Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 180812

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
312 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a 1030 MB ridge
of high pressure over West Virginia. This is bringing another
night of rain free weather to the Lower Mississippi Valley. As of
3 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 40s
across most locations.

Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the
Mid-South today through Friday resulting in continued rain free
weather across the forecast area. Highs each day will be in the
70s and approaching 80 degrees towards the upcoming weekend.
Meanwhile, lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s through Thursday

Models indicate surface and upper level ridging will move east
with southwest flow aloft returning to the region. A few showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday mainly west of the
Mississippi River. A positively tilted upper level trough over
the Rockies is anticipated to dig south into the Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Saturday night into Sunday. This will push a
cold front into the region on Sunday along with increased chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, long term model run
to run consistency is poor for Sunday night into Monday. GFS/ECMWF
solutions have been flipping back and forth on the development or
lack thereof of an upper level low at the base of the upper level
trough over the region. Kept low end rain chances in forecast for
continuity despite low confidence. High pressure along with
cooler temperatures are anticipated for the remainder of the long
term forecast next week.



06Z TAFs

Aside from some patchy fog at KMKL expect VFR conds through the
period. Light or calm winds overnight becoming south at 7-10 kts
Wednesday morning.




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