Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 270915
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
415 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GOES IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
TX/NM BORDER. A LINEAR MCS EXTENDED FROM EAST TX INTO THE TX
COASTAL PLAIN...PROPAGATING EAST/SOUTHEAST. KLZK RADAR SHOWED AND
EAST/WEST BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AR... INTO WEST
CENTRAL MS. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE TX MCS WERE
FLOWING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TODAY SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AR/NORTHWEST
MS DELTA THIS MORNING...AIDED BY A WEAK MCV EJECTING EASTWARD OUT
OF THE ARKLATEX. ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES OR GETS LOST UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE...RAIN CHANCES NEAR AND THE SOUTHWEST
OF MEMPHIS SHOULD WANE TOWARD MIDDAY. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUDS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL
ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE TONIGHT...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
SPREADS INTO THE MIDSOUTH. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE CLOSED LOW...RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WEST OF THE MS RIVER...AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
THE TN RIVER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
HIGH NORTH OF I40 THROUGH THE EVENT...MAINLY UNDER 1 INCH...WHILE
UP TO 1.5 INCH PW VALUES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHEAST MS.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A NORTHERN BRANCH
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...
BEHIND THE EXITING SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BEFORE THE NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER
LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AT KMKL THAT COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR OR
LOWER. WINDS TONIGHT NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KTS. AFTER 28/00Z...WINDS NE 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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