Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 270843

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
343 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Models in general agreement on the weather pattern for this week.
We start out with an upper high moving to the west and allowing
northwest flow to dominate the pattern for the rest of the week.
The upper high moving to the west and the northwest flow aloft
will push a surface high pressure system into the area by mid-
week. On the forward edge of the high pressure system is a cold
front which will slowly travel south across the Mid-South today
into Tuesday.

The frontal system should kickoff thunderstorms today. Expect more
thunderstorms this afternoon, however, a few may pop-up this
morning as the atmosphere is unstable and with the lift from the
front there will not be a problem initiating convection. Only a
marginal risk of severe winds with these thunderstorms. Expecting
generally 30 to 50 mph gusts with some of the thunderstorms. Even
with the precipitable water values above the 75% average for this
time of year, think the storms will continue to move along the
front and the front will continue to move--so unless a storm
anchors in place--flooding is not a major concern.

On Tuesday, expect the front to be south of Memphis and
Interstate-40. So the southern half of forecast area may still see
thunderstorms on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Then drier
continues as a surface high builds into the area. Until the
weekend, when another frontal system moves into the area. Models
not in agreement on location or timing of this frontal system.

Temperatures today will be cooler today and the rest of the week,
with highs typically in the 80s to low 90s. Some of the southern
areas in the Mid-South may see heat index values around 100 as
the dew points will remain high today (in the mid- 70s), however,
as the front moves south the dew points will begin to drop and by
mid-week the northern areas will have dew points in the 50s.
Southern areas will have dew points in the 60s.



06z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions should prevail through Monday morning with isolated
convection diminishing after 08z. Convective cloud blowoff may
continue to spread across the area through the night. Winds
should remain light through sunrise.

Light west winds should develop Monday morning ahead of a slow
moving cold front approaching from the north. Isolated convection
will be possible ahead of this front in the morning...becoming
more concentrated in coverage by late morning into Monday
afternoon. Tempos for convection have been added along with MVFR
cigs/vsbys at all sites. Gusty winds will be be possible in any
convection otherwise expect winds to become northerly behind the
frontal passage/convective outflow Monday afternoon.

Convection should linger into Monday evening at KMEM and KTUP with
a return to dry conditions at KJBR and KMKL. VFR conditions should
prevail outside of thunderstorms. Light northeast winds can be
expected Monday evening.



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