Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 032000
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS ROTATION WITHIN STORMS INTERSECTING THESE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORNING MFL SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRYING
IN THE MID- LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. ALSO FREEZING LEVELS ARE A BIT HIGHER WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
H5 TEMPERATURES. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL HELP FACILITATE LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BUILDING IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK SAHARAN DUST LAYER. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE OVERALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE ECMWF
CURRENTLY DEPICTS A STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE SAL INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE DRIEST AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE KEYS. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THEN RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM H5
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABORAD GRADUALLY
WEAKENING MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. AN OUTFLOW OBSERVABLE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA MAY TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE AND HOW STRONG. SO
FOR NOW LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS BUT MAY HAVE TO
AMEND IF DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHENS OR BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE FLOW IS NEARLY DUE SOUTH BUT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL
POSSIBLY KEEP DIRECTION FROM THE SSE AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS.

KOB

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH
DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  79  90 /  30  40  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  30  30  20  40
MIAMI            78  91  79  92 /  30  30  10  40
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...30/KOB



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