Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 241556
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1156 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL HEAD EASTWARD...AND SHOULD CROSS
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1155 AM EDT THURSDAY...

DEBRIS CLOUD COVER STILL HANGING TOUGH FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD IN
THESE AREAS...BUT THE CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO THIN ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT JUMP UPWARD ONCE
THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH IN THESE AREAS. ALSO...DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWERED A LITTLE TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE READINGS THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES TOO
HIGH. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 1025 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY
WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
FIRST...THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE THE VALLEYS APPROACH
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CWA UNTIL FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
DEBRIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO
OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW...SKY GRIDS WILL ADVERTISE
30-70 PERCENT CLOUD COVER TODAY...INCREASING TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE SHORT WAVE WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF /0.25-0.50/ INCH BY STORMS END. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY DRY. BOTH THE ECM/NAM BRING A BACK DOOR FRONT TOWARDS
THE HILLS CITY OF LYNCHBURG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER
AND HOLDS THIS FRONT BACK UNTIL SUNDAY. EITHER WAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MAY BRING JUST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE GOING INTO SUNDAY.

THE RAIN FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINING MILD IN THE 40S WEST TO
NEAR 50F IN THE EAST. WITH A WARM START TO SATURDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE WINDS
FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTED EAST COMPONENT OF THE WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A CLOSED LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH
BROAD FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL LIFT OVER THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS WERE
OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
THAN THE GFS.

WPC WAS LEANING TOWARD A TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM EDT THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...
THROUGH 12Z/8AM FRIDAY.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD
TODAY...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SCT-BKN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...COURTESY OF A MID CONUS
STORM SYSTEM.

MID CONUS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AROUND MID-DAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SHOWERS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ASIDE FOR THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NE AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ONE MORE DAY OF LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE MORNING.
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL DIP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS STILL LESS THAN 10 MPH. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING WETTING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PM/PW
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...PM/PW



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