Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 271115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
615 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...General vfr/ifr cigs/visbys expected through the



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday night/...A weakly organized upper low
over the caribbean will meander northeastward along the Florida
Atlantic seaboard today through tonight, into an upper ridge
situated over the east coast. Subsidence on the west and northwest
side of this system working with the upper ridge will help to
suppress any precip as it brings drier air towards and ultimately
over the eastern quarter of the area. Over the rest of the area, a
surface ridge that has been stretching west over the northern Gulf
coast remains intact, keeping a strong moisture influx over the rest
of the area and the Lower Mississippi River Valley. With everything
considered, temps around seasonal continue, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s, and overnight lows in the mid 60s northeast to around 70
closer to the coast. /16

SHORT TERM /Saturday Through Sunday night/...An upper trof over the
central Plains moves off across the Great Lakes region and interior
eastern states through Sunday while a system off the Carolinas is
meanwhile expected to move into the southeast states. As this pattern
evolves, a deep layer southeasterly flow over the forecast area on
Saturday switches to a northerly flow on Sunday while generally weak
subsidence prevails over the forecast area.  Model soundings show a
capping inversion near 750 mb on Saturday which erodes on Sunday
while the profile also becomes drier save for a moist layer between
700-750 mb. A storm or two may develop each day, but coverage looks too
limited and have stayed with prevailing dry conditions through the
period. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday followed by
lower 90s inland with upper 80s near the coast on Sunday. Lows
Saturday night will range from the mid 60s inland to the upper 60s
near the coast, then lows Sunday night will be in the upper 60s
inland with lower 70s near the coast. /29

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...A system over the extreme
southeast states either moves off to the north or dissipates while an
upper trof advances across the western states and evolves into a
longwave trof over the central states. A light northwesterly flow
prevails on Monday and Tuesday, with a sea breeze developing each
afternoon, followed by a southerly flow becoming established on
Wednesday with continued sea breeze development each afternoon.
Monday will be primarily dry depending on the evolution of the system
over the southeast states, but have continued with slight chance
pops each day for now. Highs will be in the lower 90s each day while
lows will be near 70 inland with lower 70s closer to the coast. /29

MARINE...A surface low associated with an upper system over the
Caribbean will meander north towards the Carolinas through the
weekend, then, depending upon which model one follows, meanders
around over the Carolinas for several days or heads northeast to
over the open Atlantic. Into Sunday, this brings a shift in the
general flow over area coastal waters from southeast to a general
northerly. With a surface ridge building east over the north-central
Gulf coast Sunday into Monday, a more westerly flow sets up over
area coastal waters, with a diurnally onshore/offshore component
mixing in.


.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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