Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 240254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
954 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017



Temperature trends were adjust downward slightly to reflect
observations for late this evening, but morning lows were not
adjusted. Light northwest winds are expected to keep morning
minimum temps in the 40s.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

Primary forecast focus is on temperatures and winds this week as two
frontal boundaries swing across the region.

Afternoon surface analysis reveals a the frontal boundary has
finally pushed south of the Red River into north Texas. Behind the
front, breezy north winds have persisted for several hours, with
gusts 25 to 30 mph being fairly common. We`ll remain under this
northwesterly flow regime through tonight, with a surface high
sliding southward along the front range and across the Llano
Estacado. Morning lows will dip into the 40s across the region.

Mid-range guidance remains in good agreement with the eastward trend
of a deepening 500mb trough through Tuesday into Wednesday, finally
stretching from the Great Lakes to the Gulf by Wednesday morning.
This will keep northwesterly flow over the plains, with highs
tomorrow in the 60s. Additionally, northwesterly winds will increase
as the surface pressure gradient responds to a weak surface trough
sliding south/southeast along the parent flow. Sustained winds near
20 MPH and gusts over 30 mph will be possible, again. With
persistent northwesterly flow, morning lows, Wednesday will dip into
the upper 30s.

With the trough continuing to build eastward, the plains will get a
touch of brief ridging as a surface high lingers over the Texas Gulf
Coast. At the same time, a surface trough moving off the Rockies
will assist in increased south/southwesterly flow Wednesday
afternoon/evening. This brief bout of warm air advection will allow
for a return to highs in the 70s both Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday, another strong frontal boundary will approach from the
northwest, accompanied by a decent short wave trough. Long-range
guidance remains in good agreement, synoptically, but some minor
timing issues remain with the arrival of the surface wind shift.
Thursday afternoon and overnight. Overall, sided primarily with MOS
guidance for wind speed/direction.

Through Friday, broad surface high pressure will persist over the
area, as the 500mb trough continues to dig eastward across the
Mississippi Valley. A few showers may crop up through the day across
far south central Oklahoma, but the big headline will be
overnight/Saturday morning lows across the region. Temperatures are
expected to dip well below freezing across much of northwestern and
northern Oklahoma, with below freezing temperatures extending toward
the I-40 corridor, including the OKC Metro. This is going to be our
first widespread freeze of the fall, with lows in the upper 20s in
northern and western Oklahoma to the low 30s down into central and
southwestern Oklahoma. A freeze warning may be necessary, but
details will be hashed out over the next few days. In the mean time,
be prepared to protect sensitive outdoor plants, bring them inside
or cover them Friday night.



Oklahoma City OK  45  62  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         43  64  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  47  66  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           40  62  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     43  61  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         49  66  41  71 /   0   0   0   0




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