Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 251651 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY.
NO UPDATES PLANNED

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE GA/SC COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LARGE MID TO UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST WHILE A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALL RESULTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 10 METERS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO A 3-4 DEGREE INCREASE IN HIGHS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 80. LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST.
34/JFB

A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY. A DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN
PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
INLAND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND
THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE OH/TN REGION TUESDAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ALSO STRETCHES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST TX. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN A
PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THESE
FEATURES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1 AND
1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWFA. MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING IN BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. THE HIGHS MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
MONDAY/TUESDAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE NORTH. 2-3 FT SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING SETTLE TO 1-2 FT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL SLIGHTLY BUILD AGAIN BY TUESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  57  83  59  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   79  60  82  61  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      77  62  79  64  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   80  51  84  54  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  80  52  85  54  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      79  52  85  54  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   80  49  84  55  83 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










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