Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

313
FXUS64 KMEG 141625
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1025 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...

AT 10 AM AROUND THE REGION TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. SURFACE WINDS WERE
PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST. A MIXTURE OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WAS ONGOING PRIMARILY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT FROZEN AND FREEZING
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE. DUE TO CONCERNS OF HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS HAVE
EXTENDED THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 15/00Z.

REMOVED ANY SNOW AMOUNTS OVER A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM
THE GRIDS AS THE AREAS WHERE SNOW WAS FAVORED HAVE ALREADY
INDICATED A DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT AND A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE ADVISORY ALSO MIRRORS THIS REMOVAL OF SNOW
AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY... TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVERALL.

ZDM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER
30S. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO FAR EAST TEXAS. A
SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS
THIS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FORM
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO FALL TODAY. DEPENDING ON THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION SOME
SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THAT THESE
AREAS COULD SEE UP TO .1 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN...UP TO .25 INCH OF
SLEET OR UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
WEAKLEY AND HENRY COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE RAIN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN THE AREAS THAT WILL BE
EXPERIENCING WINTER PRECIPITATION TODAY. RAINFALL COULD BECOME A
LITTLE HEAVIER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH WITH LOWS MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
BY MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA KEEPING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
WITH RAIN ENDING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A COLD FRONT
WILL THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF RAIN AHEAD OF IT.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

SITES WILL START OFF VFR THIS PERIOD AND END UP LIFR/IFR. LIGHT
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY AT JBR BEFORE NOON.
PRECIPITATION AT ALL SITES WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH GOOD VSBY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHER RAIN RATES AND
LOWER VSBY DURING THE LATTER HALF. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE TUP.
EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST/SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MEM AND MKL AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH. JBR TO
WILL SEE WINDS BACK NORTHEAST...WHILE TUP REMAINS SOUTHERLY.

JAB


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-RANDOLPH.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON
     TN-CARROLL-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-GIBSON-HENDERSON-HENRY-
     LAKE-MADISON-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.