Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 290445
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
EVENING WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION WITH
UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH RECORD LOW VALUES IN SOME AREAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
LIFT OUT...AS THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FINALLY
BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ARRIVE
IN THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT AND RAIN
CHANCES OVER NORTH MS. THIS REGION WILL NEARER MODIFIED AND
ELEVATED GULF MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40 THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ANY CASE...CLOUD
COVER APPEARS A GOOD BET OVER THE NORTH...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION. GFS MOS...WHICH HAS SHOWN A WARM DAYTIME BIAS
MOST OF THE SUMMER...SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY ON THURSDAY. AS WITH MOST DAYTIME PERIODS...HAVE
UNDERCUT GFS MOS BUY 2 TO 3 DEGREES ON THURSDAY...MEANING SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE 80 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LATE WEEK PERIODS SHOULD EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT WARM UP...WITH
BETTER POSSIBILITY OF STRONG EARLY AUGUST SUNSHINE. DIFFERENTIAL
SURFACE HEATING AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS EACH DAY. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE SOUTH
OF I40...WITH BEST LIFT EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR. LIGHT NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT....INCREASING TO
7-9KTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING...TEHN DIMINISHING AGAIN LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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