Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 270828

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
428 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Synopsis: Deep-layer trough will remain focused to the west of
Florida into the weekend. A cold front will enter North Florida
Wednesday and gradually stall as far south as Central Florida.
South Florida will remain warm and humid with good chances for

Short Term /Today through Thursday/:
Early morning WV imagery depicts plume of dry air on the west side
of a mid/upper level trough axis in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. On
its east side, abundant moisture is streaming NEward across the
Florida Peninsula. Radar has been relatively echo-free overnight,
but there is some convection over the Florida Straits. Will be
monitoring this northward propagating activity, as some mesoscale
guidance suggest the convection will persist and enter South
Florida after daybreak. Not entirely sold on this, but have
boosted POPs in to the 30 percent range across southern half of
CWA this morning.

Aforementioned trough will gradually weaken over the next couple
of days, but still maintain its influence on South Florida by
bringing deep-layer southwesterly flow to the region through at
least Wednesday. This will cause the typical warm season diurnal
convection to tend to move toward the east coast over the course
of the afternoon. Expect this scattered to numerous activity both
this and Wednesday afternoons to be least prevalent along the Gulf
coast, where easy sea-breeze intrusion will take place fairly
early today. Environment both days is expected to be conducive to
support widespread strong convection, but isolated activity cant
be ruled out, and with high PWATs for this time of year,
torrential downpours and locally heavy rainfall could occur.

Thursday will be a bit of a transition day as the southwesterly
flow, at least at low levels wanes and a diminishing cold front
enters the Florida panhandle. This will cause the most significant
thunderstorm chances to be away from both coasts, as both sea-
breezes should be about equally effective at moving inland.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/:
The weak front that enters North Florida earlier will gradually
stall, perhaps as far south as Central Florida by weeks end, and
then dissipate entirely by late weekend. This will keep South
Florida in deep moisture and warm temperatures. Scattered afternoon
convection will continue to be the rule into early next week, and
overall lift, especially north of the region, will be enhanced by
broad closed mid and upper level low pressure that will meander
over the Ohio Valley during the period. Closer to the surface,
easterly and northeasterly flow will take hold as high pressure
ridge along the eastern seaboard builds toward South Florida.


Winds and seas will be below critical conditions through the
weekend. Scattered convection will bring the threat of locally
higher seas and gusty and erratic winds, as well as potential


Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail during the early
morning hours, although an isolated shower or a thunderstorm could
pop up and will amend if needed if sub-VFR conditions occur, but
low confidence. Light southwesterly flow is expected to build into
the region this morning, but should not inhibit Atlantic coast sea
breeze from developing around 16Z, with all South Florida
terminals assigned VCTS at that time as deep tropical moisture
continues across the region.



West Palm Beach  89  74  90  74 /  50  30  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  87  76  89  76 /  50  30  50  20
Miami            87  75  90  76 /  60  30  50  20
Naples           86  75  89  76 /  40  20  30  20




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