Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 101743
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1243 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

.AVIATION...
Atlantic showers will continue to spread across the east coast
terminals, particularly MIA, OPF, and TMB, this afternoon and
evening. MVFR cigs are expected, with bouts of IFR cigs and vsbys
with heavy rain showers. Some sites could improve to VFR briefly,
mainly PBI. APF should remain MVFR or better. Gusty northeasterly
to easterly flow is expected through much of the period. MVFR
cigs could linger into Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 945 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016/

..Risk of flooding along east coast metro today...

UPDATE...
Training showers have provided almost 4 inches of rain over
portions of southeastern Broward County this morning including
the cities of Hollywood, Dania Beach, West Park, and Hallandale.
As of right now, only minor street flooding has been reported by
the City of Hollywood. As we come off high tide, coastal drainage
should improve but the continuing potential for showers to push
southwestward from the Atlantic waters over this already drenched
area could produce additional flooding. Do not believe a Flood
Watch is necessary for coastal or metro Broward at this point, but
will monitor the situation.

Otherwise, this morning`s update features higher rain chances
along the east coast metro and an extension of the Small Craft
Advisory through late tonight/early Sunday over the Gulf waters.
Updated zones have been transmitted with the latest forecast
adjustments. Kept the mention of thunderstorms out of the forecast
at this time since instability looks to be somewhat lacking due to
the cloud cover from this morning`s showers. Any lightning will be
very isolated, but the chances are not zero at this point.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 643 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016/

AVIATION...
Ongoing scattered showers across eastern terminals are likely to
persist through the day, occasionally bringing MVFR CIG/VSBY.
Except this morning, when through about 14z, cannot rule out some
IFR CIGs. For now, TEMPO groups account for these restrictions as
confidence and expected duration are too low too warrant
prevailing MVFR or IFR conditions. Offshore flow this morning at
around 10 KT will become NE by late morning, with speeds
increasing to at least 15 KT, gusts in excess of 25 KT possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING/...

As of 340 AM EST...The cold frontal boundary that moved south
across the region yesterday is now located south of the Florida
Straits, with high pressure building to the north across much of
the southeast CONUS. Despite some drier air continuing to filter
in from the north with PWATs down to around 1.5 inches based off
the 00z observed KMFL sounding, there still remains a fair amount
of low-level moisture, aided by a strengthening northeast flow
off the Atlantic.

This weather pattern will persist throughout the day today, yielding
mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers especially along the east
coast. While most of the activity will be light in nature, and even
drizzly at times, a few showers will be capable of producing periods
of moderate to brief heavy rain which could lead to some ponding of
water on roadways in metro areas. Despite much of the day featuring
plenty of clouds, there will still be some periods of sun across the
region, especially over portions of the interior and Gulf coast.

The northeasterly flow will be breezy and gusty at times, especially
along the immediate Atlantic coast where winds of 15-25 mph will be
common along with gusts of 25-35 mph. At this time, winds look to
remain under advisory criteria with boundary layer mixing limited
somewhat by the abundant cloud cover, but will continue to monitor
throughout the course of the day. High temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday, ranging from the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Breezy east to northeast flow will prevail through much of the
short term period, with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers
especially along the east coast. The flow will begin to shift more
southeasterly beginning Monday, along with shower activity
becoming more widely scattered in nature.

Temperatures will moderate back to normal for Sunday with highs
Sunday ranging from the upper 70s to near 80 and lows Sunday night
ranging from the 60s to near 70. Temperatures will continue to
moderate Monday, with highs into the 80s for most areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Long range guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement with
more tranquil weather returning to the region as weak high pressure
builds across the region from the north. This high pressure will
help decrease winds across the region and shift the flow to
east/southeast. Widely scattered showers will still remain possible
across the region, especially across portions of the east coast
metro. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for mid-
December.

MARINE...
Hazardous marine and small craft advisory conditions likely through
the weekend across the local Gulf and Atlantic waters...

A tight pressure gradient between a frontal boundary south of the
Florida Straits and high pressure to the north will yield a period
of gusty northeast winds across the local waters through the weekend
and into Monday. Wind speeds will generally be in the 20-25 knot
range over the local Gulf and Atlantic waters, including Biscayne
Bay, with the potential for occasional gale force gusts over the
Atlantic. Rough seas can also be expected through the weekend with
seas of 7-10 feet over the Atlantic and 5-7 feet in the offshore
Gulf waters.

Winds will shift easterly beginning Sunday and decrease somewhat,
but still be around 20 knots. Winds will continue to shift to the
southeast by Monday with the flow gradually decreasing and marine
conditions improving by late Monday with decreasing winds and
seas.

BEACH FORECAST...
High risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches through Sunday...

A gusty northeast flow will lead to a High Risk of rip currents for
the Atlantic beaches today through Sunday and likely continuing
into early Monday as well. Rip current risk for the Atlantic
beaches will begin to decrease beginning late Monday and into
Tuesday as the flow shifts to the southeast and weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  70  80  72  84 /  40  40  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  70  79  72  83 /  50  50  30  20
Miami            70  79  72  84 /  50  50  30  20
Naples           63  82  68  84 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

AVIATION...02/RAG



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