Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 212035
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
335 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The large upper level ridge centered off to our northeast will
continue to dominate the weather across South Florida. This ridge
is continuing to strengthen which will lead to similar weather
conditions for tonight into Thursday. With the area of high
pressure strengthening, the pressure gradient will continue to
increase as well which will lead to breezy easterly flow for
Thursday. A weak disturbance will rotate around this area of high
pressure, which will provide an increase in low level moisture
later tonight into Thursday. Latest computer model guidance
continues to show the bulk of this moisture staying to the south
in the Keys and the Florida Straits, however, there will be enough
to support a slight chance of showers during the day on Thursday.

The breezy easterly flow will lead to a lack of Gulf breeze
development. This will allow for high temperatures Thursday to
climb into the upper 80s across the western interior. The eastern
side will remain closer to normal with high temperatures reaching
the lower to mid 80s on Thursday.

Latest computer model guidance shows the upper level ridge
beginning to weaken on Friday and into this weekend as the center
slides to the west across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Passing low level disturbances will bring pockets of higher
moisture into the region which will allow for some periods of
showers mainly across the Atlantic waters and east coast.
Temperatures will continue to be in the low to mid 80s during the
day, with overnight lows in the 60s over the interior and Gulf
and low 70s along the east coast.

As the ridge continues to weaken early next week, it will allow an
approaching cold front from the north to make it closer to South
Florida. Models continue to differ on how far south this will be,
but the GFS at least suggests that it may come close enough to
bring an increase in rain chances after Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across
the Atlantic and Gulf waters through the end of the week. Moderate
east to southeast winds will continue with wind speeds of 10 to 15
knots for the Gulf and 15 to 20 knots for the Atlantic. Wave
heights across the Gulf will generally be between 1 and 3 feet,
while across the Atlantic they will be between 3 and 5 feet.
Occasional Atlantic showers are expected through most of the
period.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk of rip currents on
the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  71  81  71  81 /  20  20  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  74  80  73  80 /  20  20  30  20
Miami            72  82  72  82 /  20  20  30  20
Naples           67  85  67  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...55/CWC
MARINE...55/CWC
BEACH FORECAST...55/CWC






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