Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 200804
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
404 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT: Not too much change in the overall pattern from
yesterday. Water vapor satellite and analysis show the moisture
gradient across the region with deeper moisture pooled along the
leftover boundary draped across the lake with drier air to south
over the straits. Mid level temps remain on the warm side of normal
across the region.

Convective evolution looks similar to yesterday, with a few showers
and storms initially along the boundary this morning, then more
scattered as both seabreezes move inland later this afternoon. Most
convection dies a few hours after sunset, but as with this past
evening, showers and a few storms will likely linger near the
boundary overnight.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: The latest forecast track for Hurricane
Maria takes it as a major hurricane near the Turks and Caicos and
just east of the Bahamas late this week and through the weekend.
Hurricane Jose will continue to move further north and away from the
region late in the week, allowing very weak high pressure to build
in. The result will be moderate east-northeasterly flow across South
Florida, becoming breezy along the east coast on Saturday as Maria
makes it`s closest approach well to our east. Weak upper level
trough, then upper level low is expected to meander over the
northern Gulf of Mexico through this period as well.

While flow may be light enough for a Gulf breeze on Thursday, it
looks too strong for one on Friday and Saturday. With deeper
available moisture, and cooler temperatures aloft, overall pattern
looks a little more wet and unstable than the past few days.
However, overall coverage will still be near seasonal norms. This
flow pattern suggests scattered overnight showers over the Atlantic
and east coast, with better coverage of showers and storms over the
interior and Gulf coast during the afternoons and evenings.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Subsidence around Maria will lead to a drier
forecast on Sunday as it tracks northwards to our east. Flow becomes
west-northwest into early next week as the storm moves north of our
latitude, pulling down a considerably drier airmass. It looks like
scattered showers and a few storms at best during this time frame,
with the potential for completely dry days with lower RH values as
we head into next week.

While the track of Maria is expected to remain well to our east,
continue to keep a close eye on the forecast over the next several
days. In the meantime, it is always a good idea to review hurricane
plans and to restock any items used during Hurricane Irma as we
continue to remain in the middle of hurricane season.

&&

.MARINE...Long period northeasterly swell from distant Hurricane
Jose will continue to filter into the local Atlantic waters.
Cautionary conditions are expected in the waters off Palm Beach
County into Thursday, with seas 4-6ft, occasionally 7ft today.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, seas will be 3-5 ft. Gulf waters will be
2-3ft today well offshore, then 2ft or less the remainder of the
week. Winds will be somewhat light and variable today, allowing both
seabreezes to form this afternoon. Winds become east-northeast 10-
15kts by Thursday.

There will be the potential for advisory level winds and seas in the
local Atlantic this weekend as Maria moves northwards well to our
east.

&&

.AVIATION...The winds will remain light and variable early this
morning before increasing from the east around 10 knots over the
east coast taf sites. KAPF taf site will become westerly late this
morning into this afternoon with speeds around 10 knots.

The weather should remain dry over most of the taf sites today, as
the shower and thunderstorm activity will be over the interior
areas. However, there could be some showers around the KPBI taf
sites early this morning, and around KAPF taf site this afternoon.
The ceiling and vis should remain in the VFR condition.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...Long period northeasterly swell from the distant
Hurricane Jose will continue to filter through the local Atlantic
waters. A high risk of rip currents will continue for all the
Atlantic beaches through this evening, and likely remain moderate to
high into late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  91  75  89  77 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  91  78  90  79 /  20  10  20  30
Miami            92  78  92  79 /  20  10  20  20
Naples           92  76  92  76 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...88/ALM
MARINE...88/ALM
AVIATION...54/BNB
BEACH FORECAST...88/ALM





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