Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 282352
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
752 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...

The early evening POP`s were reduced to reflect the dissipating
evening convection. Currently there is only one lingering
thunderstorm in Southwest Miami Dade. Otherwise...forecast
remains on track.

60

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR expected through the period, though some convection affecting a
terminal could produce brief MVFR or even IFR conditions. Overnight,
winds may be lighter which could produce some variability at some
terminals. After sunrise, easterly flow should pick up at most
terminals with a Gulf sea breeze expected to develop and push
through APF mid-morning into the afternoon. Another round of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is possible again on
Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A surface trough extends into the Florida peninsula with newly
named Tropical Storm Bonnie still southeast of the South Carolina
coast. In addition recent water vapor imagery indicates an upper
level low centered roughly across the northwest Bahamas islands.
The upper level low is an extension of an upper level trough that
extends from the mid-west into the southeast and the adjacent Gulf
and Atlantic waters.

Forecast through Memorial Day...the global models generally
depict a plume of deep layered moisture extending southwestward of
Tropical Storm Bonnie and across South Florida and adjacent
Atlantic waters. This deep layered moisture is forecast to linger
across South Florida through the remainder of the weekend and into
Memorial Day...with forecast soundings indicating pwat`s around
the range of 1.6 to 1.9 inches through this period. The global
models also indicate an upper level trough persisting across the
southeastern states and across the Florida Straits and the
Florida peninsula. For the over night and morning periods...with
the presence of the upper level low and inherent uncertainties
forecasting their effect on potential for convection...departed
from guidance over the Atlantic waters and Atlantic metro areas
and added slight chance of thunderstorms with the guidance
indicating little chance. For the afternoon periods...scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly over the interior
regions with the greatest coverage forecast across the interior
regions on Sunday afternoon. Also added slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms across the Atlantic waters and Atlantic
metro areas during the afternoon periods with the presence of the
upper level trough...again departing from guidance but need to
emphasize the uncertainties as well.

Rip currents...given lack of any local swells and lighter regional
winds a slight risk of rip currents is expected across the
Atlantic coast beaches through the remainder of the holiday
weekend and Memorial Day.

Forecast for Tuesday through Friday...latest guidance consensus
indicates the aforementioned upper level trough lingering through
mid week with diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms forecast
Tuesday through Friday...with greatest coverage across the
interior regions.

MARINE...

Winds and seas forecast to be well below critical levels through
the forecast period. For the remainder of the holiday
weekend...winds are forecast to be 10 knots or less and generally
easterly with Gulf seas 2 feet or less and Atlantic and Gulf
Stream waters 2 to 3 feet although early Monday morning Gulf
Stream seas east of Palm Beach County could reach near 4 feet if
the winds become northeasterly as forecast early monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  74  87  73  88 /  20  30  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  72  85  74  88 /  20  30  20  30
Miami            74  88  74  89 /  30  40  20  40
Naples           72  88  73  89 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...02/RG



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