Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 270732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
332 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

...Another hot Summer day across South Florida...
...Moderate Risk of RIP Currents along the Atlantic Beaches...

The Bermuda high has settled over Florida this week, stifling
afternoon convection and creating warm days. Today will be another
hot day, with heat index values expected to rise above 100 across
the area. Some portions of interior Southwest Florida could see
heat index values exceed 105. Hydration and frequent rest from the
heat are the messages for today, Thursday, and potentially Friday.
This pattern will allow the southeasterly to easterly flow across
the area to continue, which will focus convection in the
afternoons and evenings along the interior and pin the Gulf sea
breeze in Southwest Florida. Overnight and in the mornings,
Atlantic showers and storms coming in with the easterly flow will
give the east coast metro a chance of some rain. An isolated
strong storm cannot be ruled out, but the main threats from
convection appear to be lightning, the potential for waterspouts,
heavy rain, and gusty winds.

The pattern begins to change for the weekend, as the High shifts
slightly back into the Atlantic ahead of a frontal system moving
across the eastern third of the nation. This should allow deeper
moisture to return across our area, providing some slightly less
oppressive temperatures and higher chances of rain. The front
currently looks to stall well to the north and west of our region.
As the weekend draws to a close and the next work week begins,
both the 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF are confident that a tropical wave
will near the Greater Antilles with a surge of moisture pushing
across southern Florida to conclude the extended period by mid-
next week. The wave would bring increased rain chances to our
region. Confidence in the timing and ability of a feature like a
tropical wave to survive across the Atlantic over a week out is
not high enough to include more than a 50% chance of rain in the
extended. Some of the guidance is suggesting higher confidence in
this wave bringing our area some needed rain, but we will need to
monitor the progress of this feature and follow the forecast
evolution over the coming week.


Easterly to southeasterly flow continues as high pressure sits
over the region. Overnight and morning convection appears to be a
continuing trend over the waters in the coming days, with the Gulf
waters being favored for afternoon and evening convection. Some
portions of the outer southern waters could see winds in excess of
15 knots today, necessitating a short fuse SCEC. The increased
easterly to southeasterly flow is also create a moderate risk of
RIP currents along the Atlantic beaches today.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 130 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016/

VFR flying conditions should prevail at the TAF sites through the
period ending 06z Thursday. VCSH will impact the east coast TAF
sites through 14z, with dry conditions expected for the remainder
of the TAF period with shower/storm activity focused across the
interior and Gulf Coast. Have introduced VCSH at KAPF beginning at
17z, although bulk of activity should remain to the north and

Fairly strong Atlantic east/southeast sea breeze will develop
again today, with winds by the mid morning hours becoming 10-15
knots, with occasional gusts around 20 knots possible at the east
coast TAF sites continuing into the early evening hours. With a
strong east/southeast flow in place, KAPF will likely see a
southeast flow, with formation of the Gulf sea breeze being


West Palm Beach  92  82  92  80 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  90  82  91  81 /  20  10  20  10
Miami            92  82  91  81 /  20  20  30  20
Naples           94  77  93  77 /  40  10  40  10


.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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