Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 281449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
949 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

An upper-level cyclone continues to spin over the Great Lakes this
morning with northwesterly flow aloft across the Mid-South. A lobe
of vorticity is diving southeast on the backside of this low,
driving a cold front toward the CWA. As of 9 AM, this front was
located from near Springfield, to Scott AFB, to Terre Haute, which
may be slightly ahead of schedule. This front is forecast to move
into the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, and northwest TN after 1 PM,
traversing the remainder of the CWA later this afternoon and

West to southwest winds will increase to 10-15 mph ahead of the
front, shifting to the northwest in its wake. Forecast
temperatures today looked reasonable, with highs ranging from the
upper 70s in the north to the low/mid 80s in the south. A few
showers will be possible this afternoon across portions of TN,
mainly affecting the area around Paris and Kentucky Lake.
Otherwise, dry weather is anticipated across the CWA. Cloud cover
was increase over the northeast portion of the forecast area this
afternoon, with only minor changes to the remaining forecast



PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...Water Vapor Satellite trends this morning place an
upper level low centered near Green Bay, Wisconsin. Meanwhile, at
the surface a cold front is located from Lower Michigan back
through Central Illinois and Southern Iowa. Clear skies have
prevailed overnight with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT
ranging from the upper 40s to lower/middle 50s across much of the
Mid- South.

Short term models remain in fairly decent agreement overall as an
upper level low over Northern Lake Michigan begins to gradually drop
south towards the Ohio Valley. The aforementioned cold front
located across the Upper Midwest will drop south into the Lower
Mississippi Valley later this afternoon into tonight. Highs this
afternoon will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s north of
I-40 and lower to perhaps middle 80s south. Isolated rain showers
are possible across far Northwest Tennessee near the Tennessee
River. Otherwise, the best rain chances should remain mostly
upstream of the forecast area.

A reinforcement of cool Canadian air will filter in behind this
cold front with lows tonight dropping back into the 50s. The upper
level low is anticipated to be located over portions of Kentucky
and the Tennessee Valley Thursday and Friday. This will bring
a potential for isolated to scattered rain showers to portions of
the Mid-South, especially across Northwest Tennessee and areas
near the Tennessee River as shortwave troughs rotate around this
upper level low. Cloud cover should result in below normal
temperatures across the above mentioned area during this period.

Long term models this morning indicate this upper level low will
gradually migrate northeast towards the Eastern Great Lakes by the
end of the upcoming weekend as an upper level ridge in the Rockies
moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and thunderstorm
chances may return towards the middle of next week as and upper
level trough and associated cold front move through the region.



12Z TAFs

VFR to prevail through the period. A cold front will drop through
the Midsouth terminals this afternoon, with both prefrontal and
postfrontal winds occasionally gusty. MEM north wind component
should diminish below 7KT for the overnight outbound push.



.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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