Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 230512

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1112 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Updated to include 06Z Aviation Discussion.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 933 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

Winds remain gusty from the WSW this evening in the wake of
today`s Pacific cold front. Winds will continue to gradually
subside overnight as the gradient weakens but will remain strong
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed through Tuesday morning.
This will limit cooling somewhat, only allowing temperatures to
drop into the mid 30s in most areas. Moisture wrapping around the
mid- level cyclone will provide an area of clouds across the
region tonight as well, mainly over the northern half of the CWA.
Sky cover was increase for tonight and Tuesday morning.
Temperatures look to be on track with only minor tweaks made to
hourly wind and dewpoint parameters.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/


Currently...A 995 mb surface low is situated over Iowa this
afternoon. The associated cold front has pushed through most of
the area. A tight pressure gradient is resulting in gusty
southwest winds, especially over NE AR, the MO Bootheel and parts
of NW TN, where winds are gusting to 35 mph or more. A wind
advisory is in effect until 6 pm for those areas. Airmass behind
the front is of Pacific origin so no really cold weather in sight.
Temps this afternoon are mostly in the lower 60s.

Tonight through Thursday night...High pressure will gradually
build into the area. Breezy conditions will continue into
tomorrow as the pressure gradient remains fairly tight.
Temperatures will return to more normal levels with lows in the
30s tonight and highs in the mid 40s north to around 50 south
Tuesday afternoon. Clouds will move back into northern areas
tonight into Tuesday before leaving Tuesday evening. Near normal
temps will continue through Wednesday night and then warm some on
Thursday and Thursday night as the surface high moves off to the
east and winds turn southerly.

Friday into the weekend...A cold front will approach the area
late this week. A few showers are possible across Eastern
Arkansas as some overrunning starts to develop with increasing
chances for rain through Saturday night. 12z models vary widely
with the strength and timing so details are still being worked

Monday...Looks drier with near normal temperatures.



/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions expected through much of the period. Clouds
associated with an upper level low will gradually move into TAF
sites tonight and with a potential for MVFR conditions to develop
at JBR/MKL Tuesday morning. Gusty SW winds will diminish tonight
and increase to 11-14 kts with a few gusts to 18-20kts on Tuesday,
then winds becoming light by Tuesday evening.




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