Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 280931
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
531 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...ANCHORING OFF THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 06Z...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-66 BISECTING THE CWA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAD ALREADY DISSIPATED AND ALL
THAT/S LEFT WAS MID CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WERE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE.
THIS MORNING MAY START WITH SOME CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA BUT AS DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. POPULATED MAXT USING AN
EQUAL BLEND OF BCADJMAV AND BCSREFS YIELDING NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
TONIGHT...LEVELLING OFF FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BEFORE LIKELY
STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING. RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT MAY BE SOME MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN
ALOFT OVERNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FCST MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WARM FRONT
CROSSES. COVERAGE WILL BE ISO-SCT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS ANCHORED TO THE EAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
SET UP AS WELL LEADING TO A MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
SETUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND SHIFT TO NW HAD ALREADY OCCURRED ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT CHO AS OF
06Z DUE TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE. CHO FOLLOWS SUIT BY 08-09Z. NW WINDS
MAY GUST UP TO 15 KT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD
TO LESS WIND OVERNIGHT...THEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST WINDS
BECOME SE ON FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS STARTING
NEXT WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THIS MAY CAUSE VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED SCA FOR MUCH OF THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER. N/NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT HAVE GUSTED IN THE 18-20 KT
RANGE IN A FEW SPOTS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MID MORNING.

PREV...

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING. 10 TO 15 KT IS LIKELY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO
WINDS REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS BUT CHANCE IS NOT ZERO EITHER.
GRADIENT IS WEAKER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTH.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY SUNDAY IN BREEZY PREFRONTAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...BPP/HAS
MARINE...BPP/HAS






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