Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 272322 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
622 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
28.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CIGS WAS SPILLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
BASES AT VFR CATEGORIES. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES SLOWLY TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...MEANWHILE MAINTAINING A DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN STATES.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH MAINLY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY BELOW NORMAL AND MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S. /29

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE
500 MB FLOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. SOME CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 700 MB SO THIS
FEATURE WON`T PROVIDE MUCH RAINFALL PROSPECTS. BY SUNDAY THE RETURN
FLOW WILL COMMENCE BUT NOT MUCH FORCING WILL BE PRESENT SO DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND IN THE 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT. /77

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...BECOMING STATIONARY
AND UNDERGOING SLOW FRONTOLYSIS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THAT HAPPENS THE
VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND CIRCULATION WILL WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURE
FIELDS WILL FLATTEN...MEANING ONLY A CHANCE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THAT PERIOD STARTING LATE MONDAY AND THAT BEING MAINLY TO
THE NORTH EVEN WITH OCCASIONAL TRANSIENT PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER
FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY BE 1.25 OR SO INCHES ALTHOUGH CAPE
WILL CLIMB TO 1200 J/KG. OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD IN
FROM THE EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S MONDAY THEN MID 70S
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A REBOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS FROM
MID 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COASTAL ALL WEEK. /77

MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND SWITCHING
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
MAINLY FOR THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE OFFSHORE FLOW SUBSIDES
SUFFICIENTLY. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. /29

FIRE...A LARGE HIGH WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20S
MAKING IT MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY...AND A SLIGHT
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DISPERSION ON SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY...75 TO 105 INSIDE A LINE FROM
NEAR CAMDEN TO FRISCO CITY TO ATMORE ALABAMA...TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THEN NORTH TO LUVERNE ALABAMA...AND 40S TO 70S
ELSEWHERE. THESE LOCATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE
HUMIDITY VALUES MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...FOR FIRE SAFETY
REASONS...DISPERSION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. NO
FOG EXPECTED. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  66  46  69  56 /  05  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   43  64  46  66  58 /  00  05  05  05  10
DESTIN      45  63  47  66  59 /  00  05  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   36  61  39  69  51 /  05  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  36  65  41  71  53 /  05  05  10  05  10
CAMDEN      36  60  39  70  53 /  05  05  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   36  65  41  67  49 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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