Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 271719
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1219 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS AND ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL AND -20C HEIGHTS ARE 3-4K FEET LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE.
ADDITIONALLY...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE AN ISSUE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO WARM AT AREAS WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING...BUT ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WOULD RESULT IN A QUICK
3-5 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
MORNING PLACES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FIRST LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE SECOND ONE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS.
AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE 08Z HRRR INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY. SHORT TERM
TRENDS SUGGEST OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS CLUSTERING WITH THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. AS OF THIS MORNING CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AT OR ABOVE 1.8 INCHES.

00Z MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PREDOMINANT
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WOULD BE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING
REACHED.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

SITES EXPECTED TO SEE PLENTY OF WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION INITIALLY AND THEN LOWER CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
TUP AND MKL WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR VSBY. THIS EVENING SKIES WILL
CLEAR ALLOWING FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP. WORST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MKL WITH BORDER LINE VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY
SUNRISE. HOPEFUL THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
6-10 KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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