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING, RESPECTIVELY.

MARINE...

SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  81  73  81 /  10  10  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  81  74  82 /  10  10  10  20
MIAMI            71  82  73  82 /  10  10  10  30
NAPLES           67  80  70  79 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...23/SK


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