Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 072049
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RESIDES OVER THE STATE TODAY AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...NOSING
DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS.  FRONT HAS STALLED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROF HAS SET UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE PANHANDLES.  HIGHS TODAY
HAVE HELD GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH WEAK LIFT AND LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN
LIGHT IN NATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI.
IN A VERY NON-JULY LIKE PATTERN...THIS PARKS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AND EVEN FORMS A
WEAK TROWAL FEATURE AT 850MB OVER THE EAST. TRACK AND SPEED SUGGEST
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE EVENING AND BRING HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN
THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE AND TRANSLATING NORTH INTO EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON.  EC AND GFS KEEP PRECIP FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF A LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA
LINE. NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGRESSIVE AND FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
BOTH POSSIBILITIES.  IN ANY CASE DO EXPECT ANOTHER WELL BELOW NORMAL
PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO 60S...FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF CENTRAL KS OVER CENTRAL MO.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST, WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES.  KEPT WITH THE TREND OF THE
GEM/GFS/ECMWF AND HAVE LOW TO NO POPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS NE KANSAS IS BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES.
THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT,
WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.  THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  SHEAR AND CAPE THURSDAY EVENING COULD SUPPORT STRONGER
STORMS, ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY MARGINAL. THE ECMWF
HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF I-
70, SO HAVE KEPT CHANCES IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDY SKIES
THURSDAY WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND
REGULATE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.  AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO TEMPERATURES
RISE BACK TO CLIMATOLOGY.

SEVERAL ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES COULD SET UP AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WORK AROUND MID TO UPPER RIDGING SET IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA, BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME SPOTTY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AS SUFFICIENT RETURN FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE AND THETA-E VALUES WILL BE QUITE HIGH. FORCING DOES
APPEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE AT THIS POINT, SO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST FLOW STARTS TO
SET UP MONDAY LATE INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR A DECENT SHORTWAVE
WORKING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY, BUT BEST
FORCING SHOULD STILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. WILL
NEED TO REFINE ANY POSITIONING AND TIMING HEADING INTO THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE GENERALLY ON THE RISE AND IF TRENDS
CONTINUE THEN POSSIBLE LOW 100S MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AND GENERALLY MID TO
UPPER 90S OUTSIDE OF THAT.  LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE POTENTIAL MVFR POSSIBLE IFR CIGS
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. SCT CU DEVELOPING AROUND 2KFT SHOULD
LIFT SOME DURING HEATING...BUT LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO ADVECT UP
FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL TOMORROW
MORNING.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...DRAKE/HELLER
AVIATION...67


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