Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 171738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...Aviation Discussion...


VFR conditions is likely at all sites. There are a couple of
exceptions that could cause at least brief impacts. Showers and
storms could move east from the higher terrain to the west and
impact northwest Oklahoma later tonight. A continued decrease as
they move eastward should limit impacts with perhaps just a few
showers impacting central Oklahoma during the early morning.
Saturated ground and very light easterly winds may result in
patchy light fog across southern Oklahoma and parts of western
north Texas. The probability was low enough not to include in at
at this time at any of the TAF sites near and south of I-40, but
the most likely sites to see a brief period of light fog around
sunrise would be LAW/SPS.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

A few additional showers and storms may develop in southern parts
of the fa this afternoon but most of the area will remain dry
during the day into this evening. Another storm complex could
develop this evening and move east into the fa later this evening
and overnight. Made some minor adjustments to the forecast but
overall it looked good.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 551 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

A light north wind can be expected at most TAF sites this morning
with mainly VFR conditions. The wind will become east and
southeast late this afternoon into tonight.  Scattered showers
and thunderstorms may move across parts of western and northern
Oklahoma this evening and overnight. MVFR conditions will likely
develop near thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

Currently, the leading edge of a line of thunderstorms, extends
from near Archer City, Texas to Marietta and Durant. Heavy
rainfall and gusty winds will remain likely over the next 1 to 2
hours with some flooding possible near the Red River.  Some
redevelopment to the north has occurred, but expect most of the
convection will be south of the Red River by sunrise. Will also
cancel the Flash Flood watch for parts of central Oklahoma. Most
of the precipitation has moved south of the watch area.

Elsewhere, mainly light winds with low temperature/dewpoint
spreads may result in some light fog by early morning.

The outflow boundary associated with convection this morning,
should help with additional showers and storms this afternoon.
Expect that most of this activity will be over north Texas.

By late evening, higher theta-e air will be transported to the
north as the low level flow increases. At this time, it appears
northwest/west central Oklahoma will have the best chance of
initial storm develop. Overnight, the flow will generally be west
and southwest, so storms may develop northward into Kansas,
similar to the ECMWF. However, the flow is expected to become
northwest by morning as another wave moves across the northern

Additional storms may form again Friday night into early Saturday.
However, with a veered and rather weak 85h flow overnight, better
rain and storm chances may be to our east.

Over the weekend into early next week, a ridge will have more
influence on our weather. Afternoon heating may result in
isolated afternoon and early evening storms, but the chance of
widespread areas of precipitation should be rather low.

By Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, another front is expected to
approach northern Oklahoma. This combined with a wave moving
across the central Plains, may bring another round of showers and
storms to at least the northern half of Oklahoma.


Oklahoma City OK  90  71  93  72 /   0  30  30  40
Hobart OK         93  72  95  72 /   0  30  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  94  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  20
Gage OK           91  68  94  68 /  10  50  40  30
Ponca City OK     88  69  91  69 /   0  30  30  40
Durant OK         89  74  94  73 /  40  20  30  30




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