177
FXUS64 KMEG 181540
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1040 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Latest GOES-16 Water Vapor/Visible satellite trends this morning
indicate a weakening MCV centered near Brighton, TN. KNQA/KGWX
WSR-88D radar trends show rain showers quickly diminishing over
eastern Arkansas and West Tennessee. Meanwhile, there has been an
increasing convective trend over portions of West Tennessee near
the Tennessee Rvier and northeast Mississippi.

Surface-based CAPE values are averaging around 1500 J/kg, 0-6 km
shear around 25 kts, and relatively poor lapse rates overall. A
strong thunderstorm or two is possible across this aforementioned
area through early afternoon with gusty winds, small hail, and
localized heavy rainfall. Confidence in severe thunderstorm
potential remains on the low end at this time. Some adjustments
will be made to rain chances to account for short-term trends.
Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape overall.

CJC

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue spreading across
the Mid-South through around sunset today. Patchy fog will remain
possible in mainly low-lying river areas through around sunrise this
morning. High pressure will build across the region Sunday morning
drying us out and warming us up to around 90 degrees heading into
the beginning of the workweek. Showers and thunderstorm return
Wednesday and through the weekend as multiple upper level
disturbances move over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Current temperatures are in the mid 60s to lower 70s with cloud
cover continuing to increase west to east. A few sites have begun to
fog with reduced visibilities as ample moisture, decent radiational
cooling, and mostly calm to light winds have spread across the Mid-
South. As we move closer to sunrise, fog coverage will become more
patchy as visibilities lower around 2SM. At this time, we are not
expecting a need for a Dense Fog Advisory, though we will be
monitoring very closely and will issue one if need be.

Current NQA radar indicates isolated showers and thunderstorms
slowly creeping across Northeast Arkansas and Northeast
Mississippi. As we move closer to sunrise and through the
afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread
as an upper low, currently centered over north-central Missouri,
and a few shortwaves track over the Mid-South. Gusty winds and
small hail will be possible with the movement of these
thunderstorms through today.

This upper low will quickly push east, past our area, by tomorrow
evening as high pressure begins to build in, drying us out and
warming us up. As high pressure settles over the Mid-South,
areawide temperatures will begin to warm near to slightly above 90
degrees giving us the first widespread 90+ degree day of the year
come Monday. As moisture increases over the Mid-South and our
next upper level system begins to move in Wednesday morning, we
will cool slightly back down into the 80s through the weekend.

As mentioned, our next system, an upper trough and surface low
tracking over the upper Great Lakes region and tandem cold front,
begins to move in Wednesday morning, increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances across the region. The synoptic and mesoscale
regions look unsettled Wednesday through the weekend. 30-60% PoPs
will remain in the forecast over this timeframe as uncertainty in
model guidance begins to increase late next week. The Storm
Prediction Center has has a large area just to our northwest
highlighted under a 15% chance for severe weather as the
aforementioned low pressure systems and tandem cold front track
east. Though not highlighted currently, Wednesday looks to be our
next possible severe weather threat day to look at, however, as
mentioned previously, uncertainty remains on the higher end.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue to impact the MEM
and JBR terminals through mid morning and linger near MKL and TUP
through early afternoon. Locally heavy rain will diminish
visibility and brief gusty winds are possible. Otherwise VFR
conditions should prevail tomorrow evening through the end of the
TAF cycle.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JDS