Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 011019
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
419 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...STARTING OFF THE MORNING WITH A
FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE A
COMPLEX HIGH LEVEL PATTERN RESIDES OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH LEVEL
ENERGY WAS DIGGING A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE A
POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS TRACKING SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS MOVED TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST US COAST WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE EASING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAM DYNAMICS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS
ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CENTRAL
PLAINS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY...TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
ASCENT WITHIN AN AIRMASS THAT SHOWS MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THUS...CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE IN THE NEAR TERM.
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO FAVORS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER MIXED IN AT TIMES. THE LATEST WIND PROFILE FORECASTS
INDICATE VEERING IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET TODAY...THAT WHEN COMBINED
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS
OVER THE INTERIOR COULD ALSO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO BRIEF SEVERE
STORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN ANY OF
THESE. SOMETHING FORECASTERS WILL BE WATCHING THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES...STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING FRONT...WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST
TODAY. ALMOST SPRINGLIKE TOO WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM 67 TO 70
ON AVERAGE. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND THE HIGH TIDAL RANGES
ALSO FAVORS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS TODAY.

COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS A LOWERING TREND TO
TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
TUESDAY MORNING...SLIGHTLY WEAKENING TO 1027MB. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT WILL BE
DRY MONDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

THE CENTER OF THE 1027MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO SOUTH TEXAS. OVER-RUNNING IN THE
LOW LEVELS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM 46
TO 51 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM 51 TO 57 DEGREES
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT...RANGING FROM 26 TO 31 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM
31 TO 35 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 52 TO 56 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...1027MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST INTO SOUTH TEXAS WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS FASTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE GFS...AND PLACES THE
LOW ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING CAN BE RESOLVED.

WILL START OFF WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED COLD RAIN SPREADING EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES. THE
RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND COOLER DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. FURTHER INLAND WE EXPECT BETWEEN 0.5 AND
0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY...52 TO 58 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY...50 TO 55 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...AND FROM 56 TO 59 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 32 TO 37 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
01.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD WITH CIG BASES AT MID TO HIGH
LEVELS. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER...GENERALLY TO MVFR
CATEGORIES...THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A FEW TSRA POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS CAUSING HAZARDS FOR APPROACHES/DEPARTURES. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BRINGS A WIND SHIFT BETWEEN 02.06Z TO 02.10Z. /10

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND MAKES PASSAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BECOMES NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS TRENDING HIGHER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SEAS LOWER. A WAVE
OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ABOUT 200 MILES OFF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. SEAS TREND HIGHER ON THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION AND TRACK OF
THIS LOW ON THIS THURSDAY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  43  52  29  54 /  70  70  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   70  48  55  32  54 /  80  80  10  00  00
DESTIN      67  52  57  35  52 /  80  80  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   69  44  49  27  55 /  80  80  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  67  41  48  26  55 /  70  70  05  00  00
CAMDEN      67  42  47  26  54 /  80  80  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   70  49  53  29  55 /  80  80  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$




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