Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 190525
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.UPDATE DISCUSSION

A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING AS WEAK NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES. THE FLOW ABOVE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING MOISTURE
OVER THE NEAR SURFACE COLD STABLE LAYER. THIS MAY HELP TO ENHANCE
SOME ADVECTION FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS...4-6SM...AND NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE
FOG AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD ALSO PERSIST OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE FIRST UPPER
SYSTEM IS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION. WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES.

PRECIP FROM SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND LOW-LEVEL
TEMP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FALLING AS ALL RAIN. MAY
SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS/SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON WEDNESDAY UNDER SW EDGE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. FLAT UPPER RIDGING BECOMES BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED BEFORE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO DID NOT STRAY
FAR. STEADY/SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY.

GW/CJC

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

LOWER CIGS AND FOG HAVE YET TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AR/WEST
TN...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF LOWER CIGS AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TO ~1000FT AT BOTH JBR AND MEM OVERNIGHT
WITH AT LEAST SOME VISBY REDUCTION DUE TO FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. CIGS LIFT A BIT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
REGION BEGINNING AROUND 21Z TOMORROW AT TUP AND MEM. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXISTS AT TUP WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST 04Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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