Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 212309
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
509 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS WAS PRODUCING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
THE MIDSOUTH...WHILE A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUDS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS PLACES A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WITH RIDGING OCCURRING OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY TRANSITS TO THE EAST WHILE
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION...WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S
FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE SOME REGIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI REACH THE
LOWER 70S. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP INTO THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW
TRANSITS THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL STILL
BE LIMITED...LYING OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI...SO A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME AREAS WITH PWAT AND QPF VALUES ON SUNDAY BOTH
IN EXCESS OF 1.00 INCH. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI MOST FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY NEXT WEEK BUT COOLER AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH HANGS OUT OVER THE REGION. A POTENT ARCTIC
HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY THANKSGIVING...WHICH WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS LIFTING NORTH ALONG WITH WARM FRONT. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL AT KMEM...KMKL AND KTUP THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN AT KJBR THROUGH 22/00Z...VFR THEREAFTER. EAST WINDS
AOB 8 KTS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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