Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KLWX 241952
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS GEORGIA AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

NO PROBS FORESEEN WX-WISE TNGT. WARM FNT OVR OH WL BE MOVG INTO
THE AREA OVRNGT...BUT SOME CLD IS THE ONLY SENSIBLE WX THAT WL
OCCUR W/ THIS - PERHAPS LGT SN IN THE HIGHLANDS BUT THAT IS LOW
CHC. TEMPS WL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NGT...BUT PERHAPS
THAT IS NOT SAYING MUCH GIVEN TEMPS AS LOW AS -17 WERE SEEN IN THE
HIGHLANDS AND -4 AT IAD.

LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGHLANDS...U TEENS MUCH OF THE
AREA...L20S IN THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

WED HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. GIVEN LATE FEB SUN TEMPS SHOULD RISE
TO 35-40 E OF THE BLU RDG...M20S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

24.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCHED NORTHWARD WRT TRACK OF SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY
12Z THURSDAY. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AREA OF
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY WHERE MODELS MAY BE
UNDERDOING QPF GENERATION. FOR THIS ISSUANCE HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY FROM HIGHLAND TO ST MARYS COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THESE MAY
ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE RAISED HIGHER AND EXTEND FARTHER NORTH. BRUNT
OF STORM STILL STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA THOUGH...SO ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE A FEW INCHES AT THE MAX. HOWEVER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...ROADWAY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFFSHORE THURSDAY BUT STRONG CAA WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND SOME
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS. THE EVENING HOURS MAY BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS THE 850MB TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL
PVA CROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH
SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE PA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHLANDS.

DEEP MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT ABATE SLIGHLTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF
OVERRUNNING/PERHAPS MIXED P-TYPE EVENTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODERATING AIRMASS ALOFT MOVES OVER RESIDUAL COLD
AIR AT THE SURFACE. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE FOR A TREND IN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT/WED.

MVFR/IFR CONDITION POSSIBLE LATE WED EVENING-EARLY THU MORNING WITH
LIGHT SNOW. HIGHER PROB OF OCCURRENCE AT KCHO WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. REDUCED CIGS MAY LINGER INTO THU
NIGHT AND CANNOT RULE OUT FLURRIES OR A SNOW SHOWER AT TIMES.

MAINLY VFR FRI-SAT...THOUGH SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN ISO
-SHSN WRN TERMINAL FRI PM. SLY FLOW AROUND 10 KTS BECOMES WLY 10-20
KTS FRI NIGHT-SAT BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA TNGT/WED.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW. ALSO NORTHERLY WINDS MAY
REACH SCA LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE MORE MARGINAL THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MAY ULTIMATELY
BE GUSTY WITH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN.

SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE FRI AFT IN SLY CHANNELING...MORE LIKELY
FRI NIGHT-SAT IN WLY PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/DFH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.