Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 282031
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... EE
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU... EJ


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