Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 291456

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1056 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

A strong upper level area of low pressure will remain just west of
the mountains today into Friday. This system will combine with a
residual stationary front across the region to produce periods of
showers and thunderstorms today into Friday night. The low will
move northeast, away from the region, resulting in drier weather
this weekend.


As of 1050 AM EDT Thursday...

Appears another active day in store this afternoon as the upper
low to the northwest digs toward the Tennessee Valley and another
impulse aloft rotates through from the southwest. This looks to
again play tag with the stalled surface low and occluded boundary
stuck along the Blue Ridge. Bands of added convection likely to
take shape across the eastern half as this occurs per latest Cam
solutions with coverage rotating north/northwest into northern
sections through the evening.

Low clouds were still eroding mainly west of a Lynchburg to
Martinsville line. Think best chances of deeper convection will
occur just south of the boundary/triple point and perhaps even out
west where will have a band under the upper low arriving late.

Although lapses likely to be weaker today unless more heating
occurs, added cooling aloft and deeper low level southeast flow
turning southwest aloft while strengthening supports added severe
hail/wind potential. Freezing level from the morning sounding
at Blacksburg was still just below 9400 feet which also indicates
an environment that will support hail.

Thus after a lull this morning expect enough coverage to keep
overall likely/cat pops in all except the far sw where a weak dry
slot may hold. Highest QPF looks to also reside across the
easternmost counties with this axis swinging back toward the
Virginia Highlands later today.

Highs mostly 70s although could get to around 80 southeast if
more sunshine develops, while some spots across the north and east
may get stuck in the 60s if clouds persist.

Upper low should begin to pivot slowly north/northeast overnight
allowing the eastern conveyor belt of deep moisture/convergence to
lift a bit farther to the northeast late ahead of the residual
surface front. This may also push somewhat drier air aloft into
western sections late as the weak surface low along the Blue Ridge
retrogrades back westward, and a secondary cold front edges east
across the far west. Appears loss of instability should again help
reduce thunder chances after this evening but lingering heavy rain
threat likely to continue at least northeast third through late
tonight. Therefore keeping a gradient of likely or higher pops
mainly along/east of the Blue Ridge overnight and chances elsewhere
given expected slower exodus of deeper moisture. Low temps mainly
50s mountains to mid 60s out east.


As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

A very large closed low will wobble over the southern Ohio Valley
through Saturday night. Through each period, precipitation coverage
will become smaller and smaller as dry air gets wrapped into this
low. Dry air will start moving over the the southern Appalachains
Friday morning, then works north through the day. Rain showers will
begin to taper off from south to north behind a short wave axis,
finally exiting the Alleghany Highlands and the Hill City of
Lynchburg late Friday evening. Even though mid and high levels will
remain relatively dry Saturday, low level moisture and afternoon
heating may produce a few shallow dark base clouds and a few
showers. Overall coverage of showers and measurable rain will be
less than 10 percent Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will remain seasonal Friday into the weekend with highs
ranging in the 70s, some 60s along ridge tops and lows into the 50s.


As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...

Closed upper low will lift northeast and reach the St. Lawrence
river valley by Sunday night. Then, the low center will open up
and weaken as it moves across New England Monday and moves into
the Atlantic ocean on Tuesday.

The exact evolution of the large scale patterns will affect the
eventual track of what is forecasted by NHC to be Hurricane Matthew.
The storm may threaten the southeast coast next week. This is being
monitored by the NHC and WPC.

For much of the extended ISC grids leaned towards WPC which was a
blend of the 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENS MEAN. Temperatures will
start cooler for Saturday with continued improvement as
precip/cloudcover comes to an end, then temperatures begin to
moderate Sunday into Wednesday.


As of 705 AM EDT Thursday...

Much of the region has basically dry slotted early this morning
with a void in showers between bands just east of the region and
weaker showers to the west. However in the wake of the rainfall
seeing widespread sub-VFR with IFR in spots that will likely
persist into mid morning and perhaps early afternoon east of the
Blue Ridge per weak easterly flow. Also vsbys may continue to
lower in developing dense fog with MVFR to IFR restrictions
possible this morning including some spotty light rain or drizzle.

Should see some slow improvement in cigs/vsbys by afternoon with a
gradual return to VFR mainly across the west where moisture is a
bit more shallow. Once any heating develops should see more
showers and possible storms redevelop in bands this afternoon with
the best chances along the KHSP-KLYH-KDAN corridor, and then
around KBLF/KLWB later in the day. Therefore will focus the more
widespread prevailing sub-VFR in these areas with more vicinity
mention elsewhere pending the degree of heating.

Showers and storms again look to linger into this evening with the
best concentration shifting into northern sections overnight
before fading. This should again allow for areas of MVFR in
shra/tsra this evening, then widespread sub-VFR in fog/stratus

Extended aviation discussion...

A deep upper low will remain over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
Friday into Friday night. This will keep variable clouds, MVFR
cigs, and periods of -SHRA across the region through much of the
period. Should finally see VFR return during Saturday and continue
into Monday as the upper low lifts north and weak high pressure
builds in.


As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms during Wednesday/Wednesday evening
brought locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches in spots, espcly
along the Virginia/North Carolina border. Other areas of isolated
heavy rainfall occurred along/east of the Blue Ridge in Virginia.
Added bands of showers and storms could redevelop across eastern
sections, as well as over the western mountains as an upper level
low drifts to the southeast today. Locally heavy downpours could
result in another 1-2 inches of rain across eastern locations with
a half to one inch over the west. The heaviest rainfall may end up
across the southern Shenandoah valley region this evening as bands
tend to merge. Thus the flash flash watch continues for a few far
eastern counties northwest to Rockbridge county where the best
potential exists for heavier rainfall capable of producing
flooding or flash flooding. Rises along mainstem rivers could
reach half bankfull or more in spots, mainly over eastern
sections, where heavier QPF may continue and runoff will be best.


VA...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for VAZ024-035-


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