Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 260217
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
917 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Main update is to reconfigure evening POPs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The effective surface boundary has pushed to the southeast and
extends from the south side of OKC to the Wichita Mountains to
between Altus and Vernon. With this and the current radar trends,
have shifted the axis of highest POPs to the south. The RAP and
especially the HRRR redevelop storms after 06z, again with the
primary axis a little farther south than the previous forecast
included, so spread the likely POPs farther southeast for the 06z
to 12z time frame.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Storms, a few of which are likely to be severe, are
expected in the northwest half of Oklahoma, affecting TAF sites
KCSM, KGAG, KWWR, and KPNC at a minimum. Storms may also extend
south as far as KHBR, KOKC, and KOUN tonight. The area of storms
is then forecast to diminish in intensity, and drift north, then
remain across northwest Oklahoma most of the rest of the night.
Rain should end during the morning on Friday, and as the front
begins to drift back north, southerly breezes will be the rule
across Oklahoma and north Texas by noon tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A stalled front from west-central to northeast Oklahoma will be
the primary focus for convection this afternoon, this evening, and
overnight. We already have echoes on area radars, and these echoes
are all currently south of the front. This convection will likely
remain isolated and mostly non-severe. The more robust convection
is expected to form more like the storms that are now over the
Texas Panhandle, and should hold off until about 4 or 5 pm in our
forecast area.

The storms this evening will likely produce very heavy rain, and
forecast models have consistently shown the rainfall maximum
roughly along a line from Elk City to Enid, where heavy rain has
already fallen during the past few days. Flash flood guidance is
relatively low in this area, so we elected to issue a Flood Watch
this morning (for this evening and overnight). For this forecast
issuance, we will add Beckham and Washita Counties, because of a
strong signal of heavy rain in the short-range models, even
though their flood guidance is higher.

Storms should fill in from southwest/west-central Oklahoma to
north-central/northeast Oklahoma during the evening, then begin to
weaken after midnight. The storms should gradually die off as the
morning progresses on Friday.

After this event, it appears that the majority of rain will come
from isolated or scattered showers and storms occurring with weak
waves aloft, or just localized areas of lift + instability. There
is not much to go on to fine-tune the rain chances beyond tomorrow
morning, so the forecast is essentially what model guidance has
provided.

Otherwise, the forecast is relatively uneventful. Expect seasonal
temperatures, relatively high dew points, and generally light
winds (outside thunderstorms) through the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  90  70  91 /  50  20  10  20
Hobart OK         68  91  70  93 /  50  10  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  71  92  71  93 /  10  20  10  10
Gage OK           64  88  66  92 /  60  30  20  20
Ponca City OK     69  88  70  91 /  50  40  30  20
Durant OK         72  89  71  92 /  10  40  10  30

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for OKZ006>008-011-012-014>017-
     021-022.

TX...None.
&&

$$



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