Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 292044
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
344 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WAS JUST EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
JACKSON TN AREA.

THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECEIVE RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL...BUT ACCOMPANIED DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS DRIER AIR
WAS EVIDENT ON THE 3PM SURFACE MAP... WITH 50S DEWPOINTS COMMON
OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MIDSOUTH FOR SEVERAL DAYS... GRADUALLY MOISTENING FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT WEAK AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...AN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FURTHER
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PART OF OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE
DAYTIME TEMPS AGAIN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE CLOUD BE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED VCTS AT BOTH KMKL AND KTUP
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
TLSJR

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-OBION-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-DECATUR-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HENDERSON-HENRY-MCNAIRY-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

$$


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