Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOUN 011745 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCV IS EVIDENT ON KFDR... CENTERED OVER/NEAR
CHILDRESS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS OVER THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE AND WRN N TX/SWRN OK. WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS... A FEW LIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO SWEEP
ACROSS KNOX AND FOARD COUNTIES PERIODICALLY. OVERALL...
INSTANTANEOUS DUAL POL RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN MINOR...
.25-1.00 IN/HR. CALLS TO FOARD AND KNOX HAVE REVEALED ONLY LIGHT
RAIN AND NO FLOODING ISSUES AT THE MOMENT. IR SAT TRENDS SHOW
SLIGHTLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS... AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SOME
DOWNTURN IN OVERALL INTENSITY. OVERALL... FORCING REMAINS WEAK
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THEN ADDITIONAL HOT WEATHER NEXT WEEK IS ANOTHER CONCERN.

THIS MORNING...SOME HEAVY RAIN FROM A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF STORMS
MAY MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE LOCATIONS. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THESE LOCATIONS.

ALSO...ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION NORTH OF AN ALVA TO OKLAHOMA CITY
TO ATOKA LINE WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAREST THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING
WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW 3 MILES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST.
FORCING WILL BE WEAK...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. ANY STORM
WILL BE SLOW MOVING WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...EVEN LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND LIMIT
INSTABILITY. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN...RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE MID 90S NEAR DURANT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND RAIN
CHANCES SLIGHTLY DECREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. KEPT LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE
DEEPEST. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE SPARSE AND UNORGANIZED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A POSSIBLE LARGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WENT WITH A HOT AND MAINLY DRY
FORECAST...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF RUNS HINTED THAT THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
SEASON COULD ARRIVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH WIDESPREAD 100
DEGREE OR HIGHER TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE HEAT
ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS. THE 18Z DGEX WAS COOLER...
SUPPRESSING THE MID/UPPER RIDGE SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  70  93 /  20  20  10  10
HOBART OK         71  94  71  97 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  96  72  99 /  20  20  10  10
GAGE OK           68  92  68  92 /  30  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     71  94  71  94 /  20  20  10  10
DURANT OK         73  96  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.