Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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395
FXUS64 KMEG 050023
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
623 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

Skies are cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with
temperatures in the 40s. Some patches of light rain are moving
across portions of west Tennessee near the Tennessee River and
over parts of northeast Mississippi.

Weak high pressure is expected to briefly build into the region
tonight. This will help move what little rain remain down into far
southern sections of the forecast area. Clouds will thin out some
overnight allowing some patchy area of fog to develop by sunrise.
Temperatures will be on the chilly side with lows Monday morning
in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

On Monday, low pressure is expected to develop over the Texas Gulf
coast and will track northeast reaching southwest Louisiana by
Monday evening. As the low approaches the region, showers and
isolated thunderstorms will move into the forecast area. Temperatures
will be a little warmer on Monday with highs from the mid 40s to
the mid 50s. The low will move through Mississippi and reach
middle Tennessee by Tuesday morning. This will mean more showers
and isolated thunderstorms will move through the forecast area
Monday night. As the surface low moves out of the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday rain will be ending during the morning hours. Temperatures
will be a little warmer on Tuesday with highs in the low to mid
50s.

High pressure briefly builds into the region for Tuesday afternoon
and evening bringing dry weather and seasonable temperatures. A
cold front will move through the forecast area on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Some showers are expected to develop ahead of the
front with some rain also possible just behind the front. Colder
air will start to filter in the region behind the front Wednesday
night with rain or snow possible over northern sections of the
forecast area late Wednesday night.

High pressure will build into the region by Thursday morning with
precipitation ending. Much colder air will continue to move into
the region on Thursday night with some locations seeing lows
Friday morning in the teens. Dry and cold weather will continue
for Friday and Saturday as well. By Saturday night, a warm front
will approach the region from the south. This will mean more rain
will be possible across the forecast area for Saturday night and
next Sunday.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds have shifted to the NW as a weak surface low tracks east of
the area along the Gulf Coast. Low clouds remain over the area. Weak
high pressure will build in tonight. Concern tonight is whether
the low deck breaks up over KJBR and KMEM resulting in fog and
additional low cigs later tonight. For now decided to go with LIFR
conds at KMEM/KJBR/KMKL after 06z. Best chance for fog will be at
KMEM/KJBR though cirrus may mitigate. Expect conds to gradually
improve to mvfr Monday with rain moving back in during the
afternoon.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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