Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 312316
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

Pattern of the last week or so finally starts to take a shift
towards drier days later today as the plume of moisture that has
been streaming over the state starts to get shifted to the south.
High pressure from the northeast and its drier air in the lower
levels starting to undercut what remains of the showers over the
area today, with the northeastern counties drying out and the west
and south expected to dry out in short order. Could see moderate
showers west and east for another hour or two, but no hazardous
weather is anticipated.  For tonight, clearing skies and wet ground
could spell fog in low spots, but soundings are coming in pretty dry
off the deck and might keep it relegated to along bodies of water
and shallow.  Have kept out of the forecasts for now but will note
to incoming forecasters.  Clear skies and abundant sunshine gets
high temperatures back toward 80 for Thursday afternoon. Overnight
lows tonight fall into the middle 50s west to upper 50s east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

A cool and dry airmass settles in to the Midwest Friday and Saturday
as weak easterly winds sustain below 10 mph underneath the inverted
ridge axis. Skies are mostly sunny yet below normal temps for this
time of year in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows are
mainly in the low 60s. By Saturday evening, upper ridge shifts
eastward some however held in place by the remnants of Tropical
Storm Hermine centered over the east coast by this time.
Meanwhile, upper trough begins to dig southeast across the western
conus, developing sct storms near a sfc front over the western high
plains. This activity may reach north central areas of KS late
Saturday evening into Sunday, however am still expecting the dry air
to hold any precip from reaching the majority of the CWA. Storm
chances increase by Sunday as the front approaches from the north
and west. Weak embedded waves are mainly focused between guidance
towards Nebraska, however may impact portions of northern KS,
especially on Tuesday and Wednesday when the front remains nearly
stationary over this area. Severe weather would not be anticipated,
however periods of heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns once
again. Daytime heating ahead of the front from Labor day onward
average highs in the upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.  There is a
chance for some fog where grounds are still wet from showers, but
for now the best chances look to be south and west of the terminals.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Heller


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