Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 281000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A HIGH LEVEL AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES OVER THE NATION`S HEARTLAND THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP TROF
AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
FIXED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF...A STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET OF 140 TO 160 KNOTS
STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. SURFACE FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST.
RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...
ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...ONE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES AND THE OTHER ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. RADAR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN AREA IS LIGHT...WITH
AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. DUE TO THESE TRENDS AND THE
PASSAGE OF A DEAMPLIFYING MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM SUGGEST THAT LARGER SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
WEAKENING. WEATHER MODEL TIME HEIGHTS ALSO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AREA
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPRESS MOISTURE WITH TIME...KEEPING
IT CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. CONSIDERING THIS...WIDESPREAD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ALSO...COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA A LITTLE
QUICKER...CROSSING THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND WILL BE CANCELLED ON THE 4 AM PACKAGE.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION THOUGH WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE.
OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED PATCHY FOG MIXED IN WITH RAINS AND WILL
CARRY THIS TO A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS
AND RAINS. DESPITE THIS...AHEAD OF FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...SUGGESTING WARMER TEMPERATURES MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 WHERE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST. A MODERATE
CHANCE OF POST-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LOWS MORE MILD IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S OVER THE BEACH AREAS. /10

[MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS A
MASSIVE BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF THE UNITED
STATES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF I-65...AND THEN FINALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE DESTIN AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES NORTHWEST
OF I-65...WITH MID 60S SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 46 TO 51 DEGREES
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AND RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...A VERY LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM A STRONG
1048MB PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL MIGRATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CENTER WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP
THE REGION RAIN-FREE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE VERY QUICKLY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
THE LATTER HALF OF WEEK...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL CLIMB FROM JUST BELOW
ONE-HALF INCH MIDWEEK TO BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL
THEN EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVOLVE INTO
AND OPEN WAVE BEFORE REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION BY NOON
SATURDAY. A PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM WILL SETUP
NEXT WEEKEND AS A 300MB JET MAX AHEAD OF THE OPEN TROUGH WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 140 TO 170 KNOTS FROM MISSISSIPPI ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA BY NOON SATURDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HOWEVER DEVELOP A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET OF
35 TO 50 KNOTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY PER THE
ECMWF MODEL. HOWEVER THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO
HELD ONTO SOME LOW POPS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 FOR SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CLIMB
BACK ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
FRIDAY AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND AREAS...WITH
LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
28.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
STARTING OFF THE FORECAST WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WITH LIFR/IFR
CIGS AND PASSING SHRA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VSBYS HAVE BEEN
RESTRICTED TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 STATUTE MILES MAINLY FROM MOBILE AND
POINTS WEST. VSBY COULD EASILY LOWER TO THESE RANGES ANYWHERE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF MODERATE SHRA. WILL MAINTAIN LIFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE
NEAR TERM WITH PASSAGE OF MODERATE SHRA BRINGING BRIEF OCCURRENCES
OF LOWER VSBY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING TURNS MORE
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. /10

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR THE PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS...WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY OVER MOBILE BAY AND
PORTIONS OF THE INTRACOASTAL. FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS A WIND SHIFT
TONIGHT. A LARGE AND STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  51  64  47  62 /  50  50  10  00  00
PENSACOLA   72  55  66  51  64 /  40  50  20  00  00
DESTIN      72  58  67  54  65 /  30  50  30  00  00
EVERGREEN   72  52  65  44  62 /  50  50  20  00  00
WAYNESBORO  65  48  60  40  60 /  90  60  10  00  00
CAMDEN      69  49  62  42  61 /  80  60  10  00  00
CRESTVIEW   74  55  67  47  65 /  30  50  30  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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