Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRNK 060135
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
935 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING TO ALONG THE NC/VA COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING....THEN TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST OF PA/NY BY SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT THURSDAY...

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE AXIS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENTUALLY BECOMING ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS AREA OF BEST
FORCING IS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 8AM ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND THIS WILL LESSEN THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDER SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY IN THE FORECAST BUT A
STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY SO EVEN WITH A
HEFTY DOSE OF RAINFALL TODAY WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MATERIALIZE. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE
AND SOME SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS...MAINLY FROM MT. ROGERS TO BEECH MOUNTAIN. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 500 MB HEIGHTS
ARE BUILDING AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS HEADS EASTWARD. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 50
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL VARY
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS THE COLD
FRONT TRAVELS THROUGH OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
OROGRAPHICAL EFFECTS MAY OVERCOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS OF GFS AND ECMWF ARE LOOKING A
LITTLE WETTER WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK
FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD.
ON WEDNESDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A WAVY WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO
OUR REGION. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY AS SEEN IN THE LIS IS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
MIDWEEK. THEN...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY...CREATING ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE BETWEEN LOW-END VFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL WAVES AND BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LOWER RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS (LWB-BLF) THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW JOGS TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT...THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE (BCB-ROA)...THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE TO THE PIEDMONT (LYH-DAN)
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING...CELLING
HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES AND IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE LOW
ACTUALLY TRACKS TO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THIS
LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JR/RCS
CLIMATE...CF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.