000
FXUS64 KMAF 221114
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
614 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery shows the cold front moving through
the Texas Panhandle, and surface observing stations have recorded a
northerly wind shift in Amarillo and sites along I-40. This cold
front will continue surging southward through the morning hours
before southwesterly winds ramp up with the passage of a upper level
shortwave, and the front will stall as warmer air wins out. Because
of this, there will be a very sharp gradient of temperatures across
the region this afternoon, with those in the northern Permian Basin
possibly in the 80s with areas further south sitting in the 90s and
100s, similar to previous days. Clearing skies and the strong warm
surface winds will push those along the Rio Grande above 110, and
even the mountains south of I-10 may get above 95 degrees, so a Heat
Advisory is in effect for this afternoon for these areas. Outside of
the heat, the combination of the stalled front and passage of the
shortwave should be sufficient for some storm development this
afternoon, primarily in the far eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos. Moisture will be lacking today but decent instability
and lapse rates indicate that anything that develops this afternoon
may be accompanied by large hail and/or damaging winds. Regardless,
storms will quickly move out of the area by sunset.

Thursday will be more of the same with weak upper level ridging
building back in and dry downslope flow pushing highs back to the
upper 90s and low 100s. Humidity looks to fall to as low as 3
percent nearly area-wide on Thursday, combining with the stronger
winds and very dry conditions to create critical fire weather
conditions...more information can be found in the Fire Weather
Discussion below.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Hot, dry conditions will continue into the holiday weekend before we
see a break in the heat later next week. Deep westerly flow and
sunny skies each afternoon will allow temperatures to remain well
above normal through Sunday. Excessive heat will continue to be a
concern across the Big Bend where daily temperatures reach 110-115
along the Rio Grande. Heat Advisories will likely continue for
the foreseeable future. Very dry air and large scale subsidence
overhead will not allow for any precipitation through Memorial
Day.

As we get into early next week, a strong shortwave will cross the
Plains helping to shove a cold front through our region Monday. This
will drop temperatures back to near normal with highs falling to the
80s north with 90s/100s south. Increasing low level moisture through
the week could allow for better rain chances, but we shall see!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR with clearing clouds. Winds shifting northerly with a cold
front moving through this morning, gusty at times. Winds return
back easterly/southerly this evening/overnight and back westerly
by tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Fire weather concerns will be on the increase into the weekend
given a combination of escalating factors. Today begins a trend of
very dry air that will shift northward across the area from
Mexico. Areas along and west of the Pecos River will experience RH
values below 5 percent this afternoon with this dry air spreading
east Thursday into the weekend. Winds will remain generally under
15 mph for most locations except across the higher terrain which
will be influenced by deeper mixing pushing winds to gust to near
40 mph at times. These stronger winds are likely to create
critical fire weather conditions both Thursday and Saturday in the
stronger, wind-favored areas. Fuels continue to degrade across the
west and ERC values will reach extreme levels (>97th percentile)
by Thursday afternoon. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch in the
higher terrain where the strongest fire weather conditions and
fuels overlap. A chance for storms exists this afternoon across
the eastern Permian Basin, however, recent rains and green- up
will help prevent major concerns for fire starts. Fortunately,
lightning strikes will generally remain out of range of areas west
of the Pecos that have been mostly dry for the past few months,
keeping concern for lightning starts low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               86  66  99  62 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 90  60  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  103  73 105  69 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            99  64 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           85  60  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    86  58  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    92  53  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     90  65  97  63 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   91  65  97  65 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     94  62  99  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills
     and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...88