Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 011720
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT EVERY OBSERVATION STATION
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST. AS OF 10AM... TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR 80 DEGREES... A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT... I
RAISED HIGHS BY 1 DEGREE AREA WIDE. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WITHIN AN AIRMASS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND NAM AGREE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY SO POPS WERE RAISED IN NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT.

JMP3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO TURN AROUND
TO THE SOUTH. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BEGIN POPPING ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 3-5 PM. MEANWHILE...A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED BACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO OUTRACE THE FRONT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION
THE LINE THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN. EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 8-10PM. THE LINE WILL ROUGHLY BE
LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 12-2 AM. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2200 J/KG. THE NAM IS SHOWING EVEN HIGHER CAPE
VALUES. HOWEVER...THE MODEL DOES NOT SHOW ANY WAA SHOWERS
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING LIKE THE GFS. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THURSDAY MORNING AND IF WAA SHOWERS DO OCCUR LIKE THE GFS
IS INDICATING...THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AT LEAST INITIALLY.
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT AIRMASS TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS BUT BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL COME FROM THE SQUALL LINE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK EASTWARD TO
A LINE STRETCHING FROM PARIS...TO BOLIVAR...TO OXFORD. WITH LATEST
MODELS INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH SQUALL
LINE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT RISK IN HWO AS IS...COVERING EASTERN ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. SQUALL LINE WILL BEGIN WEAKENING FROM
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECT BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT JBR BETWEEN 02/13-17Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SE/S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-11 KTS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH VCSH POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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