Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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467
FXUS61 KRNK 140507
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1207 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES
EAST SUNDAY AND SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY MONDAY...ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EST SATURDAY...

PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SOUNDING FOR RNK THIS EVENING. OBSERVED PWAT WAS
0.06 AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WAS MINUS 10 DEGREES C WHICH WAS AT
THE SURFACE. THIS DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SUNDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR POTENTIAL RECORDS THAT MAY BE
TESTED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE 1036 MB SURFACE
HIGH WAS OVER EASTERN OHIO WITH SINGLE AND SUB ZERO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE BORDER INTO EASTERN CANADA...TEMPERATURES
WERE 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO...DANG COLD.

ASIDE FROM THE COLD...THE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TAME DOWN. WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT IF
WINDS GO CALM...WE MAY PULL THE PLUG ON THE HEADLINE EARLY TO
CONCENTRATE ON THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM.

THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY DAWN SUNDAY. IN SPITE OF SOME INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD SUNRISE...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO RECORDS OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO THE LOWER TEENS IN
THE PIEDMONT. MOST OF AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAVING WIND
CHILL BELOW ZERO TO -15F TONIGHT...AS COLD AS -20F IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER WEST VIRGINIA. REFER TO CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORDS.

BITTER COLD ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE RETREATING EAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY...WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY...REACHING THE MIDWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED POPS
SUNDAY TOWARDS THE QUICKER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS OVER GFS. SNOW WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN NORTHWEST
GREENBRIER COUNTY TO AROUND FREEZING MARK IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 259 PM EST SATURDAY...

MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH A SIMILAR SCENARIO AS
DEPICTED BY THE EARLIER EC IN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST GFS/NAM WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE STRONGER ADDED SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ROUNDS
THE DEVELOPING MEAN TROF TO THE WEST MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SPELLS
AN AXIS OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE JETTING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
INITIAL WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST BY EVENING BEFORE SPREADING EAST. HOWEVER QUESTIONS INITIALLY WITH
LOW PWAT MOISTURE OVER TOP THE VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR AND HOW LONG IT
MIGHT TAKE TO REACH THE SURFACE. NAM REMAINS THE FASTEST AND STRONGEST
WITH A CSI TYPE BAND SETUP ALONG/NORTH OF ROUTE 460 OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE GFS QUITE DRY AND THE EC IN BETWEEN. SINCE DEGREE OF LIFT RATHER
IMPRESSIVE THINK PRECIP WILL BREAK THROUGH THE DRY AIR FASTER MOUNTAINS
WITH EFFICIENT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ONCE THINGS GET GOING. THIS SUPPORTED
BY A GOOD SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY MONDAY
OFF THE 12Z EURO WITH AN INCH OR TWO OUT EAST. THUS STEADILY INCREASING
POPS OVERNIGHT REACHING CATEGORICAL AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST SECTIONS. TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BUT LIKELY RISING SOME ESPCLY EAST LATE.

UNCERTAINTY IN PTYPE/QPF REMAIN BIG ISSUES MOVING FORWARD MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST INITIAL LOBE OF LIFT SLIDES NORTH AND THE
UPPER SYSTEM SHARPENS TO THE SW WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE 85H JET TO RAMP UP TO AROUND 50 KTS WITH VERY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. THIS CREATES A
STRONG WARM NOSE SITUATION DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUIDANCE BASICALLY TAKING THE 0C LINE NORTH/WEST OF MOST
OF THE CWA BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH APPEARS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO FAST
IN WARMING THINGS GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...LATEST ENSEMBLES
QUITE SIMILAR WITH THE WARM NOSE. AHEAD OF THIS APPEARS STEADY SNOW MAY
TAPER SOME AS DEPTH OF MOISTURE ALOFT BRIEFLY DECREASES WITH THE FIRST
BAND OF LIFT AND BEST UVV REDEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ONCE THE
HEAVIER PRECIP PUSHES BACK IN LATER MONDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SLEET
VARIETY WEST AND FREEZING RAIN EAST...BUT IFFY GIVEN THE POSSIBLE
DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR REMAINING GIVEN SNOW COVER AND INSITU
NATURE OF A WEAK WEDGE OFF GUIDANCE. SURFACE LOW AND AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ALMOST
IN FRONTAL FASHION MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGHER QPF APPEARS LIKELY.
PROFILES SUGGEST A LOT OF THIS TO BE RAIN WITH MORE FREEZING RAIN NE
SECTIONS AND POCKETS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INCLUDING DEEPER VALLEYS.
THIS COULD CREATE QUITE A ICING ISSUE OVERNIGHT IF SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN
TOO COLD. HOWEVER DOES APPEAR A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE POSSIBLE BLUE RIDGE
AND POINTS NORTH BEFORE WARMER AIR FINALLY WINS OUT TUESDAY MORNING
WHEN THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP EXITS. TEMPS TO REMAIN TRICKY WITH
VALUES TRYING TO RISE OUT OF THE 20S MONDAY BUT LIKELY TOUGH OVER THE
WEST GIVEN SNOW PACK. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RISE A BIT MORE AS
DEPTH OF THE WARM AIR INCREASES BUT WHAT SIDE OF FREEZING WILL THEY BE
ON WHEN THE HEAVIER PRECIP CROSSES STILL IFFY.

THUS GIVEN ALL OF THIS...POSTING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
AREA STARTING BY SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
THIS INCLUDES SNOWFALL OF 4-8+ INCHES MOUNTAINS...3-6 ROA-LYH AND 2-5
SOUTHERN SECTIONS PENDING DEGREE OF SLEET. ALSO A TENTH OR TWO OF ICE
MOUNTAINS TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS NE.

SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO
THE FASTER NAM WITH LEFTOVER POPS MAINLY WESTERN SLOPES AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES OUT EAST. DO EXPECT SOME TEMP RECOVERY UNDER WARMING ALOFT SO
PUSHED HIGHS TOWARD 40 WEST AND 45-50 EAST.

ANOTHER CLIPPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING IN ON THE HEELS
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWER POPS MAINLY WEST UNDER THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SATURDAY...

NEXT CLIPPER WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHOT OF
COLD ADVECTION AND DECENT NW FLOW UPSLOPE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
COLD AIR IS MORE OF THE MODIFIED CANADIAN FLAVOR SO NOT LOOKING AT ANY
BITTER COLD DESPITE GUSTY WINDS. MOST POPS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
THIRD WITH DOWNSLOPE DRYING OUT EAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS STILL CHILLY BUT MOSTLY 30S TO LOW 40S WEST AND PERHAPS NEAR 50
PIEDMONT

CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND TO THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A COLD BUT DRY START WITH LOWS 20S TO A FEW TEENS VALLEYS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN LATER THURSDAY AND LINGERS INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVE FOR DAY 7. WITH
GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT ON THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPS RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER SUNSHINE BEFORE MUCH WARMER AIR SURGES IN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE 40S AND 50S UNDER INCREASING RETURN SW FLOW FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
50S TO NEAR 60 PIEDMONT SATURDAY DESPITE MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1201 AM EST SUNDAY...

VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS
BECOMING MID DECK BY 12Z THEN LOW END VFR BY 18-22Z.

WARM FRONT AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY 22Z...AND
SHIFT EAST BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR VSBYS/CIGS TO
DROP TO MVFR AND LOWER ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 06Z.

WINDS LIGHT OR FROM THE NW SWING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME GUSTS OVER BLF TO 20KTS AFTER 00Z MON.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...STARTING AS SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MONDAY. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK WINTER
STORM...THERE IS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH VFR RETURNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON HAS SETTLED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. SEVERAL RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR SUNDAY 2/14.
LOOKS LIKE BLF TIED A RECORD LOW FOR 2/13.

SUNDAY 02/14/2016
SITE   MINT YEAR  LOMAX YEAR
KBLF     5 1971     16 1960
KDAN    15 1986     32 1986
KLYH     4 1899     24 1905
KROA    10 1943     26 1986
KRNK    -2 1969     24 1986

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ007-009>020.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ001-002-018.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-
     002-018.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...PM/WP
CLIMATE...CF



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