Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 051813
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
113 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE MOVING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS COLDER AIR SLIDES EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION. WINTRY WEATHER ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE HEADS TO THE MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 102 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHER SNOW BANDING AND SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...SOUTH TO THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY EAST TO THE PIEDMONT NORTH OF HWY 460. GOOD
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 800-750MB LAYER WITH EPV ATOP OVER
THE ALLEGHANYS SHOWING BANDING POTENTIAL EXISTS WHICH IS EVIDENT
ON RADAR.

STILL NOT PLANNING ON HEADLINE CHANGES...THOUGH THINK APPOMATTOX
COUNTY COULD EXCEED 4 INCHES BY EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE LIMITED ON AMOUNTS. THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF START CLEARING THINGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 3-4 PM...THEN
EXITS THE PIEDMONT BY 03Z. HOWEVER...THEY SHOW POTENTIAL NARROW
BAND OVER THE ROANOKE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD DUMP
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES...IF THIS SETS UP.


&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ONE LAST SHOT OF FRIGID AIR FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS WE START FRIDAY MORNING OFF WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM NEAR ZERO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOW 20S
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL KEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 40
SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT...CAUSING THE COLDER AIR TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH.
WILL START SATURDAY OFF WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HELPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S WEST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S EAST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
IN THE NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TOWARD SUNRISE
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE EACH
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS...THERE HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENCIES AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT...AND WHEN...AND WHAT TRACK A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MAY GET PICKED UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE
OF THIS OCCURRENCE. THE ECMWF WAS OPTIMISTIC ON AN ARRIVAL A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM ON MONDAY. OUR FORECAST TODAY WILL REFLECT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE
THINKING THAT THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST...AND WE WILL CONTINUE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
IT WILL ALSO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE 850 MB
FLOW WILL BE MORE W-NW. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATES IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST TRENDS BRING THE GFS INTO PLAY
NOW FOR BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THE
CANADIAN AND ECWMF STILL A LITTLE EARLIER. IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...WE WILL ALSO ADD WEDNESDAY INTO
THE MIX TO REFLECT THE MODEL VARIATIONS AND A SMALL POTENTIAL EACH
DAY FOR A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO PROGRESS OVER OR
NEAR THE REGION. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY. EXPECT A RANGE OF
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST THURSDAY...

POOR FLYING WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SLEET AND SNOW. MODELS ALL CLEAR THINGS OUT THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECT LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE PRECIP
ENDS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT DAN THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...MODELS ARE HINTING AT FOG POTENTIAL IN THE WEST WITH
CLEARING SKIES...AND DID ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR FOG AT BCB/LWB.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON FOG.


EXTENDED FORECAST...

FRIDAY TO SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1030 AM EST THURSDAY...

FLOODING STILL ONGOING OVER THE BLUESTONE AND CLINCH RIVERS.
PRECIP CHANGING TO SLEET/SNOW WILL CUT BACK ON RUNOFF WHILE TEMPS
FALL.

WILL BE WATCHING THE UPPER JAMES AND THE GREENBRIER RIVERS AS
WELL FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>018-022-034.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ019-
     020-023-024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ032-033-043>046-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ035-
     047.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-
     002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003>006-019-020.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/WP
HYDROLOGY...PM



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