Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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064 FXUS64 KMAF 140811 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 311 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A warm and mostly quiet day is expected today across West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Highs reach into the low to mid 90s areawide with low 100s in the Big Bend. A dryline sharpens along a north- south line from Colorado City down to Big Lake and further south to Dryden. A few short range ensemble members show one or two isolated showers or storms develop late this afternoon, but either quickly dissipate or move east out of the area. The same dryline retreats much further to the west late Tuesday night and into Wednesday and sets up along the high terrain. Modest shear along with some instability(~1500J/kg) will allow for a few storms to fire along the dryline. A couple storms may become severe with hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Activity that develops will gradually move to the east during the afternoon and into the evening. Highs on Wednesday once again reach above normal into the low to mid 90s for most. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 An upper trough over New Mexico will continue to bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin on Thursday. This will be the last chance rainfall for the remainder of the forecast as the upper pattern transitions to zonal or ridging. Will have to keep a close eye on the Sunday- Tuesday time frame where guidance is showing well above normal temperatures developing. NBM highs are in the upper 90s with some locations seeing their first 100 degree temps, Midland/Odessa included. The hot temperatures will mainly depend on the strength and location of the upper jet currently progged to be over northern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Westerly downsloping winds would bring the hot temps to our CWA, a slightly more northerly shift of the jet would allow cooler and more moist Gulf air to remain in the Basin, keeping temps a little lower. Hennig && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR continues for the next 24 hours. Light winds through the morning shift to the south and southeast. Occasional gusts possible during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 94 67 91 64 / 0 0 20 40 Carlsbad 94 60 95 61 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 96 69 95 69 / 0 0 20 30 Fort Stockton 96 68 96 65 / 10 0 30 20 Guadalupe Pass 85 62 84 59 / 0 0 10 0 Hobbs 91 60 92 57 / 0 0 10 20 Marfa 89 54 88 54 / 0 0 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 93 68 91 64 / 0 0 20 30 Odessa 93 68 92 66 / 0 0 20 30 Wink 96 67 96 64 / 0 0 20 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...93