Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 281159
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
759 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.AVIATION...
High pressure over the region will keep VFR in the forecast for
all TAF sites through the TAF period. The sea breeze is forecast
to develop mid day along both coasts, and weaken around sunset.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the forecast at this time. Only minor
changes were to account for current conditions, such as the
showers off the Atlantic coast. otherwise, the forecast is on
track at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Today-Thursday: Radar is showing a few sprinkles and light showers
over the Atlantic waters this morning where the light offshore
land breeze is interacting with the broader light easterly flow. A
brief sprinkle may reach land before daybreak, but otherwise dry
conditions will prevail.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control for
much of the week, with tranquil and generally dry weather
continuing across South Florida. Mostly sunny skies will prevail,
with some afternoon cumulus development as both the Gulf and east
coast seabreezes develop and move inland. The main concern will
be the potential for patchy radiational fog development over the
interior and Gulf coast the next few nights

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Thursday,
especially for the interior where the seabreezes will be late to
reach. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s for east and Gulf coasts,
and upper 80s to near 90 for the interior. Lows will generally be in
the 60s, though some east coast locations may linger closer to 70.

Friday-Sunday: While details between the GFS and ECMWF differ, both
continue to show an upper level low and associated surface low
crossing the Central Plains mid week before lifting out through the
OH/TN valleys and into the east coast late week.

The GFS has a broader and more disorganized mid-level system, with
more of the energy split between the main features crossing the
plains and a southern extension moving through Northern Mexico and
Texas into the Gulf. This results in a stronger and further south
surface low and front crossing the Gulf into the FL peninsula Friday
and Saturday. The ECMWF keeps a more coherent upper level low
crossing the plains with a weaker southern extension, and as a
result most of the energy lifts further north up the east coast and
a much weaker front moves into FL. Other ensemble members support a
forecast closer to the ECMWF with a weaker front moving through
Florida.

Timing-wise, it now appears most of Friday will remain dry under
very warm and breezy south-southeast flow. Showers will overspread
the region later in the day, with the potential continuing overnight
and into Saturday as the boundary slows down. Given the warm
daytime temperatures and an active southern stream jet, even with
the less robust ECMWF solution, a few thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out. Drier conditions arrive for Sunday as the front moves
out, though little change in temperature is expected.

MARINE...Favorable boating conditions are expected through much of
the week as high pressure continues to build into the state from the
northeast. East-southeast winds 10 knots or less are expected
through Thursday, with the Gulf coast breeze bringing winds around
to the west-northeast along the coast each afternoon. Seas generally
2ft or less.

The next marine concerns may begin Thursday night into Friday as
south-southeasterly flow strengthens ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary along with building seas in the Atlantic.

FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and light easterly winds are expected
through much of the week, with the Gulf and east coast seabreezes
developing and moving inland each afternoon, though speeds will
generally remain 10 mph or less. Warm temperatures are expected,
especially over the interior where afternoon temperatures may reach
to 90 degrees in some locations. This will allow relative humidity
values to drop to 35-40 percent over the interior each afternoon
through Thursday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  82  65  83  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  82  69  82  70 /   0   0   0   0
Miami            83  68  84  69 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           82  65  84  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...13
AVIATION...13


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